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Crashcycle

Bye Bye EURO !! ( CRASH )The levels on the euro's chart against the dollar are highly worrisome. If the European Union does not quickly raise interest rates more aggressively, we could see the Euro fall to levels of €1=$1 or even lower at €0.8=$1. We note that it has been in a bearish channel since about 2005, which it has been respecting in a demanding manner. At the same time we have no nearby supports that can hold the price, so the HIGHEST probability is to fall. The market structure predicts an abrupt and rapid fall towards these levels, probably without giving us any retracement, as happened in the past. We have already broken the bullish guideline within the bearish channel and this is not good news, since there is no " REAL SUPPORT " by market structure ( I REPEAT ) The area where it is right now, is NOT a SUPPORT !!! . Europeans can be affected by this, losing 20% of their wealth added to inflation added to the uncontrolled growth of taxes. :( . Best of luck to All, hope it helps to get a clean picture of the future of the EURO.
Short
by javieralcazarono
1
Market looks like 2008 + InflationYou been worried about inflation? How about inflation and recession at the same time? Me too, but I’ve been working on methods to mitigate losses and ways to succeed in the coming years. Look at any commodity and you’ll see the similarities to 2008. I don’t want to be alarmist, but, it’s the truth. I got out of my positions in November and chose to not reenter. Stocks and commodities are hardly stores of value. It’s a shame but unless you’re prepared to short this market, get out, use your money to start a business in an emerging market, something that doesn’t rely heavily on commodity inputs. Consider that people won’t have money going forward, they will, but it will be chewed up by inflationary elements of society. Buy tools, something that people can rely on your for. If you can’t use them yourself, rent them out. Find ways to supplement your income, and reduce your cost of living. Maybe reducing costs isn’t that crazy, just go back to the old staples of life.Maybe by building a vegetable garden, buying your own weights and exercising outside of a gym, reducing to one subscription for streaming or find natural sources of entertainment, etc. - live more, but spend less. This is the way to success in this next market cycle, because to be honest, owning land or bitcoin or other stores of value will help, but will still be be subject to taxes and the fluctuations of strength in the USD, CAD , etc. This still leaves you exposed to uncomfortable risks. Hedge your investments in those stores of value with your own personal budget and expenses. It sucks, but you’ll be happy in 10 years when you chose to focus on your outputs and inputs in a more personal way. This is just an idea but it’s something we should all be considering. I mean damn, wheat, oil, housing, it’s all at 2008 levels. Why not be proactive and get prepared for this next market cycle.
TVC:USOIL
by daanksy
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
sound money, the play on precious metals is scary thought for metals to do well nations must face difficult times ahead, but with us president having no problem devaluing US dollar to make us markets competitive to export goods, means one think a weaker dollar as other countries do the same thing we are certainly heading towards a downward sprial, and us dollar being a bad place to keep a store of value for your hard heard dollars. just look at the yield curve, they had to manipulate the treasury bills but buying long term t bill and still could stop it from crashing. equities are too overvalued and the coronavirus was honestly the excuse to sell everything. if you really looked that the market it has had severe problems and rapid price appreciation is going to make it worse. i have been conducting research at McDonalds and Wawa and stores alike where they have been increasing the price of goods, and taking items off the dollar menu. the only reason I haven't built a bomb shelter & move to Yukon is cause Arizona 99 cent cans are still 99 cent and Wendys 4 for 4 is still around that my indicator when things are going down cause those are promises lol. enough jokes if you arent heading agaisnt a huge dollar depreciation your in for a rude awaking. just check out dxy if anyone wants i could make a chart. so just know you 401k is effectively gone and the government knows, they made too many promises and now its gonna hurt the people retiring shame. as I had spent some time rubbing elbows with huge investment banking institutions and small ones. they are just peddling financial products to customers and they few u as a number and they are very good that making you feel special. anyway, I do still believe gold and silver will come down a bit. but upside potential very nice to look at if you own some. and everyone should hold a some. quick bullets fundamental + has been in a bear market for 10 years + crackdown on price suppression on metals + yeild curve on t-bills just not worth it loose money really. + people who weren't in the market before now join in aka your friends bout 2 shares of xyz company and have no idea if it makes sense other then that they love "bla bla bla" + every county wants a weak currency + feds pooping there pants they did a preemptive .25 rate cut last week and well we could get .75 cut now. so when we go to zero cause powell has no spine + world tensions are getting hot turky and russia for example, and Russias FU to opec classic saw it coming lol. and I could go on and on. my main gold is just preserving my wealth. which is by i sold all my equitys a while ago and am focused on commodities as they are at a near all-time low and you and i can buy things at a record low price that hasn't been seen for 40 years. oh also there is gonna be a supply crunch as Wuhan is one of the biggest manufacturing cities in the world and well we all know there is effectively no activity also farming looks like is gonna have a really hard time this spring with there output. have a great day -MR MR
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by infusion
CROSSING THE RUBICON: MARKET PEAK IS VERY NEARSPX*US10Y provides early warning that market peak is near. We reached that upper red line last week. Based on past track record, a peak is near (3 months to 14 months away). However, based on the speed with which the US10Y rate has climbed, I suspect the peak may be nearer than previous. This does not mean markets will start going down. It may still go up or melt-up before peaking. Good luck, be nimble and protect your wealth.
