DKNG Bull Put SpreadDKNG Bull Put Spread
22% ROI, 8 DTE
Higher timeframe ascending trendline
Overall trend is sideways, testing 4h demand and potentially moving up into 1h supply
Aggressive buyers seem to step in on the trendline
Price moving down into higher timeframe demand zone
Last hourly 3 legs down had a potential middle leg with body gap down, could be EW 3 of 3 center
Last rally was a weak top into Apr 6
The top at 61 was a retest of structure exactly at a flip level
Next supply is at 62 at the gap fill, so if I get a rally into it quickly I should buy back the spread
If the rally is slow and takes time, then I will likely expire into Apr 23
54 sold strike is bhind the Mar 8 liquidity search low
Creditspread
Tesla Bounces Off .5 FibAfter a solid 3 day run on Tesla, looks like we are seeing a healthy retracement and bounce off the .5 Fibonacci level.
To me it appears to be a good opportunity to enter in a bull put credit spreads for Friday or next week expiration starting at $690 level. It would get risky if it would break lower then $712 during tomorrows trading session or a close below that but I am pretty confident we will hold above $712 as we have been rejected on this level couple times over the last 2 months so it should be a good support level. I would exit the trade if it does go below that and take my loses as there would be further downside if $712ish support does not hold.
MPC call credit spreadMPC call credit spread
Sold 56, bought 56.50, 2 DTE, 19% ROI
Larger decline removed demand
Sideways in a channel, generally trending down, so with trend in a channel
Most recent decline penetrated half way into last strong demand
Not entirely ideal, because of the liquidity search spike up into 55.28 on the decline, but the spread is above 1 supply and into the next.
Price driving up hard past 1 sigma, into 2 sigma
Spread structured into a supply shelf
2 dte so very good ROI for 2 days if I can keep it
KRE call credit spread Apr 16 expiryKRE call credit spread - back logging entry, not at expiry yet
At likely channel high resistance
Driving in hard rally
The center line is well respected
Likely a -2 to +2 sigma move and then roll over
Danger is rally expansion after a consolidation so need short strike to be as high as possible
Aggressive sellers above in DBD supply zone
Short strike at 70 is at the distal edge of supply with a liquidity search rally spike just below it
Opened as 4 DTE, 19% ROI
Got the decline this morning and trade looks good for Fri expiration Apr 16
XLB Put credit spreadEntered 4/7/2021 15:33 at green arrow - back logging the trade, not at expiry yet
Higher timeframe trend is up
Price making weak tops and buyers defending the proximal demand zones
Price coming back into +1 sigma
At base of hourly demand
Potential buyers stepping in, enough to cause a time delay
77.50 sold strike is AT higher timeframe demand zone proximal edge
Also at hourly flip zone and hourly continuation RBR continuation pattern for defense
Put credit spread 19% ROI, 9 DTE
AMD Bull Put spreadHigher timeframe sideways caught between aggressive supply and demand
Last hourly in control is demand
Violated downward momentum line
Potential oscillation channel with good respect through middle and +-1 sigma
At hourly demand continuation pattern
Very aggressive selling
With flip zone high 77.81, bull origin gap defense zones
Put spread 19% ROI, 4 DTE
AAL Bull Put with TrendLast week rally ending gap removed aggressive supply
With higher timeframe trend Up
At ascending trendline
Not aggressive selling character, but no hourly supply removed yet either
Into a VPOC, first test
At hourly demand
At current flip zone high
Untested hourly demand defense
Able to get 19% ROI 11 DTE
92%-95% PoP SPY Credit Spread with 4% return (2 trade idea)Hello all, hope everything is well. This week I’m looking at the SPY and looking to grow capital invested by 3-5 percent per trade with 92% - 95% percent probability of profit.
-Current price is: $382.88
-VIX is at: 21.90
-Credit spread sell strike: $370 Exp 1/27 and $367 Exp 1/29
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA on the 4 -hour, daily, and weekly chart?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly chart?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 93% - 95% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: With just reaching all-time highs I expect to see a pullback early to mid-week. Looking at the 4-hour chart we see that the $374-$378 price zone has been a key zone for SPY in the previous week. I’d like to see the price come back down to that zone and look to sell a put credit spread with $10-$13 away from our sell strick or 92-95 percent probability of profit if held to the day of expiration.
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit Spread (5% gain on capital invested)I'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit SpreadI'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
Low Risk Weekly SPY Credit Spread I'm looking to enter $357 SPY spreads and holding till DOE on the 22nd. I'm aiming to collect 5-6 credits per-contract with a goal to grow capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-With the SPY trading at roughly $375, we would need a -4.8% move to the downside for the week for the price to come down into the range of our strick.
-Price is trading above the 50 and 200 day SMA
-$357 is below the 50 day SMA.
-Strike is in the zone on .382 fib retracement zone for 52 weeks high and low.
-In the zone of support on 4h chart.
