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Crashcycle

S&P500 - Predicting the next crash, PRICE AND TIMEPredicting the next crash using a long trendline from 1932 crash which has touched and acted as support for every other crash thereafter. Here is the data from the previous 2 crashes -784 points loss after the Tech bubble of year 2000 -900 points loss after the mortgage chrisis of 2008 ... Mean average of both is 846 points 3025 - 846 = 2179 is support level for SPX/S&P500 Angle for both crashes 41 degree angle for year 2000 + 61 degrees angle for year 2008 Mean average of both is 51 degrees
SP:SPXShort
by hustler101
BTC EDU post - 100 followers THANK YOU!TL;DR - Go back in history from 1928 to today and research A.i. design / Banking / Market psychology cycles / the 1987 crash / - We are living in a butterfly effect wave caused by your world leaders when gold lost the greenback and it was no longer backed by the green anymore. If you are young in the markets you will want to read this. If you are over the age of 30 you most likely understand a lot of this... This is a story I decided to type up for my followers. Thank you very much for being so support even by liking and following. If you are young it is important for you to really read this.... ---------------------------- The year was 1999 and I was just 10 years old. At this time I didn't care much about the markets or money unless I wanted some candy or a new bike. One thing that did catch my attention was the panic and scare of something that was called the "Y2k Bug" where everyone thought all computers were going to reset to 0 and destroy lots of information data and loss of funds throughout accounts in global tech businesses. Luckily for me, I was a kid fascinated by technology and told my parents to not even worry that the problem was going to be resolved and most likely the news was just wanting to scare everyone. Because I was huge into conspiracy as a kid it actually took into my favor....See...I grew up liking conspiracies, aliens, etc etc...and with only less than 500 million people in the world on the internet pre-2000 I had quite an advantage as a child having access to information at my fingertips through my 56k modem. I did whatever any kid addicted to his favorite toys would do and started to learn for over 10 years about the growth of technology and A.i. Back then the dark web existed with less than 1 million people in it....did you know that?? So here is the point of me telling you this...a portion of the public was scared out of the market before it peaked and this made many people think we had just had a price correction once the market started to dump. Well most were wrong and the market kept dumping just like bitcoin did in 2018...the hype of the internet boom was over and real world use had started to take place..the market was slow...it took 4 years to crash 70% and 16 years to bloom golden apple trees for people who DIDNT GIVE UP AND FOLLOWED WHERE THE INTERNET WAS TAKING US INTO THE FUTURE!!!!! I am here to tell you we have just started playing with this technology on a larger scale.....and we are going through a very similar cycle but there are new pieces at play. Those pieces are defined into 3 simple words... Artificial. Intelligent. Design. Do you know that 50% of bitcoin holders today were not in BTC in 2016 or 2017? The majority of people who came into this market have been entering since the mini bubble of 2018. Why do I say mini? Because the Dot com bubble hit over 5-7 Trillion dollars before it truly crashed. Some have claimed as much as 10 Trillion in certain locations of the world. ..What I call bubble in crypto is simply a "test run" of how the people of this world will take to this technology. In 2016 Btc was between 500-800 dollars. If the block chain leaders of today have already got their prosperity and now are recycling price to grow it realistically...we can very well see prices as low as $1,000 because I feel most of the large capital investors who are holding their initial amount they got in with have reset that same amount at around the 1K marker so they break even on the investment that has also paid for itself for a future to grow with. Think about it....Charles Hoskinson (ADA), Vitalik Buterin (ETH), Dan Larimer (EOS), Charlie Lee (LTC), ...ALL OF THEM STARTED NEW PROJECTS TO ADVANCE THE TECHNOLOGY AND MAKE IT BACKWARDS COMPATIBLE WITH BTC!!!! So if all of them own some bitcoin still...are bullish on it...building networks to connect to it...AND developing better protocols AROUND IT LIKE A FKN SOLAR SYSTEM>>!>!>!> WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU???!?! They have to obey the rules of the leaders of the world and our government on what they decide....so they are placing their chess pieces accordingly so even if bitcoin fails.. the grand architectural design of the new systems will be in harmony on a new system that can simply "snip snip" other networks out if need be. Personally...I don't see it going anywhere near 1,000 again but I do not exclude all options...I see it slowing down a lot and stabilizing with realistic price growth based off real world use-case by the banks, governments, corp leaders, etc etc...and for you conspiracy fans...the shadow government which is where I personally think BTC came from ;) Personally I believe price will hit 1900 - 3300 zone again and we will have 3 falling valleys with a fake out descending triangle just like GOLD looked like when the greenback was no longer supporting it...it dipped below then slowly kept going up and up and never stopped climbing for over 20 years..if bitcoin is like the gold of the internet then you better get it now