SP:SPX
by fightingdragons
2
BITCOIN 24-27K CRASH ?There is constant bearish pressure on Bitcoin, any bullish candle is weak and dips are still very severe. EMA200 supports the price at 25K. Bitcoin dominance is 42% and imo it needs atleast 50% to continue it's journey to 100K so crash is very likely with the things that are happening in economy / world right now. However BTC price is now between ema50 & ema200 and by the past price action it's the best time to accumulate more BTC ! Bitcoin cycles are not what they used to be before 2018. Now they last longer and are long lasting accumulations before the next parabolic move is on the way.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by bizmatej
The Monkey and the Wise OwlOne night, the monkey was monkeying as usual, jumping up and down, left and right, holding his fingers straight out of his head as if they were horns of a fearless bull. The Owl watched carefully, one eye skeptical, the other sarcastic. "What do you think you are doing?" said the wise owl. "I am hedging with BTC against a market crash," said the monkey, who didn't need an adjective to have his character described. "You are doing what?!" said the wise owl with half a chuckle, while still holding to its skeptical/sarcastic look. "Look deeper into my eyes and you shall see." "Shall see what?" asked the monkey monkey eagerly. "You shall see experience, you fool," replied the wise owl, "If you hedge volatility with more risk, especially if the correlation coefficient is almost 1 more than 80% of the time, and, even more, when the coefficient was low, it was because BTC was falling while the market didn't, then you must be insane." "The past doesn't necessarily predict the future," echoed the monkey with one of those packaged sentences that he knows by heart. "I will give you that," said the wise owl. "But then, why do you expect BTC to go up?" "Because it always did in the past," replied the monkey confidently. "And even the market rises eventually after any crash," it felt the urge to add. "Indeed," replied the wise owl so calmly, that kind of calmness which signals the lack of interest in further conversation. They waved goodbye. Back to its precious solitude, the owl switched to is smartphone, navigated to the investment app, and opened a massive short position on the monkey's future, while using BTC as a hedge.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MontyMacht
Bitcoin will plummet to 23k-28kBitcoin has struggled in recent days. The rest of the market may be delinking itself from Bitcoin, but in an early economy, I think we're seeing a huge 'warning zone' much like we did last year before the crypto crash. Fib Circles and a series of supports based on common price floors and Bollinger Band/EMA critical points. Stoch K and EMA are both going southward too. After plummeting to 26k (still over 250% gain in one year) I believe Bitcoin will stabilize in a 34k-40k range for a while. A different analysis put ETH at it's mythical $9k high in Nov '22, so read into that as you will. Maybe Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin marketcap this year ... ? *shrug* Classic fib circle playing out in double drop outer ring.
Short
by BigSwifty
9
SPX a fairytale in the making1. The bomb does not fell twice in the same place, people must forget about Covid in their psyche, so a market crash is still out of question IMO. Everybody is waiting for it after all... 2. When ALL GLOBAL liquidity is gone then they pull the rug, hard cash is-becoming trash. 3. When 2 happens then the biggest BUY THE DIP trap in history happens 4. When 3 happens then we have long term pain and CBDCs introduction 5. When 4 completes we have Stocks Buy Back from Central Banks but no one will have any liquidity or courage left. (State-Capitalism) 6. Due to tech advancements we will see massive layoffs and Universal Basic Income will be introduced with the help of CBDCs (total control of money flow), together with VR and global cannabis legalization. 7. Middle class will no longer be a thing nor poverty as we know it today. 8. Study the Greek society and stock market from 1999-2015 and you will be surprised to discover that the world is now where Greece's was back in the millenia. 9. Stock picking will become a thing 10. All the above might be a fairytale in my head Do not follow my or anyone else advice do your own research! Look First / Then Leap
SP:SPXLong
by Philoslother
1
S&P 500 update after the Evergrande crisisHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ China Evergrande Group has missed a second bond coupon payment in as many weeks, renewing concerns over its ability to repay over $300 billion in liabilities. This Showed an instant effect on the market, the S&P 500 by dropping almost 2% today it went from 4377.41 to 4301.01 and because Evergrand seems to be heading into default and the grace period of 30 days has started, This could be the start of a big market crash that is similar to the Lehman brothers crises that caused the 2008 crash. Possible Scenarios for the market : Scenario 1 : The markets seem to be heading in a Bearish way that will cause a further drop in the market and the first stop will be the support level located at 4248.77 and from there the market will have a chance to stabilize but for that to happen the Bulls need to step in and gain control over the market in hope to prevent a further drop. If the Bulls were able to gain control then we will see a bounce of that support level that will lead the price back near the 4347.83 level. Scenario 2 : After the market reaches the first support at 4248.77, The bears most likely will not allow the Bulls to gain any control which will lead to a breakout of that level that will lead into a further drop possible leading into the 4191.93 levels which could be an early warning signs for a crash in the Economic world. Technical indicators show : 1) the market is below the 5 10 20 50 100 MA and EMA indicating a Bearish short/mid trend, and still above the 200 MA and EMA that indicates a Bullish Long-trend. 2) The RSI is at 34.17 showing weakness in the market with a strong chance that the indicator will go into the overbought zone. 3) The ADX is at 30.35 showing that the market is trending, with a negative crossover between DI+ (12.33) and DI- (36.94). Weekly Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 4352.12 1) 4512.31 2) 4248.77 2) 4569.15 3) 4191.93 3) 4672.50 Fundamental point of view : Asian equities followed Wall Street sharply lower and bonds rallied on Friday, as risk sentiment soured amid growing worries that inflation may persist even after global growth has peaked. U.S. stock futures pointed to a 0.60% decline for the S&P 500, following a 1.19% drop in the index overnight that punctuated its worst month since March of last year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that resolving "tension" between high inflation and high unemployment is the Fed's most urgent issue, acknowledging a potential conflict between the U.S. central bank's two goals of stable prices and full employment. China has proved another particular worry for investors: the economy took a hit from regulatory curbs in the tech and property sectors and is now grappling with a power shortage that threatens to push up energy prices globally. According to reuters Concerns over China Evergrande Group have put investors on edge and added to recent worries over economic growth from the Delta variant. This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
SP:SPXShort
by GabiDahduh