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Gold Rush Knocks Dow Jones Industrial Average Off Its FeetGold as a value asset continues to shine brightly, having reached a new all-time high near $2,600 on Monday, September 16, marking the 30th all-time high for gold prices this year, 2024. It is also noteworthy that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) to gold (XAUUSD) ratio is gravitating to ever lower values, while the time-tested indicator of a U.S. recession, based on the US labor market behavior signaling that one is imminent. Thanks to @chinmaysk1 and its full of worth open source script Recession And Bull Run Warning, that I truly believe is one of the best over many.
TVC:DJI
by Pandorra
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
FRED:UNRATE
by justaturboman44
Decoding "THE GREAT DEPRESSION" !!! - #DJIThe great depression VS today's market structure! - trying to find synergies between both timeline's The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment.. chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence. Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%. The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply. here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation. www.bbc.co.uk Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI This show's the DJI coming to a similar % rally we saw during the great depression... Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price.. Pretty scary chart to say the least!!.. But highlighting potential scenario's.. Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period. *Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply. The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession. history often rhymes! - my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise! WHY? The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's. countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract. Sentiment The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession. talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing! Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960. Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024! were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI. Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression! Let me know your thought's in the comments below.
TVC:DJI
by dibz1996
Will BTC Experience a 50% Crash Based on Ichimoku 2021 PatternI am sharing a critical analysis regarding the potential future of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern. While it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, I believe it is crucial to consider the indicators and make informed decisions. According to the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern, BTC's current trajectory raises concerns about a potential 50% crash in the near future. This pattern has historically demonstrated some reliability, making it worth taking into account. However, it is important to remember that no analysis can guarantee exact outcomes, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various factors. Considering this pattern, it may be prudent to evaluate your trading strategy and consider the possibility of shorting BTC. Shorting allows traders to profit from falling prices, providing a potential hedge against significant market downturns. However, please note that shorting involves risks and requires careful consideration, as losses can occur if the market moves against your position. I encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with trusted advisors before making any trading decisions. It is vital to consider multiple indicators, market sentiment, and other factors that may influence BTC's price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable, and it is always wise to exercise caution and implement risk management strategies. In conclusion, the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern suggests a potential 50% crash for BTC in the future. While this analysis provides valuable insights, it is essential to approach it with caution and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. Shorting BTC may be a consideration, but please assess the associated risks and consult with trusted experts. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and make well-informed decisions. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this analysis further, please feel free to comment below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
Super Bullish USD - Long TermI Believe will we see a new era of economic Collapse in up coming Years. I don't know what will happen geopolitically, But you can see it has already started and happening all around the world. The Chart tells me USD Willing to go see the last 2 decades High. if you check COT Data, The commercials already accepted that this is a solid Low for USD Index. it's a Long-term forecast of USD index, and I know it may be nonsense. But if I want to make a decision just with Charts, I would Stay Liquid on USD for a while, I Forecast a Big crash in US Stock Markets and Indices. I Can See USD Index at 127! Probable WW3 ? Chaos is Coming , Stay Sharp! Disclaimer : This is just an analysis and not Financial Information. Do not Take action on this Information and Do Your Own Research. Sincerely, Sobhan JTN TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYLong
by sobhanjtn
Gold Bear Case - Wyckoff Distribution Pattern - Posting for funThis chart is for entertainment purposes only and setups up a possible bear scenario. I'm not an expert at distribution patterns but I thought it would be fun to see if this might fit the pattern. I don't think gold is excluded from the 'everything bubble' that the Fed is trying to pop. The Fed has been very clear that interest rates are going to go higher and stay higher for a long time. Gold does not yield interest payments and so people are going to put their money in things that do (e.g. treasury bills paying 4-5% for a low risk return). I would not be surprised to see a large correction in gold to prices below or at $1k. I'm neither bearish or bullish on gold. Enjoy.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by XYZ-Trader-
Is a crash approaching?Hi, I had opened a short on the SP500 last night, all economic factors are pointing towards a recession whether it is interest rates, housing market, inflation or political leaders. This week the US 2 year treasury reached 5%, a level not seen since just before the financial crash. Waking up to the news of Silcon valley bank plummeting due to them announcing a share sale to help hold up their finances. This saw shares across the whole market drop, spooking investors. Shares in the four largest banks dropped more than $50 billion. I believe this could be the catalyst to start the next financial crash, I had already made some predictions on this a few months ago in September 22. SVB is also a big lender to the tech industry which has built up as the foundations of the current economy. Maybe I'm wrong - let me know your thoughts!
