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SPY Daily - Rising WedgeTreading lightly here as the SPY looks to be right at the end of a bearish rising wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave heading into a major week economically speaking. On Wednesday we have retail sales numbers, core CPI, and Core CPI YOY coming out, followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Will be watching closely, some support levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime, bearish and hedged- (Original Chart Attached Below) - Rising Wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave - Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI - Sitting right on its 50-Day SMA - Bearish ABCD Elliot Wave
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
Capitec Vuvuzela with bullish bias & strong fundaments to R2,485Capitec has been in this Broadening Pattern (Vuvuzela) formation since November 2023. It breaks into higher highs and lower lows. But the overall momentum and trend channel is up. It will continue trading in this range until we get a breakout of the resistance or support. My bet is it will first trade to the top of the range at R2,485.92. Capitec has always been the outlier compared to the other banks with very little correlation. WHen it does well, it runs up regadless what the bigger banks are doing. Also fundamentally, it doesn't seem to follow suit with the Big 5. Firstly, Capitec announced a substantial 15% growth in headline earnings, which reached R9.7 billion. This increase was driven by growth across various sectors of the bank, including a notable 124% profit surge in its business banking sector and a significant increase in net lending, investment, and insurance income​ Also, Capitec has been actively investing in innovative digital solutions and client rewards programs, which have contributed to its strong performance. They introduced a variety of digital payment solutions like Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay with zero transaction fees, as well as their own secure online payment tool, Capitec Pay. So ye, big up to an innovative unclipped wings bank like Capitec.
JSE:CPILong
by Timonrosso
GBP/USD Outlook: Waiting for CPI Hello traders, As we approach tomorrow's release of CPI data for both GBP and EUR, it's likely that the markets will adopt a wait-and-see approach until then. Considering the longer-term perspective, GBP appears to be oversold within a bearish channel. As such, it's advisable to avoid short-term trades with high risk exposure. Keep an eye on the yellow trend line, as a break above it could present opportunities for long trades. Trading Scenarios: The UK CPI is estimated to be around 3.1%. Any bullish surprise, particularly between 3.2% to 3.3%, may offer a favorable zone around 1.2482 for shorting the pair. However, a figure exceeding 3.5% could signal a potential change in trend, prompting us to seek technical reasons to long the pair. Conversely, any bearish surprise has the potential to breach key levels and invalidate the bearish channel. In such a scenario, I'll promptly announce new scenarios. In the absence of any surprises, it's prudent to explore zones closer to the current price for shorting opportunities. Stay informed and remain adaptable to evolving market conditions. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease) Eurozone Headline CPI: MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3% YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart) Eurozone Core CPI: MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2% YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below.
ECONOMICS:EUCIR
by PukaCharts
1
GBP/USD: CPI Announced at 3.2%Traders, NOTE Don't forget about LTF confirmations, The CPI data has been announced at 3.2%, marking a 0.1% surprise. This development adds a layer of significance to the current market dynamics. In addition to the previously highlighted zones, such as the area around 1.246, it's essential to keep an eye on the EMA50. This moving average could serve as another valuable level to consider for shorting opportunities. As always, remain vigilant and adaptable in your trading strategies, especially in response to unexpected data releases like this one. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
CPI NEWS ANALYSIS MOVE ✅✅traders Gold price is ready to fly My dear subscribers My technical analysis is for Gold below The price is coming around a solid key Level 2346 Bis_ Bullish Gold market price now 2346 Support zone. 2335 1st Target 2400 2nd Target 2430 Technical indicators Pivot point low anticipates a potential price reversal Super trend shows a clear buy giving a Perfect indicators convergence perfect Indicators convergence Give us like and comments support us
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJoseph_7
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: In the KOG report on Sunday we gave the extension levels of 2365 and 2372 as bullish targets which as we can see we're extending in to and completed one of them. Yesterday we said unless we broke below the bias level we were likely to take liquidity from higher again, so put caution on the short trades. Again, the opportunity presented itself to long the market which we gladly took for a level to level red box trade adding to the other pairs that hit TP's making this one of the biggest Months so far in terms of completed targets and pip capture in Camelot. For that reason, we're going to take it easy now and wait for CPI unless a clean opportunity arises. So, what now? For the remainder of the session and the Asian session we have resistance now 2350-55 which if we manage to hold could give us the potential swing down into the support levels 2330 and below that our bias level 2320! Break above, and we have added a new level for everyone as the potential target region before another expected RIP. We've left the original chart illustration from Sunday's KOG Report as we did say there will be an extension of the move, so for now we'll stick with it unless anything changes tomorrow. Please remember, pre-event price action will entail choppy market movement and conflicting patterns as well as the potential small range forming. Please be cautious on your trading! