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Crash!!!!!

Why Good News Crashes Markets"But the news wasn't that bad, why is the market falling??" When news or economic data hits the wire, markets move. Many traders are left scratching their heads, trying to come up with an explanation for why the market tanks on good news or rallies on bad news. Don't waste your time. It turns out, news is usually just a catalyst that allows momentum traders to profit off of a position they've already established, or lays the groundwork for their next trade. As an example, take the overnight session preceding this morning's PPI print. First, size traders accumulated (bought) under VWAP. Then, they drove the price up around 12am, and proceeded to distribute (sell) for a profit above VWAP. Look at where the majority of volume was transacted, the VPOC. When this moves above VWAP, it tells you distribution may be done. What happens next? Size traders have made their money for the night, and no longer provide a bid. As soon as news or data comes out, they allow price to fall and may even sell into it. And the cycle starts over again, now at an even better (lower) price. Understanding this has helped me immensely; I sincerely hope it helps you too. Questions? Hit me up in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by gr8fultrading
2
Bitcoin Worst crash in history is near Need y’all to take a second. Don’t say we are Bullish ( FALSE ALARM) , especially don’t say we are bottom .. FALSE ALARM. Biggest Crash for bitcoin will be far worse than the Covid-19 crash back in 2020. The bearish downtrend is becoming aggressive further more the more depth to it so listen up. The bear market isn’t over as far we know it’s over, the Feds still will continue to increase rate hike to fight off the inflation and this is bitcoin biggest challenge that never happened before but the very first time this year. Recession started since June of this year and again more than twice the Feds decline that USA is in the Recession.. this will be the worse case scenario. The central bank , CEO’s and global that Recession will take Full effect in the year of 2023.. things will get very ugly. Also Russia is using nukes , Ukraine using nukes , North Korea is using Nukes and USA will be using Nukes.. as Biden said about the starting of. Nuclear war is coming and will fight and use Nuclear weapons FYI WORLD WAR III is around the corner. As for bitcoin we aren’t bottom but still in the huge downfall, 19K area down to 17690 area can’t hold it much longer as the crash is coming. Still expecting the buy at 10K area but there’s more to it it’s possible high possible will drop pass deeper than that the strong support zone floor was been found from between 6000-5000 area. Only if 10K support bottom don’t hold. Don’t trust any short buy opportunity otherwise you will get spiked off very quickly because it’s very volatile. Trade safe and opinion of your comments and thanks for the 1K opportunity let’s hit 1.5K or 2K as the next milestone. See you the bottom zone for bitcoin and please save money and recession will be a lot worse than 2008.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
Shorting EUR again, now on the pullback.The euro, as well as all its correlated currencies and related products, crossed critical support levels a few weeks ago and right now is in a pullback within the mid-term downtrend. The mid- and long-term trend are in phase 4 (bearish), and the RSI on the monthly chart is 23.32, which make it unreasonable to hold it. After our shorts and currency strategies a few weeks ago, right now we are 50% in EUR and 50% in USD (take into account we are, mostly, European based), but we will advance everything to USD to follow the trends of the world economy and the recession in the next months. Trade: Financial engineering: cash, not derivatives. Time horizon: >6 months. Risk mgmt: +20% of our treasury Exits: We do not contemplate exits for now, but we are active quant traders and monitor the market daily.
Short
by blockmas
Macro Bear Market JUST beginning??BTC is in a very dangerous spot right now, people aren't losing their jobs fast enough (unemployment at 3.5%!!) and Netflix keep on raising subscription prices in Ukraine (war!!!) The FED might have to issue more hikes all the way to 2024, mid terms are also coming which is historically bearish for extreme risk assets (BTC??!!) TA wise, BTC is forming an extremely BEARISH descending triangle (explosive move?,!!) which could see 3k target in no time Trade wisely and close any longs, cut your losses if required as this will get MUCH much worse Macro-economical factors seem to be pointing to a structural bear market could take up to 111 months for full recovery (according to Goldman Sachs) Please share this idea as I will be providing more tips on how to navigate a full blown financial collapse!! CAREFUL
Short
by deathtotrade
5
Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI: Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI has no room to be in Extended Range any longer. With Stocks and inflational products keeps going lower. Dollar domination is just getting stronger and VIX is still supressed relative to history. All this is about the breakout to the upside. Oil will reach 65 WTI price this month because of producers price is at 65. This price will get consumer back in rough times. Consumer spending in oil/gas is at lowest level. Remember supply and demand. Oil has been trading in static trading range, meaning oil price will go lower in time not higher. There is too much oil stored and prices are just pumped by inflation and war. Everything that has inflational status will go down hard still. See 50-70% drop still in stockmarket and so with energy prices. 10x natural gas is not sustainable either. Be ware and take care. Best Regards R.B
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PivotX
3
