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EURUSD:Strong NFP but coming CPI may change directionDear Traders, Following a period of subdued inflation data, EURUSD recently breached the 1.09000 mark. However, Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report surpassed expectations, revealing over 272,000 jobs created compared to the anticipated 185,000. Consequently, EURUSD has retraced towards the key uptrend support around the 1.07800 level. While the NFP figures are significant, it's crucial to recognize that they are just one piece of the puzzle for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Another critical aspect will be the forthcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI). Should the CPI data indicate a softer inflationary trend, we anticipate further weakness in the USD, potentially propelling EURUSD upwards from the support zone at 1.07800. Conversely, if the CPI surprises with higher-than-expected inflation, we may witness a break in the EURUSD downtrend, possibly leading to new lows. Remember to trade cautiously and stay informed. Best regards, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
4
THE KOG REPORT - CPI/FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – CPI/FOMC This is our view for CPI/FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. In all honesty, we would prefer to let them move the markets today into the level they want, then look for a set up to get in on the retracement tomorrow. At the moment, due to CPI and FOMC being on the same day, it’s likely to be an extremely aggressive move. We’re going to put the KOG Report plan to one side for now, as the whipsaw can cause spikes and key levels turn to extreme levels and we’ve taken what we needed on gold for now. We have the range formed now and accumulation under way with sentiment standing at neutral. We have key level support below at the 2303-5 region, which if tapped could give a bounce upside, unless broken into the first key level 2335 which was on the KOG Report and then the extension of the move into the 2347-55 region. This is where there may be an opportunity to long into, or, on the flip capture the move downside into the immediate support levels, potentially even lower! If you look at the illustration on the chart with path, we have highlighted the extreme level above sitting at 2385-90, this for us is on the break and would be ideal. If they take it there, this is the level we want to watch and is sticking out to us as a potential curveball, so please be careful! On the flip, they take this down, we’ll sit back and wait, shorting with volume is a bad idea as the intermediate swings can go against you. So, we’ve highlighted the key levels below that have potential for a reaction in price. We’ve put this report together this time to show you what the market can be capable of if they really want to move it. The circles are our hotspots, together with our targets they will help us navigate the move. They will want to slip new traders up and get them trading with the candles, this is a recipe for disaster, on days like this quick money trades are not an option. It’s either above or below for us on this occasion, otherwise we’ll come back to gold tomorrow and make our move. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
A Bullish Outlook for BTCUSDIn the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, recent developments in global monetary policy have sparked renewed interest in the BTCUSD market. With the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent decision to trim interest rates and today's release of better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, coupled with ongoing speculation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), traders are eyeing long positions in Bitcoin (BTC) with a bullish outlook. Adding to the narrative, recent market dynamics reveal a pattern of range-bound trading in the BTCUSD market, with the $72,000 level serving as a key resistance level. As we anticipate a repetition of this pattern, informed traders are positioning themselves strategically to capitalize on potential price movements. Here's how traders are navigating these market conditions: Capitalizing on Central Bank Policies: The ECB's decision to lower interest rates underscores the prevailing sentiment of accommodative monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic growth. In response, traders are flocking to Bitcoin as a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflationary pressures, driving demand and upward price momentum. Interpreting CPI Data and Market Expectations: Today's release of CPI data, slightly below expectations but still indicative of moderate inflationary pressures, has provided clarity on economic conditions. With the Fed expected to follow the ECB's lead and implement rate cuts, traders are anticipating a favorable environment for Bitcoin investments, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies. Technical Analysis and Strategic Positioning: Building on recent market trends, traders are employing technical analysis to identify key support and resistance levels. With the $72,000 level emerging as a significant resistance barrier, traders are setting profit-taking targets (TP) at this level, anticipating a potential retracement or consolidation. For risk management purposes, a stop-loss (SL) level at $67,000 is being widely utilized to mitigate downside risk. Market Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish among long-term investors, driven by Bitcoin's growing adoption as a store of value and inflation hedge. Institutional interest, coupled with increasing retail participation, further validates Bitcoin's status as a viable investment asset, with the potential for substantial long-term gains. In conclusion, the convergence of central bank policies, economic data releases, and technical market analysis paints a compelling picture for traders seeking opportunities in the BTCUSD market. By leveraging strategic insights and risk management techniques, traders can position themselves to capitalize on potential price movements while navigating market volatility effectively. As always, traders are encouraged to conduct thorough research, stay informed of market developments, and adhere to disciplined trading strategies to achieve their financial objectives in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by exlux
