OXY bull put spread AGAINOXY is at the 100 sma on M if you turn on the dividends. IT is RIGHT on top of the 200 sma on the weekly non adjusted dividends. $48 is a NEW low and getting 12% return on risk on a down day is nice...
I will allow this stock to go below $47 before I panic. I would expect a retest anyway, so I'll hold this spread until expiration or until I can close it for .03+ like the last one...
Creditspread
AMD - OTM Put Credit SpreadThis is a neutral-bullish out of the money option PUT CREDIT spread trading strategy for AMD. To me, this feels just about right for AMD because I'm very slightly bullish and neutral on the stock right now. This credit spread allows for a full profit in 14 days time as long as the stock does not go down to $152.50.
In this video I go over how to set up a credit spread and how to calculate the profit/loss and the probabilities of it working out.
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Lower High on NVDA, is the "top" in place...temporarily?Went short @ market open this morning. I feel that the top might be in on NVDA and the IV is worth trying a Call Credit spread. The ticker did not make a new high, and will most likely start a consolidation phase before the next leg higher ( or lower).
I went with the 525/530 spread OCT 20 banking $1.50 in credit. Looking to close between 20-50% profit with a max loss of 50%. The trade is around a 70 delta.
Generating Income from NVDA ConsolidationDescription
NVDA has seen consistent gains following the upside break of its descending intermediate trendline on 17JAN. Now it seems to have settled into a consolidation pattern (Ascending Triangle) following the event-related runaway gap up through an ATH on 25May. Ascending triangles represent a healthy demand for a stock with a planned distribution at a particular price, which appears to be 480, and now we are now seeing the second rejection of the upper boundary of the pattern @482.
At the same time, DIA, SPY and IXIC have all seen retests and rejections of their 50D EMAs today. In general, I expect the continued fall in the indexes to keep NVDA in consolidation, despite consistent earnings outperformance.
Technical Indicators to signal the entry:
Ascending Wedge upper boundary second rejection.
Technical Risk Factors:
MACD 12 over 26 bullish cross
The expected price is <482 until breakout of the pattern.
I will be using short dated call credit spreads to:
Limit upside risk while maintaining a neutral position
take advantage of skewed earnings IV
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL: 482 / or a minor that does not reach the ascending trendline at the bottom of the pattern
PT: <482
TP: @ expirations
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
8/25 487.5C
SELL
8/25 482.5C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
DXY | JPY | CREDIT EVENT | DECRYPTERS Hi People Welcome to Team " DECRYPTERS"
SO we Have 3 Main events this Week Lets Get A DEEP DIVE IN TO THEM
1- FED :- FED RATE HIKES ( PRICED IN ) + PRESS CONFERENCE ( HAWKISH )
AS we predicted Last time what Ever Happen Rate hikes will be increased we still stand by our words . Lets go further Either we are Getting 50 BPS This time or We are Getting 25 BPS next time
WHY Is That So ... ??
The Attached Charts shows the overall level of financial conditions in an economy The conditions are on Same levels When FED was ABOUT to hike Rates Meaning .
Further more —Dot plots , Fed curves ,GSUSCFI Index and Bloom Berg Index & Fall in Credit spread "ALL" Indicating ease in financial system Meaning this Data provide Evidence that FED Can increase More Interest Rates As Credit spread also falling to positive signal for economy
— Rise In commodity Prices Like (RBAB Gasoline) Indicates more higher Prices in Energy sectors.
— Lastly Good inflation trading above 20 years average & CPI Also printing higher on Y/Y Basis.
2- EURO RATE HIKES :-
THIS comes With same Expectations Rate hikes + Hawkish Stance with & Lagarde speech.
Lets Discuss JPY NEWS ON FRIDAY
3- BOJ REPORT :-
A surprise can be Expected From Other Side Like
They can Increase the range of "10 -years JGB" 50 BPS TO 75 /100 BPS
( BOND BUYING BACK PROGRAM) This will Cause bonds Prices to Rise / Yields to Fall &
"JPY TO GET WEAKEN"
—Other yield can React Negatively To IT ( LIKE US -10 YEAR)
bear call spread on BAThis will mark my 3rd spread in a row on BA.
The 200 sma on a weekly, 100 sma on a monthly are acting as resistance.
+5 up days in a row. Expecting some light selling maybe? Or sideways action.
If we do drop - I'll get into a bull put spread at some point! Hoping for an iron condor! :-)
SHY/HYG - Daily, Inverted Candles, SPX overlay - Credit spread(4/10/2023) Monday - I wanted to publish this chart so we can follow the effect the credit spread had on the S&P 500 (SPX). As you can see the inverted candles correlate well with the SPX. Note the candles are inverted and the SPX is not, just to show better correlation. At the time of publishing there has been a significant move in credit that supports underlying conditions for the S&P 500. This is opposite what the FOMC is trying to accomplish as it causes more inflation.
With CPI coming out this week, Bank earnings start Thursday, and then the FOMC goes into blackout before the next Employment situation report for April. A lot can change. Being the last situation report was on Friday (US Markets closed observing Good Friday and Easter), Im not sure that report has been digested yet either.
On Mondays I post a market video and will include this link among the links to the yield curve inversions, and the IEF/LQD (Financial Conditions), unfolds. We can watch the bar replays. I added links to these charts below also.
4/10/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Macro Deep DiveIn this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis.
Please Like and Subscribe , or on Trading View, Follow and Boost!
See you Next Monday for the next Market analysis!
SPY Short 3/22-3/2y below 397!Always difficult to discern the FOMC announcements, but... I see the potential for a short Wed-Thursday this week below 397 on SPY.
Sold 2 call credit spreads at 397/400 & 397.5/400 respectfully at the end of day Tuesday for expiration 3/24. Will consider rolling this if price moves much high pre-Market/opening minutes Wed 3/22. Will also consider buying a straddle on SPY pre FOMC (maybe?)
QQQ Short 3/16: Following a moderate bullish day on WedQQQ moving down towards 296 on Thursday 3/16. Difficult to discern the long-term trend.
Following a nice concentration into the upper ends of the 15-min bollinger band from yesterday, and a pre-market downside of about -.33%, seeking another .33-.5% downside movement in the first 1-3 hours of the day on 3/16.
Selling 2 Call Cred Spreads at open for 298/300. Take profit at 30-40%; roll or close at -25%
SPY Friday 3/10/23: Uncertainty?I like to assess pre-market conditions for assessing potential volume and price gap filling for the day. With a series of conflicting financial and stock market news, including this morning national payroll updates, I would be expecting a brief respite in price action for SPY up towards 392.5-393.5, but I'll note I'm uncertain SPY will push up its recent gap towards 394.5 today.
There is a notable bump in SP500 futures of 0.1-0.42%, but nothing significant to note. This is actually close to a 5-min resistance point from yesterday, which might suggest potential to short and continue with our push downwards.
Today's plan will be to sell call credit spread with 0DTE on SPY at open at 393/395; close or roll up/out if loss == 25%; take profit at 55-60%. This would allow for a .1-.25% SPY gain, with micro-room for flexibility. I've set a bear-ish bias since we're below the 100-day moving average on SPY.
Good luck, set a stop loss, and breathe.
PINS Short 3.10 to 4/14 following Fri 3.10 OpeningPINS continuing its descending micro-pattern following Earnings (see PEAD Project) towards a low range of 22.87-23.86 prior to its next Earnings period.
Selling Call Credit Spreads following the brief push-up pre-market on 3/10/23 at 24.5/26 (deltas == -0.57 / 0.42).
Consider closing or rolling up/out if loss == 25% OR price exceeds 26
Take profit at 55-65%.