S&P and DJIA bearish flag to come?Stock market has still stayed in a bearish market structure. Observing multiple bull rallies throughout since February/March 2022. And bull rallies will continue so long as market sentiment continues to expect a more negative month/quarter than it actually is, although still in a decline versus previous month/quarter. We can tell bearish market sentiment from the recent economic data releases where: Forecast < Actual < Previous Forecast is lower than the actuals, and actuals being lower than previous We are in a decline, but expectations were that of a faster decline which is not happening. The economy remains resilient, and this will mean the FED needs to do more to hamper down on inflation. Expecting more aggressive rate hikes, where on the announcements, stock market is expected to make a move lower.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
A1000x True reversal Point 21429Hello Trader! Welcome back with another episode with Analyst Aadil1000x. Yesterday I was expecting a crash from 20625 but after looking multiple times I have figured out a strong reversal point, Yesterday I told you the surety of the trade was not more than 75% but this time the surety is more than 90%. Normally I don't take entries until I am 100% satisfied but yesterday's decision was quick as there was a trendline breakout. A trendline breakout is a great opportunity for short. There is a trendline breakout that is starting from the peak and a trendline breakout towards the upside is not a good opportunity for buyers but it is the best opportunity for the sellers. After detecting trendline breakout we just have to figure out the perfect short position and the perfect short position is from 21429 A1000x True reversal point. I am expecting the reversal with pinpoint accuracy. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
Short
by Aadil1000x
BTCUSD BEAR MARKET IS NOT OVERStop trusting short buys especially good buy zone that you will never know will cause a major “ BULL-TRAP” just an FYI. We are still in a bear market and we are not bullish yet.. if you put your big money in please get in a sell out you will go negative ..Zero, you don’t need that. The relief rally that the Feds send and nobody never seen that coming. 1: RUSSIA IS USING NUKES 2: NORTH KOREA USING NUKES 3: FEDS WONT EASE UP AGAINST INFLATION 4: WAR IS HAPPENING AT TAIWAN. We are going to see the biggest crash In crypto history and this will be very ugly because… In 2023 RECESSION WILL GO FULL EFFECT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
25% Crash incomingHello Traders! Welcome back to another episode with Analyst Aadil1000x. First of All, we are Closing our Previous buy holding which is CHRusdtperp(+8.8%x10), WOOusdtperp(+6.5%x10) & BATusdt at the entry position. After A long time Market broke the trendline starting from the peak. The Breakout towards upward is never a good idea to go long. I am posting the Examples below so that you can see what happens after the breakout. Selling exactly at the trendline is also not a good decision. The perfect time to sell/short is to let the market break the trendline and then find a perfect position to sell or look at your indicators to turn red to short the trade. There is a true reversal point at 20625 where we will short the trade. The true reversal point is the point that is supposed to work with pinpoint Accuracy. This means i am not expecting a strong drawdown but in case the market does not move down then for safety we have a stop loss and the stop loss is small so that we don't lose big. The accuracy of the True reversal point is 60-70%, so don't put big in this. Previously I gave 100% surety of moving up in 'WOO' and 'CHR' because that was a different kind of strategy and its accuracy is 100% but this trade is cracked using a true reversal point whose accuracy is less than 75% so take your risk Accordingly. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
Short
by Aadil1000x
7
S&P Broadening wedge formation complete. Top is in.S&P index prints a rare and complete broadening formation with failed breakout, historically an accurate indicator of the top of a market. What continues to amaze me is that the S&P is an index, yet still behaves in a very reliable manner in printing these patterns. Most significantly, it fires a broadening formation through the evergrande scare, it tests the trendline inside of the broadening formation. It fails the retest of support and goes on a breakout below the trendline. It completes a broadening formation, ending the final tap with a clear period of consolidation (more visible on smaller timeframes.) In this period, it forms a perfect descending triangle into the trend line, fails to breakout after forming to price agreement (even though there is none as this asset isn't traded), and falls. All of this is behaviour I would expect from a traded asset. And, incredible S&P TSX (ticker: TSX:TSX) behaves identically. I've mostly charted crypto so, to me, this is absolutely amazing to watch unfold and has turned me on to trading stock and analyzing the broader market and economies very quickly. The price tests the 100 day EMA a couple times and cuts below. Watch for the 200 day ema - then we're doomed. DJI prints below 200 day EMA w/ death cross. I don't know why people are calm right now - don't you see what's happening??? We see it! We see it in the data! Warn everyone you know. I've been digging into the news and watching the charts, and it seems to me that there is this strange, beautiful, fractal-esque pattern in nature I can observe. I can say to my parents while I'm begging them to sell on the 13th: "It's almost as if you can predict bad news" and then the market moves right on schedule to keep the pattern forming. This keeps unfolding beautifully and I'm telling them what I see. A bear was born in september. I hope you welcome me to your family. I've avidly scoured all public data and learned about its meaning from m0 + m2 to many other pieces of public data available. I see it unfolding and it's beautiful, but there is no doubt in my mind that this will be the most catastrophic global economic/financial event witnessed in history. I don't understand the world anymore. I'm blown away by the magic I see in the numbers. And I'm scared as shit about what's to unfold. Here is my play: Cash is trash, but the markets are going to risk off. I'm making very short term plays in crypto right now