BTC FOMC projectiondistribution schematic 5. same fractal we had at 69k. algos will rekt early bears on Wed then we take over
Crash!!!!!
one more blow off top for schematic 5?looking like schematic 5 same one we had at 69k. should be boring sideways movement leading into fed then a blow off to to the daily FVG
BTC distribution phaseBTC 10400-8000 target over the next 3-5 months. some harmonics there on my second macro chart
Looks bearishI just opened a short position at current price. I will add if price tests the $24.8 resistance level and is rejected. Important to see a rejection before adding another short position.
SPY has same setup from .comMay will be bloody. we topped today one retest of this high on fed day and it's over. following .com fractal with same gaps and structure. both have triple tops
🔥 Another Market Crash Coming? VIX Says YES 🚨The VIX is the volatility index of the SP500. Generally, it trends up during bearish times and trends down during bullish ones.
In the past, the VIX has always spiked up during a market bottom. Looking at the chart, we can see that the VIX has not spiked up yet and formed a bottom like it has done in the past.
We only have ~30 years of VIX data, but it has still signaled the bottom of every bear market (-20% decline or more) during that time.
Assuming that the VIX is correct, there's still a chance that the market hasn't bottomed yet and that the "real" crash is yet to come.
What do you think? Is the bottom in? Crash incoming? Share your thoughts🙏
Head and Shoulders Topping Formation on the Russell2000The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to rein in their lending to build reserves and take on debt from the FED & FHLBs to meet deposit withdrawals. This reduces the profitability of banks and restricts credit into the economy, which reduces economic activity as a whole. The economy had already begun slowing heavily before the credit crunch began in March 2023, but the current business cycle downturn, combined with 3 large regional bank failures and rising continuing jobless claims, portend a severe & lengthy economic contraction. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators registered a -7.2% YoY Contraction recently. Since 1968, Any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession.
Over 40% of Russell2000 companies are unprofitable and over 24% of S&P500 companies are zombie companies. Markets are still very overvalued within the context of a 5% Fed funds rate, contracting earnings, a credit crunch, and ongoing quantitative tightening by the FED. The markets have been seeing less buying volumes as well as carving out a head and shoulders top on the Russell2000. Other problems facing the banks include the popping auto & commercial real estate debt bubbles, as well as increasing large corporate bankruptcies (The most since 2010 thus far this year). The IPO market is the weakest it has been since 2009 (by total proceeds), which is also hurting Investment banking profits. I see the potential for 5%-10% possible upside and 35%-50% downside for the Russell2000 & S&P500 over the next 9 -18 months.
Thank you for reading,
Alexander C. Lambert
Ethereum ETH Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments.
The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak.
Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier.
Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market.
ETH/USDT short
Entry Range: 1800 - 1950 usd
Take Profit 1: 1710 usd
Take Profit 2: 1620 usd
Take Profit 3: 1480 usd
Stop Loss: 2150 usd
Ethereum ETH Price Targets after the FOMC meeting this weekThe upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd could cause a further decline in the crypto market due to the potential rate hike and ongoing unease around banking system developments.
The outlook for the crypto market after the upcoming FED meeting on May 3rd is bleak.
Fears of a deep credit crunch caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse have not yet materialized, and the financial situation is much steadier.
Additionally, inflation remains elevated, and with evidence of stubbornness in underlying inflation, it could be in the 4% to 5% range, far above the 2% inflation target. The markets are pricing in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 5.25% at the May FOMC meeting, and given the steadiness in financial markets, persistence in price pressures, and continued decent activity, this could contribute to a further downturn in the crypto market.
ETH/USDT short
Entry Range: HKEX:1800 - 1950
Take Profit 1: HKEX:1710
Take Profit 2: TSE:1620
Take Profit 3: TSE:1480
Stop Loss: TADAWUL:2150
True bottom for EthereumSame for bitcoin .. if you still have money in profits
GET OUT!
Do not hold it ; secure your profits that you had made and buy again until we reach the true bottom.
The Feds has confirmed that the mild recession is coming in the end of 2023; do your thing and be prepared.
The markets will keep crashing until the true bottom is in; it will take 2 full years for the markets to recover.
Now for Ethereum the resistance is strong and felt the impact of the economy and the news from the Feds, 2000-2200 is the strong resistance of the zone and now the bear market is back from the long water break and take over.
WHEN TO BUY: buy Ethereum until it hits 400-500 area that price is the real bottom for Ethereum.. once the bottom is in go all in.. and the target price you all know HKEX:10 ,000 is the target in 2024 until 2025.
