Get started

Crashcycle

Be careful, objects in mirror may be closer than they appearHello all, As satoshiLite told once, I'm sorry to spoil the party, but I need to reign in the excitement a bit... I know a lof of you have september or october as the end of the bullrun. I also know that things are "different" because we have now institutional money. The Truth is the most probable scenario is actually History to get repeated (again). And I think it's arriving sooner than we are expecting. My stake? We may reach something between 70K-100K and start the bear party in 2-8 weeks from now. Let's go directly with the confluences: 1) 🔝Monthly RSI: 96 has been a magic number announcing the end of the bull run. We are getting extremely close (92.04). Note: Not the one in this graph, you need to go to the monthly candles. Btw, look that monthly candles. Does it seem like a nice opportunity to buy? 2) ⏳NUPL: We are at 72, the magic number here has been 75. After reaching 75 (we touch it the 21st Feb) only a couple of weeks were enough for last bullruns to come to an end. You can check it here: lookintobitcoin webpage -> relative-unrealized-profit--loss (Sorry, I'm not able to add links) 3) 🎯Pi Cycle top: This has been an extremely effective technique to find out the peak. And guess what? We are about to reach it: lookintobitcoin page -> charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/ 4) ⚡Stock to flow: Check digitalik page -> /btc. "We have still some margin", you can think, "we are still under the stock to flow plot". I have bad news for you, for each end of bullrun, the price is getting close to the stock flow. Following the same tendency we would not even cross it this time. 70-90K are possible definitive ATH of this bullrun. "Ok but look at the color, we are still orange": Yes, that also has a tendency, ath are each time happening before: The ATH are getting further from the halving for each cycle! 5) 🤑Stimulus: People getting their stimulus in the States righ now: The perfect timing to let "silly money" pump btc to 70-90K. Would you resist to all that tasty plancton if you werw a whale? 🐋 6) 😈Scammers / newspapers / TV / famous guys / Youtuve videos: I don't know if you're getting the same feeling.... but for me, this smells exactly like december 2017. - Remember that the end of the bullrun is not an "obvious terrible day" is just a stealthy second most optimistic day of the bullrun... and then it comes the third... the forth... and then you keep expecting to recover your losses month by month until btc drops to 3000usd, when you decide that BTC is dead and sell to smart money :) - Even if I was still bullish, or waiting for October, I would be selling some of my assets. 1% each day could save my ass if I'm wrong while keep a lot of benefits happening ;) - We may have an alt season, there are a ton of interesting and safer projects than the ICOs we got back in 2017. May bitcoin stay around 70-90k for a long time, we would be able to have a happy alt season for one month or more! I'm particularly bullish on Pancake (I can't understand how people is able to still use eth-based exchanges after using pancake 🤔?), KSM, DOT, ADA and some risky (low market cap) projects like Pancakebunny or hydrachain that could potentially get a x20. - Remember to control your fear and your FOMO: Panic selling & buying the euphoria are bad ideas 99% of the time. 📝Don't take this as financial advice, I'm just pointing out some signals about some metrics that I consider relevant. If the cycle gets broken and BTC gets to 1M after you sell it, not my fault 😏, if you feel like you have learned something, you earn some BTCs and you want to buy me a beer, i'm ok with that tho 💃 📝DYOR and try to enjoy this bullrun while it lasts!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Saityro
6
Potential 10% or 20% MARKET CORRECTION sooner than we think...Hi guys this is my first time taking a deeper look into Economies and their correction cycles so please forgive me if there are a few things I'm missing. I have mainly been a fundamental long-term stock investor for the past 6 years. However, over the past 2, I've taken a liking to chart Technical Analysis. So if you have any constructive feedback I'd actually appreciate it. Brad's Confidence Meter: ★★★☆☆ Looking at the chart… You can see that I have a drawn an Elliot Wave. It is clear that waves 1 and 3 were definitely impulsive waves therefore I believe we might be seeing the top of our next impulsive wave 5 in the coming month. Furthermore, one of the main points I would like to make is that typically when a Breadth Indicator is rising and the stock index is rising, it shows there is strong participation in the price rise. This means the price rise is more likely to sustain itself. However, in this case, we can see the breadth indicator and the index going in opposite directions (a divergence), which may be a big warning sign for a major reversal. Beyond the chart... History suggests that a correction is about due. With the average correction being every 1.84 years. Even though markets don’t always adhere to averages we can still look at this range as a blueprint. