The chart posted is that of the CRB index The basket of ALL things . Iam looking for the High for the year in the stock market to form this jan 11 to the 18 and the Low for the CRB this should push the 10 yr into the last drop from 3.76 to 3.81 and then the TROUBLE
Looking like Oil is on a path to continue to outperform Gold
regular target is 2.5X outperformance
This is quite troubling since Gold is on the verge of a triple top breakout versus the dollar
commodities supercycle?
will Oil even be freely available in 20 years??
Fiat debasement?
New energy technologies?
We’ve become so accustomed to headlines of ‘peak inflation’ and falling input prices that some have been throwing the wonderful ‘deflation’ word around. And we think most would enjoy a bit of deflation, as that would result in lower interest rates. However, with commodity prices (particularly oil) being a key driver of inflation, a lot of the softness can be tied...
This weeks chart features commodities & the benefits of investment portfolio diversification. US Equities (shown here via $SPY, plotted in orange) had a tremendous run off the March 2020 Covid lows. But if you've missed it, note how the relative strength of commodities (in this case the CRB index) have outperformed SPY (relationship graphed via the blue line)...
OJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash.
With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has...
I couldn't find any ETFs for oranges, I don't think one exists. In instances like this you have to get creative.
In one of my value scanners, I found a citrus company $LMNR Limoniera. International citrus producer.
I've been long this stock since it the mid-$14s.
If the thesis on commodities, oranges, and global reflation turns out to be even somewhat correct,...
Expected increase in price of commodities for this year.
Remember that in this index, each asset has different a weight and includes 19 commodities. According to Investopedia:
39% allocated to energy contracts
41% to agriculture
7% to precious metals
13% to industrial metals
Related indices:
SPGSCI: S&P Goldman & Sachs Commodity Index
BCOM: Bloomberg...
I don’t think its a coincidence that commodities across the board are looking bullish at exactly the same time as the economy is slowing down and the Fed is quietly conducting QE4. Fed bought twice as many bonds this month than their monthly total during QE3. October rate cut odds are at 90%.
I don’t think inflation is going to explode tomorrow but I do think...
Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next.
Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could...