SP:SPXShort
by HBSPG
Comparing Vanguard to BTC In both of these charts, you can see the correlation between 2 sectors that had if not IDENTICAL run ups due to their nature of being overbought and unregulated. (housing crisis of 08 vs Crypto crisis of 2022) As of now we are still on our path downwards. The housing crisis took until Nov 2007 to late 2009 to start on the path of recovery. We know cryptocurrency is here to stay and the technological advances in our payments systems and the way we book keep and communicate will eventually if not be on blockchains. Being that it took us 2 years to recover from the housing crash by implementing regs such as Dodd Frank and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, ext. we have a much more investor friendly housing market. Crypto will soon be on that path with regulations. 2023 should be a ideal year to add to short positions or even build upon current ones. However 2024 it would be unsafe to carry that mentality. Regardless of who is president, this market sentiment will turn around and 2024 we can expect a reversal.
AMEX:VTIShort
by kiashedgefund
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008. The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market. TECHNICALS: The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008. Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008. A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard. Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices) OANDA:US30USD SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA Stay safe all and God bless.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by andremkv
BITCOIN CHART PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (SLAUGHTER!!) Warning, I repeat warning! This is a very urgent matter that we need to discuss. 21,400$ will not hold, I repeat, it will not hold. As you can see we have so much downward momentum because of the fact that the SP500 and the NASDAQ have been rejected on their monthly resistance trendlines, you might be wondering what trendlines? You can see a NASDAQ chart in my profile, a multi-month resistance trendline dating back 2021 exactly where it U-turned from the top. Please be cautious of longing anything right now until we respective lows. My current speculation is that once we drop to 19,400$ we will have a reaction rally up to 20,000$-20,800$ where this will be IMMEDIATELY shorted on the coming weekend. We'll most likely have a period of consolidation in the weekends and a continuation du mp once market opens on monday or we can also dump on monday while we consolidate now at 21,400$. Be warned! ----------------------------- Do you like this chart? Save it, bookmark it, like it, comment it and share it. Its totally free!
Short
by Wamses
1
Home-Builders DROP WORSE THAN 2008 - Canary in the Mine screamsLast Time The National Home Builders Index Dropped repeatedly - The 2008 Market CRASH and Deep Recession happened right after. And Now It has Dropped Sharpest in its History. The Canary is the Builder sentiment - Dropped to 55, a drop of 12 points. This is the largest single-month drop ever, with one exception. The exception being April 2020. As you may recall, the world had decide to shut down at exactly that time. Or is it the Scream of the Crashing Market ?
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by cure4virus
Wall St Cheat Sheet Says Bitcoin (BTC) in hopium phaseThis is just for fun. I'm predicting we are in the hope phase of the Wall St Cheat Sheet. If you think about it. That describes what everyone is doing...hoping that BTC is adopted by more people and moves into the next phase (optimism). I do not believe BTC is crashing. We might have even seen the yearly bottom put in after it found support at the bottom of the channel it's been in. Bitcoin looks very healthy and in an uptrend. The trend is your friend until the end. Traditionally, it's been the best time to buy at the bottom of the channel. Usually though nobody does because it feels like it's going to fall off a cliff.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by XYZ-Trader-
5
The 5 Crashes That Shook The Markets.A very brief look at 5 of the most significant market crashes to date, using the Dow Jones Index. Content taken from various online sources. Great Crash 1929 Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve, the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer. During the mid- to late 1920s, the stock market in the United States underwent rapid expansion. It continued for the first six months following President Herbert Hoover’s inauguration in January 1929. The prices of stocks soared to fantastic heights in the great “Hoover bull market,” and the public, from banking and industrial magnates to chauffeurs and cooks, rushed to brokers to invest their liquid assets or their savings in securities, which they could sell at a profit. Billions of dollars were drawn from the banks into Wall Street for brokers’ loans to carry margin accounts. The stock market stubbornly kept on climbing. That is, until October 1929, when it all came tumbling down. Catching on to the market's overheated situation, seasoned investors began "taking profits" in the autumn of 1929. Share prices started to stutter. They first crash on Oct. 24, 1929, markets opened 11% lower than the previous day. After this "Black Thursday," they rallied briefly. But prices fell again the following Monday. Many investors couldn't make their margin calls. Wholesale panic set in, leading to more