while supply is cheap because a million dollars today isn't much in the large scheme of things. It will become "heavy" in data...it will be "heavy" in the cost to carry it and pricey to exchange it so it can stay controlled by few with very little common folks being able to have "1 whole bitcoin." It will be like how people chase 1 million dollars today...they might very well be trying to chase 1 full bitcoin in the year 2040.... ARE YOU SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING?? These block chain leaders are playing it safe...if bitcoin fails to stay around and becomes history..it will be a piece of history worth holding because it was THIS digital asset that started the global change for the next 80 years...a plan that has been set since the stock market crash of 1987...the year I was born...what a time to bust out the baby guns and enter this chaotic world huh?? It takes 10 years to remold technology but its about to re-define the next 80...and you already see how fast technology grows.... The people who lost everything..... their pensions....their homes...their savings.....these people are the ones who have stood up to make a new design "fair" and so the world leaders have heard them because WE stopped giving a shit about their banks and loans and started using their own system against them. When you make millions of peoples lives hell and 90% of them are mentally poor...eventually they will go into survival mode and do whatever it takes to survive. You can't piss off a world of people and expect nothing will happen from the outcome when you suppress them to try and fix your own mess : / (the market crash couldn't be stopped so they have had to try and come up with a new design since then...) I am about to wrap this up and I apologies this is so long but I felt compelled to share after reviewing some old stuff today..... So think about this.... 22% of student loans fall into default...1/5th.. For many, the payments are proving unmanageable. By 2023, nearly 40 percent of borrowers are expected to default on their student loans. Over the past 20 years we had the economy stabbed by a "recession" and even I felt it at age 17 working 2 jobs.... (look at the market cycle crashes from 1982 to now....Funny patterns will begin to show and tell you the story...how ..and why.....) The kids who grew up and graduated between 2000-2007 is the generation who has had to feel the PAIN of our parents struggle to survive an economic turbulence caused by our very own governments of the world because THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO SO THEY PROTECTED THEMSELVES WITH NEW OVER-LAPPING LAWS, NEW LOANS, AND GREEDY WAYS...I don't blame them...I would have protected my family and self as well......I blame the lack of communication between the people and the movers and shakers..I fault the education system for not having the integrity to make it a point to TEACH the importance of money and how it really effects our world in trade and to survive from birth to death....the education system historically was designed to create industrial manufacturing workers...don't believe me...look it up...you will be mind blown how the system went from "teaching to supply workers to grow the world" to "teaching to make people careers and jobs" I am not saying that the education system was developed to make new world order slaves or some crap...I am saying that over the years ..lots of information has been manipulated and left out to teach as a necessity for living life. Money. Education. The way knowledge moves.... All of it is about to change and how it will effect you will be up to you. The 1987 crash not only scared us...but it scared them as well......they knew something had to change when they couldn't control the market from crashing...this is when the white paper of distributed ledger protocols started to come into shape. Yes that is right...there was a protocol design just like bitcoin prior to the age of bitcoin post-2000.. Google it..you will find it... ------------------------------------- Let me take you back some in time and what I learned as a kid and why I am so focused in the world of artificial intelligent design and why this is important to pay attention to not only as a new investment vehicle but as a whole new cycle is in our markets . It will begin starting now and begin transitioning in 2020. Most of us in our middle/young adult years will see how quickly these next 20 years grow and change and Im sure it will make all of us feel very old since some of us got to play with a nintendo and some in this realm and who could be reading this have had the pleasure of playing pac-man on an Atari.... I want you to really think big here. If you were a world leader planning for 100 years of growth for your family legacy and the families of the world for a stable growing world thats in chaos..what would you do??? You would plant the seeds today for your kids tomorrow and you would begin a rough draft of a new era before you started to write the final draft...... If you are 24 years of age or older and reading this you know damn well we have no pension plan for us. You know damn well there is no PLAN for us to retire...we have to make our own plan. I feel as time goes on the middle class is becoming more "spread" apart in order to truly have multiple ladders of wealth to play from...in a sense creating a human liquidity source of workers no matter what the outcome is in life on one side of the world or the other....so we always have a working class and a leading class. If you make the financial road longer...it will take longer for families to generate wealth without innovation...machines are 20% or more