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How low NASDAX will go.. RECESSION 2023I hope everyone watches the Feds decision on December 15th morning and Federal Powell speech at 2:30pm. Yes it’s pretty bad.. so at Europe the economy are slowing down and USA economy are slowing down as well.. even though everyone is spending less to avoid the highest expenses. The Feds will continue to fight against the inflation because it hasn’t reached their goals 2% ..it will be awhile and very far to go. In 15 years in continuing highest rate of all time taking Target between %4.25 & 4.5%, Along with the increase came an indication that officials expect to keep rates higher through next year, with no reductions until 2024. Yup you know this everyone .. severe Recession is really coming…. For NASDAQ I am keeping my only eye over than US30 because we all know US30 will bottom around 24000 area or lower as we might see.. for NAS buy zone should be at 10K, 9500 or worse about 8000.. big feeling 8000 or 9500 could be the bottom forming for NAS because of the Feds decision because now everything is still going to be expensive. If you still have loans , credit cards or something be sure to pay them off before we be getting a massive hit start into a recession as fears are coming into a close into it. Hope y’all have a good day .. save lots of money as possible.. invest of your average money .. don’t go all in until we are bottom. How far nas will go and US30 ? What are your analysis.
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
1
BNX: BROKE FIRST TIME SINCE START 2022 THE BREAKDOWN TREND ZONEBNX shows for the first time since the start of 2022 a signal of entering a new breakdown trend, what this means exactly we should confirm it coming time. but at last, this coin making history into range levels that did not respect for the long term, this could bring BNX to below levels. There is a good possibility that BNX can return below 100 USD since the levels for the uptrend are not confirmed. This is not trading advice, study your charts well before you enter any trade. This coin knows as a coin that did increase and held the levels before since 2022, but now it shows a difference side of the trend.
Short
by Goldenbreakout
1
Make or Break Elliot Wave Count: The capitulationUpdate on my previous idea. It's still make or break for the bear market right now. Personally, I don't see us breaking out of the downtrend. But a fake-out was always possible, and this seems to be what we got following softer than expected inflation data. Note that this technical analysis is a small part of the bearish case. The wider macro-economic environment bear case speaks for itself. And in my opinion, nothing has changed. The fed remains hawkish and monetary policy remains contractionary. Recession indicators have clearly rung their alarm bells. I also don't think the 'fed pivot' is the ticket out of here - history shows that more downside follows in the stock market even after the fed pivots - this is because the effects of their policy decisions don't change overnight. Economies take time to respond. To conclude, I think there is still downside in the SPX, as shown in the chart. But, if we break out of the downtrend line with conviction, I would reassess. But I do think we are still to see the full effects of contractionary monetary policy in earnings and employment figures. But we shall wait and see. I'm long volatility via VIX Call options and CFDs. What do you guys think? *not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by Doge_Dean
4
21D DDOI Gamma ExposureThis chart is intended for other idea articles but I thought it was interesting enough for its own idea. I'm not allowed to post my website, but you can find it in my profile it contains the data I used for charting this. 1) Naive Gex - Is the total option chain of a stock across all expirations. In other words the gamma exposure assumes customer is always long call short put meaning the dealer is short call and long put. Not very helpful, but it gives you the idea of the total value of options out there. It is based on CBOE delayed data. 2) 21DMA of dealer directional open interest (DDOI) gamma exposure across all option chains of the S&P 500. This data is mapped from my website into Trading View. There is no way I found to get options pricing data for all of option chains, so tracing is the only way I can get this data into trading view. What you can take from this data is simple. It is a measure of liquidity in the entire S&P options data. I labeled what type of liquidity regime we are in. To those who are predicting a crash during positive liquidity environments. Don't get caught to short. If you manage a portfolio properly then I doubt you will need to worry about a market crash. I see 2 scenarios of a market crash happening at the bottom in stocks and bonds. 1) It's short lived (~15-20%) and corrected via interest rate decreases and changes to SLR / ON Reverse Repo. Long enough to see who has been swimming naked, but not break Central banks. 