Crash
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked by Protocols"Exchange is not your wallet".
"Not your keys, not your coins"
Despite the strong turmoil due to the FTX crash, DeFi dApps (Decentralized Finance applications that run on blockchains) remain intact, at least for the most part.
And given this bad context of the crypto market, it is worth noting that Dexes (decentralized exchanges) and Landing Protocols have proven to be much more resilient and secure than centralized exchanges, since the former have a more open administration and a source code that can be accessed and audited.
On the other hand, centralized exchanges are a black box, and at this delicate moment, there are doubts if they really have enough balance to honor all withdrawals.
DefiLlama TVL (Total Value Locked)
The graph presented here shows the monetary values locked in the main dApps, also called protocols.
What the graph indicates is that the DeFi ecosystem remains intact, and so far the application that has suffered the most withdrawals and losses has been Mango Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain.
Due to the Alameda/FTX contamination, some Solana dApps may suffer more.
The worst case scenario in case of eviction
According to DefiLlama, the total amount locked in DeFi is $76.13b.
Doing a very quick baker's account with approximate values:
+ Total TVL: $76,000,000,000.00
- FTX Leak: $10,000,000,000.00
- Investments by Alameda/FTX in Solana and some dApps: $6,031,139,675.00
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= $59,968,860,325,000 (-21%)
So, if the market drops more, we could have a drop of another 21%, distributed among these protocols.
But, again, this is just a quick calculation and could be wrong, and it is not investment advice.
Final word
This will be a time of consolidation, in which ecosystems with solid governance will prove their worth and emerge from this crisis even stronger.
DXY setting up for huge bounce to coincide with crypto crash pt2Interesting chart here on the DXY daily we can see the sharp pull back to strong support line so that’s one more clue that things are about to get uglier in the crypto space.
This past week‘s events have cast the block shadow on the entire industry and likely will put increased pressure on institutions and big investors to further limit exposure.
In the life cycle of investor emotions, were seeing capitulation but I haven’t quite seen the final stage of despondency that ear marks the true bottom. So I think we have further to drop, likely to $14,000, or $12,500 which would be the 100 month moving average.
There is also still the unfilled CME gap between 9750 and 9780 so a $10,000 bitcoin could still be in the cards for this is all over.
FTX and the end of an eraThe fall of FTX will go down in history as something similar to the crash of 2008.
On Friday, 11/11/2022, a court-supervised reorganization was requested, the first step towards filing for bankruptcy.
In this chart, we can see the balance of assets belonging to the hodlers of the FTT token, used on the FTX exchange.
Surreptitiously, on September 26, someone with inside information already knew the boat was going to sink.
And these managed to get a lifeboat before everyone else...
This can be proven by comparing the same type of chart in other cryptocurrencies, where nothing absurdly out of the ordinary is noticed:
BTC
ETH
AAVE
ADA
BUSD (Binance)
COINEX
Curve
dYDX
GUSD (Gemini)
HT (Huobi)
HUSD (Huobi)
KCS (Kucooin)
CRO
Polygon
Magic Internet Money
OKB (OKX)
QuickSwap (Polygon)
USDC
USDT
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Another indicator that demonstrates the problem to come is the Volume of transactions with a value of $100,000 or greater in USD .
On FTX’s FTT token, there was a strangely unusual volume, ahead of other cryptocurrencies:
FTT
BTC
ETH
USDC (note that high volume happened just days later, in the desperation of multiple withdrawals and moves)
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The Amount of asset held by Whales is another indicator that I bring here to compare some exchanges, but not all of them are available.
FTT (FTX)
BUSD (Binance) (this information does not exist for BNB)
Coinex
CRO
dYDX
GUSD (Gemini)
HT (Huobi) (⁉️)
HUSD (Huobi)
KCS (Kucoin)
OKB (OKX)
USDK (OKX)
Uniswap
Better times will come.
Pre-Pandemic Level Untapped!!All markets are targeting the levels they were trading at right before the PANDEMIC CRASH!
Keep in mind these were the natural levels that were unaffected by the massive supply of funds that were injected into the economy. It only makes sense that we reach those levels again for an official reset. BLUE LINE!
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Two scenarios for next bitcoin moveA lot of bad news is being talked about bitcoin those days and this inpact btc hard, if last wave is a drop correction btc will go futher down maybe next to 13500 then 11000( second scenario)
First scenario is if btc move up to 19800 but also there is bad move for bitcon becouse after that btc can crash hard
BTCUSDT: A1000x True reversal pointHello traders!
Welcome back to another episode with analyst Aadil1000x.
The market crashed hard and I already warned you about this. Traders made huge in this crash but it is not a day to be happy as many traders lost a lot. I was not in a hurry to update the chart but an update of the market was high in demand so I cracked the bottom of this dump.
BTC crashed exactly from my 21429 True Reversal point and it will stop at the 10700 true reversal point, it's nearly 34% away from 16200, and by looking at the speed of drop it might not take time to hit it. But if the market needed the strength to touch 10700 then it will find a good place to accumulate and after that BTC will give a tricky move which will end at 10700.