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Despite Friday's strong labor market data, the US dollar retains sell-priority, which means buy-priority for most of the American currency's main competitors. The euro is at the top of this list to buy against the US dollar . Here, for most of this week, we highlight two scenarios, and the more likely scenario №1 assumes an increase to the maximum from current prices. The growth target is located at the level of 1.09000 , where we also set the target for scenario №2 , which involves buying from the support area of 1.08000 . Most likely, updating the previous week’s high is the key task of buyers, after which there is a high probability of the start of a deeper corrective local movement towards the level of 1.08000 and below. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-10/04/2024Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: The British currency perfectly worked out the scenario that we set at the beginning of the week, and all long trades were closed. At the moment, short-term strengthening is expected for the instrument, including, most likely, during the US CPI . However, just like the euro , a fall is expected here in the longer term. Particular attention will be focused on the level of 1.27000 after the publication of inflation data in the United States. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-10/04/2024Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: According to the settings that we outlined at the beginning of the week, we continue to hold the euro long, but note that most of the profit has already been recorded, and the trade has been moved to breakeven. This also applies to other majors that we considered as part of the medium-term weakening of the US dollar . Today is one of the most significant events of the week, namely the US CPI . The euro is expected to strengthen against the US dollar during the release of inflation data. However, more global prospects are more in favor of the seller and the likelihood of a reversal downward from the level of 1.09000 is high. In this case, we can expect a fall to at least 1.08000. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
by Strifor
1
EUR/USD to slump again after ECB decision? The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages. Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal. The previous session's decline was the biggest single-day decline since March 2023, so it will be interesting to see if this bearishness has been exhausted. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged but perhaps point towards the start of its own rate cutting cycle in June. ECB officials have already begun discussing this timeline, so tomorrow’s announcement might lack the bite of a CPI print. Instead, traders could look for clues on future ECB policy during Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the rate decision.
by BlackBull_Markets
Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation reportThe Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%. The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest inflation rate since September. On a monthly basis, CPI remained unchanged in March at 0.4%, higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to rising energy and shelter costs. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was unchanged at 3.8% in March and just above the market estimate of 3.7%. Monthly, core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the previous two months and above the market estimate of 0.3%. US inflation has accelerated for a second straight month, a reminder that although inflation appears under control, the final sprint to the 2% target will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The strong inflation report has pushed back expectations on the timing of a first rate cut, propelling the US dollar higher against the major currencies and sending the Australian dollar reeling. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped from above 50% before the inflation report to 23% afterwards. Investors don’t consider a rate cut to be likely until September. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations will be released Thursday. The forecast for April stands at 4.1%, down from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since October 2021. As well, China releases CPI, which is expected to decline by 0.5% in March, down from 1% in February. A reading below zero would point to deflation and weakness in China’s economy. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6560 and is putting pressure on support at 0.6500 0.6638 and 0.6698 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
by markusrafferty
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve. CPI Data and Impact: CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major). Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major). Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more. Trading Strategy CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly. Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points. Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs. Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI. Bull Case Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely. Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels. Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 CPI Impact on Markets Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations. Treasury Rates & Fed Policy US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts. Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls. Individual Stocks Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
THE KOG REPORT -CPIQuick update on the charts pre-event. We'll keep it simple as for this, there is likely to be a lot of volume entering the markets on the release, and the movement can be extreme. A lot of traders are expecting this to pullback, and they may get the move, however, they could surprise everyone and continue this move to the upside before then bringing it down. We have added our basic intra-day levels as well as the hots spots on the chart. We'll be looking for RIPs at the levels. Immediate support stands at 2340 and below that 2320 which is our bias level, which if broken you can see where they can take the price. That's where we feel opportunities will present themselves to long the market. Immediate resistance stands at 2380-5 and above that 2390-5, if broken, you can see where they can take the price before any attempt on the pullback short! We'll stick with extreme levels, or, wait for the move to finish before we get involved. No need to throw ego's into calling the move this time as this one is an important one! As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold