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Crash!!!!!

One of the Most Important Charts You Will Ever SeeThe bond market often has an inverse relationship with the stock market since it is considered a 'risk off' asset. Bonds generally yield more interest for longer maturities. For example, a bond investor in a healthy economy would expect a greater yield for a 10 year treasury compared to a shorter duration. However, the yield curve can 'invert' (shorter term bond actually pays greater interest) when bond traders believe a recession is imminent. Since the Fed's reaction to a recession is to drop short-term rates to 0% and recessions cause 'risk on' assets like stocks to drop, the smart money will rotate from higher risk stocks (like tech, since it's future cash flows are highly sensitive to the cost of capital) and hide out in bonds to weather the storm and minimize downside risk. Yield inversion info: www.investopedia.com This chart shows the interest spread between 10 and 2 year treasuries in blue. Shaded vertical boxes show where the yield curve inverted in the past. The S&P is in red (at least I think it's red. I am color blind). Note how the shaded boxes start just prior to the dot.com peak, the GFC peak, and even the Covid recession. Currently the interest spread is heading back towards zero as the Fed is set to hike short-term rates to combat inflation, likely beginning in March. At it's current drop rate, the spread will invert in ~Q4 of this year, which means a recession is on the table for the first half of 2023. Keep checking back for updates as I will be watching this one VERY closely.
TVC:US10YShort
by HypnoticStrix
2
Is the S&P 500 About to Crash? It's getting close....The holy grail of trading is being able to confirm trend reversals. Using a proprietary indicator, I'm able to confirm, with a backtested over 90% accuracy a major trend direction change in the S&P 500. The chart On the left you have 3M candles. This is best for confirm a full blown bearish trend reversal as occurred in 2000 and 2008. In brief, if on April 1st, price is BELOW the green line, there's a 90% chance price will not only continue down but that the longest bull trend in market history has come to an end. So watch that line and that date. On the right you can see the 1M candle in the top right. It's already breached it's support. If it closes on February 1st below the green line, price is likely to keep going down. On the bottom right you can see the 1W candle. It's already clearly in a trend reversal. 1W is not long enough to predict overall market trends. Time will tell, but my indicator, I call the Tenoris Indicator, latin for 'trend' is highly accurate back tested going back over 40 years. If you're interested in it LMK.
SP:SPXShort
by TrendGuruX
XRP III Will the dips take longer and reach further? 🆘🆘🆘🤬Hello everyone, Technical analysis: - More than a year of flag formation has been lost. Breaking the bottom line of the flag and successful testing, which may result in large drops. - If the last hole is broken and confirmed by the 4h candle, we will fall even lower. Even around $ 0.3. - It is possible to return to the flag, then we should expect a LONG towards the top line of the formation. (Less likely) Fundamental analysis: - 20.01.2022 in the United States, a government meeting is to be held on the environmental consequences of cryptocurrencies. It's all about the energy that crypto mining uses. At the moment, miners use as much electricity as power all of Argentina: D - I believe there will be negative information. This will contribute to further declines. The meeting will be broadcast on Youtube. -XRP cannot be mined but will fly down after Bitcoin. Comment and like, Greetings
Short
by SayMoney
1
Bitcoin will plummet to 23k-28kBitcoin has struggled in recent days. The rest of the market may be delinking itself from Bitcoin, but in an early economy, I think we're seeing a huge 'warning zone' much like we did last year before the crypto crash. Fib Circles and a series of supports based on common price floors and Bollinger Band/EMA critical points. Stoch K and EMA are both going southward too. After plummeting to 26k (still over 250% gain in one year) I believe Bitcoin will stabilize in a 34k-40k range for a while. A different analysis put ETH at it's mythical $9k high in Nov '22, so read into that as you will. Maybe Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin marketcap this year ... ? *shrug* Classic fib circle playing out in double drop outer ring.
Short
by BigSwifty
9
FTM Short - Added more to position, but not other shorts. In my previous few ideas I entered short into FTM, today I have added further to this position. I am also short AVAX and LUNA. But why haven't I added more short to those 2 but I have to FTM? FTM still looks like it has 10-15% drop to horizontal support and even further to major trendline support. AVAX is at a confluence of levels and LUNA is quite close to major support. So overall I'm adding to the position that has the best risk to reward for a) taking profit and b)not getting stopped out. The aim of the game with shorts is to be safe, critical of entry and exits, and to not will the market to do something. Take the profit that is given and be patient. If you exit short, that should indicate your long entry.
BITFINEX:FTMUSDShort
by cheliosTD
LUNA short entry in falling marketLUNA - A project that I actually quite like is showing a good entry for a short position here. It failed to break out of it's downtrend today after the rally caused by a rising BTC. If this follows the same as others coins like FTM/AVAX/BTC/ETH, it will continue it's downtrend until it reaches trending upward support. Entered short here at 75. Going short on crypto is dangerous. Do not play with too much leverage and always have a stop in place so your account isn't wiped. I play both long and short. But there is no point shouting at the market for going down, when you could be making money on the way down, then have a bigger account for the way up. Good traders go long and short.
LShort
by cheliosTD
Predicting and Confirming Real Market Crashes on the S&P 500The holy grail of stock investing , IMO, is predicting and or even confirming a market crash, a trend change from bullish to bearish that's going to last for an extended period of time. I'm defining a 'market crash' as a trend change from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish. How do we know when a pullback or correction is just that and when it's the start of a long term bear market? I'm old enough to vividly remember and having been impacted financially by the crashes and bear markets of approximately 2000 and 2008. So I became obsessed with creating an indicator that could weed out pullbacks, fake outs, and minor corrections and confirm a real bear market. Here's my best effort after years of work. The arrows on the chart would have appeared when the candle they are above closed. I'm using a 91D candle for starters. This gives the best results. And several other proprietary methods under the hood of my indicator. However, you can see that it over the last 40 years, only indicated two bear markets....and both correctly. For the S&P 500 to confirm another bear market, major trend reversal, it will need to drop under the red dotted line for an extended period of time...then you'll know it's likely headed further down. Curious what other think and how you determine if the stock market is at the beginning of a real trend change.
SP:SPX
by TrendGuruX
5
Bitcoin in the NO MAN's LANDHistorical data shows that bitcoin is currently at a critical zone. The green line is the level which has previously acted as a "resistance becoming support". So far, the price has bounced off of that level, although the last candle does not signal a reversal of current downfall. Therefore, the conservative approach is to assume that the price will follow the current downtrend, unless corroborating evidence of support at this level appears later. Weekends are bad for crypto, and I hate Sundays ;) I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BDDC
Repeat of the 2000 dot-com bubble? Some dubious speculation...I took the bar pattern of the 2000 bubble pop and subsequent bear market and copied it to the present day to see what it would look like. I did adjust the shape a little to make the H&S look more symmetrical, just like the H&S in 2000. You can see it fits rather well. - The RSI is topping and expected to trend lower. - The bottom of the breakdown lines up with the market top in 2000 and 2008. - It bottoms at the lower support of the megaphone pattern. - Finally, the length of the move is proportional to the one in 2000. Despite how 'perfectly' it all fits, extrapolating 2 years out to find the bottom is dubious speculation. It goes without saying, but it most likely will not go down like this. Disclaimer: I am not bearish nor am I bullish. I don't hold a macro outlook. I simply react to what the market tells me. This was just a fun hypothetical.
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz