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💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Nov 28’22 4025/4030 Bear Call Spread💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Nov 28’22 4025/4030 Bear Call Spread Credit Received: $95 The equity net short positioning is gone, but we are far from a meaningful net long. Skew has caught a bid (put demand > call demand) lately as participants have closed out equity shorts. The increase in skew suggests people are switching into hedging the downside via puts, instead of running delta 1 shorts (short stock). In other words, in the case of a negative catalyst participant hedging may pressure markets lower and would quickly bid implied volatility. There may be a grab for some protection in the AM as participants await new data on 11/30. Ultimately we continue to view $4,000 as fair value due to balanced gamma (calls + puts) tied to that strike and this may invoke mean reversion activity today. If I am wrong on direction and the market rallies in the AM, I will simply convert to a butterfly. $4025 is our upside pin forecast.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by 0dteTraders
Credit Conditions and the Fed: Part 2In part 2 I take a quick look at high yield corporates and describe a common mistake made in using ETF ratios to monitor changes in credit risk. Part one and an earlier piece that described how to use the TradingView platform to monitor secondary market credit spreads are linked below. If there is any one thing that will produce a Fed policy a pivot, it is credit distress. Credit is far more vital to economic functionality than equity. If companies are unable to secure funding, they may face liquidity issues, and if liquidity problems become widespread, they have the potential to become systemic. In 2008 and again in 2020 credit markets were frozen. Particularly in 2008, many companies ran into barriers that inhibited their conducting their ongoing daily business lines. There were plenty of offers but, as I so painfully remember, in many cases zero bids…. None…at any price. It was this credit distress that convinced the Fed to move. In part 1 we looked at the weekly chart of the option adjusted spread (OAS) of the broad ICE BofA Corporate Index and concluded that the there is no evidence of the kind of credit distress that would galvanize the Fed, and that, at least on this basis, that there was no compelling value (rich/cheap) argument to be made. What of high yield? Does high yield OAS suggest a meaningful deterioration in credit markets? Again, I plot a regression mean and one and two standard deviation bands above and below. Just as in the IG market, high yield OAS has widened, but only to its long term mean, and this following a lengthy period of being nearly a standard deviation rich. In short, while spreads have widened somewhat, there is no compelling rich/cheap argument and certainly nothing that would suggest to the Fed that credit conditions are meaningfully impaired. I frequently see commentaries that use price changes in the high yield ETF (HYG) and the investment grade ETF (LQD) as a measure of investor risk preference. Since the January high, LQD is down 26.15% versus 19.65% for high yield. At first glance it appears as if investors prefer the lower quality HYG. But the price changes do not account for the differences in fund duration. Put simply, LQD at 8.36 years duration has roughly twice the interest sensitivity of HYG at 4.06 years. In other words, a 100 bps change in rate, will change LQD 8.36% and HYG 4.06%. LQD in Ratio with HYG and Ten Year Futures in Ratio to Five Year Futures: I also see analysis that uses the ratio between LQD and HYG to ascertain risk preference. But the direction of the ratio is almost completely due to the difference in duration. You can see this by compare LQD/HYG to the ratio between ten year and five year note futures. LQD/HYG ratio is almost entirely correlated with changes between five and ten year treasuries. When rates are volatile and directional the total return of many rate products generally a reflection of rates than it is investor quality preference. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
by CMT_Association
7
A Minsky Moment is ComingThe economy has been going into the toilet for a while now. All the NBER coincident indicators are trending down to 0% growth. Some leading macro indicators have actually flashed negative. Housing volume is crushed, the treasury has started pricing in recessionary conditions while the credit market has been twiddling their thumbs expecting a soft landing (even bitcoin foolishly climbed to 25k on distorted hope, and some think that's going to happen again because of Elliot Waves and Fibonacci, the prophets of TradingView). But that is now changing, with the biggest drop still to come, and lessons will be taught all around. We will probably have mass layoffs in Q4, based on the condition of deteriorating employment. The non-farm payroll survey, which does not survey households, is still downtrending in spite of double or even triple counting people holding two or three jobs as two or three employed. Household survey is dropping. People are starting to work less hours, which means there is trouble ahead for employment and the soft landing narrative. We are still waiting for that turning point where the credit market and broad economy realizes a recession is unavoidable. And now, over the weekend, retail finally gets a headline it can work with: Bed Bath and Beyond CEO jumps to his death. I'm not going to short this index, its still too risky and I will keep my existing crypto shorts while rolling over everything else into USD and TLT; but I can see why one would short it. Things are rapidly coming to their crescendo, and the credit market will resume pricing in reality soon, if not on Tuesday. 2022: SPY woke up after labor day, wearing white, and chose violence. Happy trading, fart knockers.