selling. On "Black Tuesday," Oct. 29, investors unloaded millions of shares — and kept on unloading. There were literally no buyers. The rapid decline in U.S. stocks contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Great Depression lasted approximately 10 years and affected both industrialized and non industrialized countries in many parts of the world. When Franklin D. Roosevelt became President in 1933, he almost immediately started pushing through Congress a series of programs and projects called the New Deal. How much the New Deal actually alleviated the depression is a matter of some debate — throughout the decade, production remained low and unemployment high. But the New Deal did more than attempt to stabilize the economy, provide relief to jobless Americans and create previously unheard of safety net programs, as well as regulate the private sector. It also reshaped the role of government, with programs that are now part of the fabric of American society. Black Monday 1987 Many market analysts theorize that the Black Monday crash of 1987 was largely driven simply by a strong bull market that was overdue for a major correction. 1987 marked the fifth year of a major bull market that had not experienced a single major corrective retracement of prices since its inception in 1982. Stock prices had more than tripled in value in the previous four and a half years, rising by 44% in 1987 alone, prior to the Black Monday crash. The other culprit pinpointed as contributing to the severe crash was computerized trading. Computer, or “program trading,” was still relatively new to the markets in the mid-1980s. The use of computers enabled brokers to place larger orders and implement trades more quickly. In addition, the software programs developed by banks, brokerages, and other firms were set to automatically execute stop-loss orders, selling out positions, if stocks dropped by a certain percentage. On Black Monday, the computerized trading systems created a domino effect, continually accelerating the pace of selling as the market dropped, thus causing it to drop even further. The avalanche of selling that was triggered by the initial losses resulted in stock prices dropping even further, which in turn triggered more rounds of computer-driven selling. A third factor in the crash was “portfolio insurance,” which, like computerized trading, was a relatively new phenomenon at the time. Portfolio insurance involved large institutional investors partially hedging their stock portfolios by taking short positions in S&P 500 futures. The portfolio insurance strategies were designed to automatically increase their short futures positions if there was a significant decline in stock prices. On Black Monday, the practice triggered the same domino effect as the computerized trading programs. As stock prices declined, large investors sold short more S&P 500 futures contracts. The downward pressure in the futures market put additional selling pressure on the stock market. In short, the stock market dropped, which caused increased short selling in the futures market, which caused more investors to sell stocks, which caused more investors to short sell stock futures. A key consequence of the Black Monday crash was the development and implementation of “circuit breakers.” In the aftermath of the 1987 crash, stock exchanges worldwide implemented “circuit breakers” that temporarily halt trading when major stock indices decline by a specified percentage. For example, as of 2019, if the S&P 500 Index falls by more than 7% from the previous day’s closing price, it trips the first circuit breaker, which halts all stock trading for 15 minutes. The second circuit breaker is triggered if there is a 13% drop in the index from the previous close, and if the third circuit breaker level is triggered – by a 20% decline – then trading is halted for the remainder of the day. The purpose of the circuit breaker system is to try to avoid a market panic where investors just start recklessly selling out all their holdings. It’s widely believed that such a general panic is to blame for much of the severity of the Black Monday crash. The temporary halts in trading that occur under the circuit breaker system are designed to give investors a space to catch their breath and, hopefully, take the time to make rational trading decisions, thereby avoiding a blind panic of stock selling. The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. Dotcom Bubble 2000 The dotcom crash was triggered by the rise and fall of technology stocks. The growth of the Internet created a buzz among investors, who were quick to pour money into start-up companies. These companies were able to raise enough money to go public without a business plan, product, or track record of profits. These companies quickly ran through their cash, which caused them to go under. The Internet bubble, grew out of a combination of the presence of speculative or fad-based investing, the abundance of venture capital funding for start-ups, and the failure of dotcoms to turn a profit. Investors poured money into Internet start-ups during the 1990s hoping they would one day become profitable. Many investors and venture capitalists abandoned a cautious approach for fear of not being able to cash in on the growing use of the Internet. With capital markets throwing money at the sector, start-ups were in a race to quickly get big. Companies without any proprietary technology abandoned fiscal responsibility. They spent a fortune on marketing