IMPORTANT TO WATCH FOR THE WHOLE CRYTPO MARKET!!!THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT. I would like to show you this analysis of the entire crypto market. As you see on the chart, I have drawn an important zone: The Golden Harmonic Zone. This zone is based on the AB=CD patterns, as you can see there.
What is very important is that if that zone that is there, fully gets respected, then that area could be the high for the next few weeks if you expect an even longer bear market (possible crash).
If you would see this as a short setup, you would have to wait until she respects that golden zone and then go below the 1.965T mark with a daily candle and we close below it. THEN YOU REALLY HAVE TO BE CAREFUL BECAUSE GOD WHO KNOWS WHERE WE ARE BEACHING DOWN. If that happens, it is better to take short positions. Remember: buy low, sell high.
These things are the financial markets: everything could happen and can be possible!
KEEP IN MIND: THIS IS A BEARISH PERSPECTIVE/SCENARIO OF THE MARKET. NO LONG SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN COVERED IN THIS ANALYSIS!!!
𝘼 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙪𝙗𝙨𝙘𝙧𝙞𝙗𝙚 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙚 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙!
Thank you and have a good one
Crash!!!!!
Bitcoin reversal. Crash likely to reach the 1.618 Fib line,After thorough analysis of a range of fractals and reversing the Fib retracement as seen on the chart, I have come to the conclusion that it is very likely that a rapid crash to the 200 day MA on the weekly timeframe is to happen. The 200 day MA on the weekly perfectly coincides with the 1.618 Fib line of the reversed retracement tool. This would make the sequence complete, ready to start the climb to a new ATH.
SPX at critical resistance point right now.Just a very quick TradingView exclusive update on the PSX. Today we are at a critical point and i believe it is more likely this creates selling pressure to at least visit the 100-day MA before continuing a decline. this could be a slow decline or very fast if we head into a crash. We need to be watchin if the FED reverses policy which they may not considering inflation. There is a Russia scape goat right now though i could see as a potential to be blamed for many of our own politically stupid economic moves over the decades. If the FED turns around, starts printing, lending increases, government spends like drunken sailors, expect the SPX to rise nominally but he question becomes, what does it buy you? if those things increase at a faster rate when what does the stock matter? i think commodities are going to win in this long term inflation battle along with this war happening. At least for now as government could create rationing orders that could smash profits from companies and even put them out of business. This is going to be a wild next ten years. Stay Classy TradingView.
BITCOIN BREAKOUT?! OR CRASH TO 30K?! ALL RANGES!Hey everyone
Today i show you my Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis.
In this chart you can see THE most important support and resistance we currently have on Bitcoin.
Since December 2021 Bitcoin broke down the big bullish uptrend and since then we are down almost -40%.
In my opinion Bitcoin is NOT bullish until we not breakout $44500 - $46000. That breakout would confirm a pump to $50000 area which you can see on the chart.
If we even manage to breakout $52000 - $53500 im really bullish on BTC and expect at least a rise up to $60000.
Overall i think we will see a breakout to $52000 - $53500 and then a dump back to even $30100 - $28500.
What are the important areas we have to watch on BTC?
- from $65000 to $69100
- from $52000 to $53500
- from $44500 to $46000
- from $28500 to $30100
- from $21900 to $24300
Is there a way to trade all the ranges?
- Yes. A good opportunity to Short Trade BTC is from $52000 - $53500
- Aswell a Long Trade on BTC from $28500 - $30100
I hope you guys like my idea
NEXT LEG DOWN SET IWM The chart posted is one of the most important charts as it s decline was a perfect A=C IN A ABC TO .382 I have a panic cycle to start and be in full force on march 25th and the bottom for this year in the bear market is due april 7/10 date I have moved out of ALL LONGS ACROSS THE INDEXES AND I am now 100 % short sp 4511 and qqq at 354.6
Sell off might start again today ??Hey Guys, So last trading idea played out perfectly and we have had the rally expected and the first point of major resistance has no been reached. The US100 has rallied extremely hard to flush out all the Puts on the market expiring Friday and had pushed the RSI on the hourly to major overbought readings. This reading and seeing we are at a strong resistance (past price action, 50 MA, Fib level) I see us sell of to at least cool off the overbought signals. The VIX is also giving us a clue with it pulling back to the trend line set out last throughout the last few rallies (chart Below) . My first target is the 13900 level as we have the Fib level with previous price action showing resistance and support here with it being so close to a solid number of 14000 if it broke here then that would be a major sign the market sell of continues. I dont know if that will happen though and could also seeing us just test the 13900 before bouncing higher and falling off later in the year to line up with seasonality. Will have to see closer to the target.
Fundamentally, with the FED still tightening and even keeping the door open to raising rates faster then .25% each meeting and running off their balance sheet more pain is to come. Reinforcing this will be the next few month Inflation Data, these should be quite high giving the commodity boom and now China COVID outbreak again stressing supply chains and adding cost.
