Crashingmarket
EUR/USD Crash????We can a clear downtrend forming with pairs like the euro and the pound that go against the dollar. The Euro has shown clear signs of bearish downfall through the vast number of bos to the downside and the vast amount of liquidity below that needs to be taken.
In the first scenario we see the possibility that price may move up to fill the IMB taking out any early sellers before continuing in the downtrend targeting the EQL liquidity below.
In the second scenario which I believe to be more likely, we see the Euro drop taking out the EQL liquidity before having enough momentum to retrace into 4H IMB or fill the IMB and push up towards the 6H supply and then crash at least until the bullish momentum on the dollar dies down and markets begin to form clean market structure rather than such euphoric price action
Gold Rush Knocks Dow Jones Industrial Average Off Its FeetGold as a value asset continues to shine brightly, having reached a new all-time high near $2,600 on Monday, September 16, marking the 30th all-time high for gold prices this year, 2024.
It is also noteworthy that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) to gold (XAUUSD) ratio is gravitating to ever lower values, while the time-tested indicator of a U.S. recession, based on the US labor market behavior signaling that one is imminent.
Thanks to @chinmaysk1 and its full of worth open source script Recession And Bull Run Warning, that I truly believe is one of the best over many.
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone,
The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
Decoding "THE GREAT DEPRESSION" !!! - #DJIThe great depression VS today's market structure!
- trying to find synergies between both timeline's
The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation
I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment..
chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation
Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence.
Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%.
The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply.
here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation.
www.bbc.co.uk
Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI
This show's the DJI coming to a similar % rally we saw during the great depression...
Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price..
Pretty scary chart to say the least!!..
But highlighting potential scenario's..
Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period.
*Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply.
The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession.
history often rhymes!
- my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise!
WHY?
The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's.
countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract.
Sentiment
The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession.
talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing!
Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960.
Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024!
were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI.
Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression!
Let me know your thought's in the comments below.
Will BTC Experience a 50% Crash Based on Ichimoku 2021 PatternI am sharing a critical analysis regarding the potential future of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern. While it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, I believe it is crucial to consider the indicators and make informed decisions.
According to the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern, BTC's current trajectory raises concerns about a potential 50% crash in the near future. This pattern has historically demonstrated some reliability, making it worth taking into account. However, it is important to remember that no analysis can guarantee exact outcomes, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various factors.
Considering this pattern, it may be prudent to evaluate your trading strategy and consider the possibility of shorting BTC. Shorting allows traders to profit from falling prices, providing a potential hedge against significant market downturns. However, please note that shorting involves risks and requires careful consideration, as losses can occur if the market moves against your position.
I encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with trusted advisors before making any trading decisions. It is vital to consider multiple indicators, market sentiment, and other factors that may influence BTC's price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable, and it is always wise to exercise caution and implement risk management strategies.
In conclusion, the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern suggests a potential 50% crash for BTC in the future. While this analysis provides valuable insights, it is essential to approach it with caution and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. Shorting BTC may be a consideration, but please assess the associated risks and consult with trusted experts.
Stay informed, stay vigilant, and make well-informed decisions. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this analysis further, please feel free to comment below.
Super Bullish USD - Long TermI Believe will we see a new era of economic Collapse in up coming Years. I don't know what will happen geopolitically, But you can see it has already started and happening all around the world.
The Chart tells me USD Willing to go see the last 2 decades High. if you check COT Data, The commercials already accepted that this is a solid Low for USD Index.
it's a Long-term forecast of USD index, and I know it may be nonsense. But if I want to make a decision just with Charts, I would Stay Liquid on USD for a while, I Forecast a Big crash in US Stock Markets and Indices. I Can See USD Index at 127!
Probable WW3 ? Chaos is Coming , Stay Sharp!
Disclaimer : This is just an analysis and not Financial Information. Do not Take action on this Information and Do Your Own Research.
Sincerely,
Sobhan JTN
TVC:DXY
Gold Bear Case - Wyckoff Distribution Pattern - Posting for funThis chart is for entertainment purposes only and setups up a possible bear scenario. I'm not an expert at distribution patterns but I thought it would be fun to see if this might fit the pattern.