GBPUSD: What Should We Expect from Today's CPI Release?Greetings Traders! What to Expect in Today's CPI Release At the moment, GBPUSD is showing a relationship with bullish order blocks. We observe that after buy stops (external range liquidity) have been taken, the market moves into bullish order blocks (internal range liquidity), and these order blocks are consistently supporting the price. This indicates that the current price action is being driven by bullish institutional order flow, which may continue further today. Key Observations: Bullish Momentum: Order Blocks Support: Price is supported by bullish order blocks, indicating strong bullish momentum. Targeting Buy Stops: The main liquidity draw is towards the buy stops at the high. There is minimal resistance in this direction due to the heavy downward moves during Friday's NFP release. Potential Bearish Shift: Market Shift: If there is a market shift towards the downside, or if the order flow from the bullish order blocks is broken, we may see a downward draw towards the sell stops. Cautious Approach: While the current bias is towards bullishness, any invalidation of this bias will lead to a reassessment of trading opportunities. Trading Strategy: Primary Focus: Anticipating upward movement towards buy stops based on current bullish order flow. Secondary Consideration: Monitoring for any signs of a bearish market shift and avoiding sell-side trades if the bullish bias is invalidated. Please conduct further analysis on your own to complement this overview and to make well-informed trading decisions. Kind Regards, The_Architect
Long
by The_Archi-tect
BTCUSD to reclaim highs and more?Highlighting the inverse relationship between the DXY (yellow line) and the BTCUSD. Potential weakness on the DXY tonight could see the BTCUSD continue its bounce from the support level of 66,000 (also formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) up toward the previous high of 72,000. If the price breaks above the resistance level, significant upside could be anticipated with the next target profit level around the 74,500 area
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBPUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)Considering the scenario that the CPI data is released higher and/or the FOMC presents a hawkish tone, this would mean that the US interest rates could stay high for longer. This would bring significant strength to the DXY which could see massive downside for the GBPUSD. However, the GBPUSD has developed a strong support along the 1.27 price level, formed by several swing points and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. In DXY strength, look for the GBPUSD to break the bullish trend line and the support level before anticipating further downside toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and support area of 1.25
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)The EURUSD has found support along the 1.0720 price level (with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline forming a confluence) If the DXY does weaken with the news tonight, the EURUSD could bounce strongly from the support level to trade higher toward the resistance level of 1.09 (moving similarly to the price action on the 9th of May) A trigger level for further upside potential would be a break of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USDCAD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024. With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower. A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing level at 1.3735. However, the downside is likely to be limited at the 1.3590 price level, due to the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the shorter and longer term move forming a confluence with the bullish trendline around the support area.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
CPI & FOMC JUNE 12th Massive day for BTC, crypto and the broader markets as CPI and FOMC take place in a time where BTC has taken a dive back towards the range MIDPOINT. Both CPI & FOMC are forecast to be non movers, with 3.4% and 5.5% respectively. Last month CPI was the catalyst for the move from 0.25 to range high, however some of that hard work has been undone in recent days. I would like to see the same kind of move but this time from the MIDPOINT which often provides a better starting point to a move. What we don't want to see if BTC is to keep bullish HTF momentum is lingering around the midpoint level with a view to target range lows yet again. Buyers need to come in fast before momentum is lost. With sentiment so low but price constantly knocking at the door of ATH, ETF's being approved leading to institutional investment, mining rewards halved and a US election on the way this year. Big things are about to happen in the world of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is the one leading the charge as it so often does. Be greedy when others are fearful springs to mind. There is definitely fear in the market and its participants, The chart once you zoom out does not give me reason to be fearful just yet, this is a Bullrun and dips like these can be turned into wins.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
$BTC price hours before FEDAfter forming Wyckoff's distribution pattern, #bitcoin price lost the trend support and now likely to test the trendline resistance zone (formerly support). There' ll be 2 powerful technical analysis scenario: 1- This dump to 66 - 67K will be remembered just a deviation, CPI and inflation rate will be positive and #btc will reclaim the trendline. So, distribution pattern will be longed or even invalidated later. Reclaiming 69.3K will be very important. 2- #btcusdt will have a bearish retest, price declination will make the distribution pattern fully play out and #btcusdt discover a price deeper low. Not financial advice. DYOR.