with tight stop limits, only trading _INSIDE_ the trend line, not trading breakouts. I believe crypto will crash before Oct 17th along with other markets as investor confidence is rattled. Traditional stock market will likely continue to deteriorate, while crypto will have a faster, more worry-some fall near-term, but once people figure out they need a safe store of value, will boom. I will be holding USDC (not USDT) probably on an exchange other than binance, and try to be ready for a flash crash. At the same time I'm (in canada) setting up TFSA guarded stock trading platform to move all savings (already in a TFSA) into gold, silver, platinum, etc. I'll probably follow Michael Burry and bet that inflation rises soon. I want to be very careful as gold could move with crypto as people sell into cash before realizing crash is trash so I'm waiting for that complete dumping of everything onto the markets as they start to crash, and then buy there, and wait for people to start holding commodities and crypto when they realize their cash may not be worth anything. Through this period, crypto looks like a risk to fiat so I expect other governments to follow china and try to ban transactions with crypto and gold (as was the case prior to 1933 when fiat was introduced en.wikipedia.org) Housing will crash so we have the opportunity of the lifetime if we can figure out how to hold value and boost it in this event. The younger generations can potentially own a home after all if we position ourselves for this. Worst case (or soonest case, anyway): I expect, just on the data, a recovery into October that looks to retail like a real recovery while the rich dump their assets. Then, buckle up. We're making history. Best case (bigger crash later): The fed prints more money, the US takes on more debt, the economy booms in the markets but fails in the real world until another day when the cracks begin to appear again. At this point, I think enough people see what's happening that there isn't any recovery. The markets have already crashed, you just don't feel it yet.
SP:SPXShort
by decklyndubs
12
Sell for BTCUSD CRASH Q4 coming Bearish pattern , bearish pennant.. 1HR-4HR Chart bear flag forming from descending channel from the triangle. The bear candle is stronger from that drop rejection. Trade safe and it’s very volatile .. we should be expecting the big drop along the Q4 to crash the price. 10K is the strong floor target for the bulls opportunity to recover very hard; if the recovery didn’t happen then should expect even lower than 10K we will see. OCT 13th is the CPI Data Feds meeting for the inflation Should expect the Feds pivot of November 2nd if not then sometime around December.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
8
Ethereum pump to create high volume double top then crash?From the perspective of chart patterns, i expect this next pump to create a double or triple top type of pattern. I have cleaned up the chart and drawn rough lines to show what i anticipate will occur. The overall play is to short around 1370-1400 depending on signals on the smaller time frame and then wait for a crash to 1250 and below. This could take between 12 and 36 hours to play out depending on how slow price movement is. Technical target for the double top would be between 1120-1150. The lines are no means there to show exact price movement, just wanted to show rough trajectory and to emphasize the patterns.
Short
by sven101
US30 - Recession Outlook - Con'tI adjusted wave 6 on the current chart to the current downside move. Haven't been looking at US30 for awhile, but been focusing more on the S&P chart. Either way, the pattern is the same. Market is playing out, kind of as forecasted based on charts published months back. Are we there yet? At wave 5, the market was going "are we there yet?" Then the market shown that it is still strong. We had a bear rally where retail traders/investors continued to buy into. The buying-the-dip movement was still still going strong strong too, and the economy was declining but still not as bad as it seemed to be. There was still some optimism in the market. But all of that was perhaps short sellers taking profit at a key level where price broke a fairly strong resistance. The rebound above strong resistance on 1W above 31,450. Damn, this shit is real Now wave 6, it looks to me as the "oh shit, things are not actually getting better" phase. We continued the downtrend, posting a 2nd negative month consecutive bearish candle with a top wick that didn't break above previous candle body, a huge bearish body and very small lower wick. Are we going up? Looking at the 2008 crash pattern, we do see some ranging before the final drop, then recovery. It looks to me like a "we going up?" phase. Then price dips further to a "value price point", and market pivots, it will then be time to buy on a higher low, close back within the previous ranging price points. Just on charts, probably looking to see how markets react around 26,600, if the market finds a bottom. But I'm also expecting this time to be different as we had so much money printing. We're in an environment where we are rising interest rates to try to combat inflation, yet faced with a recessionary outlook. Also, with a pandemic which just passed, geopolitical events, war. Truly uncertain times.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
Summer BummerRally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder. DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?! Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do not be a bagholder! So many talking about "where it goes now the bottom is in" is pure delusion. This is a BEAR Market. Bottom is NOT in. Possible local Low in October? How long it takes and where the final low comes is pure guesswork. Might be... April?! Worst is yet to come IMO. Gotta have monster gaps down, trip limitdown halts, -3K days with true capitulation, VIX spike. This is NOT a good time to invest in risk assets folks. If you are not a shortseller then GTFO this nutty market. Big boys WILL take most or all of your money if you try to buy this beast.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
44