LAST US100 LONG FOR NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE BIG DROPHello traders,
Following my Elliott Waves analysis, we can tell that we are in the Wave B of the C for the first down trend correction of the US100.
In my opinion for the last long:
- We are going to reach for the first objective 14482-14572 before dropping (which is the 123%-127% of extension) of the green ABC of the Orange B.
- The second objective, is at 15036, which is the 161%, but it is less likely to reach it...we never know with the volatility of the US100
After the objectives reached, we willl be dropping to:
- My strongest objective which is 11731, for the 113% of extension of the purple ABC, which is also the yellow 50% objective of the entire IMPULSIVE wave since COVID-2019 crash.
(see the red 38.2% objective that have been respected)
Bitcoin 2021 Bear MarketThe current Bitcoin sentiment is very bullish, the majority of people are expecting the new mega bull run to start now, and are laughing at the idea of prices below 6k (hell, they are laughing at the idea below 20k too).
There are 3 main features of any market peak:
Good News (PayPal and Banks started to use Crypto, institutions buying crypto, etc)
Parabolic increase in price (just look at the chart)
FOMO / People irrationally bullish (We got that too)
I am expecting the bottom to hit around the end of 2021 / early 2022 at $2,400 . If the drop takes too long to happen, BTC can make a higher low (6k-ish). Timing will be key here.
You may be thinking that 2.4k is absurd, but aside from all the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci calculations I used, let's have a look at the underlying psychological aspect.
Around late 2017, the masses were exposed to Bitcoin. This is when the major hype began. Tons of people have been opening longs during the last 3 years while Bitcoin ranged sideways with fake FOMO rallies, further accumulating the retail longs.
Now, you gotta ask yourself - if the masses are opening longs, and the price will indeed rally now, who is going to pay out their profits later?
The world just doesn't work that way, there's no free money.
Which is why, I believe that all those retail 'investors' that bought Bitcoin for the long term, and have been very patiently waiting for the bull run - are going to get liquidated once they see new lows.They will simply lose it, sell everything and proclaim Bitcoin a dead scam.
If your argument is that "institutions are buying BTC", then all I have to say on the matter is: They are most likely hedging even bigger shorts in private, leading the masses onto the slaughter to profit in billions from it. Remember, they aren't here to make you rich, they are here to make themselves rich.
Once Bitcoin gets rid of the extra baggage (those longs accumulated over 3/4 years), it will proceed with the great bull run of 2022-2024, reaching $100,000 and more.
Now, of course, they can't just crash the market without an excuse. Which is why the media will probably blame COVID-21 and/or Tether imploding.
-Hawk
If you are interested in more frequent analysis, feel free to visit the Alien Crew Discord community, link below.
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes!
•Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻
written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022
Central European Time ( CET )
S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it)
The TA:
We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross.
•Almost every
indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term.
94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed.
shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87.
34.27/16.88*100≈ 203%
203-100= 103%
This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued.
•The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline
suggests that a Market Value to
GDP ratio of 120% to be
fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time)
What is going on in the world?
•Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive.
•The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash:
•The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof.
•Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one.
•The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com
Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years.
•Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines.
•canadian tv reminding people that bank
deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well).
•billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands.
•Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions
•Palantir warns people of a black swan event.
•energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation.
•reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time.
•Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me.
•Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble?
•With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%).
•fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off)
•stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it.
•supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything.
•Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index)
•historic records amount of margin:
When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage?
•We printed a ton of money during the
COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020
march crash, the stock market recovered
insanely fast, even when the economy was
falling. The recovery happened because we
printed so much money to support the
company's (not because the businesses were
performing great). -->
•The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%.
Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem,
the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost
every business was experiencing massive
losses while their stock price was
skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession.
•Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is
going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction.
"The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com
"It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation).
Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio.
Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania.
r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble
So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels.
This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued.
Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors".
•Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This
•Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD.
They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt.
So who are the biggest bagholders of the
$305B in bad bonds? -->
There are several American and Canadian
banks that Evergrande ows money to:
First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada
which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a
Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt.
If you were wondering why there was that
weird after hours - the stock dropped 64%
during AH in one day, but then they fixed the
"glitch" and the price went back up.
RBC looked worthless and this was just the
real view of the bank's financial state when
the bonds hit zero.
The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s)
THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!!
Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does
everything going on in the world right now. If this
ends up happening it will be a fantastic
buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go
higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is
inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it
will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon.
Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when
the market could fall 50% or more? You can
cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of
the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the
amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss).
Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
Ethereum poised to a big crash - full anlaysis on BitCoke [1]Ethereum, the backbone of crypto bull market from 2020-2021, has undertaken a serious plummet from its peak starting October 2021. The downtrend precipitated from December and continued to the middle of January this year, the price made a bottomed at $2300 and started to recovered to some extent, even able breaking above $3000.