Trade safe y’all and please survive the recession y’all know what to do
So much similarity - 1929 stock market and today I have broken it into 2 parts.
Part 1 – we can associate it with the sequence then.
Part 2 – we can take reference as the situation unfolds.
Part 1 -
1929 sequence that seems familiar today:
a) Crisis triggered by several factors
b) Stocks rose rapidly
c) Chain reaction of events
d) Bank had invested heavily
e) Bank failed
Part 2 -
As it continued in 1929:
f) Decrease in the money supply
g) Decrease production & employment
i) Decline spending & investment
j) The cycle continued
Following the video comparing the 1929 stock crash followed-by the great depression and the recent years, there are many similarities between its technical and fundamental developments.
Trading & Hedging in Nasdaq -
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Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
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I don't like thisToo many bear patterns, the only thing that is preventing the price to crash is the strong trendline. I'm not sure if is going to hold, I have a short position but I will close it out at the bottom of the bear flag. In this market I prefer to wait until the support is broken.
BTC macro by @SeemsLegitnext few months are going to be a blood bath. no bottom short term bottom until July when the fed pauses and by then BTC will have reached 11-8k
Bitcoin, Fed, and EquitiesIn supplementation to my most recent chart, "In bitcoin we trust" I wanted to make my point even more clear by adding the Fed Balance Sheet.
As you can see, it has been and always was the Fed pumping every asset. March 2020, the Balance Sheet exploded higher, as did stocks and bitcoin/crypto market.
Prepare for anything because they're on to something. This just seems very odd and worrying. So much printing, so much new debt.. what happens to the USD, inflation? None of this is good. The higher markets go, the harder the crash will be.
These rallies are not based on sound healthy economy or inflation hedge or good earnings.. this is pure pump nonsense.
GME gap fillingGME didn't moon (from previous post), clearly. Really bad option chain setup for any real runs still. IV looking tragic still, but we all know the market will be taking that 2nd leg down soon so I can't see GME going up in the near term.
GME is super illiquid still.
Market is taking a turn down finally.
My target is $17.5.
Current I have ITM CCs between 17.5 - 20, looking to exit when they go OTM or before 5/15.
Finally, hoping we see a pump into next earnings after this dip. Use the time to collect some additional capital from CCs, CSPs at bottom, etc.
The Sound Of Bubbles BurstingI am currently preparing a deep analysis, but it is taking some time, and the market is plummeting. So many indicators and consequences to articulate.
I will release it tonight or tomorrow morning.
Suffice to say, it does not look good. Even MOSES is starting to be bearish.
The market is like the famous quote from Shrek "I am a Donkey on the edge".
If you want to see the in-depth analysis soon, simply follow me or like this post.
Stay Safe, secure your capital
Barry
I have cashed out in November - see related analysis.
It’s the Sound of Silence… NO The Sound of Bubbles BurstingIt has been an amazing 2020/21 in the markets, stimulus, free money, memes, crypto, NFTs, a 142% Nasdaq 100 rise from March 16, 2020, to Nov 29, 2021.
I have traded through 3 major crashes, 2000, 2007, 2020. I can now hear the gentle popping of bubbles through charts.
How? I have developed indicators and backtested systems with TradingView to tell me when they will happen.
My baby MOSES indicator is backtested to 1918. He gets it right the majority of the time for major crashes. Like all of us, he is not perfect, he was very late in the most volatile crash in history, the COVID crash of 2020.
It is very rare that Moses is late, he usually avoids about 60/70%% of a major crash. Right now Moses has stopped being bullish, he is very quiet.
He has just flagged a catastrophic 7% drop in one week. Moses is a “Donkey on the edge” (See Chart).
A 7% or greater drop in one week is rare, the Covid crash showed two 10% weekly drops.
Hello Darkness My Old Friend.
Step Back And Think. A 142% increase in the Nasdaq 100 in two years.
Inflation, supply chain, energy prices, commodities, ongoing pandemic.
Central banks need to increase rates, why? Because we are overheated. The crazy money flowing into Crypto and NFTs is 2000 DOT COM madness.
Like our place on this planet, we need to be sustainable. This market is not sustainable.
OK now on to the actual technical analysis.
Technical Analysis Notes
A master trader once gave me this advice.
Plot a green 50 moving average, an amber 100 moving average, and a red 200 moving average.
It's like traffic lights, a price above green buy . Below green, close to amber, be cautious . Below amber close to red, put the brakes on .
See the chart
On a weekly chart we are below the green 50 week moving average.
On a daily chart, we are below the red 200 day moving average.
