Crash!!!!!
FACEBOOK: Was the crash a good sign or a bad one?On balance I am not optimistic. I think this market will struggle to close the gap.
FB lost $230 billion in one day. The CEO lost $30 billion. I can't even begin to think what that feels like.
In the video I compare the current gap of some 30% with a similar gap of ~20% back in 2018.
This video is for deep thought. There are no predictions here.
Alternative perspectives with reasoning and facts, are most appreciated.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SPY - Now vs. Leading up to 2008 CrashThought I'd take a look at the similarities/differences between price action now and in 2008.
Obviously, it's the movement over two different windows of time (the '08 chart is over a much longer amount of time than the '22 chart).
Found a couple similarities. Lol.
Past doesn't indicate the future, obviously. But I thought it was interesting enough to share.
IS GOOGLE READY TO RECOVER FROM ITS CRASH ?I think that google is long for the moment, the stock could still crash again and go lower but then recover again, we can see that google is a very stable stock and his movements are perturbed by things going in the world these days
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Hyperinflation coming by 2030 in the US. Can it be true? Who does it benefit? Check out the M2 money supply vs the S&P 500. Clearly, the more that is printed the more assets increase. Owning assets is your best bet of financial survival. The poor will be crushed but being wealthy in that time is not pretty either. This has been talked about for years by people like Robert Kiyosaki, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney, and so many more. Milton Friedmans Free To Choose on YT has a great explanation about inflation I recommend everyone look at. This chart is monthly and if we are truly looking at a long-term time horizon, it looks clear this trend is not changing. Usually, these don't change until it implodes on a government.
Be watching commodities over the next decade if you are a long-term player. I will be stacking those chips along with crypto in the Defi world and other dividend-paying stocks with cash flow real estate as a backup. This market we are heading into is going to test everyone's asset allocations to the extreme.
#crash #inflation #depression #marketcollapse # hyperinflation
BTC LIGHTS OUT, SUB 30KThis idea leans a bit more on speculation, but it is something that's crossed my mind recently.
Given the IMF practicing for cyber-attacks specifically aimed at the global financial system, it gives worry of a covid like crash that'll break support at 30k.
Not to mention how close the current price action is now resembling the price action of back in March 2020. Take a look at the trend line on the chart image below:
It is the single most important trend line to hold in order to ensure that the bull run continues . The same goes for the PoC, sitting around 46k. If we break it along w/ the white trendline, it's a wrap. BBWP indicator has confirmed the end of consolidation moving into volatility... that I believe will head to sub 30k levels.
Key lines of support and resistance are identical to the previous idea linked below.
The likelihood of this entire idea playing out to be invalidated would be if we break above the prev high near 52K.
Rip Grichka Bogdanoff, may your phone calls ring beyond the grave .
Will it be lower? Many things tell me YES! 🆘🆘☠️XRPHello everyone,
We are approaching a very strong, downward trendline, from which we bounced twice lowering the price.
It is very likely that it will be the same at this point.
ONCHAIN data shows that a lot of BITCOINs have been deposited on exchanges. Which could mean a whale play with this trendline to dips.
My first target is $ 0.51, if the candle closes below I expect an elevador down.
A conference on the regulation of stablecoins is to be held on February 15.
I predict negative information, which will contribute to further downhill rides. Even around $ 0.35, where there will be capitualation.
Many people think that this is a hole, but in my opinion it is not the end of the downhill ride.
Cryptocurrencies are the future and they will do anything to get you out of here :)
Comment and like,
Greetings
$SPY Head & Shoulders (Weekly/Daily)As we all have, I have been tweaking my spy pattern as we get through this crazy month. More and more everyday SPY seems to be self fulfilling this pattern. We can see on the two hour that the "head" of the H&S is another pattern within itself, further causing me to believe we are leading up to a massive drop. As we watch next week if the market continues to chop & drop at this level we could be seeing 375-380 soon.
Silver Still bearish Hey guys, This is a follow up to my last silver post against stating the fact in the short-medium term Silver and the overall market travel together. Obviously not to the same percentages but direction, This is why Silver is a great indicator to overall market direction. I still feel Silver will fall to at least the C line before consolidating which would work with the us100 falling again over the next week. If Silver closes below the green line with that bearish candle it will be a quick fall to that Sub $20 mark. These points are also backed by the DXY gaining momentum after its little pullback.
Paypal full cycle
PYPL - Elliott Wave Analysis
From the first day of listing we see a 5 waves up, an impulsive wave up, with something very interesting: Wave 5 is almost a truncation or failure. Which it meant that the fallowing correction will be very dramatic.
That is exactly what it happened.
From the top of wave 5 $309 price we see a big drop the unfolding correction. So far we had wave A subdivided in 5 waves as in the graphic above, Wave B corrective subdivided in a-b-c-d-e traveling sideways.
I see Wave C unfolding in 5 waves down. With the bottom in the region of $68-$83 supported by the guideline of equality between waves A and C and the previous support held by the price.
Disclaimer: This is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
If you want more stock analysis like this please send me a message.
1929 Crash Fractal in the DJIA ?In one of my previous posts I was trying to see if we would get a 1987 plunge in the markets. This did not happen, but we did get a fairly standard decline and market correction.
The question now is, will the mini bear down move be over and off to new highs? Or do we have something much more sinister in store for us as far as the DJIA.
Google gets some blowout earnings and the mood seems to be improving on the recent snap back rally.
But now we are faced with a key question as far as the DJIA goes. The DJIA will soon hit the bear down trend line.
Not only that but the decline in the DJIA in terms of form, looks similar to the form of the beginning of the 1929 style CRASH. The time symmetry is lacking, but here is what is similar:
A. The 1929 final rally was a fib .618 retracement that got STOPPED right under the bear down trend line, then after that was the 45% plunge
B. The number on the current DJIA pricing for a .618 retracement is 35,500. WATCH that number very closely in the DJIA to see how it reacts to it and does it get STOPPED there.
