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Crashpattern

Gold Rush Knocks Dow Jones Industrial Average Off Its FeetGold as a value asset continues to shine brightly, having reached a new all-time high near $2,600 on Monday, September 16, marking the 30th all-time high for gold prices this year, 2024. It is also noteworthy that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) to gold (XAUUSD) ratio is gravitating to ever lower values, while the time-tested indicator of a U.S. recession, based on the US labor market behavior signaling that one is imminent. Thanks to @chinmaysk1 and its full of worth open source script Recession And Bull Run Warning, that I truly believe is one of the best over many.
TVC:DJI
by Pandorra
USD/JPY breaking down from channel support line..!The Japaneese yen is getting stronger after the japaneese stock market is crashing. People panic selling stocks to buy Yen.. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei stock was the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987. Looking at FX:USDJPY we have broken down from the trading range we have been in since DEC 2022. We could now go up for a re-test of the channel resistance line before further downside could be the next moove. Next demand zones should be at about 137 and 131 and i look for a short opportunity at the re-test of channel resistance line. Make sure to follow me on X for weekly trade analysis: @PuppyNakamoto
Short
by WOLFofBlockStreet
Shanghai Composite. 'Arctic Fox' leaps on Shanghai street cornerReal estate has made China rich in recent years and decades. Now it looks more like radioactive kryptonite from the DC Comics universe - the birthplace of Superman. Three months earlier, China's house prices fell 0.4% in a month, according to official statistics released in November 2023, the steepest drop since February 2015, according to Bloomberg data . It was one sign that a key engine of the world's second-largest economy is still faltering despite Beijing's multiple stimulus packages. At the same time, prices for secondary housing fell by 0.6% in October, which is the highest figure in nine years. According to the Cato Institute data , private property accounts for 1/4 of China's total gross domestic product and nearly 70% of all household wealth. This means that falling house prices have become a serious burden on the economy. The situation is exacerbated by a seemingly endless debt crisis that has left the country's two largest property developers on the brink of collapse, with both Evergrande and Country Garden defaulting on bond repayments in recent years. Evergrande serves as an example of how an industry that contributed to China's economic boom and prosperity for decades has become toxic and has become a point of weakness and decline. The company was founded in 1996 and built huge residential complexes in the city center, helping to accelerate China's shift away from a socialist agrarian economy. The company eventually expanded beyond real estate, opening separate businesses selling bottled water and electric vehicles, and in 2010 it bought a Chinese soccer club that would go on to become the country's most successful team. These days, the former giant is struggling for cash and facing liquidation. China's fragile housing market is back in the spotlight at the start of 2024, following the release of a batch of fresh statistics. China's troubled property market ended last year with the worst decline in new home prices in nearly nine years, despite government efforts to prop up a sector that was once a key driver of the second-largest economy. New home prices in December showed their sharpest fall since February 2015, while property sales measured by area fell 23% in December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, January 17, 2024. Of the 70 cities included in the NBS house price data, 62 reported falling prices. Markets immediately responded with a strong decline, exacerbating the accumulated negative returns since the start of 2024. Big China Indices Crash by Mid-January, 2024 At the same time, property developer investment in December fell year-on-year at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. Overall, real estate investment fell 9.6% in 2023, roughly matching the decline in 2022. Several Chinese developers, including China Evergrande Group HKEX:3333 and Country Garden HKEX:2007 defaulted on their offshore debts and entered into restructuring processes. Country Garden, the country's largest private real estate developer, warned this week that it expects the real estate market to remain weak into 2024. The technical main chart is dedicated to the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, which, judging by the current scenario, will experience far from the best year in its history, as a result of the index breaking down its narrowing multi-year range. // Photo: “Arctic fox” leaps on Shanghai street corner . 💡 February, 2024 Notes 👉 Chinese stocks are falling for the 6th month in a row by February 2024 against the backdrop of the weakness of the Chinese economy, while SSE:000001 Shanghai Composite Stock Index fell below its 200-month SMA for the first time in its history. 👉 An extremely rare Bearish Super Combo in the Chinese financial market of 6 consecutive monthly declines is the result of disappointment with economic data and PRC government measures to support the economy. 👉 Industrial activity in China fell for the fourth month in a row in January, official data showed on Wednesday. PMI indexes point to a bleak picture of continued contraction in manufacturing, roughly unchanged activity in the services sector and a slowdown in construction, Nomura analysts said. 👉 Weak economic recovery and limited support measures have affected investor sentiment. The Hang Seng Tech Index of Hong Kong-listed tech giants HSI:HSTECH fell 20% in January, while Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland property developer Hang Seng index fell 19%.