Over the past 4-6 weeks Ethereum price has gone through some ups and downs, following the pace of the real world political & economic events. From the weekly chart standpoints, the price has consolidated between the range $2300-3000, form a triangle that most likely constitutes a continuation pattern in a bear market, signifying more downside to come.
It's worth mentioning that in the chart the recent price bounce even failed to reach the downtrend line. It means the price strength has become much weaker than last month.
That said, the most logic move for Ethereum is to continue falling. Besides, I don't see there are any positive factors in the near future that support a bottoming around $2500. Ukraine is a mess. Inflation is out of control which reduces the buying power of people's savings. Blockchain technology doesn't make new breakthroughs, with existing theme including defi, gamefi, NFT losing appeals.
I predict the price of Ethereum will break down key technical and psychological level of $2000 in the coming 2-3 months.
$AAPL - Apple is starting to weaken in this correction!Apple gapped below the 200 day moving average today, and we even saw some baerish follow up during the day. Apple below the 200 day moving average is very significant, happens rarely and if it happens, usually we see a bigger correction then.
We are in a pretty solid channel atm, with decent reactions at the supply and demand side. Should we break that channel though, first watch for the grey box to find support in there, as it is the golden zone (.382 - .618) from Covid low to ATH Fibonacci.
IF that box should be broken as well, we are poised for that huge gap close at around 100$, Apple has ALOT of gaps in it's chart, but i think that gap is so big, and marks the break of 100$ and got never backtestet, since we broke out back then, wouldn't be weird at all, if the market should decide to backtest that. .786 retrace, which would be considered deep value would correlate to pre covid ATH.
Watch this chart guys, this is probably the indicator, of what we can expect from the broad market, we need Apple above 200 day EMA, or things might get really dicey.
Stay safe !!
New trend line for the S&P? 4th industrial revolution starting?Is there a new trend line on the horizon for the S&P 500 and the market overall? I compare different trend lines including what I guess to be ultra bears like Peter Schiff & Jeremy Grantham's trend line.
If we are entering the 4th industrial revolution, that people like Cathie Wood & Klaus Schwab are talking about, I think we should expect a new trend line to appear. One that is a step change in the ongoing growth of the overall market compared to the old trend line of ~7.5% More time is needed to see what the new trend will ultimately be, but it seems obvious that growth has accelerated in recent time with more companies than ever growing revenue at rates higher than 40%, 50%, 60%, and even 100% a year.
Major Crashes and the Federal Funds RateThe last three major crashes and recessions have been preceded by a period of interest rate hikes by the Fed.
Each hike since the 1970s has gotten less and less far before the economy rolled over, calling for an emergency rate cut.
There are many reasons for this, including the deflationary impact of demographics and globalisation, as well as the ever increasing debt burden around the world.
This has caused us to want lower and lower rates, and to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) when the rates bottom out and cannot be reduced further.
Each time the rates are hiked. Each time the Fed eventually realises the economy cannot cope and performs an emergency rate cut.
Each time in the last three cycles, this came too late, and a crash ensued.
A trendline can be drawn to estimate where the rate hikes could go this time before history begins to rhyme. Incidentally, this is also what the bond market is pricing in right now.
With spiralling inflation, the Russia crisis and the energy prices, the pressure to hike rates is extreme. However, the economy is slowing, the earnings are stalling, and the stimulus is spent.
China's economy has already stalled to the point where its government has cut rates, even in the face of inflation.
When will the US be next?
Unless the Russia/Ukraine situation stabilises soon, this chart is probably conservative.
NIO 14.50 PT BY MARCH 16 NIO will be at 14.50 give or take .50 on or by March 16. The On Balance Volume shows strong selling pressure on NIO, with a clear downtrend channel.
Couple these technical facts with the FED rate hike in one week, and earnings approaching (which I predict to be less than pleasant, given the Geo-Political and economic climate the past two months) NIO will have a hard time breaking resistances.
Coming crash-Ukraine war Crash is coming and bearish bear became stronger and worrisome at Ukraine.
Russia destroyed military base near polish border; further more attacks western Ukraine and become offensive, also China aided to meet tension with the Russians towards Ukraine; even so trump told Biden to try to end the ukraine war otherwise will lead to nuclear world war aka WWIII.
Markets has been weakened from the event still happening and we will be seeing the bear market shortly.
Is Gold going to $100,000? The short answer is 'I don't know'.
What I know is what everybody can see that Gold has broken out.
I look into some of the price action - and it gets wilder as we move deeper up in the trend.
There are no predictions in this chart.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy.
In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns.
Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022.
Evergrande’s massive debt pileup
Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects.
Another Lehman Brothers moment
The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis.
These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year.
However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk.
Beijing steps in to limit fallout
To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion.
In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market.
Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns."
Light at the end of the tunnel
It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations.
However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015.
Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year.
Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.