to establish brands that would set them apart from the competition. Some start-ups spent as much as 90% of their budget on advertising. Record amounts of capital started flowing into the Nasdaq in 1997. By 1999, 39% of all venture capital investments were going to Internet companies. That year, most of the 457 initial public offerings (IPOs) were related to Internet companies, followed by 91 in the first quarter of 2000 alone. The high-water mark was the AOL Time Warner megamerger in January 2000, which became the biggest merger failure in history. As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that reached market capitalizations in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly-traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated. The bubble ultimately burst, leaving many investors facing steep losses and several Internet companies going bust. Companies that famously survived the bubble include Amazon, eBay, and Priceline. The US government would date the start of the dot-com recession as beginning in March 2001. And by the time of the economic shock from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there was no longer any doubt. In that tragic month of September, for the first time in 26 years, not a single IPO came to market. The dot-com era was over. Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 The crisis, often referred to as “The Great Recession,” didn’t happen overnight. There were many factors present leading up to the crisis, and their effects linger to this day. The foundation of the global financial crisis was built on the back of the housing market bubble that began to form in 2007. Banks and lending institutions offered low interest rates on mortgages and encouraged many homeowners to take out loans that they couldn’t afford. With all the mortgages flooding in, lenders created new financial instruments called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which were essentially mortgages bundled together that could then be sold as securities with minimal risk load due to the fact that they were backed by credit default swaps (CDS). Lenders could then easily pass along the mortgages – and all the risk. Outdated regulations that weren’t rigorously enforced allowed lenders to get sloppy with underwriting, meaning the actual value of the securities couldn’t be established or guaranteed. Banks began to lend recklessly to families and individuals without true means to follow through on the mortgages they’d been granted. Such high-risk (subprime) loans were then inevitably bundled together and passed down the line. As the subprime mortgage bundles grew in number to an overwhelming degree, with a large percentage moving into default, lending institutions began to face financial difficulties. It led to the dismal financial conditions around the world during the 2008-2009 period and continued for years to come. Financial stresses peaked following the failure of the US financial firm Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Together with the failure or near failure of a range of other financial firms around that time, this triggered a panic in financial markets globally. Many who took out subprime mortgages eventually defaulted. When they could not pay, financial institutions took major hits. The government, however, stepped in to bail out banks. The housing market was deeply impacted by the crisis. Evictions and foreclosures began within months. The stock market, in response, began to plummet and major businesses worldwide began to fail, losing millions. This, of course, resulted in widespread layoffs and extended periods of unemployment worldwide. Declining credit availability and failing confidence in financial stability led to fewer and more cautious investments, and international trade slowed to a crawl. Eventually, the United States responded to the crisis by passing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which used an expansionary monetary policy, facilitated bank bailouts and mergers, and worked towards stimulating economic growth. Covid Crash 2020 The 2020 crash occurred because investors were worried about the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The uncertainty over the danger of the virus, plus the shuttering of many businesses and industries as states implemented shutdown orders, damaged many sectors of the economy. Investors predicted that workers would be laid off, resulting in high unemployment and decreased purchasing power. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease a pandemic. The organization was concerned that government leaders weren't doing enough to stop the rapidly spreading virus. Investors had also been jittery ever since President Donald Trump launched trade wars with China and other countries. Under both the Trump and Biden administrations, the federal government passed multiple bills to stimulate the economy. These included help directed at specific sectors, cash payments to taxpayers, increases in unemployment insurance, and rental assistance. These measures further soothed investors, leading to additional gains in the stock market. Investors were also encouraged by the development and distribution of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, which began under the Trump administration. The driving forces behind the stock market crash of 2020 were unprecedented. However, investor confidence remained high, propelled by a combination of federal stimulus and vaccine development.
TVC:DJIEducation
by bL1TZZ
9