-91%-93% of OTM if held to DOE.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
GOOGL Bull Put Spread 1500/1400 Oct 30th expiryHi folks, I would love your input on my analysis and rate my trade.
- Last week, I entered into a Bull Put Spread 1500/1400 Oct 30th expiry. I KNEW we're heading into bearish territory, but I listened to my heart instead of my head. Nevertheless, here is my reasoning
- 1500 is below the 50MA and the 100MA.
- By the time Oct 30th comes around, 1500 will also match up to the middle of the Bollinger band. This often acts as support/resistance
- 1500 is also below the 0.382 fibb, which is also holding quite well.
- 1500 is also below the lower trendline.
At this point, I have 2 options. I can either
- leave as is
- roll the short leg down to 1450
- at the same time, I can sell a put call spread at the 10 delta and turn this trade into an iron condor
My thoughts are that the name of the credit spread game is risk management. Max loss on credit spreads can wipe me out, so I need to manage this risk at this point. Rolling the short leg would wipe up 70-80% of the credits I initially took in, so it's definitely not cheap. However, I would rather take a small win than maintaining a high risk level.
What do you think?
SPX Bull Put Spread 3350/3200 Oct 30th expiryHi folks, I would love your input on my analysis and rate my trade.
- Last week, I entered into a Bull Put Spread 3350/3200 Nov 20th expiry. I KNEW we're heading into bearish territory, but I listened to my heart instead of my head. Nevertheless, here is my reasoning
- 3350 is below the 50MA, which has served as very good support in the past.
- By the time Nov 20th comes around, the 100MA would also be at the 3350 area.
- 3350 is also at the 0.382 fib retracement level
At this point, I have 2 options. I can either
- leave as is
- roll the short leg down to 3300
- at the same time, I can sell a put call spread at the 10 delta and turn this trade into an iron condor
My thoughts are that the name of the credit spread game is risk management. Max loss on credit spreads can wipe me out, so I need to manage this risk at this point. Rolling the short leg would wipe up 70-80% of the credits I initially took in, so it's definitely not cheap. However, I would rather take a small win than maintaining a high risk level.
What do you think?
GOOGLObservations
Although there big engulfing red candle today, the 50MA held.. barely. The body of the candle closed above the 50MA. Such strong bearish movement is likely going to continue tomorrow and it will likely test the 100MA.
There are some strong supports though. The candle closed above the trendline, in addition to the 50MA support.
The next support would be the 100MA and the "middle of the Bollinger band". They seem to be converging at the 1500 level.
The continued decline is likely consistent with the bearish momentum in the SPX & NDX
Proposed trade
I believe there's an opportunity for an iron condor here. I plan to set the short put leg between the 100 & 200 MA, while the short call leg can be set ~ the 1650 or 1700 level. This would be ~10 delta on each side.
NDX - Sell Credit Spread below 11,000The market can go either way next week, but likely down instead of up. It tested the resistance and failed. It's likely going to fall back and test the 50MA.
Although I wouldn't take a directional trade, I would sell a credit spread with DTW before Oct 30th, with the short let at 11,000 or below. By the time it expires, 11,000 would be below 50MA and 100 MA which are both very strong supports fort his index.
However, I urge you to close this trade prior to the elections lest something bad happens.
NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Selling options premium for $$$ : Bull put spread
In this environment looking for slow and steady wins the race type of higher probability 'income'.
1. looking for neutral to bullish action over the next 20 trading days
2. buy signal on 'TURTLE SOUP plus one' - recovery from new 20 day low, with reversal bullish.
3. Found 0.10 net credit premium on 17.51 European put option with 17.00 American put protection * 120 = $1080
4. Only needs to go sideways > 17.51 or higher which is -7% below current price = 66% of winning based on price
The highest volume node secondary ' POC" is higher at 18.80 area as good expected average price in recent 30 days.
5. So this is a fairly high probability play, with DELTA of sold leg about 0.25 so market expects only 25% chance of expiry below this strike = 75% chance of winning ( keeping premium paid)
6. Any adverse drop in price below, has a breakeven 'alert' at 17.40 for either cutting losses at breakeven or rolling down & out to next month.
7. Goldmann Sachs has a Neutral rating with price target of $20.00 over next 12 months.
8. Dividend due to go ex-dividend in November.
Bull Put spread on spike in volatility - The Anty strategy
I think with the slightly over-cooked sell-off into an area with high volume trading activity should be price
stabilize. This is a strong company with good projected income potential over the next few years. If I was forced to buy it via exercised then I could live with that.
In the meantime - I can pick up a credit at close to 'at-the money' and see what happens....it just has to expire in 3 weeks above 18.00 before I'd need to consider 'rolling down & out ' etc
The volatility spiked up about 7 % which means the options premiums will be slightly fatter,
and there is only 15 trading days left before expires for time-decay to work it away...
This is "the Anty" strategy - adopted a bit longer for options