by naphyse
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: I last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching that 2340 extension level for a move upside in the early part of the week, and if achieved we would be looking to short the market back down initially into the 2310 level which is where we felt the RIP will come from. We had a little stretch into 2355 but got the move we wanted for the trade and then the bounce. On the way up we also took the long in Camelot giving us a fantastic start to the week. During the week we updated traders with the plan to go long into that higher regions and gave them a target level of 2370 which was achieved, in Camelot we had 2385, which was hit on the nose, gave us a TAP AND BOUNCE short trade, and the rest is history, what a move and trades on Gold last week giving us another record breaking capture. Well done to our team for their hard work not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse, with Oil also giving us a lovely upside trade. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’ll start by saying we have FOMC and Cpi this week on the same day, so please trade carefully and expect there to be more aggressive price action across the markets. We have some key levels here on gold sitting below at 2380-75 which we feel are reasonable for attack and as shown on the chart, if held we feel there is an opportunity to long the market back up into 2310 and above that 2325 regions with extension of the move into 2330. That would be the ideal move for us, and if we see resistance with a clean set up in that resistance level, we’ll be hunting a short again to take this a lower. PLEASE NOTE – If they break below that level early session, the long trade will come from lower down in the 2250-55 region, which is a level to watch for this week! KOG's bias for the week: Bearish below 2335 with targets below 2385 and below that 2373 Bullish on break of 2335 with targets above 2355 and above that 2389 In summary: Price goes up, we’ll trade it level to level, expecting ranging and choppy market conditions, looking for the higher resistance levels. Higher resistance levels, we’ll be looking for the short trade if it presents itself. Price goes down, we’ll look for support to hold, a clean reversal and we’ll look to long. Nice and simple, we’re looking for a few decent trades on Gold this week due to FOMC and Cpi. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
14
Strifor || USDCHF-29/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For the Swiss franc , the focus is on the level of 0.91424, from which buy-deal is expected, and at the same time the medium-term strengthening of the US dollar. The context for a long position has now been formed and one can look for an entry point. The best option would be to go long through a breakout, as shown in the chart. Scenario №1 and Scenario №2 in this case are precisely a long trade through a breakout. The growth target is fixed at the level of 0.92160. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Is Bitcoin a leading indicator of inflation?INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin is regarded (in some circles) as both a store of value and an inflation hedge. But what if Bitcoin is a leading indicator of inflation? In the chart shown, we can see the various Bitcoin peaks over the years preceding local peaks in US CPI (orange). The US interest rate is in blue. The last 4 peaks in US CPI YoY have occurred between 6.4 and 8.5 months after a peak in Bitcoin's price. Specifically: June 2016 high - 37 weeks (8.5 months) later at 2.7% December 2017 high - 28 weeks (6.4 months) later at 2.9% June 2019 high - 31 weeks (7.1 months later) at 2.5% November 2021 high - 33 weeks later (7.6 months later) at 9.1% It's also worth noting that the sequence of highs is the same; both BTC and CPI have a lower high, a higher high, lower high, then higher high. The peaks in 2011 and 2013 coincided with CPI highs 15 and 26 weeks later, but 2016/2017 was the time when crypto first entered the public's awareness. So why does this happen? Do Bitcoin whales buying lambos stimulate inflation? I'm joking, but I genuinely don't know, and I hope someone can explain lol. I've wondered if it's a case of correlation in that rising inflation is usually a sign of easy financial conditions—the ideal conditions for a risk asset like BTC to pump—with Bitcoin being the first to benefit as the ultimate risk asset (at least in the world of mainstream finance). I'm not sure though. The most concerning thing is the implication. We recently just made another all-time high in Bitcoin, but CPI sits at 3.4% at the time of writing, having moved sideways for almost a year now. As for whether this is a crazy coincidence, or me reaching to an astronomical degree, I don't know. The average period of time over these last 4 periods is 32 weeks, or around October/November time. The only catalysts I see are the US government spending money like it's going out of fashion and rising commodity prices. I'll also note that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with lows in inflation. Personal opinion on inflation: US inflation is stalling, rising, and falling across different measures. Producer prices, services inflation, annual PCE, and some core measures are tilting up. The only real decline recently has been core CPI. It's also interesting to note that 1 and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations are 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Multiple Fed officials have been hawkish lately: Fed's Barr: Q1 inflation was disappointing, it did not provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy. Fed's Mester: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Fed's Bostic: It would not surprise me if it took longer to get to 2% inflation in the US than elsewhere. Given that we've reached a peak in interest rates (for the time being) but inflation has been moving sideways for around a year now, something has to change. It could be argued that monetary policy still needs time to work, but that doesn't really mesh with measures of inflation stalling or rising over the past year. Wouldn't the lag effect continue working to drive inflation lower? Likewise, why would the US economy be growing as fast as it is? One or more of three things will need to change: inflation, unemployment, or interest rates. Unemployment is at 3.9%, low by historical standards but rising since early 2022. Inflation, especially with what we've seen here, may also be on the rise soon. If the main lever the Fed has is monetary policy, it faces a dilemma. The data doesn't support a rate cut right now, while unemployment is rising slowly. If inflation begins to rise again, it may need to hike interest rates—not ideal when Joe desperately needs one for the upcoming election. This scenario of high inflation