of what physical labor used to do...think about that...use your brain or work for pennies will become the next thing. We will always need engineers but you need to see how the job force changes. Some jobs will fall forever and become history and replaced by robots. Some jobs today already are at that point. It will take hundreds of years to become wealthy enough to be a leader of the world in 100 years time...mark my words...this is the only time in our world in our time at our age (if you are around my age) that will be able to have an opportunity to be on the wealthier side of the fence by simply planting your little cryptocurrency seeds across the new designed web 3.0 NOW for this to make sense you need to be taken back to the year 2000.... Take back to the year 2000 The Nasdaq index peaked early March on the 10th of the year 2000 and nearly double over the prior year. Right at the market’s peak, several of the leading high-tech companies, such as Dell and Cisco placed huge sell orders on their stocks, sparking panic selling among investors. Within a few weeks, the stock market lost 10% of its value. As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that had reached market capitalization in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated. Fastforward to today in 2019.... What has the stock market done since 2001 - 2019? What have our fiat currencies turned into? Toilet paper??? They are all becoming weaker and have been printed as such! A NOTE IS ALL YOU HOLD WHEN YOU HOLD PAPER MONEY. YOUR NOTE IS BECOMING WEAKER IN ITS VALUE EVERY PASSING YEAR UNTIL THEY STOP PRINTING MONEY! What has interest rates done? WHY? The housing market? PFFFTTT Dont get me started.... Im 31 years old and I will be damned if I let some old ballsacks in congress try to design my future without me being apart of it or me breathing down their neck through our weapon..... The internet of things....the internet of value... Data is the new oil... will you begin to mine oil today? Or purchase it for retail price later? My best advice for everyone in this realm is to learn your history...truly understand what block chain technology is and DLT...truly compare the protocols and don't just read to forums and reddit posts. DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE! Your world leaders and these leaders in crypto today are just like the leaders who survived the dot com bubble....... Be patient...be smart...dont chase losses...and invest what makes you HAPPY in life...for that is what truly brings you wealth. As they say..do what you love and the money truly can come abundantly when you realize that money is just a tool....do not let it control your life. Turn it into your bitch and make money work for you. Your opportunity is here...take it with a grain of salt and make yourself valuable in many avenues in life..not just crypto portfolio value...build value through multiple avenues. Keep the faucets dripping and you will always have a supply of money to go to. Supply the demand. Thats it for now. Way too long as it is! If you read this thank you for reading my story...please tell me your thoughts as I wrote this pretty scatter brained and jumped around a bit but I tried to hit some topics that are related to why our financial economy is in rambles right now..I will make a video in the future with a very good explanation of this. Overall you can find plenty of topics on the internet about the things I have said here. DYOR and you will be surprised what you will find if you keep digging deep enough....
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AschraM
NAS100 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. NAS100 has been labeled within a Sub-Millennium degree wave 3 (pink), which has been unfolding ever since the Dot-Com bottom from 2003 bottom, when the tech Recession tapped out. Structure - Bullish Impulse 2003 lows and up until Nov 2007 highs - Grand Super-Cycle I (blue) Nov 2007 highs and down until Nov 2008 Recession lows - Grand Super-Cycle II (blue) Nov 2008 Recession lows and all the way up until Oct 2018 extreme - Grand Super-Cycle III (blue) Oct 2018 extreme and sharp drops until Dec 2018 - Grand Super-Cycle IV (blue) Grand Super-Cycle V (blue) Pattern - Reversal Motive Wave Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence within an Ending Diagonal Current Position Super-Cycle Wave (I) (turquoise) Next expected swing Bearish sequence Super-Cycle Wave (II) (turquoise)Market Crash Forecast Support granted at or around the 7000.00 mark and then a huge rally towards the 9000.00 levels, where Sub-Millennium Wave 3 (pink) is expected to complete. Grand Super-Cycle Waves A-B-C (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession. Structure change Breach of the 7000.00 levels could lead towards a prolonged corrective structure and a Market Crash already starting.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by Lionheart-EWA
1
Bitcoin and collateral damageThis market will not survive in it's current state of mass coupling with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin falls, everything falls. This needs to change. Something seems... WRONG about this. If current analysis holds true, and Bitcoin drops 50%; it will be the litmus test and that should not be. We have at our discretion MANY alt-coins that have far more merit , use cases , and speed than Bitcoin. Cut off the head and let the market grow. We need decoupling. Bitcoin should not be REQUIRED in order to access alt's. Bitcoin is dying a slow, painful death. Do you want crypto as a whole to follow? Following that would be globalized, digital fractional reserve based currency - the equivalent of current wire transfer fee's in a digital form, and digital bail out's. I don't know how to change this, except perhaps as one does when they are unhappy with other services; call, write and pester your exchange into serving you fairly. Fortis fortuna adiuvat.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Cryptocautious
