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Crash!!!!!

CRASH - CRASH - CRASH - Don't believe a word of it...I created this video because I'm seeing a bunch of content/videos where everyone is suddenly calling for a CRASH. and I laugh about it. If you want to believe the markets are going to CRASH - go for it. Sell everything. Bet the farm on the CRASH. Leverage your house and everything you own to bet on the CRASH. It's not going to happen soon. My research is very clear. I believe the first opportunity for a deep (more than 25-35%) market pullback will happen after late 2029 and into 2030. Until then, we are going to see moderate pullbacks in a very solid uptrend. Watch this video and learn why real research and modeling systems don't react to the Crash-Dummies that continually push out CLICK-BAIT. It's time to get real about your trading and investing. If you are following someone who continually calls for a market crash - good luck. At some point, you are going to come to the realization they are wrong 90% of the time. Try to find someone you trust who provides clear, timely, and ACCURATE forecasts. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
56
Bitcoin’s Incoming Bear Market!🚀 Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: The Final Push Before the Fall? Bitcoin is currently in the parabolic uptrend phase of its halving cycle, with price action closely following historical patterns. Since the last halving on April 15, 2024, Bitcoin has mined approximately 42,480 blocks, pushing the market closer to the 70,000-block threshold where the trend historically reverses into a deep bear market. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s next major bull market peak is expected around 150,000 USD, approximately 70,000 blocks post-halving (projected for August 2025). However, investors must prepare for what follows—a severe bear market fuelled by miner capitulation. 🔥The 70,000-Block Bearish Reversal: Why It Happens Every Cycle 1. The Mining Difficulty Trap & Rising Costs Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block interval. As BTC price surges in the bull market, more miners join the network, driving competition and difficulty higher. This raises mining costs and squeezes profit margins, making it harder for smaller miners to stay afloat. ✅ Bull Market (~0-70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) High BTC prices offset increased difficulty, allowing miners to hold rather than sell. Low sell pressure from miners keeps Bitcoin in an uptrend. ❌ Bear Market (~70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) After BTC peaks, prices decline but difficulty remains high. Mining costs remain constant, while block rewards drop. Weaker miners can’t afford to mine at a loss and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover operational expenses. 2. The Snowball Effect: How Miner Capitulation Triggers a Crash Once inefficient miners begin selling, a chain reaction unfolds: 1️⃣ Bitcoin price starts declining after the cycle peak (~12-18 months post-halving). 2️⃣ Miners struggle to remain profitable due to high difficulty and lower block rewards. 3️⃣ Miners begin offloading BTC to cover expenses, increasing supply in the market. 4️⃣ More BTC supply leads to further price drops, triggering panic selling. 5️⃣ Additional miners shut down operations, selling off reserves, further flooding the market. 6️⃣ Capitulation accelerates, causing a cascading effect similar to leveraged liquidations seen in past bear markets. 🔄 This cycle repeats until enough miners exit, difficulty adjusts downward, and BTC stabilizes. 3. Historical Proof: How Miner Capitulation Has Marked Every Bear Market Each Bitcoin bear market aligns with major miner capitulation events. Here’s how past cycles have played out: 📌 2012 Halving: Bull top in late 2013, miner capitulation in 2014, BTC fell -80%. 📌 2016 Halving: Bull top in late 2017, miner capitulation in 2018, BTC fell -84%. 📌 2020 Halving: Bull top in late 2021, miner capitulation in 2022, BTC fell -78%. 📌 2024 Halving: Expected bull top in late 2025, miner capitulation likely in 2026?, BTC decline TBD but estimated to be around -60%. 🔹 In all cases, BTC topped ~70,000 blocks after the halving, followed by a deep drawdown driven by miner capitulation. 🔹 The selling pressure from miners perfectly aligns with the start of major market crashes. 4. The Accumulation Phase: What Follows the Crash? After miners capitulate and difficulty adjusts downward, Bitcoin enters a sideways accumulation phase (~140,000-210,000 blocks post-halving). Weaker miners have already exited, reducing sell pressure. Surviving miners adjust to lower rewards and stop mass selling BTC. Smart money (whales & institutions) begin accumulating at undervalued prices. The MVRV ratio drops below 1, signalling a market bottom. Bitcoin stabilizes, setting the stage for the next bull cycle. This predictable recovery cycle lays the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next exponential rally into the next halving period. The Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction for 2025-2026 ✅ Bitcoin is currently on track to peak near ~$150,000 around 70,000 blocks post-halving (August 2025). ✅ Following this, BTC is expected to enter its bear market, with prices potentially falling to ~$60,000 (by December 2026). ✅ The primary catalyst for this crash will be miner capitulation, just as it has been in every prior cycle. Final Thoughts If history repeats, the Bitcoin market is set to follow a sharp parabolic rise to ~$150,000 before undergoing a 70,000-block miner-driven selloff into a multi-month bear market. Investors should be aware of this pattern and plan accordingly. Sources & Data Validation The insights presented in this article are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles, on-chain analytics, and mining difficulty trends from various sources, including: Blockchain Data (Glassnode, CoinMetrics) Historical BTC Halving Data (Bitcoin Whitepaper, Blockchain Explorers) Market Analysis Reports (Messari, Arcane Research) Macroeconomic Influences (Federal Reserve Reports, Global Liquidity Cycles) Disclaimer: Not an Investment Recommendation This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