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio is 37.99. Well and truly above the index’s mean of 16.84. US Inflation rates are at highs that haven't been seen since before the crash in 2008. The Fed will soon have to reign it in and increase its lending rates to decrease inflation. Margin debt is peaking at all-time highs. Historically there has been a spike in margin debt before extended bear runs in this last century. As dark as this prediction may seem it is not all gloomy clouds ahead. I look forward to seeing this play out as corrections bring new opportunities to make greater wealth. Not financial advice. Be safe and good luck! ~ ~ ~ Relevant links for support www.marketwatch.com qz.com www.multpl.com
FRED:SP500
by dekudekudeku
7
CRASH on the S&P500 and the economy / PART 2 ( Update )---------------------------------------------- REMINDER ---------------------------------------------- We did a few months ago an analysis on the S&P500 chart based on some behavior patterns, which would trigger some results, we marked some crash zones, but the fundamentals have changed this past scenario. What is the reason for this change? The big dollar printing by the Federal Reserve and the unwary investors who have been lured by these big gains. This generated a short squeeze that has continued to drive the price higher. The chart has changed, but what has not changed is the price projection. We are still in the Crash Danger Zone, this zone will never disappear until the market has made a deeper correction. Pay attention, because we are facing a complex situation, and here a good management is the only thing that will help us. ---------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------------- On the one hand, we still have a prolonged Divergence, which ALWAYS triggers an extremely strong correction. On the other hand, the fibonacci calculations have been rendered obsolete by the short squeeze generated, but this has triggered a Bubble pattern. The curved red line is the guide to the pattern we are talking about. Normally bubble patterns, when they break the curve strongly and consistently, usually lose 60% of the value of the asset, then a strong rebound to 61% Fibo, and end with a total fall of 70% 80% or 90% of the value. After this... the market is as if it were dead. If the asset has a real and natural value... This zone becomes an accumulation zone. ( Buy ) All this mentioned is the normal behavior of this type of patterns. But as we are talking about a very important and controlled market .... We must watch all the support zones marked on the chart. In normal circumstances or less important graphs... It should penetrate all the support zones no matter what the zones are. But in this market we must be pending in each support zone and go managing our stop loss with caution and without greed. I do not recommend looking at earnings, simply be guided by the drawing and manage well the Traling Stop. I would like to remind anyone who has forgotten... that before a sharp fall in the market... We are warned with viruses, from 2 to 3 viruses, and then always comes the crash. I did not invent this, it is written in the chart. ---------------------------------------------- HOW DO WE MANAGE IT? ---------------------------------------------- For all this, I recommend caution. - If you are in a trade or you are in the market, the most advisable is to have a traling stop below the bubble curve. - For the more risky, we can prepare our progressive shorts as the price continues to rise. - For the more conservative, you can wait for the bubble to burst and on the bounce towards the 61% fibo area, open a bearish trade. Best of luck to all.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pro_Trade_Robots