During the fierce rallies in the market it always seems like the bear scenarios die quickly. And that may actually be the case. In fact the market could bust up through the downtrendline sometime next week and blast higher. So the key will be to watch the price action very carefully for STALLING.
If I see enough stalling then I may go heavily short at what may be a critical FINAL high in the market.
The backdrop is still murky. We have rates rising. The TLT bond etf looks like it will soon CRASH down which means rates crash UP. The size of the bond market is orders of magnitude larger than the stock market. And if I recall correctly what really tanked the USA in 1929 was that the bond market collapsed and that took the stock market down with it.
The MARCH 14th,15th this year is a very important date for a couple reasons.
First it is the next fed meeting and the one where rates are supposed to go up. It is also a key cycle date from a man named Armstrong. So both from a rate inflection point date (fed meeting) and a cycle point, it is a forward looking event and we have to wonder if it could be a magnet date to go down into.
Obviously it will not be a date for the market to go down into if we see the market break north above the down trend line.
Note also the position of RSI and MACD.
RSI is near 50 zone. In 1929 the market got STOPPED at the 50 zone before the 45% plunge.
We are at 50 now, so it would seem that level should hold the market if it is to remain bearish.
The MACD in the current DJIA is about to cross upside bullish. That same situation occurred in 1929 but AT PRECISELY OF WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF THE FINAL PEAKING IN PRICE BEFORE A 45% CRASH.
So my point is we could right now be very close to a peaking point in the DJIA. INTRADAY of course you can see big up and down. But it is the CLOSING Price that matters the most over the next 5 days.
Will this scenario fail like most of the crash scenarios do? or will it be different this time ???
One final note... the drums of war seem to be beating louder.... that is a potential black swan that could rapidly change market sentiment, possibly severely.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?Hello All,
Here is a new look at the current price action in the Bitcoin price. If you have been following our analysis these drops in the Crypto Market should come as no surprise rather have been very profitable short opportunities. Never become emotionally attached to crypto, stock, or any tradable pair. Never have a bias just focus on the technicals.
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1. Right now it looks as we are going to bounce back towards about ~40K. This would push us to the resistance zone we have been building since the 15th of November 2021. We are currently in a downtrend and the bears are still in control. A fall from that resistance level would push us towards our strong 30K support zone.
2. If we do break the resistance zone either this time or next we can expect a big push to the upside following the technicals of a falling wedge pattern. Wait for a strong candle close above this resistance zone before entertaining a long position.
Trade this pattern accordingly, all-important zones are present on the chart.
Nasdaq DO or DIE
Nasdaq must break out of this slightly bearish channel . If it does we can talk "buy" again. If it breaks down
it's very very likely game over for some time, as people had gotten so complacent that any body could win
at this game. The sad truth is that very few win at this "game." Going forward here are some possibilities on how
this plays out in the near future. My instinct is that it breaks down and it's lights out for the general markets and
a hard learned lesson on why "stocks" are not your FRIEND unless you learn the how-to's.
BTC could be making new HH ASAP!For now two ways I see bitcoin playing out, trend line we are about to face have been acting as strong resistance, once we break I believe we could start seeing new HH. Be cautious for the false breakout. If BTC go lower, I’ll be adding more to my bags around 30k NFA.
SPX the same pattern = same result ?Honestly, things in the world now doesn't look very bright.
And to be honest economy is more unstable than in 2020 crash.
The FED will raise interest rates in March which can cause next crash.
It almost looks like the COVID crash, but it's longer
The crash will be the best thing that can happen now, because if it goes just up with such a high inflation, then the next crash can be more severe.
NYSE Stopped on a ton of Support Here's an overview of the NYSE exchange and some key reasons why we have a hard stop here. If we continue this downward pressure we will break all of these lines of support. All of the lines are on the chart are drawn, form support! There are alot more but these are the ones the mean the most. Smaller time frames under the daily indicate a Double bottom, but the weekly and daily are key and we are sitting on good support. Surely this bull run from COVID is coming to an end? The monthly indicates a very indecisive market right now, which is barely Bullish. If we expect anything like February 2021, we are in for a rocky month or so ahead.
Mid Feb. Bitcoin to hit $30,000. Buy or sell?Just a quick video breakdown. As you can see a trend building here over the last few weeks, it's likely that trend will continue to true support. That level is very clear at $30k and looks to be pretty heavy support. It is possible we enter the winter and head into that $20k rang or possible a collapse tot he $12k range over a period of many months of volatility. Of course, at that point it's time to back up the truck. A lot of political items going on right now as well so keep these in mind as they may trigger a sell off that goes beyond technicals. I have buy orders set on other crypto in their support zones to prepare for overnight sell offs as an opportunity to catch a clearance sell.
BTC - The only trading signals you need.RSI, MACD, EMA, Bollinger Bands, SMA, Volume.
Are these useful or actually just noise? Which one can help predict, or are they good at being lagging indicators?
Honestly, the simplest method of getting in and out of a trend trade (a trade that lasts a few months) is simply plotting a line that shows the uptend support and the downtrend resistance.
Look at BTC in this example, simply following the trend lines and exiting when they are broken from an uptrend and entering again when they cross through downtrend resistance, you save yourself stress and capture most of the major move.
The biggest limitation in the market is yourself, your greed and your patience. Follow the simplest rules and stick to them. Be happy with smaller gains that are consistent and stop trying to buy perfectly at the bottom and perfectly at the top.
TL:DR - Trade with the trend, just plot simple upward support and downward resistance lines. Buy and sell when these are broken.