10
Market SnapshotHmmmnnnnn....... www.dailymail.co.uk "Hedge funds are making a multi-billion-dollar gamble against the US economy, betting Donald Trump's presidency will result in a massive market crash that could devastate 401(k)s, pensions, and household savings across America. Data from Goldman Sachs has sent shockwaves through financial circles, revealing a dramatic surge in 'short' positions against US stocks - a move that signals a belief the market is headed for a precipitous crash. Throughout January, investors placed 10 times more bets on American stocks falling than on their continued rise, a staggering shift that reflects growing unease over Wall Street's future under Trump's leadership. The timing of such financial revolt is no coincidence and comes just as the world witnessed a $600 billion wipeout in major US tech stocks earlier this week, driven by fears over Chinese AI rival DeepSeek, which disrupted the once-unshakable dominance of America's technology sector. "
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
NDQ100 Update - Overaction? Thanks for checking out our latest update. Today, we are looking at the NDQ100 daily chart. What a 48 hours we have seen. After a plunge that wiped off up to 1 trillion dollars and close to 600 million off Nvidia, we saw a fast fightback at the end of the session and a recovery on Tuesday. The crash occurred after Chinese Tech company DeepSeek shocked the AI world with a powerful LLM. Looking at the last price action, has support reformed? Will we see the new push higher after this last seller test? Buyers look interested, but we would like further confirmation with rallies that fill the gap or a test of the last high. Good trading from Eightcap.
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100Long
by Eightcap
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand. From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind. While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important. Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile. This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction?NASDAQ Plunges Amid AI Tech Stock Fears: Is This the Start of a Crash or Just a Correction? The NASDAQ and NVDA faced a sharp decline today , the fears over AI-related tech stock valuation driving the downturn. This follows a broader market pullback, with the Dow tumbling over 350 points. While some analysts call it a healthy correction, others warn of a deeper risk. What Just Happened? Tech stocks bore the brunt of today's selloff as investor sentiment soured on artificial intelligence-related equities. Despite AI’s explosive growth in 2023, cracks in the market narrative are starting to emerge. Leading companies like Microsoft and Nvidia saw sharp declines after investors began questioning whether their sky-high valuations were justified. From a technical and price action perspective : The index has pulled back into a key demand zone. The current dip has brought prices close to the upward trendline established since December 2022, where the NASDAQ recovered from a 32.84% drop. Volume Profile: High trading activity around these levels suggests intense market interest and potential support, but if this level breaks, further declines could follow. So, Is This a Correction or a Crash? Today’s drop appears to lean more toward a correction than a crash: Structural Integrity: The NASDAQ remains within its broader bullish trendline. Breaking this line, however, could signal a shift to bearish sentiment. Technically, demand zones acts as a trampoline or a magnate for the price. If the market bounces here, it may indicate renewed strength. So, While AI fears rattled the tech sector, the overall economic backdrop hasn’t drastically shifted to signal a systemic crash. What to Watch Next; If the index breaks below the current demand zone and closes under the trendline, it could spell deeper trouble for tech-heavy indexes. Conclusion: While today's drop in NASDAQ futures and Nvidia has sent a wave of panic through the markets, it’s too early to call this a full-blown crash. Investors should watch key levels closely to determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a larger downtrend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MESHANL
