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Crash!!!!!

DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure. It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short. The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%) Best, Hard Forky The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows: - Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA - Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal . Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped: - DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation). - FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation). - MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence) - SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23 - BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence) - TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :) Is it possible, well it has happened before :) ... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again? Best, Hard Forky DJI - World's End Scenario
DJ:DJIShort
by hardforky
5
Gold TradingGold mid-term swing idea we are currently looking at. The Two setups provided are to account for the recent fundamental activity which caused havoc on the global markets as risk on mode ushered investors into buying #Gold (#XAU ), and other assets like #JPY as an example. Markets have priced in a possible risk scenario where $CS (Credit Suisse) one of the G-Sibs files for bankruptcy. This event has a high impact on the markets due to the significance of Credit Suisse. Today 15th March 2023 the Saudi National Bank have announced that they won't be able to support Credit Suisse further. As the bank itself has low deposits due to depositors rushing to withdraw their money the bank is on the brink of bankruptcy. At the time of writing this post, the Swiss Government is in talks with Credit Suisse discussing a possible bail-out. The current interest rate hikes have pushed many banks close to or over bankruptcy and due to the Fractional Reserve banking the banks have very low liquidity if any at all on their hands to cover a liquidity crunch. For example depositors en-masse run to the bank to withdraw their funds. To learn more and keep informed about Global Economics, follow our TradingView, and don't hesitate to message us! Join Us today to stay ahead! Any questions? Don't hesitate to reach out to us! We are here for you! If you'd like to reach out to the Founder personally you can! By finding him on TradingView: im_MrTony_ Thank you for your time and contribution to this post! If you'd like to see more don't forget to leave your ideas in the comment section and boost/like our post!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FastFx_Ltd
THE CRASH IS HEREThe S&P 500 has attempted a bullish break out in January 2023. The price stalled and started ranging right above previous resistance trend line. Today we see major sell pressure. If we close under temporary support line on my daily chart then we will see the stock market form it's next leg in a downtrend. This will be the longest leg downward. When price fails to breakout it tends to pull back harder and faster than it rallied. Kind of like a rubber band. You can stretch the rubber band upward but as soon as you let go of the rubber band. The opposite force of the rubber band will snap back faster and harder. On the chart, you'll see some green trend lines to where I project price of SPY will land. You can say it's a possible pivot point but honestly I really see the chart hitting 200's before we continue the next future bull cycle. See you guys in summer 2024 when the bulls return! Happy Trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trebor_Namor
4
Head N Shoulders On the DXY hey guys, With the bump today on the news officials are stepping in on the failing banks the DXY is completing the right shoulder and with the CPI data coming tomorrow and the PPI after that could be great catalyst to send it higher completing the head and shoulders pattern. Keep in mind no matter what the the data comes out the FED will only Pivot if financial conditions are in dire straits and all major market declines comes after the fed pivot not before. ie Fed pivots in 2007 crash in 2008, fed pivot jan 2000 market crash by Sep 2000.
TVC:DXYLong
by jackwheeler
Why SI Silvergate Capital Corporation Collapsed ? If you haven`t bought puts here: Then you should know that last week, Silvergate's stock plunged by up to 45% following the company's announcement that it would delay filing its annual report due to ongoing investigations by various regulatory bodies, including the U.S. Department of Justice. This led major players in the crypto industry, including Coinbase and Paxos, to sever ties with Silvergate. The second largest bank serving digital assets companies, Silvergate, announced that it would wind down its operations on March 8. Analysts attributed the decline to a loss of trust in the crypto industry following the FTX meltdown, as well as concerns raised by short sellers primarily on Twitter. Silvergate primarily serviced cryptocurrency firms, including FTX, which ultimately failed. I am still bearish on the outlook of this stock! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
1
SBNY Signature Bank next to Collapse? If you haven`t bought those 5X puts: Then you should know that Signature Bank's stock experienced its worst day on record following the collapse of SIVB Silicon Valley Bank and SI Silvergate. Due to high volatility, trading was suspended earlier in Friday's session, and the stock has continued to decline for five consecutive sessions. This downturn was triggered by the closure of Silvergate, the second major bank serving digital assets companies, as well as the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the 18th largest bank in the United States. It has been reported that Signature Bank had exposure to FTX. I am still bearish on the company and i believe it will reach the $34 - $63 area soon! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
Silver, You should dump your paper and buy some physicalOANDA:XAGUSD Paper trading things like silver and gold are a total joke. You who trade paper shares are trading in mostly fake, extremely diluted, worthless shares. Your paper certificate is diluted somewhere on a ratio of 900 paper shares to every actual physical once of silver. Soon enough, actual silver will decouple itself from these made up paper shares. When it decouples, physical silver will go through the roof, and the silver paper market will crash, because it will be no longer tied to silvers actual spot. It is a massive risk to be involved in paper shares of anything that is diluted so much, its insane. Hard times are very close, the crash is right around the corner. Best invest in physical, or if not, be aware of the risks that come with the paper market. Also. To those using technical analysis on Silver or Gold.. It does not work so well, especially right now, because precious metals have too much reaction to financial instability and economic crisis. I wish all a great day and to stay strong in the hard time that will come upon us all. Prayers. Strength and Unity.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by PookieSmasher
COLLAPSEIt has been a year since I contemplate the evolution of prices, analyze patterns every day, compare indicators, technical and fundamental signals, watching speculation in full swing, levers reaching new records, states with the help of central banks flooding the market with liquidity. Some have asked for my news, here it is. In January 2018 they laughed at me when i called the explosion of the crypto bubble, now i think the US market top is near. Buying stocks now is crazy. Shorting it is always risky, but here we are. Since their creation, markets have soared and then collapsed : I don't see why this time would be any different. To discerning eyes a graph is enough I don't need to say more. Wish me good luck, I wish you too. If you want to thank me, criticize me, insult me or question me in the comments space is all up to you.
TVC:SPXShort
by KassandrA_dotcom
20
US100: A free fallHello Traders! Welcome back to another post with analyst Aadil1000x. The next few steps are not good for the buyers as there is a high probability of free fall. There is a channel that was broken hard and now there is expanding triangle. This expanding triangle will work as a strong bearish but first, there will be a bullish move to activate some orders. This fall will take it below the key zone which is at 11300 support. There is a True reversal point at 12340.1 and most probably it will work with pinpoint accuracy. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
UShort
by Aadil1000x
2
CHATGPT crashes and Microsoft rejects the 200 day moving averageChatGPT went down world wide at the open of trading Monday causing MSFT to reject a retest of the 200 day moving average. This could add more structural problems in VOL since hedged equity and option flows are weakest until next week. My target is 248 today with an extension possible as low as 245. These AI fumbles are a good sign that AI is still a slave to human mistakes and errors. See how this plays out but certainly is a headwind to the bullish break higher in tech NVDA is another AI moving stock to watch if this is a rejection it may add to an acceleration to the downside. I'll likely get out of short position if ChatGPT comes back online.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SPYvsGME
1
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32