₿itcoin / Welcome back 🤝 / CommerciumHispanus🌎 "Soros taught me that you have to visualize the situation in months, and whatever it is, the price will be there, don't focus on where it is today."
-Stanley Druckenmiller.
MACRO CONDITIONS
• China: Stimulus, +production, reduces anticovid measures.
• FED goes up, but the pace goes down: Goldman Sachs forecasts 50bp in December, and 25bp in Feb/Mar/May.
• The bet: JP Morgan: “3 more increases and pause at 5%”.
• Bullard from the FED: “5% / 5.25%”.
• European Central Bank: “The risks to the financial stability of the Eurozone increase as the economy heads towards a probable recession, so any reduction in ECB bond holdings will probably be gradual in order to maintain calm in the markets".
• An agreement: The director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, asks the central banks to calibrate the rhythm of their interest rate increases to avoid indirect effects in other countries.
CYCLE OF THE CRIPTOMARKET
• Average: 200 periods (Market consensus) very far from price.
• Elliot: suggests development or end of wave 5.
• Oscillators: Multiple Regular and Hidden Bullish Divergences.
• Wyckoff: current market condition suggests SC / SP (See scheme+Coinbase/Bitfinex Volume).
• Dominance: BTC .D is still low, but usually rises in times of depression, you should not focus on overpriced coins vs. Bitcoin.
• This will be an era where education on the preservation of private keys and full control of coins will be promoted (Consequence of FTX/3AC/CELSIUS cases)
The capital feels very comfortable today, according to macro conditions, the crypto market and its cycle, I expect relief for Q2/Q3 2023.
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To enter the market you must have:
Strategy
market vision
Domain of emotions
capital management
quality tools
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Greetings to all and good luck!
Ignacio - 🌎 Commercium Hispanus
***Cryptocurrency trading is subject to high market risk. Carry out your operations with caution. I always do my best to choose high quality coins, but I will not be responsible for your trading losses.***
