Credit
Aug 9 45 Short Straddle Weibo FOR WHOPPING 5.50 CREDITWith a moderate IVR of 32.3, it makes sense to enter into a short strangle, where we are writing both the 45 calls and puts with the August 9th expiry. This trade does have unlimited risk, but does earn a profit of 550 per contract when the underlying security, Weibo, a Chinese Internet Technology firm, stays exactly at the k of 45. Because of the priced-in volatility, it is possible to execute this trade for a whopping credit of 5.50 per contract, which allows there to be a large range of values the security can take for which the trade can be profitable.
This trade is driven by the ability to get such a wide profit margin, and is supported by the channel in which the security has traded since May 22nd. Indicators further the neutral but slightly bullish notion, and the short strangle is likely to be profitable. Seeing that the RSI and CCI both indicate it is slightly overbought and the ADX indicates growing slight bullish momentum, we choose to execute this at the 45 instead of the 40 (there are no strikes for the aug 9th expiry actively traded in between, and closer-to-the-money).
Also, by using the August 9th expiry, we are able to get out of the position before the earnings announcement, which could move the stock dramatically. Going out another week would've only given us .18 more credit, which is not needed. With Weibo being Chinese, there is obviously exposure to trade war tensions, but following the G20 summit, things seem to have stabilized. With an $11-wide area in which profit can be attained, this trade makes a lot of sense, even considering the possible changes to and budding instability in the macro environment.
Citigroup Short July Iron Condor w/ sideways channelCitibank has been trading within a horizontal range and sideways channel between 65.50 and 69 for the past fourteen trading days. Because of this, we are shorting the iron condor by writing the 69 calls and 65.5 puts for the initial strangle, and going half a dollar out on each side to acquire the protection (longing the 69.5 calls and 65 puts), thus turning the strangle into an iron condor. Being slightly below the money, it is somewhat bearish but created such that it aligns with the historical channel. By using the July 5th options, which are eight trading days away, we expect Citi to stay within the channel. This trade is done for a max profit of 30 and a max loss of 20 because the credit is .30/contract. This gives us break-evens of 65.2 and 69.3, and a better risk reward ratio (30/20) is received when the trade is done with calls instead of puts (29/21). This maximizes profit potential.
QUDIAN INC - NYSE: $QD Buyers Becoming More Aggressive?After recapturing its 200 DMA back in April, QUDIAN INC - NYSE:QD continues to grind its way into higher ground in a slow methodical manner as we can observe from the Daily chart above. While further work is required, we're taking note that Buyers may becoming more aggressive as the stock continues to make higher lows and mild higher highs.
Furthermore, QD presently finds itself trading above all of its important moving averages 20/50/200 DMA's and remains in fine technical shape.
Additionally, when one extends out on both the Weekly and Monthly time-frames, we can also see that QD continues to display favorable technical characteristics. Thus, we have a stock trading in a favorable light across multiple time-frames, which is indicative of a favorable trend, which remains higher.
Moving forward, both investors/traders may want to continue to monitor the action closely and in particular, should QD be capable of clearing the $8.51 hurdle at any time in the days/weeks ahead, such development, should it occur, would likely signal/trigger its next meaningful advance with and objective in the $10 -$12 zone.
Bearish credit call spread 85/87 June 28 for 1.16 creditTGT has clearly shown the first five parts of an elliot wave pattern, which indicate a peak and an ensued downtrend. This leads to a price target of $80 by June 27th. Max profit of $114/contract is reached at 84.72 and the breakeven is at 86.16. The maximum loss is $86/contract. This spread is 20 deltas negative, indicating our bearish sentiment. Technically, the bearish sentiment is further supported by a decreasing and negative MACD, a DMI- crossover of the DMI+, and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse indicator that switched to be over the candles.
Credit Spread 50/52.5CGC credit spread 5x $120 premium, exp May 31
Looks like bearish divergence on RSI daily and weekly.
Trend is weakening as no new participants are really coming in after recent moves.
Journal entry and not advice.
Chart of the Day: $HYG under pressure$85.50 is the key neckline support for $HYG as it bounces off the top boundary of wedge pattern. The neckline can be seen with multiple previous SSR levels. The downward bias is reinforced by the current SSR level for which price action is firmly pinned under.
With an earnings recession in progress and oil demand in question, it is inevitable to see some stress emerging in the junk bond segment which has a fairly high representation of US shale players.
"A" Short Idea I bought a call credit spread against "A" 72.5/77.5 Credit spread exp June 21st Fill Price 2.49
Earnings are tomorrow but due to the uncertainty in the air with the whole tariff move courtesy of trump everything that recently looked good will look less good because everyone will be skiddish. Let's see how it pans out.
Max loss $2.51 + commission
This is a journal entry and not trading advice.
NFLX Call Credit spread "Shorting"Shorting Netflix due to the uncertainty in the market due to SPY sell off. Netflix is overall a great company however it is very closely effected by the SPY much like last october a sell off lead Netflix down to the bottom and consequently is also uplifted the stock due to its latent rise. Of course earnings also were a catalyst.
