XAUUSD @ Crispy Potato20/03/22
COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 = BEAR
DAYS OF FEB
WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE
PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BEAR
The week opened with two solid Bear candles, with little to no tails, indicating strength of Bear momentum. Wednesday candle is a small Bull pin bar, this day the volume was the largest for the week. Thursday the volume begins dropping of (still exceptionally high), it is a bull candle but the body is small. Friday produced a Bear candle. The volume has been steadily declining as it attempt to return to normal ranges. Draw a line across the lows of the recent long bull rally (prior to sharp spike, a trending support line existed but Tuesday candle dipped below that line. Given the dropping volume and the the decent Bear candle size compared with the Bull candles, it is probable the Bears will see out this week. There is a resistance line off around May/June of 2021, it is around 1906, it may hover at this price.
WEEKS OF MARCH
WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT = NUETRAL
PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BEAR
This week produced a large Bear candle, its size is approximately similar to the 2nd week ago. This pattern produced, of the last three weeks, near a high point, is often met with additional Bear candles. OBC cannot be considered, it is too volatile. The volume is steadily declining. It is probably the candle will be Bear of some sort. It may not be one to hold on to for the whole week, choosing the entry will be key to obtaining profits.
Cripsy
XAUSUD @Crispy Potato10/03/22
COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 2 MARCH 2022 = Probability 51/49 of being bull/bear
DAYS OF FEB
WEEK 1 OF MARCH FORECAST = NO FORECAST MADE
PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BEAR
The stock opened bull with the largest move on Tuesday. Most of the week's volume was here as suspected. This is why the week has a decent northward-facing tail. Wednesday returned the price to its trending bull range. Thursday and Friday returned the week to a calm state. Thursday and Friday's candles have south-facing tails, these are rejecting further retracements, I see a higher probability gold will slowly, with small bodies, with continue to bull rally.
The OBV is too volatile and cannot be used.
WEEKS OF MARCH
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT = NO ASSESSMENT MADE
PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = equalibrium
This candle is a hammer, it has a significant long tail, the buying volume is also significant it dwarfs all other volumes. This is due to the WAR in Russia. This week's tail broke $2076 high but closed below the previous high close of 2033. This indicates an oversold stock. It is probable the stock will rally later, the War will greatly drive this. For now, it is probable the stock will equalise this week with respect to the body but expect more tails. Keep in mind the longer term is bull, it broke the cup handle formation, this is a reliable pattern.
FORECAST MTH = BULL