RSI is negatively divergence since November 2021
ADR is negative since August 2021
Crash Detection
The green Moses dots at the bottom of the chart show a raging bull market.
No dot signal market transition
Red dot shows major bear market.
Nothing in life is 100% and the market may turn if Darth Powell, spooked by this mini-crash, announces no interest rate increases for another year. I would give this prediction a 75% chance.
But until then, buckle up for a wild ride down.
Kind regards – Liberated Stock Trader – Barry – Bazza to my mates.
If you like – like. Want more – follow
This is not financial advice, it is a hypothesis based on fundamental and technical analysis.
I exited the market in November, and was also bearish in December, see attached charts.
The Al Pacino Rule of Investing. A Don Corleone Market.For those of us old enough to remember the glorious movie, The Godfather III, there is a thrilling scene where Michael Corleone (Al Pacino) explains...
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”
You are Don Corleone in this market.
You are positive; you are by default a bull; you want the market to go up.
You have fear of missing out (FOMO) if the market increases.
The Fear of Missing Out , or FOMO in stocks, is one of the most destructive impulses that an investor can experience. The emotions that drive FOMO are the fear of loss and the fear of not being part of the group. Fear of loss occurs when investors see other people making money.
Imagine this scene. The market is in turmoil, volatility is up, and the market is down.
You are smart, you realize the market will tank, and you are sitting on your cash.
YOU ARE OUT
Then suddenly, the market is having a great day; the NASDAQ or SPY is surging on open. You think this is it; I am all in, this is the end of the crash, I am getting in at the bottom. I want a piece of the pie.
YOU ARE BACK IN
You make 3% in one day. YES!!!
But this is what the institutions want you to think.
The market is pumped for a short-term gain to drag independent traders in.
Try Googling “archegos capital corruption.”
The market tanks 5% the next day, followed by another 4 days of 2% losses. Why? Because the institutions are selling against you.
JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE OUT, THEY PULL YOU BACK IN.
Traders, you need to know this fact. Until the fundamental macro-economic factors change, the bear reigns king.
I am not a perma-bull or a perma-bear; the market, trend, economics, and the Fed show me the path.
Follow the Pacino rule, don’t let them drag you back in when you should be out.
If you like this, hit like to get more updates.
Stay safe traders.
Barry.
Liberating stock traders since 1999.
Time for a strong dipHello Traders!
Welcome back to another trade with analyst Aadil1000x.
Today we are shorting atom because of the Reversal pattern at peak.
Atom Short Now @ 12.591
Stoploss 12.998(-3.17%)
Target 1, 11.966(+5.02%)
Final Target 11.313(+10.17%)
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
FaceBook (META) - Long-Term Approach to Big Gains.Hello All,
As we can see Facebook (Meta) has sold off almost 50%. On a fear and greed chart, we would be entering the fear stage which is now presenting us with good long-term buying opportunities. In the chart we labeled three areas to start Dollar Cost Averaging back into Facebook (META). In the first area, we would allocate the smallest portion while the final area would be a larger portion.
This is for long-term holding and not trading.
The markets are extremely uncertain currently. At the end of last year, we have sent warnings to get out of the tech sector, due to high levels of greed and overextended markets propped up by money printing, new investors & news narratives. Now that these stocks are coming back to earth we are presented with new long-term opportunities over the coming months.
BTCUSDT: Summer is commingHello Traders!
Welcome back to another trade with analyst Aadil1000x but this is not a normal trade.
First of all, I will suggest you close the spot positions that are posted recently by me as we are at the peak of a big crash.
This is a deep analysis of BTCusdt many more points are not on the chart but here is a basic few points about my view about the crash.
The Main reason why BTC will break the bottom is that there is a major trendline break and if we look closer it was a smooth break. A smooth break is never a good break. BTC was supposed to form some candles above the trendline so that it can never look back But it failed to do it. So this is the major reason behind the big crash.
Many of you won't understand what I am saying as this is a deep analysis of BTC and to crack a perfect chart we need deep analysis.
The second point is that there is a trendline coming called a bullish breaker. It is formed to give sleeping pills to the Bulls. Once the market crosses that line bulls start to sleep and sooner or later bears have to take control and take the market back to that trendline.
The third line is the final line it is there to cut the neck of bulls and it will dump them inside the ground.
The 'Head' is the rising wedge pattern and its head is above the key level. It will fall down soon. The funny part is you will also see the tongue coming outside the mouth after the bulls fall asleep. LOL
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
GST Down 99.67% if bought 1 year ago. Weekly entry and Targets(Weekly TF) Expecting a recovery for this shitcoin as it's down 99.67% from a year ago. Targets based on actual risk.