VIRTUAL - A Long Opportunity or More Pain Ahead?VIRTUAL has dropped over 50% from its all-time high of $5.14, now trading around $2.50. A head and shoulders pattern has formed, with price currently testing the neckline, a bearish sign that could signal further downside. Let’s break down potential targets and trade setups. Key Levels and Support Zone: 1.) POC from December 2024 Range: Located at $1.67, a significant level from previous trading activity 2.) Anchored VWAP: Taken from the lows, currently around $1.62, reinforcing the $1.66 zone as strong support 3.) Fibonacci Retracement (Log Scale): The 0.382 Fib from the recent wave sits at $1.77, providing additional confluence for the support area 4.) Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: The 0.786 Fib aligns at $1.71, further strengthening the $1.70–$1.80 range as a reliable support zone Trade Setups: Short Setup: Entry: $2.836 (Fib retracement 0.618 from the current downtrend) Target: around $1.80 Stop Loss: Above $3 Risk-to-Reward: 5:1 Potential Drop: 30–40% from the entry level Long Setup: Entry: $1.70–$1.80 range Target: Depends on confirmation and take profit areas. A realistic initial target could be around $2-$2.30 Stop Loss: Below $1.52 Risk-to-Reward: 2:1 or better depending on take profit strategy
Short
by SiDec
3
NVDA Topping PatternUnlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective. This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern. From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal) If on the other hand, it pops above recent highs then no trade or an easy stop out. As you all know I don't do targets, I think they are silly and only used to pretend one has such insight not only can they call the move but also a "target" too. Yeah well, I'll leave that to the "experts" ;) Bulls don't be a dick for tick. Shorts take some early profits to improve cost basis but let this one ride!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by RealMacro
6
BTC1! Bitcoin possible crash scenario.The BTC1! chart strikes me as particularly interesting because, unlike other BTC charts, professionals use Bitcoin futures contracts here to speculate on BTC's volatility or manage risk in larger portfolios. The trading schedule runs from Monday (opening at 5:00 PM CT) to Friday (closing at 4:00 PM CT). When the Monday opening price differs from the Friday closing price, a gap is created, which is often filled, as historical data shows similar occurrences. Currently, there is an unfilled gap between 80,000 and 78,000. While it's not guaranteed that this gap will close, it's worth keeping an eye on that zone. Interestingly, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level also aligns with this area. Additionally, there's the 0.25 zone where we find an nPOC (naked Point of Control). We could see a significant bounce of 20–40% from these levels. If BTC were to experience a 50% drop from the current point, it would bring us to around 54,000. Historically, it tends to have a substantial bounce whenever BTC has fallen more than 40%, making these levels worth monitoring closely.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BOT721
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course.. Do I agree with everything they say? Nope The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade: "QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
JP Morgan (JPM): Correction on the HorizonJP Morgan ( NYSE:JPM ) is back on our radar as the upcoming earnings season begins, with the banking sector leading the reports. We’ve analyzed JP Morgan before, and the current setup offers intriguing opportunities. Since 2023, the stock has maintained a steady upward trend that continues into 2024. Currently, NYSE:JPM appears to be in sub-wave ((iii)) within the larger wave (3) or possibly wave 5. However, we anticipate that sub-wave ((iv)) correction is yet to occur, aligning with the broader structural narrative of the chart. Presently, the stock is trading near a critical trendline originating from the top of sub-wave ((i)). This trendline, which has shifted from resistance to support after multiple touchpoints, now risks being broken. Should it fail, the price could fall from its current level of $243 into a range between $204 and $173. A drop to $173 would represent the maximum correction in our view, while a more realistic pullback would fall within the $204 to $188 range. On the bullish side, the wave 5 could push up to approximately $260, a modest increase from the current price. This scenario fits within the Elliott Wave framework, anticipating a wave ((iv)) correction before the final upward moves to complete wave 5 and the larger wave (3).
NYSE:JPM
by freeguy_by_wmc
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
28.12.24 American Express - slowly downwardsAmerican Express is since decades Warren Buffett Darling. AXP last years with increasing fees and solid growth spent wonderfull earnings to the shareholders, even solid dividends. But during the last years, credit defaults increased rapidly. From quarter to quarter they increased accounting provisions. st. louis Fed statistic also very interesting. Small banks in Us with huge defaults, meantime by 7%. Highest value since 1991, even higher than 2008… So as a matter of fact, consumer sentiment also negativ. For 2025 expect recession and further increasing of defaults. Expext for axp sharp slump in earnings.
NYSE:AXPShort
by Flyerdan
Bitcoin - Playing around weak support#BTC/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + Currently bitcoin is trading around its support zone of 95K and this is weak support which held and broke multiple times. + Strong resistance for bitcoin is around 92K, if bitcoin falls to this level, we can expect the support to hold. + I'm expecting a drop in price with a wick to touch 92K and bounce back immediately. + If bitcoin breaks below 92K then we can expect further crash to 80K level. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
Long
by VectorAlgo
2