Get ready for Stock Market Crash - April 24th of 2023 hello traders,
Get ready for Stock Market Crash - of 2023
#VIX is now on a major support and growing consistently,
on the week of April 24th 2023, it will break out of resistance and shoot up.
Therefore, Bulls only have Two more weeks, then Bears will take over, and it will be the Stock Market CRASH of the week of April 24 2023.
I will be liquidating all my Long Trades during the next two weeks, and opening more short positions.
Trade:
Safe - Carefully - Determined
Good Luck and Good Profit
Edward Trader
Moving Water
#SPX500 #SP100 #NASDAQ #CRASH
Crash!!!!!
US Regional Banks: Is the Worst Over?📝The KBW NASDAQ REGIONAL BANKING INDEX is a stock index composed of regional US banks operating in one or several geographic regions of the country. These banks tend to be smaller in size than the large national banks, and generally offer banking services to businesses and individuals in their areas of operation.
Index performance is affected by a number of factors, including the health of the regional economy in which these banks operate, interest rates and regulatory policies that affect the banking industry.
📈 Looking in parallel with the S&P500 index, we see that it anticipated the 2008 crisis.
Now KBW is in a decisive region, at the same level as before that crisis.
The resistance and support levels that delimit this region are in green and red, respectively.
Whether it will rise or fall, I don't know...
For now I'm just stating this fact.
What I can say is that if the index breaks below the red dotted line, it will be an indication that the banking sector could experience more turmoil.
March 31 - BTC, SPX, DXY31st of March has consistently been either: a sharp turning point, a spike in trend action or a calling for a long-term trend reversal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have followed this odd tendency correspondingly. For a few significant reasons below, I anticipate this year's 31st of March will astonish many of us.
Distinct Timing:
Alignment with KEY economic data readings:
--> Core PCE Price Index (MoM) is the reading. CNN on this index: "PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers." Currently, it is undeniably the most significant factor which will drive markets to new equilibriums. Factors including: markets' indecisiveness (particularly large institutions); consistent past increases in the core PCE; and unexpectedly high most recent inflation reading in the UK (actual 10.4 vs expected 9.7) - do not make the next reading seem promising for bulls.
--> Eurozone inflation level will be vital, partly due to the mentioned recent surprise from UK's inflation reading. As this could potentially clarify whether the unexpected reading arose from global or solely UK-related factors.
Date Alignment:
1/ Last day of the month
2/ Last day of the working week (Friday)
3/ And of course, the day is March 31st :)
If you have been following my channel you know how much I love spread graphs. Check out the spread chart's indicators (including 50 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 SMA, and 200 EMA) and its formula below.
Same graph (W):
Same graph (M):
The formula:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC*(TVC:GOLD*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y)*(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y)+10))^-1
Thanks for your time guys! If not for some comments in my last post, I wouldn't have found an error in the formula! So, please comment with any questions, ideas and opinions.
XAUUSD LongAttention traders!
We are feeling bullish on XAUUSD and wanted to share why.
With the current economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, we believe it's a wise choice to look at gold to hedge against bank runs, higher currency fluctuations, etc.
Our analysts have also identified strong technicals, as seen above, with XAUUSD currently in a strong uptrend and showing potential for further continuation. We are closely monitoring a key price level to enter a long position, and we plan to hold it for the mid to long-term.
As with any trading, there is always risk involved, but with proper risk management and a solid strategy, we believe the potential rewards outweigh the risks. Join us in investing in XAUUSD and let's make the most of this opportunity.
Let's discuss your opinions!
Euro to CrashWe're still anticipating one more low for the Euro against the Dollar. As you can see the move down in the last few weeks has been 5 minute waves down to make a minor wave 1. We moved quite sharply up last week in what looks to be a blowoff top to finish the minor wave 2 and we anticipate a very sharp move down over the coming weeks to complete a minor wave 3 taking us back towards parity. shorting from current prices should provide a very nice return over the coming weeks and months. It seems traders have become overly bullish on Europe and this is likely about to change, with Credit Suisse and now likely Deustche Bank about to go over the edge as well, the European banking system isn't as strong as the ECB will have you believe and with Putin making moves to escalate the war in Ukraine further still by moving tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus the sentiment might be about to change. In addition to this we are forecasting that the US economy will continue to show more strength than the EU's and inflation looks to be on the rise again globaly, the Fed will likely continue on their path of rate hikes or at least maintaining the 'higher for longer policy'. All of this leads us to believe shorting the Euro will turn out highly lucrative in the weeks to come.
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly,
September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse
March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Asset correlations (bottom pane):
Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today
Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today
Indicators' inference :
The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988.
The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation.
Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart:
TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1
Finally,
Current Retest(D):
Same chart - Longer Period (3M):
Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
S&P Market crash (spy)Will keep it short and sweet, Ive posted in the previous a parabolic curve break of SPY. Notice a harmonic patter forming after a failed retracement (Point C) of the .236. Until that breaks (can ultimately run to $460 and still perform this bearish outcome) Point D can bring SPY to $240. Also meeting the .886 Retracement.. to the dot.