2) a crash so big it collapses central banks and US has not choice but to change to CBDC (the "great reset" scenario) If you manage a portfolio properly, you wouldn't listen to any advice I have for doing so anyway. and you are prepared for the scenario 1. if scenario 2 happens it will break society and USD and everybody finds out they only own fugazzi (nothing). Realestate, hard assets like gold, silver, food, water. oil will sky rocket. Throughout all the selling last week the entire S&P did not go negative gamma. This is positive market conditions. Next week is considered a very large window of weakness in options event volatility and expiration. I expect volatility next week and we won't know the true outcome until after OPEX. Have you ever heard the phrase don't fight the fed. Well in this case, don't fight the fed liquidity. I think we're at that critical juncture the next 3 months and I will be the first waving red flags. A slight flinch in PPI not meeting expectations was just repositioning for CPI miss and FOMC 75bps hike. To be clear on my position. 1) I think PPI is a bad measure to inflation. so many factors. I only track for event vol and how dealers position around events. 2) CPI will likely be same as PPI. Lower but beat expectations. 3) FOMC - no rate hike. Hold for more data. Price stability... I believe Elon Musk. He Believes Cathy Woods My instinct tells me that ARKK is at its tipping point now and more losses on stocks like TSLA will cause liquidity issues. The amount of selling after Archegos would pale in comparison the financial storm of a larger hedge fund going under. And I could be completely wrong. It is easy to call a trend change while in the trend. It is incredible difficult to build economic models that identify when a trend will change or when a market will crash. But I'm trying. So before you come clown bashing my work, at least provide some of your own information or data to backup your claims. I have used these models of liquidity measurement to predict precisely when trends will change. over and over and over and over again. TLDR; Dealer Directional Gamma Exposure is trending positive. Lower CPI + Fed Rate Pause will increase liquidity. Increased Liquidity will lower volatility through Christmas for a Christmas rally. If no pause and higher CPI then I will buy OTM puts and go out for pizza This trend needs to break because lower lows for this expiry or next (quad witching) will likely cause a liquidity crisis. A Taper Tantrum. The Big One. Final Thoughts. I am an Optimist, a Protagonist, an Innovator, Engineer, Artist, but far from ever joking around except to turn a frown upside down. Thanks to all who support my ideas. If the white rabbit is what you seek. The trendsetter xyz is the key.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SPYvsGME
17
Inflation still high .. not good enoughCPI data of inflation still high but feeling will be at %7.3 over. If it’s lower then we will recover but .. the Feds haven’t reached the goals as they wanted. The inflation still over 40 year high , House markets are still unaffordable and expensive people still trying to get a house and such. As everything all mixed because of it.. have a feeling the big drop is coming as long the recession is coming in 2023 since lay offs are still going.
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
2
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year. Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak . To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
TVC:SPXShort
by The_DailyProfit
Is this the end... again?As housing is a necessity for all of humanity... it's a good indication on where the markets heading. Since 2008, the housing futures market found support near !146 in early 2009, after an expansion and retrace the market found it's final bottom in early 2013 around !146 again. This was the last support before the world starts to flourish... Families were being created at new rates, humanity was thriving & technological advancement was hitting all time highs. Everything seemed okay. --- Fast forward to 2019-2020 and the largest pharmaceutical fraud in humanity's existence appeared. Everyone was in a state of shock and disconcert that a bat virus would ruin humanity. When in reality... well that's for another time. Not only did it appear when the world was moving steady, but it was "discovered" around the same price range that the 2008 crash took place - !220. --- Not only does this add to the conspiracy, but it can give a little insight as to what the f* is going on... was this pandemic to pump the market to confirm new highs? Might we call this a "pumpdemic". The rich will always, get richer. --- Will we see brutal retaliation that we saw from over-leveraged institutions again? A question, asked by many. To be clear, yes. The markets are going to levels that no one will expect. This will be a rough time for the world, and supposing the truth comes out about the "pumpdemic", lord have mercy. --- During the 2008 housing futures crash, we saw a near ¬ -30% decrease over roughly ¬ 12 months. As of writing this (Nov, 2022), we have seen a ¬ -15% decrease over roughly ¬ 3 months. In spite of the fact; the world's population and development has greatly increased since 2009, technically we should see greater %'s, negative and positive due to our advancement. But, due to the fact the world is hanging on a thread of leveraged MANIA... during a "pandemic". There's a little more concern for the -15% over 3 months.... --- Anyways, We're not telling you to sell your real-estate... but instead keep an eye on what happens over the next 6-12 months- and have a decisive plan when making financial decisions. Here's our analysis We'll be back soon!
