Crash!!!!!
"Irrational Exuberance"I was extremely wrong about the US markets since S&P was trading around 3200 I thought the market is trading at the TOP, any how I believe the market is trading at the top now and if there is room to still go up I doubt it would pass the line around 4900
what would follow is a CRASH the longest and fastest crash in human history I could be wrong again
SPX Printing A MASSIVE Bubble. Be Very Careful !!On the left side of the chart i've compared a chart from 1891 - 1935 to show the similarities between chart back then and todays after the dot-com bubble. The orange chart is not stretch out or anything. It is there to show that when the bubble popped, price did eventually fall below the bottom of the previous sideways range (orange box). In '29 chart also reached above all the fib. extension levels, just like it is doing right now as it is preparing for the final blow of top which is in my opinion only a few % away.
I did the same price comparisment with DJI index in one of my ideas, where the price behaves almost the same as it was from 1915-1929. Really scary stuff if you think about it. Wonder how will that effect the crypto market as it has never experienced a REAL stock market crash.
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
SP:SPX
BCH Resets its Would-Be 5th Wave Rally with PullbackWith our crypto crash last week, Bitcoin Cash invalidated its PURPLE primary pattern with the break of 386.59. This means that our larger Wave 4 correction that started after the May 2021 peak had been continuing all this time with that purple subwave (i) actually being a fake-out rally!
Therefore, the GREEN pattern is now primary, and it has the entire 4th wave pullback identified as a double-zigzag (since the would-be C-wave is actually an ABC zigzag down, now labeled as 'Y'). It is not clear if the pullback is done yet, and we may see a slightly lower low to the 0.618 extension of our W-wave which would fall at about 324.07 on the chart. (FYI, there should have been a RED alt pattern on this chart as I had on all my other crypto charts... Point is now moot as GREEN has supplanted this.)
So what's the good news despite all this doom and gloom?! BCH has a clean slate on where it can go next. Without 1-2 setup present, we can't make a clear projection yet on where the top should go, so I've added the big green box as our rough target zone. This falls within the 0.382-0.618 extension range of our larger 3-4, a common Fibonacci proportion; this is 1139-2370.
However, as I'm interpreting the larger pattern starting from the Dec 2018 bottom as a diagonal, I'd expect the 5th wave to extend to somewhere between the 1.382 and 1.618 extensions of the larger 1-2. While the lower end of this range falls within the green box, the upper end falls at 3181! So yes, there's a puncher's chance we make it that high!
I use Elliott Wave analysis to project price levels for different assets and asset classes. EW is a form a technical analysis that is absolutely NOT based on fundamentals. Please be aware that this is not intended to act as financial advice. I am not a trained or certified financial professional. You may invest based on a strategy tailored to your own skill and risk-tolerance levels.
#bitcoincash #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #bitcoinmining #bitcoinnews
Evergrande's SelfdestructionEvergrande shares, symbol 3333, have been getting demolished as of late. On December 6th it broke past its all time lows of 1.88 HKD. This puts Evergrand's stock over 94% down from it's ATH of 32.39 HKD now at 1.77 HKD. The stock is no longer in free fall however, that may not last for long. On December 9th the real estate developer had defaulted on its debt for the first time. Despite the striking resemblance to the fall of Lehman Brothers, Evergrande has made strong efforts to distance itself from being perceived as fundamentally the same thing. Narratives around possible contagion to global markets have fuelled uncertainties and a possible run to risk off. Crypto could suffer due to offshore creditors to Evergrande such as Black Rock who also have exposure to BTC and ETH possibly selling to rebalance or cover losses. Please check out my previous analysis on BTC/USD where I predicted a retrace to $50k with support @ $47k. If you like my content, feedback, likes and coins are encouraged and appreciated! Thank you.
Dollar power - will it last?The Dollar has surprised loads of people, as well as it hasn't other people. 😊
The trend is still for the north. Why?
We don’t need to know why.
On the chart there is trend strength - the RSI is well over 50, ATR is for the north, and squeeze momentum is north.
The consolidation pattern on the Aroon is still bullish.
Nobody knows what will happen next. At each consolidation some thought it meant that a crash was coming.
Do I predict anything? I do not. The red dashed line is critical.
What's your bet?
Is that a recession on the horizon? (TL;DR @ end)In one of the previous ideas I published, I addressed the rising concerns many people have regarding exchange traded funds, or at least the ones that use various indexes as a benchmark for weighting and distribution. Obviously, linked to this would be the concern of a crash in the whole of the U.S stock market and possibly all western markets (I can't perform an educated judgement on eastern markets as I have limited knowledge in that regard).
Unfortunately for the United States economy, the situation has been looking rather dire. There are countless reasons to why I say this, two of which I must mention, are:
1. The inflation rates in the US that have increased to 6.2% according to the consumer price index.
2. The democrats' (likely successful) attempt at raising the debt ceiling for the government to avoid default.
Not only are these 2 signs very concerning as far as economic stability but, like every recession prior to date; had stocks trading at the highest levels ever recorded. Which is exactly what is happening right now as you read this.
Luckily for bond holders and unfortunately for borrowers, in response to these increased inflation rates, interest rates are also destined to rise. The effect of this was seen today in the US 10 year state bonds ( TVC:US10 ) as they increased by just under half a percentage point in price in 24 hours. This may be a good time to transfer some of your stock holdings into state bonds for the sake of safety, before the potential recession.
The other concern is how ludicrously high the market is trading. If you take a look at any of the major public corporations, you will notice that they are trading at earnings multipliers that are astronomical (that's actually an understatement) but despite this fact, many people are still buying stocks at an alarming rate. If you take a sneak peak at the news, you will see a huge portion of traders all 'screaming' "buy more, buy more", regardless of the fact that 90% of stocks and crypto are trading at ludicrous prices and are bound to take some sort of fall at some point in the near future. I am writing this just to put the thought in the back of some of my fellow investors' minds, hopefully might make them re-evaluate their portfolio distribution and possibly have a bit of cash at hand to buy some of the bargains that will come out of the next recession.
As usual, other opinions, facts and news are always welcome, stay safe and comment away!
TL;DR: There are a couple of signs of a potential recession on the horizon, between overpriced stocks and crypto and people's ludicrous spending in the market. When this recession may occur is not for my prediction but given increased interest rates, I would suggest converting some of your liquid assets to state bonds and/or cash so you can take advantage of the coming bargains.
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE FIB CYCLESAs you can see the LAWS of Nature Have been repeating very clear cycles . I see no GOVERNMENT OR BANKING SYSTEM too to be able to stop these cycles no more than a WAVE IN THE OCEAN from hitting the shore . it is just a law of nature that is all things be it TIME or markets. . .LIVE A SIMPLE LIFE IS MY WAY OF LIFE as I am grateful for my being a live . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !!!!
Total Market CapI don't like it. The whole structure is weak and looks like a head and shoulders.. I predict a slow year next year which may bring crypto markets sideways down while other less risk assets catch the spotlight. This is only a prediction and not a guarantee; But seeing our extension of the 200 on a weekly shows me something has to give here soon.. Good luck folks