AMEX:SPYShort
by coinhoIio
4
COMPOSITE INDEX Electric Vehicle Stocks TRENDING BEARISH In this daily chart, I made a composite index of electric vehicle stocks using an approximate formula weighed by stock prices but not market cap. ( ( $NIO + $LCID + $RIDE + $NKLA +$WKHS) x 50 ) + $TSLA This serves as an approximate normalization adjustment of the varying stock prices in the collection of stocks. I did this to later check to see if there is any effect of new legislation impacting federal tax credits for electric vehicle adoption as a catalyst for price action. So far YTD, the composite at large has fallen 18.5% varying from TSLA is down 6% and LCID as an example of others is down 36% The composite will be a quick and easy way to see if the composite and so the market cap of the underlying stocks inflects its downtrend responsive to the federal legislation catalyst.
NASDAQ:NKLA
by AwesomeAvani
3
IWM 184/179 Mar 4th Put SpreadTrade entered today based on my thinking that 1. This is our second green bar in a row, and I believe that either we have found a new range in the 190-200 range or we are headed back up. Which leads me to point number two 2. If we are in fact in a range then the 184 short strike is outside of that range and then some, providing a decent margin of error. 184 was also the 16 delta short strike at the time, and met the return metrics for the trade (10% return on margin required - AKA Max loss). The plan will remain with these trades to close at -200% or take profit at +50%. Fill on these was -0.57 on average after commissions. That is it, mechanical and S/R based. Sorry there isnt more secret sauce!
AMEX:IWMLong
by ThetaTrades
A Chart Demonstrating How FED Policy Causes VolatilityDuring a discussion with a contact, I pointed out that watching the FED is one of the easy ways to forecast volatility. Being specific here, FED policy on interest rates is a key predictor of market volatility. To summarise, Federal Reserve interest rates induce tightening at institutions. This in turn causes credit crunches out in the real markets as institutions begin to tighten standards. When this feeds through into the consumer level, this causes volatility n the real markets and hence we see peaks of the market-based components of credit conditions (I.e. the institutional banks and companies) coinciding very neatly with the VIX. There are many reasons for this. Firstly, tight credit conditions mean less margin is available. This should be self-explanatory. Secondly, it means that ultimately consumers are not able to consume on the level that they previously did and this of course hits institutions in their balance sheets. As a third-order consequence, it can often mean that it becomes difficult to roll debt and service debt and this can sometimes force the selling of assets to meet short-term cashflow requirements. A lot of the time, this means selling bonds and equities. We can see that when the FED begins tightening, the market-based institutions begin tightening a few months to a couple of years later. The FED's interest rates therefore clearly front-run interest rates and credit conditions out in the real world. And thus, because these credit conditions are correlated to the VIX, the FED's activity is a clear predictor of big spikes in the VIX (As well as potential downside in the vix).