CME:CUS1!Short
by AlgoLab
7
BNX : BACK WHERE IT DID STARTS 2022 NEXT ONE?BNX, also known as BinaryX, is a project that supports the CyberDragon game on Binance Smart Chain (BSC). Initially, BNX was a decentralized protocol for trading derivatives, but the concept has since evolved to capitalize on the growing trend in the GameFi industry. Recent developments with BNX have shown that the coin is potentially at risk for a free fall in the coming time. This is due to the lack of normal DCA transactions, as well as a potential breakdown of the structure that has been in place since the start of 2022. While this does not guarantee that BNX will experience a free fall, it is a potential risk that investors should be aware of. In order to protect against this potential downside, investors may want to consider diversifying their portfolios and not putting all their eggs in one basket with BNX. Additionally, it may be wise to keep an eye on market conditions and make informed decisions based on the latest developments and trends. Overall, BNX has shown itself to be a resilient coin in the past, but like all investments, it carries some level of risk. By staying informed and making smart investment decisions, investors can potentially mitigate the potential downside of BNX. This is not trading advice, it's only a view of the market at this moment. Time will show or it will breakdown or not.
Long
by Goldenbreakout
10
FEDS DECISION We are still in a bear market.. but we need to worry about the Feds. As in on Dec 2nd of jobs data .. they added 263,000 more jobs added. But the economy are still slowing down. As in the Wall St.. fully agreed that SPX500&NAS100 will crash over 20% Also other reason. 1: USA just entered a recession 2: COVID-19 Epidemic cases are still rising and deaths.. also other diseases coming to place and new variants. If anyone still thinks we are bullish be extremely careful.. the bear market is NOT over. We are in December, Recession full effect is coming in 2023 we have Feds meeting coming Please memorize them it’s important.. for US30 we will see lots of further down.. or lower. FEDS MEETING DATES. Dec: 14th Inflation Data Dec: 15th Feds Decision ( Feds Powell will ether save the market or a lot worse.. will crash the market. )
U
by JoyBoyVegae
9
Bitcoin sell off coming.. biggest crash is coming as wellBig crash is coming and market is slowly collapsing. FTX started bankruptcy and the founder got arrested.. at the same time lost $6billion during the collapse; also another bad news that Sam bankman-fried lost 1$billion more.. even so the ex president seeks $6million funding recovery while alameda research the loss of $1billion on the following Clients back in 2021. Right now FTX is still collapsing while other Feds meeting this month are more to come. Target is at 13K with small buy and drop to 10K. December 2nd: Jobs Data. December 14th: inflation data. December 15th Feds decision ( save or crash the market)…
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
Volatility S&P 500 Index, Daily, The Upcoming Market Crash?I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly created flip zone (gray box on the chart) and a dynamic increase in volatility. Volatility means big drops or big gains. In the current macroeconomic situation, it is difficult to think about dynamic increases, especially this winter. The potential trade on VIX to rebound from the green zone and break through the peaks from March 2020 has as much as a 20:1 risk-reward ratio (SL under the zone). I am sure there will be even more great opportunities for this scenario on shorting, i.e., SP500, Nasdaq 100 or DAX.
TVC:VIXLong
by MichaelFX_ICT
6
BTC TOTAL MCAP CAPITULATION VERY SOON ?!!(URGENT)As you can see on this chart, the FIB circles lines perfectly confluence, and it shows that the subsequent capitulation is very near. I think the total market cap price will resist at the 200ma and fib 0.618 on the 4H chart. FIB CIRCLE 1.618 has been respected perfectly for the past 2 weeks and crossing it could mean a crash in next We are very close to crossing the respected Fib circle so ill be looking closely at how the next 4H candle will close. Stoch Rsi seems OVERBOUGHT. This is just an idea. NFA DYOR
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by bilguunb
1
BTC confirmed the bear flagIn this Bitcoin update can we see that the price confirmed the bear flag but need to confirm the 30k range to confirm a recession as this price range while when the price has confirmed the 25k range would the price be in a free fall period. This free fall line is confirmed by the 200 EMA on the Weekly time frame and if the price, with confirmation, would fall below this line would the price be in a free fall zone. This price range would also act as support in the past but this bearish confirmation is confirmed by the Ichimoku clouds showing bearish signs. Meaning that the price does not have tangible support or resistance more than guestimates and if the price would reach levels like the 20k range and the 10k range.
Short
by vf_investment
3