My Move is more near-term which makes it all that much risky.
345/350 Call Credit Spread Fill price $2.56 + commission Max loss 2.44 EXP May 31st
Depending on SPY movements I may manage my position and take a gain for $1.25 if the position allows due to near-term risk.
This is a journal entry and not trading advice.
Bitcoin: a gauge for asian risk toleranceSpread between Chinese and JGB's appears follow Bitcoin (usd) pretty well. As expected: bitcoin is the exact opposite of a portfolio hedge, and just a call option (like Tom Lee has made the case for) for growth. Interestingly enough, falling rates appear to stimulate selling and rising rates entice buying.
ASX/APT neutral but looking for a shortAPT now range bound with bearish divergence on the RSI and lower highs target 14.95 failure of lower range support will look for longer term shorts.
Yield spreads say more selling aheadDuring several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during several previous liquidity crisis the cost of borrowing in corporate credit may need to rise another 50 basis points before this is over.
UNG - Bullish-neutral Iron CondorThe major activity in natural gas, especially over the past 2 weeks presented an opportunity to make a bullish-neutral bet.
31/32/42/43 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.73 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
LVS - Bearish-neutral Iron CondorStock has sold off since May/June, with no recovery since last earnings report. Betting on price to stay within this range.
35/40/62.5/67.5 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.64 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
Ripio Credit Network $RCN, An Ideal After Party Entry Idea!Well it was a nice pump that honestly i didn't catch it up. 109% is amazing number in bear market tho. Really. Despite regretting what happened, let's take a look towards the future forecast and hope that the gains be with us this time on RCN.
I'm shocked that this is the first time that I have research on RCN, because it has many exchanges listing them actually. Name a few: Binance, Bittrex, Upbit, OKEx, Huobi, and few others. I be like, damn, I should read a lot more towards certain project and allocate more time in researching potential project like this one.
Well, let's talk about fundamental. RCN has 1 billion total supply and half of them are on the circulating. Which with only $15 millions marketcap RCN ranked as #279 on coinmarketcap at the current moment. RCN's project topic is on financial matter, which the RCN protocol connects lenders and borrowers all over the world in any currency through RCN tokens.
I have checking on their GitHub and i know they lack on participants here, but then i checked the roadmap. Something is catching my attention: ERC939? What?
Hmm this is interesting, are they trying to leave Ethereum network? Well, it's not a surprise lately. I've read and found lots of tokens moving out from ERC-20 protocol standart because of a certain problem. Which Nowadays, some already successfully developing and swap to their own network, for example TRX and AION.
I think it will be great for them as long as they can keep the project alive, because, you know, it need a lot of hardwork to do so.
Judging from the technical side to get the short term idea of this chart that i see after party, the price action need to chill down a bit along with the RSI. It's quite healthy at the moment. As I spot on 409 sats can be juicy entry based on few candles back. Right now it's @ 470 sats.
The second entry will at range 288 - 254 sats, which I think this unlikely to happen as long as BTC movement above $6200. Well, let's see. The short term target are 602 sats and if we could gain the mass back, we'll be lucky enough to get back to 817 sats at this bear market.
*************************************************************************
If all of these ideas I posted helps you, give them thumbs up, shares, comments and follow me. If you have a suggestion, just fill in the comment sections or message me. Looking forward to hear from you all. Thanks a lot!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
www.tradingview.com Rules:
#1 Always obey tradingview.com house rules
#2 Always read the description
#3 Don't spam on the comment section
#4 If you wanted to request my opinions about a coin/token just give 10 likes on my published charts and I will do it the day or two after
#5 My opinions are not financial advice, follow it at your own will and your own risk
#6 Together, let's build a better community on this platform
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$XLF bullish credit spreadNew bullish credit spread on XLF (financials) for OCT 12! Not this Friday. Solid movement this morning in the market and financials is starting to show strength. Decided to take this move out two weeks to allow for the bottom to confirm and some bullish movement to occur.
Entry 27.79
Max profit 28.50
Break even 28.14
0.38:1 risk/reward
$XLB bullish credit spread!New bullish credit spread on XLB (materials). After two weeks of bearish movement on XLB, we saw a close above $57.92 support and a bullish open this morning. Looking for bullish to neutral movement this week.
Entry 58.54
Max profit 59.00
Break even 58.72
0.78:1 risk/reward
Adjusted the XLB bullish credit spread to add a bullish credit spread one strike higher.
Max profit 59.5
Break even 59.12
0.31:1 risk/reward
$XLK bullish credit spread for this #FridayHigh risk bullish credit spread on XLK . Solid gap down in tech this morning, but not showing signs of continuation bearish. This is one of the set-it and forget-it spreads as we will let it go all the way till exp.
Entry 74.33
Break even 74.72
Max profit 75
0.78:1 risk/reward
More info at wingtrades.com