Fed Will Try To "Save The Day", But To No AvailRegarding my post back in November 2022, we couldn't even muster the strength to get to 4,300.
Let's face it, we're in rough shape. The Fed will try a few emergency tactics here in the coming weeks which will likely give us some relief in the near-term but the writing is on the wall.
One last suckers rally so the sharks and whales can absorb some of the tax refunds coming this season then as we head into May it's looking bleak.
Big head-and-shoulders forming, let's see if it plays out...
GS Goldman Sachs exposure to Circle and USDC !!!Goldman Sachs has been a significant investor in Circle since the company's early days.
In 2015, Goldman Sachs participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle, alongside other investors such as IDG Capital Partners and Breyer Capital.
This funding round was notable for being one of the largest investments in a bitcoin company at the time.
Since then, Goldman Sachs has continued to support Circle, participating in subsequent funding rounds and providing assistance with the development and adoption of Circle's products.
In particular, Goldman Sachs has been involved in the development of Circle's USDC stablecoin, which is pegged to the US dollar and used for a variety of purposes, including facilitating international payments and enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
In addition to its investment in Circle, Goldman Sachs has also shown interest in other areas of the cryptocurrency industry.
In 2018, the investment bank announced plans to launch a bitcoin trading desk, although these plans were ultimately put on hold due to regulatory concerns.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs has continued to monitor the cryptocurrency industry and explore opportunities for involvement in this rapidly evolving market.
And I think there are new information about to be revealed about Goldman`s investments in Circle and cryptos!
If you want to buy Puts, here are my favorites:
2023-6-16 Expiration Date
$310 Strike Price
$14.40 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me.
I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past.
We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner.
I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY.
One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT.
I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future.
Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
BUY BUY BUY BTC -Hand over fist This is a long term 5 year call on BTC direction. While there remains the open possibility of one more downward thrust to $18,750 and perhaps a flash to $13,750, the majority of the bear move has been priced in, and time is now on the side of bulls and the long side. Most of the time in the next 5 years BTC will be higher. I believe significantly so. The Reason : Implosion of International Banks and Payment systems world wide. BTC will be like Zoom Inc. was in the pandemic. It will find its new use. When payment systems collapse, new ones emerge. $35,300 within the next 1 year. And $87,500 in the next 5. ( or sooner)
FRC to $42The price spring should it break and hold should be fairly large and fast. It currently broke a major trend to the downside and hit an exit. It also has fairly smooth sailing should it break to the upside tomorrow. Exit trade should the blue trend break or should the stock price reject off the red trend. Buy the dips on the trend until it breaks, and then sell on the bottom side of the trend.
DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure.
It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short.
The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%)
Best, Hard Forky
The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows:
- Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal .
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23
- BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
DJI - World's End Scenario
Gold TradingGold mid-term swing idea we are currently looking at.
The Two setups provided are to account for the recent fundamental activity which caused havoc on the global markets as risk on mode ushered investors into buying #Gold (#XAU ), and other assets like #JPY as an example.
Markets have priced in a possible risk scenario where $CS (Credit Suisse) one of the G-Sibs files for bankruptcy.
This event has a high impact on the markets due to the significance of Credit Suisse.
Today 15th March 2023 the Saudi National Bank have announced that they won't be able to support Credit Suisse further. As the bank itself has low deposits due to depositors rushing to withdraw their money the bank is on the brink of bankruptcy.
At the time of writing this post, the Swiss Government is in talks with Credit Suisse discussing a possible bail-out.
The current interest rate hikes have pushed many banks close to or over bankruptcy and due to the Fractional Reserve banking the banks have very low liquidity if any at all on their hands to cover a liquidity crunch. For example depositors en-masse run to the bank to withdraw their funds.
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THE CRASH IS HEREThe S&P 500 has attempted a bullish break out in January 2023. The price stalled and started ranging right above previous resistance trend line. Today we see major sell pressure. If we close under temporary support line on my daily chart then we will see the stock market form it's next leg in a downtrend. This will be the longest leg downward. When price fails to breakout it tends to pull back harder and faster than it rallied. Kind of like a rubber band. You can stretch the rubber band upward but as soon as you let go of the rubber band. The opposite force of the rubber band will snap back faster and harder. On the chart, you'll see some green trend lines to where I project price of SPY will land. You can say it's a possible pivot point but honestly I really see the chart hitting 200's before we continue the next future bull cycle. See you guys in summer 2024 when the bulls return! Happy Trading.
SPY: Due for more downside?I've got a supply zone staring at $394 that I think will serve as a temporary top for the remainder of this week. We also have a strong resistance at $393. I may look to enter puts but I am more likely going to try to play UVXY calls with the extra volatility. I'm expecting this to get under $380 fairly quickly and ultimately down o $378 where I see a gap.