I don't think gold is excluded from the 'everything bubble' that the Fed is trying to pop. The Fed has been very clear that interest rates are going to go higher and stay higher for a long time. Gold does not yield interest payments and so people are going to put their money in things that do (e.g. treasury bills paying 4-5% for a low risk return).
I would not be surprised to see a large correction in gold to prices below or at $1k.
I'm neither bearish or bullish on gold.
Enjoy.
Is a crash approaching?Hi, I had opened a short on the SP500 last night, all economic factors are pointing towards a recession whether it is interest rates, housing market, inflation or political leaders. This week the US 2 year treasury reached 5%, a level not seen since just before the financial crash. Waking up to the news of Silcon valley bank plummeting due to them announcing a share sale to help hold up their finances. This saw shares across the whole market drop, spooking investors. Shares in the four largest banks dropped more than $50 billion. I believe this could be the catalyst to start the next financial crash, I had already made some predictions on this a few months ago in September 22.
SVB is also a big lender to the tech industry which has built up as the foundations of the current economy.
Maybe I'm wrong - let me know your thoughts!
Comparing Vanguard to BTC In both of these charts, you can see the correlation between 2 sectors that had if not IDENTICAL run ups due to their nature of being overbought and unregulated. (housing crisis of 08 vs Crypto crisis of 2022)
As of now we are still on our path downwards. The housing crisis took until Nov 2007 to late 2009 to start on the path of recovery. We know cryptocurrency is here to stay and the technological advances in our payments systems and the way we book keep and communicate will eventually if not be on blockchains.
Being that it took us 2 years to recover from the housing crash by implementing regs such as Dodd Frank and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, ext. we have a much more investor friendly housing market. Crypto will soon be on that path with regulations. 2023 should be a ideal year to add to short positions or even build upon current ones. However 2024 it would be unsafe to carry that mentality. Regardless of who is president, this market sentiment will turn around and 2024 we can expect a reversal.
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008.
The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market.
TECHNICALS:
The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008.
Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008.
A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard.
Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices)
OANDA:US30USD
SP:SPX
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:DIA
Stay safe all and God bless.
BITCOIN CHART PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (SLAUGHTER!!) Warning, I repeat warning! This is a very urgent matter that we need to discuss. 21,400$ will not hold, I repeat, it will not hold. As you can see we have so much downward momentum because of the fact that the SP500 and the NASDAQ have been rejected on their monthly resistance trendlines, you might be wondering what trendlines? You can see a NASDAQ chart in my profile, a multi-month resistance trendline dating back 2021 exactly where it U-turned from the top. Please be cautious of longing anything right now until we respective lows.
My current speculation is that once we drop to 19,400$ we will have a reaction rally up to 20,000$-20,800$ where this will be IMMEDIATELY shorted on the coming weekend. We'll most likely have a period of consolidation in the weekends and a continuation du mp once market opens on monday or we can also dump on monday while we consolidate now at 21,400$. Be warned!
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Home-Builders DROP WORSE THAN 2008 - Canary in the Mine screamsLast Time The National Home Builders Index Dropped repeatedly - The 2008 Market CRASH and Deep Recession happened right after.
And Now It has Dropped Sharpest in its History.
The Canary is the Builder sentiment - Dropped to 55, a drop of 12 points.
This is the largest single-month drop ever, with one exception. The exception being April 2020. As you may recall, the world had decide to shut down at exactly that time.
Or is it the Scream of the Crashing Market ?
Dollar Crash Coming Primed READY!~Liquidity Grab, Looking at Two POI's, Second Level is a Monthly POI
Levels where failure can be put into play,
First Target Below, Long Term Target to Follow,
Always good to know what DXY is doing, understanding of this can be massive on other ASSETS!
Something is brewing,
Good Luck Traders!~
Wall St Cheat Sheet Says Bitcoin (BTC) in hopium phaseThis is just for fun. I'm predicting we are in the hope phase of the Wall St Cheat Sheet.
If you think about it. That describes what everyone is doing...hoping that BTC is adopted by more people and moves into the next phase (optimism).
I do not believe BTC is crashing. We might have even seen the yearly bottom put in after it found support at the bottom of the channel it's been in.
Bitcoin looks very healthy and in an uptrend. The trend is your friend until the end.
Traditionally, it's been the best time to buy at the bottom of the channel. Usually though nobody does because it feels like it's going to fall off a cliff.