SSE:000001
by Pandorra
My Stock Market Crash FantasyOn the left we see 29 trading days from peak. On the right we see 29 trading days from peak before the historical stock market crash of 1987. It is a stock market crash fantasy because huge stock market crashes are very rare events that are most likely not to occur. That being said, IF a crash is going to occur it would more than likely *only* start very soon after an extreme rally up. Secondly, if it is going to occur in a manner similar to the 1987 and 1929 crashes, then there is only a short window of opportunity for it to occur. The time window of 29 days to final peak is now in alignment from 1929, 1987 and 2024. Will it occur? It probably will not occur if we start to rally from this point forward. But if we start right NOW to get some hard down days and stronger lower low and lower high days going into the first week of September, then maybe just maybe the stock market crash fantasy won't be a fantasy anymore. Some technical notes: we continue to have many and plenty of Carl V bearish technical patterns on major indices that points to a test of the August 5 lows. A move down to those lows into the the first week of September would be a very bearish sign for markets, but it is unknown whether such a big decline could happen that fast again.
SP:SPX
by TomNewYork
USD/JPY breaking down from channel support line..!The Japaneese yen is getting stronger after the japaneese stock market is crashing. People panic selling stocks to buy Yen.. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei stock was the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987. Looking at FX:USDJPY we have broken down from the trading range we have been in since DEC 2022. We could now go up for a re-test of the channel resistance line before further downside could be the next moove. Next demand zones should be at about 137 and 131 and i look for a short opportunity at the re-test of channel resistance line. Make sure to follow me on X for weekly trade analysis: @PuppyNakamoto
Short
by WOLFofBlockStreet
A Crypto Dance of Trajectories with the Same OutcomeIn my revised Bitcoin update for BTCUSD, I outline two potential trajectories. In the short term, I am bearish, while my intermediate short-term outlook is bullish, anticipating a spike. However, my longer-term view remains bearish. Among the two projected paths, I assign a slightly higher probability (60%) to the Green Line trajectory occurring. This probability would be even higher if the VIX were not at a key support level. The elevated probability for the Green Line trajectory is influenced by the suppressed VIX, given its derivation from the S&P 500 Index. Although Bitcoin is a "risk-on" asset, it often proxies the S&P 500. In the short term, we should consider the potential shift from the stock market to crypto. Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of market uncertainty, partly due to distrust in the US dollar and media hype. Additionally, the current push in big tech and AI, along with crypto’s involvement in these ecosystems, might support Bitcoin more than the S&P 500. However, this remains speculative and highly assumptive.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by candlestickninja
2024 SPX Thought ExperimentIn my previous post on AMEX:SPY , I presented the argument for a potential 30-35% market crash in 2024, following new all-time highs. This updated chart incorporates worst-case scenarios and draws parallels with the DOT Com bear market of 2000-2003. > Utilizing the year 2000 as an analogy for comparing market cycles. This provides valuable insights into similarities and differences in behavior. > While each market cycle is inherently unique, the adage holds: history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Outlined Scenarios: Scenario 1: Anticipating a 35% decline to 3200. This projection is grounded in the analysis of dark pool positioning and technical patterns, with support identified around the 2019 highs. Scenario 2: Contemplating a market crash mirroring the severity of the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis, featuring a potential 57% decline. Such an event could be triggered by a credit event, with precursors observed in 2023, including the failure of some prominent banks. Scenario 3: Pondering a drastic market meltdown akin to 1929, with a conservative estimate of a 70% decline. This scenario would involve a significant credit event and possibly multiple unforeseen shocks, such as global conflict (WW3), loss of USD reserve status, or other speculative events (BLACK SWANS). While Option 3 appears highly unlikely, recent years have seen several unprecedented events, reminding us to stay vigilant as traders. Monitoring price actions and adjusting strategies accordingly is crucial. Always prioritize risk management to safeguard your positions in the ever-evolving market landscape.
TVC:SPXShort
by SuperDaveG
$SPY $SPX The next 12 months new ATH Then CRASH?AMEX:SPY CBOE:SPX The next 12 months ---------------------------------- It's looking like this rally is set to pullback before one final push higher to the 480 area to create a Double Top That's 5% higher from current levels plus whatever pullback we get now Then a CRASH📉 of at least 35% even more for the #NASDAQ SPY could go higher than 480 but I'm not seeing any institutional positioning above that yet and there is a whole lot stacking up below There's a lot of talk on here about crashes📉 and melt ups📈 but the bottom line they are all just opinions including mine Make decisions based on what price is doing and be prepared if things line up as I have laid out What do you think the market will do in the next 12 months?
