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Bullish Iron Condor with 64% PoP for 41% profit at eventMax profit: $291 Probability of Profit: 64% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 41% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $709 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 53 (high) Expiry: 43 days Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 190 Put Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 200 Put Sell 1 SQ Jun18' 290 Call Buy 1 SQ Jun18' 300 Call Bullish Iron Condor for 2.91cr with +4.82 delta Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing outside the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 1.02db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:SQLong
by TanukiTrade
€3000 by 21.05.21 ?What an amazing week it has been for ETH and the Ethereum Community, there has been some serious shockwaves with the announcement of adoption by major banks to use the ETH2 protocol as a transport layer between private blockchains and CBDC's, the European Investment Bank just announced they are using Ethereum smart contracts to issue €100m bonds in conjunction with JP Morgan, Santander, Credit Agricole while the protocol is evolving using technology like Hyperledger Besu and Consensys Quarum to connect the banks to the blockchain. This new has of course created lots of retail action some incoming from BTC, FOMO is starting to kick in, can ETH get to €3000 by 21.05.21 or maybe sooner?
Long
by TobesVibration
2
Increased Bullish Pressure on EU and the PoundUS Consumer credit has fallen significantly, representing telltale signs that debt-intensive purchases have been falling signalling within North America that growth is beginning to show serious signs of depressed growth, of those similar to the '08 crisis. Because the US Yearly GDP is fueled by roughly 68% consumer-based debt/spending, this may be the beginning of a significant deterioration of the dollar as we head into wave 2 of COVID globally. This coupled with a looming presidential election does not bode well for the US dollar. We are beginning to witness the significant effects in the inherent damages of a global pandemic on the 'mighty-US' economy. This is a very short-term forecast, I believe DXY will rally into the Asian-Session while selling off into Late-London and Early-New York. Investors will turn to 'neutral-risk-on' currencies such as EURUSD, GBPUSD as New York opens tomorrow. However, it is to note that significant news weighs on the pound as Brexit talks falter. Further analysis will be provided on the majors before NY open tomorrow. In the long-term, I believe we will continue to witness this deterioration until the market fully digests the chosen presidential candidate and a vaccine is in the distribution phase within the USA. (4-6 month forecast) As always, use proper risk management practices, matching your risk tolerance. This is solely an opinion, not financial advice. Trade safe.
Long
by Granborough-Capital
Auto industry likely to inflect downward from hereManufacturing has been a red-hot sector lately, and the CARZ auto ETF has been a beneficiary of that boom. The latest manufacturing data out today show continued outperformance by this sector, which I suppose is why CARZ is up today: Empire State index: 17 Price of imported industrial supplies: +3.6% Manufacturing output: +1% When you drill into the data, however, it doesn't look as good for automakers. While overall manufacturing output is up 1%, output for auto manufacturers was down 3.7% in August. Another relevant data point from the August CPI report is that the price of used cars rose 5.4% in August. So it looks like the growing number of permanently unemployed workers, now deprived of stimulus checks and unemployment benefits, are starting to tighten their belts and reduce large expenditures. August credit card spend deteriorated in August, -13% YoY vs -12.3% the previous month. Consumer lending has tightened up as well, with banks opting to buy bonds rather than make loans.
NASDAQ:CARZShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
HYG Bearish RSI Divergence 9/6/2020HYG or junk bonds at the daily view. This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 9 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility , trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength. It seems that the credit markets had a bearish RSI divergence since August. It was too hard to see with candles. However, putting it as a line shows where the closing prices and closing RSI levels were. It seems that bearish RSI divergence finally played out in September's correction. Had I saw this earlier, I would've scaled in more VIX longs. Not sure how far this will go. However, HYG is at a critical level where it needs to maintain the trend supports or it's going to fall like a rock. If traders and the Fed are the sword (to prop the markets up), the credit markets are the shield that protects the major indices from selling off even more. If corporate credit breaks their vital supports, we might get more than just a small correction within the ES, NQ, and RTY.
AMEX:HYG
by Itsallsotiresome
Splitit ready yet to take over the IPO high? 2+The high that was created by the hype during its IPO is ready to get taken over by the hype that's created from a cashless society. TA, - MACD daily golden cross - MACD volume increasing - Demand volume increasing - Broke out of bullish pennant - Bullish Moving averages Hoping for some consolidation at this level due to 2 massive supply tails at 1.915. Watch for the break of 1.915 and 2.00 FA, - BNPL hype - Pent up demand over the weekend. No, really that's a thing now. People hate weekends cause the casino is only open from Monday-Friday. - Visa, Mastercard, Stripe partnerships - Founder Brad Paterson :Former VP marketing at Intuit, Director for emerging products ANZ for Visa, Head of new ventures for Paypal - 460% revenue growth - MSV 260% (Creating win-win situations for merchants and SPT) - Gives the customer more options with 3,6,12,24 months unlike other BNPL's. - Allows the use of existing credit without interest rates. Less credit risk and easier to integrate with Visa/Mastercard ?
SLong
by ashainp
2
Capital One -- Not in My WalletAlthough Capital One is involved with more than consumer credit cards, it doesn't feel like a great place to be with record unemployment -- while unpopular, I am taking the gamble that the longer term trend is closer to '08 style credit crisis. The indicators line up, as well as the exact price levels. If this sells off (starting with poor earnings next week?) and was to do an exact length match to the bottom as in '08, it would be 17 monthly candles, or in this case roughly December 2021. COF broke through its 200 day moving average, and I don't see the earnings impressing.