For those who are new here, I must tell you the true reversal point is one of a kind strategy that detects perfect reversals with pinpoint accuracy.
I must be clear to you that 10700 is not the bottom of this mega fall. It's the bottom of this dump. I also know the exact bottom of this mega fall and I will reveal it soon.
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected
Bitcoin Diving Just StartedIt's seems last bearish continuation succeeded, what we can expect now from bitcoin based on last down leg about (-43%) can repeated again for final leg until middle of december!
Targets can be :
TP1 : 17250
TP2 : 14500
TP3 : 12750 or 11700 (flash)
Lets see if history repeated, play it safe don't go crazy always use stoploss!
Have good luck until next post.
Control of congress is very UNCLEARY’all this is huge … during midterm elections the democrats are hoping for no republicans blowout but suddenly it will happen or too close to call.
In congress it’s very unclear and too close to call what it’s going to happen.
But will the republicans blowout will cause an economic crash ? Or how the Feds reserve will react to it because the next interest rate hike decision while the inflation still over 40 year high.
This seems like the crash in USA is coming along with Significant Recession in 2023, the worst is coming
bitcoin flash crash is on the wayBTC has formed massive descending triangle and we are about to see a massive flash crash.
CPI report is also coming on 13 oct, so we need to wait for that report in order to take action. we also need to wait for breakout and retest.
a simple breakout could cause a quick flash crash. i am expecting $10k $btc by the end of this year although anything could happen i will be updating this idea on regular basis whether we are going to break upside or downside.
bearish scenario is most probable at this point.
Binance got bankrupted and bought FTXBig trouble for binance, they had gotten bankrupted it then bought FTX, wait there’s more. Binance the largest crypto trading in a world has a problem of sell off liquidity.. even so remember the big crash from LUNA.. that what happened.
But the takeover is a big red flag for them and cause FTX to collapse as well wiped out over $2billion in value.
For bitcoin it briefly touches the new lows for the year, should expect more collapse and downfall, the bear market isn’t over and the crash already begun.
12K,10K should be a Best Buy opportunity so please don’t miss those buy zone.
why 50% plus 1 day crash in FTT matters for all marketsfinancialized markets all move together in times of liquidity panics. Thats why we must pay attention when we hear of certain market going wild in large percentage moves. FTT token may not matter to everyone, but it matters if it gives us an insight to market mechanics that affect everyone.
Crypto liquidity panics will harm investor trust and sentiment. Losses in any market can also force investors to sell liqduid and perfectly good assets in order to fund other illiquid areas.
Not in anyway advice. But worth watching and observing.
SPY QQQ DIA VT FTTUSD TOTAL HYG AAPL
20K support has been broken|Crash has startedAn update of my last post I had been expecting for 20K support area to break and now it has been broken.
Now the buy going to be very short and then will drop a lot more, not that far to hit back to mid 17K area, then break and go further down.
Bad News for bitcoin.. about a decade ago the Feds had announced that bitcoin $3.36billion has been stolen from illegal Silk Road marketplace, it from the Dark web if anyone is familiar with it.
Bearish target: Mid 17K
Break the support then drop to 15K zone
3rd target 13K; relief rally buy and sell around 16K
Final target 10K even lower is possible
BTCUSDT Bullish Scenario BTC 3HR,
As you can see over here, it's going for the first scenario that we have shared with you over here, I blelieve that it's going to grab some liquidity on this trend, 0.618 Fib and horizontal support level before seeing another continuation to the upside, our R:R will be 1:1. We could also notice that we are building a hidden bearish divergence.
The Depression of 2022-2024In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10.
My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply.
100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough.
Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
AAPL trapping late longs left and right with double wrap-aroundsIf AAPL continues downward after another double whammy support wrap-around it could well trigger a collapse to 10k for Nasdaq 100 especially if TSLA goes with it; many are likely to fall for this thinking that up is the direction which makes sense but charts which spent a few years going up for "no reason" can also spend a few years going down for "no reason"
S&P to hit new low mid-January 2023My first idea, comment if you think I'm onto something or if you think I'm dead wrong.
Since the S&P500 high in January 2022, RSI-50 began fluctuating between low 40s and high 50s. Each RSI-50 interval takes 70-80 bars. Each low and high can be associated with a strong rally or strong drop in the S&P price in the days following the RSI peak/valley. So far, this pattern has occurred twice. Should this pattern continue, I expect the S&P500 rally to continue and reach a local maximum around 4090 in late November or early December. Also at that time, the RSI-50 will be in the low-to-mid 50s, also a local maximum. Then, I expect a drop over the next 45 days where the S&P will lose 17% and hit 3390. RSI-50 will drop to 40 but may continue to decline, along with the S&P price. I expect the S&P to hit 3390 on Friday, January 13, 2023....Friday the 13th, mind you.
If I decide to move forward with taking a position, I will enter when RSI-50 hits 52 and put a trailing stop loss in once RSI-50 hits 43. That way if a rally follows, I can keep most of the gains, but can also keep riding should the price continue to decline. I am looking at buying SH, SDS, and/or SPXU when the time comes.
This idea is not investment advice. Good luck.