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Inflation Increases 2.5%, Setting Scene for Rate CutMarket Update, September 13th 2024 Takeaways Inflation stays under control: The Consumer Price Index increased 2.5% in August compared to the previous year, down from the 2.9% bump in July. The latest data indicates the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has reached a $14 million settlement with Emergent Technologies, resolving a dispute over 55 million Robinhood shares: The agreement avoids further legal action and allows Emergent to finalize its bankruptcy proceedings. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen a streak of daily net outflows, with nearly $1.2 billion withdrawn in just eight days: The downturn coincides with broader market volatility. The North Carolina Senate has passed a bill prohibiting state participation in any Federal Reserve-sponsored CBDC testing: The bill bans payments to the state using a CBDC. It passed despite a veto by Governor Roy Cooper. 🕰️ Topic of the Week: Understanding Interest Rates 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
NVDA rallied today with consistent strong volumeAfter a good cpi report NVDA rallied with momentum giving clues of more rallying to come Rally stayed under resistance level which indicates for a sustained rally Volume increased and remained steady during rally RSI broke above 50 going into bullish zone. Hopefully SMA will follow NVDA has started to form long term downward trend that began back in July. We need to watch out for this zone as a take profit area Overall we expect the rally to continue.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ratchet-mint
SPY breaks key resistance with momentumAfter the cpi report SPY went from selling off dramatically in the morning to turning around rallying with strong momentum and volume. CPI report brought a lot of volatility to the market today SPY started selling then turned around quickly to break resistance We note the increasing volume as the rally continues The final period did end with rather undecided candle giving a sense of pause to direction it may go tomorrow The strong volume on final period does indicate price exhaustion, we may experience pull back tomorrow. Multiple down beaten stocks from previous sell off trend are now experiencing a massive rally breaking their trend and reversing to the upside.
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
09/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the bottom of the daily downtrend channel. US CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) this week, as with big news events we can potentially see volatility, this will be the last US CPI before rate cuts begin in the US, in Europe rate cuts are forecast to begin on Thursday, predicted to drop from 4.25% to 3.65% according to invesing.com, a 60bps cut. Another major news event this week is the Trump v Harris Presidential debate. I'm not expecting a whole lot of crypto talk in this debate, if I'm being completely honest I can't see it being an adult debate about political policy at all. However, I do think it will have an effect on the markets one way or another, obviously Trump is the better outcome for crypto if he stays true to his plans set out during the Bitcoin conference compared to the plans for the Harris administration to tax un-realized gains which is not very pro-investment. Again, I'm not holding my breath for any information on crypto but it is a major news event all the same. So in conclusion this week is full of news events that could create volatility, with BTC at its current level nearer the bottom of the daily trend. It does feel like we're maybe coming to an end of the chop with monetary policy pivot taking place soon.
by ProR35
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Key stores of value over economic history: SP500 vs GoldWhen the pandemic shocked markets in 2020, the Fed quickly printed trillions of dollars (while purchasing bonds to support corporations and the government). As the U.S central bank’s balance sheet surged, so did the broad money supply in close parallel with stock markets and gold prices. Unlike the Fed’s intervention during the Great Financial Crisis — plus a similarly unprecedented fiscal expansion — consumer prices spiked at the fastest pace since the 1970’s. Since 2019 (and even as far back as 1971 when the U.S. broke the dollar’s tie to gold), both gold and especially the S&P 500 have been reliable “stores of value.” Since around 1970, both gold and the S&P 500 (which looks even more impressive accounting for dividends) are up nearly 7,000% versus a dollar designed to lose value every year. Granted there have also been several harrowing drawdowns for both the S&P 500 and gold. Meanwhile, consumer prices are up *only* 700% since the dollar lost its golden luster. If history is any guide… It leaves us with a simple framework for wealth preservation: If you work hard to earn $10,000, don’t let it decay under your metaphorical mattress for multiple decades thereafter. Gold and the S&P 500 have historically been reliable assets to preserve wealth. However, timing is greatly important as well.
SP:SPX
by MikeCoMacro
$DXY - Bottom Range Bound BreachedThe Dollar Index TVC:DXY has breached a pretty serious level ; the bottom range bound which has previously acted as strong support for TVC:DXY to bounce. Will this time be the same and this will result in a fake-out? Or will TVC:DXY headed lower, re-visiting pre-pandemic levels? Check out the previous released ideas linked below for more in depth information regarding our journey 'Decisive Move Around the Corner' (line chart) (candlesticks chart) TRADE SAFE NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research before partaking upon any trading activity based solely on this idea.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
Inflation Pulls Back Again, Building Case for September Rate CutTakeaways Inflation cools again: Consumer prices in the US increased just 2.9% in July compared to the previous year, the slowest mark in three years, according to the US Department of Labor. Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in odds to win the US presidential election on Polymarket: Harris's campaign has reached out to the crypto industry, but it's unclear where she stands on regulating digital assets. Three Arrows Capital’s liquidators have filed a $1.3 billion lawsuit against Terraform Labs: The suit, stemming from losses during the 2022 Terra network collapse, alleges market manipulation by Terraform. Tether hit back at a $2.4 billion lawsuit from Celsius Network, deeming it unfounded and asserting its compliance with prior agreements: The dispute revolves around the liquidation of bitcoin assets to offset Celsius's debt. US spot ETH ETFs experienced $4.9 million in net inflows on Monday, ending a three-day streak of outflows: Grayscale’s ETHE logged zero flows, while VanEck’s ETHV was the only ETF to report negative flows. Grayscale has launched a new fund investing in MakerDAO’s governance token (MKR): The token saw a price increase following the announcement, with the fund structured as a closed-end product available to accredited investors. Inflation Pulls Back Again, Building Case for September Rate Cut The Consumer Price Index increased just 2.9% year-over-year in the US in July, giving the Federal Reserve ample reason to cut the benchmark federal funds rate at their next meeting in September. The Fed uses CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, as a key gauge to measure inflationary pressures on the economy. They have held rates at 5.3% since July 2023, the highest mark in roughly two decades. Cryptocurrency prices had a muted reaction to the positive report Wednesday, with bitcoin and ether staying relatively flat. Both are widely viewed as “risk assets” that perform better when interest rates are lower. But bitcoin has faced continued selling pressure from defunct exchange Mt. Gox distributing billions in repayments to creditors. On Wednesday, a wallet associated with the US government sent almost $600 million bitcoin previously seized from Silk Road to a Coinbase Prime wallet. Despite the recent volatility, bitcoin and ethereum have had a positive 2024 so far, rising 28.8% and 8.1% year-to-date, respectively. 🖼️ Topic of the Week: NFTs and the Art Industry: A Cryptoart Revolution ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest. I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go. Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace. I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4