2
BITCOIN: CHANCES DE INMINENTE DERRUMBE, NUEVOS MIN DE CORRECCIONFOREXCOM:BTCUSD LA MAYOR DE LAS CRIPTOMONEDAS SIGUE DESARROLLANDO UN CUADRO DE VULNERABILIDAD DE MEDIANO PLAZO, PRODUCTO DEL CICLO ASCENDENTE DEL DOLAR A NIVEL GLOBAL, POR EL CUAL SE HA DESARROLLADO EL CRASH CICLICO DE MONEDAS EMERGENTES Y MERCADOS BURSATILES. SEGUN EL CONTEO OPTIMO DESDE QUE SE IMPLEMENTARAN LA OPERATORIA DE FUTUROS Y QUE PONDRIA FIN AL CICLO ALCISTA, ESTARIAMOS CON CHANCES DE DESARROLLAR UN NUEVO DERRUMBE HACIA EL NIVEL DE SOPORTE DE 1850 DOLARES. (POSIBLE INTENTO DE FIN DE CORRECCION, PERO DE EXTREMA VULNERABILIDAD) MANTENGO TARGET OPTIMO IDEAL DE 1150 / 980 COMO NIVEL DE FIN CORRECCION LANZADO HACE UN AÑO ATRAS.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by compa1968
months of stability ahead, then slowly back up?So, after seeing BTC lose almost 85% of its value... we might be entering a (longer) period of stability... There are almost no sellers left... nether are there much buyers... Interest in general is low. Was 3200 the bottom then? Based on historic data we should hope so... If not, we can still go further down to around 2000 USD which would mean a 90% reduction in price... This market had its bubble, it came down, we are not yet out of the storm, but I believe we weathered through and are going to see some more light in the future. Have a nice day, Sven
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by svenso
Part 1 - Risk-off August - VIX WeeklyVIX (Volatility Index) seems to be preparing for another spike in volatility. With the start of February 2018, VIX jumped. That spike in volatility could represent the first piece of a series of similar events. This indicator is used by analysts to measure the state of buy-sell investors’ emotions, complacency versus the fear effect. In simple terms, a rise in the VIX would or bring with it a sharp fall in Stocks and/or Indices. A decrease in the VIX represents the periods when market participants are in the state of greed, being complacent and euphorically enjoying the bull market. A rise in VIX indicates a period of uncertainty, risk-off events that impact the markets directly and suddenly. Such spikes bring with them a fear effect, when investors are beginning to feel worried for the market’s destined directions.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Lionheart-EWA
Possible new world crisis ? // SP500Using the Andrews Fork tool, we note that the SP500 is in a very dangerous region, from where it tends to fall to fetch the center line of the fork (red). If this happens, we will also lose the bottom line of the schiff's fork, another bass signal.    And in addition, we reached the 261% Fibonacci level well in Elliot's 5 impulse wave (according to my count), from the projection of the 2000 crash (dot.com bubble) in 2867, and the price dropped, which confirms the vision of the forks of a possible fall due to the corrective waves.    Another important point is the turn of my own indicator, the Scadufax Index, which if the monthly candle close thus, is signaling sale, something that it signaled before the crash of 2000 and 2008.    It projects a drop of at least 20%, +/- the region of 2000, but only if the price loses support of 2500, which would break the Yellow LTA of the Weekly period. This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation.
SShort
by lordwise
1
Bitcoin short term - Crash-ending shakeout format?It could be due to an increase of liquidity in the markets, but this crash, unlike the previous one, has not had any notable shakeouts. On December 22/January 17 and February 5 we saw some old-school candles and after those we have not seen anything else similar. At least not with the sharpness that contained the shakeouts and selloffs in the 2014 crash. We can hardly count 3 hard selloffs from december and all of them at the start of the crash. In the 2014 crash instead we can count at least 5 : December of 2013, February, April and October of 2014 and January of 2015. It is clear that for one reason or another (probably due to liquidity as main factor) the shakeouts and selloffs are becoming less and less frequents in bitcoin . We still have one or two pending scares to arrive before we can finish the crash, which, according to our point of view, would take us around $ 2400. However, a real shakeout like in the final phase of 2014 led bitcoin to fall in 32 hours from $ 270 to $ 171 (-63% in price). If something similar happened, using similar numbers we would see bitcoin in the range of $ 1200-1900 for a short time. However, and seeing the behavior of bitcoin in this crash, we are quite skeptical about this happening. However, we'll be ready if that ends ocurring. Have a good day!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Billmaxsy
4
DJI long term Elliot countHere is one of the likely cases for the DJI long term count, there is certainly a case to be made that we have a 123 wave in on the cycle degree, but you could potentially call it a 12 12 just as easily, and if you think we will truly experience exponential growth into the future that must be considered, in fact I find it just as likely as finishing a 3rd, and expect a correction that is sharp as a 2 would typically be(IE 1929, 1987). Time will tell and we will get clues over the next year but a large correction seems inevitable here and the global narrative is fitting.