NYSE:COFShort
by burn_infinite
1
American Express suggests continuation of downtrendThanks for viewing, I'll give my technical and fundamental view briefly; Technical; - After the sharp drop from February highs AMEX has under-performed the market - dipping ~51%, - This compares to an over 80% drop in 2009, - The dip was followed by the formation of a rising wedge, which normally indicates continuation of the trend preceding the pattern (which is down), - Elliot Wave seems to also suggest continuation - with wave (5) down possible, - The 55 EMA showing resistance, - I see potential support below at $60, $57, and the $50 - but if the stock equals its 2008-9 drop in % terms we are looking at sub-$25. Fundamental; - Credit Card (and charge card) Companies have a licence to print money, all payments made on credit expand the monetary supply (inflationary) - until debt is extinguished (deflationary). Over the past 10 years, they have been able to borrow at negative real rates and pocket the spread. But when the economy turns down, these Companies are hit hard by defaults, - Even in good times, retailers balk at being charged 6% per charge card transaction, - What are air miles gained on transactions worth these days when no-one is flying?, - From the last recession, I read one consumer credit exec talking about the increase in defaults in terms of MULTIPLES of the rise in unemployment www.forbes.com). They didn't say what multiple, but If the multiple is just 1, then the default rate (which would impact shadow banking, consumer credit, and unsecured lenders first and worst) could jump to 20-25% of all outstanding debt balances (pre-crisis unemployment below 4% and estimated to exceed 30% by Goldman Sachs). Even a 1.5 multiple would yield 35% default rates. Who knows how things will shake out, - It will all depend on the underwriting standards over the past few years, if newly signed-up customers are among the most credit-worthy, then things won't be so bad (data suggests that default rates even among CC customers with FICO scores above 740 have tripled recently www.forbes.com). If, when times were good cards were sent to anyone with a pulse then things won't be as great, - The Fed is buying distressed ABS and MBS securities, apparently without regard for the creditworthiness of the underlying security, it is feasible that all this credit card debt packaged up and sold as an asset backed security has/will be been sold to the Fed at 100 cents on the dollar as it started to show signs of rising defaults in the underlying assets. This is a positive factors for the Company - I have doubts if it is positive for the economy down the line, - CC Companies are offering repayment holidays - possibly in part to defer incurring defaults - this will of course impact on profitability. - It all depends how you see this crisis - as being better or worse than 2008-9. My view is that this is many times worse, but that is just me. There are many reasons to expect higher defaults as compared to 2008-9 in an economy that has stopped on a dime, - Today's dividend yield of 1.79% seems insufficient to compensate investors for the higher risk associated with holding equities - considering the stock is down over 30% from Feb highs. This is my view in general as well, a lot of stocks are "growth" stocks, which do not pay (in my view) a high enough risk-adjusted dividend to be worth owning. This is all gravy when the stock is rising, but when the dividend is below inflation AND the stock is losing value, there is less incentive for an investor to hold firm. If you combine this with a tendency of this stock to significantly underperform the market in recessions then you understand the basis for my bearish view. So, overall, this stock rides high when times are good and has a history of being impacted more than the average. I don't see why that wouldn't still apply. Cheers, and protect those funds
NYSE:AXPShort
by flyinkiwi10
2
Tin Foil Hat Time BabyWhats up Traders - If you're waking up today and starting to get worried about the near term United States Economy .... welcome to the party. Oil Prices are in Shambles and we're heading into a recession which will command significantly reduced Oil Demand Gold is falling from the sky (no not literally) The FED has lowered interest rates to zero The FED has recently fired hundreds and hundreds of Billions at the Economy to keep it liquid - and more will be needed Equities have fallen 30% Monetary Policy across the globe is failing (DYOR) What I think We should Reasonably Expect: Unemployment to increase in the ensuing months. Inflation was beginning to show itself naturally. Reduced Rates (post / virus panic) will only exacerbate this. A quick and healthy Economic Recession as (likely) our best outcome. People will begin to default on debt. Extent to be determined. Students will begin to default on student debt at increased rates. Universities that have popped up across the country will begin to bankrupt as students run screaming away from the overpriced education system. Corporations will begin to default on debt as we enter recession If you dont think massive increases in Personal and Corporate Debt (relative to GDP) was a cause for the Roaring 10's .... yes the Roaring 10's .. not to be confused with the Roaring 20's bull market....Do you at least agree that it was a cause for the 1920's? The Preferred Platitude, often for me, ' History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but it often rhymes' - Twain I fear and plan for the worst...which the picture Im painting certainly is... I'm not predicting a depression, or WW3. . . . Im just saying, the ground on which we stand is familiar, it is shaky . . .. and we must proceed with extreme caution. The 1930's gave birth to Extremist / Nationalist Politics. Do you think that may be a condition of our 2020's? Are we already seeing that with Donald Trump, the Death of the 'Establishment' and the rise in popularity of candidates like Bernie Sanders? Do Millennials Trust in a 'Free' Market that has capsized 3 x in 20 years? If they do, how quickly and readily does that happen? -Nixxx Sources: houseofdebt.org www.quora.com seekingalpha.com
DJ:DJI
by WillNixTrading
4