AMEX:SPY
by SuperDaveG
2
Will BTC Experience a 50% Crash Based on Ichimoku 2021 PatternI am sharing a critical analysis regarding the potential future of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern. While it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, I believe it is crucial to consider the indicators and make informed decisions. According to the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern, BTC's current trajectory raises concerns about a potential 50% crash in the near future. This pattern has historically demonstrated some reliability, making it worth taking into account. However, it is important to remember that no analysis can guarantee exact outcomes, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various factors. Considering this pattern, it may be prudent to evaluate your trading strategy and consider the possibility of shorting BTC. Shorting allows traders to profit from falling prices, providing a potential hedge against significant market downturns. However, please note that shorting involves risks and requires careful consideration, as losses can occur if the market moves against your position. I encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with trusted advisors before making any trading decisions. It is vital to consider multiple indicators, market sentiment, and other factors that may influence BTC's price movements. Remember, the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable, and it is always wise to exercise caution and implement risk management strategies. In conclusion, the Ichimoku Cloud 2021 pattern suggests a potential 50% crash for BTC in the future. While this analysis provides valuable insights, it is essential to approach it with caution and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. Shorting BTC may be a consideration, but please assess the associated risks and consult with trusted experts. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and make well-informed decisions. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this analysis further, please feel free to comment below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
17000s by October 2023BTC is showing signals that the B-wave of its corrective phase has completed and it will be starting its C-wave to complete the structure. The C wave will take it to new lows in 2024, this idea projects the first leg down to kick off the C-wave. Initial target 17793 by 10/10/2023 The breakdown level was 27791, so as long as it stays below that I am expecting it to continue down along the black trajectory. A break above could open the door to 37k as a best case for bulls. On the way to 17000s it needs to breakdown 24-25k. This is bearish people.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by JerryManders
23
So much similarity - 1929 stock market and today I have broken it into 2 parts. Part 1 – we can associate it with the sequence then. Part 2 – we can take reference as the situation unfolds. Part 1 - 1929 sequence that seems familiar today: a) Crisis triggered by several factors b) Stocks rose rapidly c) Chain reaction of events d) Bank had invested heavily e) Bank failed Part 2 - As it continued in 1929: f) Decrease in the money supply g) Decrease production & employment i) Decline spending & investment j) The cycle continued Following the video comparing the 1929 stock crash followed-by the great depression and the recent years, there are many similarities between its technical and fundamental developments. Trading & Hedging in Nasdaq - E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
1929 Stock Market & Today The story of 1929 - The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that lasted from 1929 to the late 1930s. There were several factors that contributed to the trigger of the Great Depression, but the key trigger is often attributed to the stock market crash of 1929. In the 1920s, there was a period of economic growth and prosperity in the United States, also known as the "Roaring Twenties." During this time, people invested heavily in the stock market, and the prices of stocks rose rapidly. However, in September and October of 1929, the stock market began to decline, and on October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday," panic selling began, causing the stock market to crash. The stock market crash led to a chain reaction of events that contributed to the Great Depression. Banks had invested heavily in the stock market and had also made loans to individuals and businesses that were unable to repay them. As a result, many banks failed, leading to a loss of confidence in the banking system. The collapse of the banking system led to a decrease in the money supply, which caused a decline in spending and investment. The decline in spending and investment led to a decrease in production and employment, which caused a further decline in spending and investment, and the cycle continued. In summary, the key trigger for the Great Depression was the stock market crash of 1929, which led to a chain reaction of events that caused the collapse of the banking system and a severe decrease in spending and investment. I am seeing similarities between its technical and fundamental. My view on technical as a study into "Behavioral price movement" , it refers to the fluctuations in the price of a financial asset that are caused by the collective behavior of investors, traders and events. And they tend to repeat itself. Trading & Hedging in Nasdaq - E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options: Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
2
The Russell Riddle: which chart is 2008? ($IWM W) For the answer, scroll down to the comment section. Two charts of $IWM weekly TF. One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023). The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop. Which one crashed 50%? The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008? There are many possible answers, none of them wrong. The one that interests me is the possibility that our bias is more extreme when we have experienced (traded) the price history. In this case it means experiencing the climb from the October 2022 lows. The alternative is basing our bias on the price history in a chart but *without* experiencing the returns themselves. For example IWM's similar price action in 2008. Any difference in sentiment would be consistent with studies showing that decisions made from experience often diverge from those based on description.
AMEX:IWM
by gb50k
10
DXY setting up for huge bounce to coincide with crypto crash pt2Interesting chart here on the DXY daily we can see the sharp pull back to strong support line so that’s one more clue that things are about to get uglier in the crypto space. This past week‘s events have cast the block shadow on the entire industry and likely will put increased pressure on institutions and big investors to further limit exposure. In the life cycle of investor emotions, were seeing capitulation but I haven’t quite seen the final stage of despondency that ear marks the true bottom. So I think we have further to drop, likely to $14,000, or $12,500 which would be the 100 month moving average. There is also still the unfilled CME gap between 9750 and 9780 so a $10,000 bitcoin could still be in the cards for this is all over.
TVC:DXYShort
by BrettFogle
3
Stock Market fast crashing 35-40% next week?We are currently seeing a pattern which happened in the 1929 and 1987 crashes. The idea is based on the correlation between stock patterns with Jewish holidays. Both times in 1929 and 1987 we saw a local bottom at the Rosh Hashanah holiday. The local bottom caused a bounce towards the Yom Kippur holiday, forming a local top. Following Yom Kippur the stock market started a strong downtrend. However after 6-7 trading days a bounce was observed. Now in 2022 we are seeing the same pattern! We even got a bounce yesterday fitting with the crash pattern. This would conclude that based on the pattern, a fast crash of 35-42% could happen within days with a bottom end October - Early November. A 42% crash would cause a sweep of the covid crash lows which is a very significant level. This is a very speculative pattern but worth keeping an eye on! Just get some cash ready to buy the crash if it actually happens... Trade safe! 1987 chart:
DJ:DJIShort
by TradingJoker_
3