FRED:DRTSCILM
by RogueEconomics
Azimut (AZM.mi) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the Italian company Azimut Holding (AZM.mi) at daily chart. Azimut Holding is an Italian asset management company, based in Milan, Italy, with branches in Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Egypt, Ireland, Luxembourg, Mexico, Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and the United States. Traded on the Borsa Italiana, the company is specialized in investment management aimed at private and institutional clients. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 26/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 44 days towards 21.500 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 26.73 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Italian asset manager Azimut Holding said its U.S. subsidiary had struck a deal to buy a minority stake in U.S. private credit investment manager Pathlight Capital. Under the deal, Azimut Alternative Capital Partners (ACCP) will buy a stake of around 20% in Pathlight and contribute “permanent capital to the business going forward”, the companies said in a joint statement, adding there would be no changes to Pathlight’s strategy or management as a result of the agreement. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
MIL:AZMShort
by legacyFXofficial
Potential Opportunity - Patience PaysPreviously I wrote a brief note explaining caution for the US Banking industry as illustrated by XLF. This is due to: - market risk of a broader market pullback - as currently being experienced - impact from Covid-19 variants like Delta etc., - the cumulation of record high bank reserves (cash) which serve to stress Bank Capital and Capital adequacy ratios. These reserves have been building up due to the FED's policy of buying Bonds in the market. Once sold, the vendor banks cash at a Bank which severs to increase the Bank's liabilities. The FED has tried to mitigate this effect by using reverse repos - which is ridiculous - it should stop the buying / QE ie the naughty word - Taper!!! :) The opportunity to be long includes: - market risk subsides as debt ceiling is mitigated. - infrastructure bill goes through which is GDP positive. - further recovering of the US and European economies noting n increased travel facilitated by increased vaccination rates. - Bank capital being strong as it is, has seen some Banks start to sell assets which have a lower capital rating (for the purposes of capital measurement) and will eventually open the door to strong lending programmes noting the prior comment. - still good fiscal support - so economy, GDP and the broader market is growing. In other words a decent credit cycle may ensue which will be very positive for Banks and of course XLF. However - Patience Pays!!! Buying in smalls around key support areas and build a position - no 'binary' trading.
AMEX:XLF
by Adam-Cox
Simple Credit Indicator to Watch Out for Equity InvestorThere is a classic saying that credit markets tend to lead equity markets. The rationale is that credit investors are solely more concerned about downside risk (as they worry whether coupons will be paid and whether they will get their principal back at maturity) and measure risks and determine spreads - over the risk free/benchmark rate - by factoring in the probability of default into the spreads amongst other factors. While equity investors, given their ability to participate on the upside as opposed to debt/credit investor, tend to be more forward looking with an optimistic bias (glass half full attitude). Hence, credit tends to turn first when risk is slowly bubbling in the cauldron. That's what I've been told anyway. Without further ado, if you refer to the chart published, you will be able to see how credit has played out during the past few crisis. Data used are S&P500 and ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (inverted)
TVC:SPX
by RinjaniCapital
2
Macro - Reading The CurveForecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment. - US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary: - USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil: - US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline: - Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation. - CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary: - China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative. - No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets. - M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing: - Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary. - Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming! GLHF - DPT
TVC:US05Y
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
ES 4450 Late Chasers will be lit up: 4250 - 4150As Volumes begin to dry up and Seasonality begins to take hold as Euphoria morphs quietly into "Fear" the ES will begin a large retracement. Globex has been another Low Volume affair with the Retail Chasers continuing to BTD with diminished conviction. The chart remains in a Bull Trend, with extreme divergences. We are preparing for a very nasty 10% correction, followed by another 9% @ minimum. Ideally, and it is far too early to know - 3600/3800 Range should reduce the appetite for the ES as Financials continue to fall apart. Cohesion in Banking has been extraordinary. I have been an Chemical/Chase/JPM Customer since 1991. This morning I received a notification from CHASE in which they informed me I had not used my CHASE Credit Card in over 9 months - Citing a lack of activity against a Large Revolving Line of Credit. American Express, Member since 1991 - has dropped my credit score internally from 835 to 717. The reason - an undisclosed Line of Credit, which I do not have. My LOCs have not been reduced, although they appear to be creating causation. Interesting times indeed for Money Center Banks.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
1