and high unemployment—stagflation—is what JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been warning of : 'It’s a warning Dimon has issued before, previously saying he fears America is headed for a repeat of the 1970s when everything “felt great” and then quickly about-turned to a period of high unemployment and inflation paired with low demand, also known as “stagflation.” Appearing at AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference on Wednesday, Dimon said he simply can’t see how the past five years of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could result in anything other than this scenario. As it stands, the US dollar looks ready to surge higher and clear 2023 highs: While SPY and BTC, adjusted for inflation (CPI figure taken from first day of trading), sit below their 2021 highs: I am aware that the human tendency to look for patterns and confirmation bias may be clouding my judgement. However, in my view, the market is severely underestimating the risk of higher inflation and a potential interest rate hike, which I believe will drive the dollar higher throughout the rest of 2024. According to the Bitcoin chart, another wave of inflation could be back above 7%+. I personally find that hard to imagine, but second round effects in the 1970s saw inflation shoot past its previous peak. Deutsche Bank has drawn parallels with the 1970s . Long-term views: Long USD, Oil Short risk assets (equities, crypto) Unsure on gold and silver but skewed lower For these views to be truly validated, I would like to see: TVC:DXY above 105.75 NYMEX:CL1! above 84 AMEX:SPY below 494 NASDAQ:QQQ below 414 INDEX:BTCUSD below 56,500 This is not financial advice, nor a recommendation. I wrote this to bring attention to something strange I'd found, and strongly encourage you to do your own research. Thank you for reading.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by pasojov
23
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Based on the results of last week, it can be noted that the market remained at the same levels and there were no significant changes. However, at the same time, such dynamics showed the stability of the US dollar's competitors, which indicates a likely short-term strengthening of these instruments. And of course, the EURUSD currency pair is one of the most promising from this point of view. Especially at the beginning of this week, the euro is seen strengthening towards the level of 1.90000 . The most likely scenario №1 , which can be found on the chart, indicates an increase to the maximum from current prices. This scenario is a higher priority, and it is better to enter with small stop losses and, if something happens, simply open a new deal. Scenario №2 is a plan B, but is extremely unpalatable for buyers. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
EUR/USD steady as German Business Climate unchangedThe euro is drifting on Monday. EUR/USD is down 0.05%, trading at 1.0849 in the North American session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for Memorial Day, which will likely mean a quiet day for the US dollar. In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate stagnated in May and was steady at 89.3. This unchanged from the downwardly revised 89.3 in April and short of the market estimate of 90.4. The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, has struggled although they have been signs of recovery. GDP grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2023. The ECB meets on June 6th and its credibility is on the line if it doesn’t deliver a rate cut which would be the first since March 2016. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. This sounded like a strong endorsement of a rate cut next week. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also signaled that a rate cut was coming in June, dismissing concerns over wage growth, which rose from 4.5% to 4.7%. Nagel stressed that a June cut did not signal the start of a series of cuts, as ECB decisions will depend on incoming data. The eurozone releases the May inflation report on Friday, which isn’t expected to change expectations of a June rate cut. CPI fell to 2.4% y/y in April and is expected to tick higher to 2.5% in May. EUR/USD has weak support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806 There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925
by OANDA
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The end of the previous trading week was not in favor of the US dollar , which we were preparing for and talking about during the previous week. The beginning of this week will most likely maintain this bearish sentiment for the US dollar and a short-term strengthening is expected for its main competitors, at a minimum. Against this background, for the euro we expect a re-test of the resistance area at the level of 1.09000. Most likely, the instrument will move to this resistance area as much as possible from the closing prices of the previous week (scenario №1) . If the American currency strengthens, a long position will be considered at the nearest support at 1.08000 (scenario №2). Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Policy Divergence: BoC and RBNZ Take Opposing PathsGreetings Traders, In today's trading session, our focus is on NZDCAD, where we see a promising buying opportunity emerging around the 0.83500 zone. NZDCAD has been traversing a downtrend but is currently undergoing a correction phase, drawing nearer to the retrace area near the 0.83500 support and resistance zone. Adding depth to our analysis, recent fundamental developments are worth noting. Just yesterday, the Canadian CPI figures came in softer than anticipated. Meanwhile, during the night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued some notably hawkish guidance. This sets an interesting stage: while the Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to initiate rate cuts come June, the RBNZ appears to be steering clear of such measures for the time being. This subtle policy divergence introduces a compelling dynamic that suggests NZDCAD may continue its upward trajectory. In summary, the confluence of technical retracement and fundamental policy disparities presents an opportune moment for traders to consider a bullish stance on NZDCAD.
Long
by JoeChampion
DOGE MONTHLY BREAKOUT? PLUS INV HEAD AND SHOULDERSObserved massive rally after the effects of the CPI report that surge BTC price past 6% and followed by other major coins. Now, I will tackle the possible BINANCE:DOGEUSDT breakout after the rally on the almost 2-month diagonal resistance trendline along with an inverse head and shoulders, a bullish pattern since the coin is on the downtrend that can be a sign of trend reversal for the coin. Other details for the setup and the approach for DOGE will be discussed in the idea threads below. Stay tuned!
Long
by Habadoo