Comparative Analysis Hints at Imminent Major Volatility IncreasePlease look at the picture below instead of the interactive chart, if the trend lines are not shown in the upper chart. This relates to the major indices, including CURRENCYCOM:US30 , TVC:SPX , and CURRENCYCOM:US100 . Here, I am focusing my analysis on Nasdaq100 (US100) given that it's the most volatile with the clearest price changes. For each of the past 3 major volatility events, the volatility started to increase with the price passing lower to the trend line. Yet, it didn't happen this time. Naturally, falling below a trend support should be a bearish signal, which usually triggers high volatility; however, for last year the market was fast upwards in an unprecedented way due to its reaction to the COVID19 crisis. The bullish run was slowed down by the correction last summer, which didn't trigger high volatility since the compensating trend was still faster than before. This time, it is different. Nasdaq100 has just started falling below the compensating trend and would probably find support in the pre-COVID19 trend. That is already triggering high volatility which would increase due to the fears of a crash and since many stocks are still over valued. I don't expect COVID19 levels, but I expect the value here to rise to the 30s in the very near future.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MontyMacht
2
Strong Correlation with Market Brings Crypto SouthStarting from March last year, that is from the start of the massive bull after COVID-19 lockdowns, strong correlation can be seen between the crypto market and the stock market, not in magnitude, for sure, but definitely in direction. This wasn't the case before and this is the reason of the crypto revival to begin with. Few exceptions have been witnessed, most notably the GME squeeze which brought the stock market down but didn't affect crypto, and the recent BTC saturation, even if the directions can still be seen to be correlated. Another notable thing is that the recovery of the stock market is much faster than the crypto market. For the above reasons and based on what's going on right now (also see the linked ideas), I expect a south direction for all crypto assets till the end of the month, including Ethereum.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by MontyMacht
WHEN CRYPTO WILL CRASH? - CRYPTO MARKET CAP CRAZY ANALYSISHi guys. I'm very proud of this analysis. 1) Based on the first macro Fibonacci extension and the fib circles, it looks likes we are approaching the next crash which will occur in May (-40%-45%?). This is exactly what happened in the previous cycles. The crypto market will go down once it reaches 3.2T$ However good news. This is not the end of the cycle. 2) Based on the second macro Fibonacci extension, the fib cycles, and the fib time zone, it looks like we will top out between the end of Aug and Sept. This is exactly what happened in the previous cycles. The crypto market will go crash once it reaches 17T$. I'm not sure there will be a super cycle.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Homocryptus
3
Ready for a Big Correction? US30 - SPX500 - NDX 15/4/2021We've been seeing a huge rise in the Dow Jones, now it needs a breather so I'm trying to enter a short after a possible stop hunt to the upside, right around 34k. The market is driving through a bunch of potholes with fears of QE ending. Powell mentioned the FED will taper QE before they hike rates, hedge funds with exposure to quadrillions in the derivatives bubble, system risk at an all-time high. GEX at an all-time high too, dark pools getting in on the Short of the Century? What do you think? Will it go parabolic instead?
OANDA:US30USDShort
by PrecisionCharts
Big dip at 58000 euroHere is what I think will play out when the next big correction happens, which still looks like will happen on march 25th. If it gonna play out similar to the previous big correction. We now will have a slow run up to the march 25th if no bigger update or news happen that cause bitcoin to hit the crash line earlier we will still expect 25th be the day we see the big dip. The last few days of lows we could see where most of the support lines are and combining with some of the data of the previous run I think this be a possible scenario. 25th of March we will hit 58000 euro and start the decent down 26th due to contracts ending speed of fall increases 27th hit bottom at 49000 - 48000euro 28th we will get a small recover going up after people buying back after hitting bottom 29th Hit next bottom of 47000-46000 30th start rise because next day many crypto have updates on 31st 31st and 1 april be going up and depending how fast we go up we could see the start of next run up or if not will will go down 2nd April if still going down hit 46000 before going up again, to start the next run up to April 27 and hit 68000 I personally set a limit sell a alarm at 57000 and also a limit sell at 57900, after that I suggest keep eye on bookings list and depth to see where most bookings for it to dip down to. Extra tip Never be too greedy when setting your limit for buy or sale, if you set at precisely with large volume of booking there are chance you might only get a partial sell so I alway set the slightly lower to make sure it get sold and set buy limit slightly higher to make sure have a buy also.