DJ:DJIShort
by jlantrip
Buyers might already be in control, they just don't know it yet.We could actually have had our last leg down of the bear trend on the 11 of October; From January till now, the massive sellers appears to have gradually lost control, the size and time frame of the massive legs down became less and less strong; Bitcoin tried to form a bottom; The last leg down from October was very quickly bought and a short squeeze appeared; After this short squeeze, the trading range is extremely tight : this might announce the start of a new trend (blue rectangle); Market is also showing signs of sellers exaustion: Reversal candle visible on the 3D chart, and on the weekly chart 3D Chart: Weekly chart: This weekly trend reversal is actually very important, and i insist Bitcoin might still have bottomed at 5.700$ when the structure created an Head and Shoulders bottom in June () All is very calm, people and medias are bearish on cryptocurrencies right now, the BB are very tight. This should be set in as a contratian way of trading, which means that this is again a market buy opportunity. We still need to remain alert ; We want and need to see Bitcoin piercing the 2 main Smmas, and establishing a support on them if possible. Trading this market is very risky, i could be wrong and we could assist to a last leg down in Bitcoin. Summary: Buyers might already be in control, they just don't know it yet. They are scared of incoming leg(s) down. The comfirmation of the bear trend reversal would be why not a bear trap such as this one of 2015 Followed by a break out of the 2 daily Smmas, and a support move on them.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Giovi6969
6
Bitcoine : all you it needs to know about Hello bitcoine is done false breakoute yesterday, with actually weak force is stuck be low dezzending trendline, and red candle of today is indecizione candle e look likes false breakoute same as its before il markette of bear delle 2014, with hit of blue smma false breakout is its warning for me, becus we needs stay alert, bitcoine can go lower same as 2014 too many peopole is very bullish on social network bitcoine did not close over blue smma and 6.800 dollare, it cane be a trap if this have to happened, it will be very bull situation: break of dezzending trendline, e reteste trendline establish like support, for possibile new bull run But if bitcoine restestte 6.100 dollare, is its important sell signal. The la donna e god stays with you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Giovi6969
28
Part 2 - Risk-off August - VIX 2HZooming into the 2H chart, the February 2018 VIX spike has been labeled as the 1st leg of an Intermediate Degree bullish ABC formation. Intermediate (A) (orange) presents a three swings sequence with its Minor ABC (red) sub-waves, in which Minor C (red) is unfolding with an impulsive swing. Moving into Intermediate (B) (orange) and the corrective patterns, the entire structure has been labeled as a Zig-Zag, with a Leading Diagonal in Minor A (green), an Expanded Flat in Minor B (green) and an Impulse sequence in Minor C (green). The Correction in Intermediate (B) (orange) seems to have ended, and if this scenario would be correct, then VIX could commence a larger degree rise in an Impulsive sequence. The rise labeled as Minor 1 (red) exceeded the previous lower-high and this could indicate that an Impulsive sequence could be a possibility. Minor 2 (red) unfolded with a simple ABC (turquoise) correction, showing an Ending Diagonal in its last leg. Should the VIX be destined to spike once more, it could affect the markets more than the previous one did, as Intermediate (C) (orange) could present an Extension in its Impulse. Such imminent scenario would be invalidated or delayed only by a decrease below the 11.50 levels, as a wave two cannot surpass the start of a wave one. Looking back on the previous volatility spike and towards the way this affected the markets, it can be noticed that, during those volatile events, the reactions were divided. The USD remained stable towards strong, but the YEN was treated by investors as the true safe-haven asset. Metals and EUR lost considerable ground, while global Indices have shown historical one-week drops. By looking into each market, one would notice some possible patterns and correlations with the February 2018 bears return.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Lionheart-EWA
8