by chungdha
1
SPX's P/E Probability game Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %All Major crashes since 1902: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year % Crash P/E@ Beg. P/E@ End Days lasted 2020 35 % 26 19 28 2007 57% 21 120 490 2000 50% 27 29!!! 763 1987 36% 21 13.7 28 1980 28% 9 9 609 1973 49% 18 7 609 1968 37% 18 13 483 1961 29% 22 16 147 1937 57% 16 8 1855 1929 84% 18 9 973 1916 37% 7 !!! 14! 1708 1909 28% 13.65 14.54 1764 1906 37% 13 9 637 1902 29 14 11 364 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extra Info: All reading Above 21 P/E ------------------------------------------- April, 19 - Presents March, 15 - October, 18 crash November, 07 November , 09 crash June , 97 January , 04 bull August, 91 November, 93 bull July 87 July 87 crash March, 61 November 61 crash April 46 July 46 crash May 33 March 34 correction October 21 December 21 bull -------------------------------------- statistic wise, 66.33 we will crash/correct 33.33 bull market (Excluding present time) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tips: ***Only 2 times in history we got reading as high as now. 1/ Current reading is 37 P/E 2/ similar reading A. October , 2008- December 2009 End of a crash B. October 2001 - May 2002 last 1/3 of a crash ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- summary: Probability game is : Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2
Bitcoin 68 Day Fib Projection of Possibilities!! - 4 Day ChartBitcoin 68 Day Outlook - Based on the possibility of what analysts and economists are saying may be the greatest market crash and depression of our lifetime, come March or April - I had this chart drawn and the arrows of potential direction drawn before Bitcoin broke out above the Rising Wedge - all of the other Trend Lines and Notations speak for themselves Happy Trading and be safe out there!! Remember, keep your friends close, and your stop loss closer - CryptDude
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptDude
2
TSLA Major Correction? Share your thoughts!Today I decided to zoom out and look at the big picture. I was looking at the monthly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA . I noticed that the current month is a green 8 on the TD sell setup, which means that next month is going to be the reversal signal. I imagine the candle of February to be red or a bearish pin bar (shooting star). Before I dive into the analysis, I want to make clear that I am long TSLA. Fundamentals have not changed. Tesla is going to be the biggest disruptor of the decade. What this analysis suggests is merely a correction. The scale of the correction might be too big. I measured it to be 38% at the smallest price range of the movement, and 49% at most. It is. no doubt. steep compared to the most recent correction of 34% in Sep 2020 which I marked in the chart above. Either way, TSLA is no stranger to these swings, so let's give it a deeper look. I previously called a target for TSLA at $1050 which lies above the border of the broadening wedge. This target has not yet been achieved, so we're still in that long position. It's actually playing out as drawn (see related idea ). From there, I see a breakout and going to new highs towards $2000 during 2021 as this image illustrates. But seriously, how is it fun sailing up to $2000 without some bumpiness? Right? From where we are right now, a rise to $2000 makes a little more than 2X in terms of gain. But take it down a notch and correct to about $550 and then jack it up all the way to $2200; and you get the headline "Tesla climbs 4X in 3 months as more wall street shorts get liquidated!". Michael Burry will have exited his short of course. Oh and what would cause such a crash is perhaps another Tesla crashing into a police patrol while on full-self driving. Now that we imagined it, let's see it on the chart. I drew two downward paths. Both are one-month long. The first starts after the $1050 target is reached. This will be the ultimate bull trap. Traders who sell at the top of the broadening wedge and would re-enter once price has broken above it are the ones that will eat the bull trap. The second path I drew starts after some consolidation along the next descending resistance line. Notice these parallel dotted descending lines. I estimated the next one using Fibonacci. So the idea of the second dotted path is that price gets squeezed between the descending trend line and the ascending top of the broadening wedge. At that point, I know that I will be in so much doubt whether price will plunge downwards from that squeeze or explore upwards. We'll just have to keep collecting clues to favor one bet over the other. The target of both paths is the bottom of the broadening wedge. In my estimation, if this correction happens, this will be the bottommost point for TSLA onwards. For the stop loss, you will have to keep watching this idea as I update it, because I can't decide a stop loss yet; except I would loosely say it's the descending trend line that price action will decide. We have to wait and see a bearish reversal signal such as a shooting star candle or a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. In conclusion, I have to make clear a few points: I would never recommend shorting TSLA. TSLA has much much more room to the upside than it has to the downside. TSLA is much much more likely to see $2000 from here than it is to see $400. So shorting is a BAD idea. This is merely a warning with the goal that you make sure you are not too leveraged, that you prepare mentally before a correction happens, that you do not panic if it does happen, and that you prepare to add to your position at the bottom. TSLA is a long term investment for the coming decade. It is not a trade. This is one of those calls that I'm only publishing for fun and learning, and to entice thought and have some of your opinions. So please leave your opinion in the comments.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TechNerdOmar
7