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Oil move pending China's directionBrent Crude Oil price is expected to consolidate between 93 to 100, with the main catalyst being China's Covid Policy. There were on-and-off hopes of China's reopening. However, we are still very much on the fence given the continued strict Covid measures in China. On the other hand, China did announce an easing of the measures, reducing the quarantine time. Another positive news is that the NHC is planning to accelerate vaccinations, which is crucial before further easing on their zero COVID policy. We don't know how long that will take, or when it will be in effect. Buys on support above 93 and sells on resistance at 100, until we have a clear path on China's reopening. Overall, looking more for buys given the pretty much firm demand in oil. Keep an eye out for OPEC oil report on Monday, 14 Nov 2022.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by geneAnalytics
History Repeats Once More...?The markets are currently in flux. Trapped between what history shows and what the current macroeconomic environment suggests. Reading between the lines, and understanding what factors will ultimately shift prevailing sentiment will become increasingly difficult to decipher. Regardless, I will attempt to examine what led us here, where we are now, and what is to come. HISTORY...? Many economic theorists posit that the current macroeconomic environment indicates that we are currently in a market that seemingly aligns with behaviors observed in 1929, 2000, and 2008. Therefore, our current market may be operating in some grey area that holds qualities of a combination of these historic economic crises. Although many believe that we can use historical charts to predict the exact movement of the current market, I do not believe this to be true. Although there may be some truth to this belief, the mechanism behind the euphoric rise of our current economic conditions are relatively unprecedented. The scale and magnitude of stimulus injected into financial entities, consumers, and creditors through direct stimulus, loan originations, and low-interest rates have no historical equivalent. In theory, we have no accurate true historical equivalent to current market mechansisms . As individual investors at a retail level, the layman trader has no easy way of obtaining information that may offer insights into the true systemic risk of a financial system. The SEC EDGAR system does allow access to corporate financial statements, but these statements may not provide a full or clear picture during times of crisis www.sec.gov . Regardless of this, it is still what I use most often to analyze corporate balance sheets to determine current or impending threats to their debt, liquidity, and valuation. The unfortunate truth, however, is that we will most likely not know the severity or extent of any theoretical "rot" until it is already too late. So with this in mind, how does one navigate such a tumultuous economic landscape? As individuals, we often look for patterns and cues that are often repeated. This is what makes history such a useful tool in the field of economics. The flow of money, greed, and fear of loss are constants throughout history that boast an unwavering track record. These are innate to human behavior and rarely change with time. When we examine the flow of money (Who has it, how much of it, and what is it being used for), we can see that there is currently a glut of supply. Between 2020-2022 somewhere between $5-7 trillion dollars of stimulus flooded the markets . Therefore, it is clear that there is plenty of currency circulating. Once financial stimulus of any kind is injected into a system, it is then important to "follow the string" to see where it leads. After the initial stimulus injection, it became clear that the money led to banks, and can be seen in the FRED Economic Data chart fred.stlouisfed.org While this suggests a marked increase in consumer savings, it can also be misleading, as the stimulus checks were most commonly distributed directly into savings or checking accounts and immediately bolstered the rate. Predictably, the rate immediately fell as consumers cashed out the stimulus to spend. This cycle is then repeated with a spike during the second stimulus injection, and a subsequent fall immediately after. So then, the flow of money so far looks like this: US Treasury->Consumer banks->Consumer spending. Predictably, inflation immediately reared its head. Prices skyrocketed, as corporate metrics adjusted to this new prosperous system of "free cash". Student loan debt payments during this time were in deferment saving an additional ~$393/month (Average student loan monthly payment thecollegeinvestor.com) for consumers to spend on other necessities or purchases, and interest rates remained at near 0%. Although this "Epipen" to the heart of the US economy may have saved consumers from immediately defaulting on credit, the side effects of such an intervention have no reliable historical references to note. Now, as we approach the end of 2022, the global economy appears to finally be experiencing these inevitable side effects. The reservoir of liquidity provided to the US economy and global markets is constricting, and the well is running dry . Corporations have experienced the most ideal and prosperous economic scenario any Black-Scholes model could possibly iterate, and many CEOs are now likely grappling with the impossible question of, where do we go from here? . Global economies simply cannot afford another stimulus injection that matches the scale and volume seen in 2020, and with that comes the harrowing reality that the most prosperous period in generations is coming to an end. Future growth metrics will pale in comparison to those experienced during this time of euphoric intervention, and earnings can only inevitably diminish. Student loan repayments begin again at the beginning of 2023, sucking any last drop of excess capital consumers had left. This, I believe, may lead to a critical turning point where the reality of the end of prosperity is fully realized. Ultimately, if this thesis plays out, we may experience a period of rapid deflation where companies are forced to either lower prices or find other methods of keeping pace with plummeting consumer spending. Credit will constrict, Credit card defaults will skyrocket, and the US Treasury must suppress treasury yields via treasury buybacks, consumer incentives for holding US debt, or imposing significant taxes on real estate investing. All of this will happen exponentially quickly. Global events and crises will make it difficult for any officials to remain vigilant in any single aspect of the market to prevent a systematic collapse. This degradation in the division of attention among lawmakers in charge of keeping our systems functioning as intended will create the perfect medium by which any previously "undetected" economic instability can proliferate and reach critical mass. SUMMARY We are reaching a final "breaking point" in the US economy. The current system built to withstand financial turmoil has never been tested in an environment that has experienced such levels of financial stimulus paired with macroeconomic instability. This will result in a new "mutation" of financial instability that will prove to be significantly difficult to counteract. If a systematic collapse occurs when the government entities typically poised to intervene are experiencing significant turmoil themselves, they must find new ways of stemming the fallout. Although the mechanism by which the US Treasury funds itself creates a type of "perpetual loan" through its treasury issuances and yield payments, illiquidity in the treasury market may force emergency action to save itself. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And right now, history is about to become the greatest lyricist the world has ever seen.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ProjectIcarus
4
What I think about Stocks & CryptoHi mate, First of all thanks for joining in here today, let's share my views. You probably know my view on the crypto and stockmarket for months now, yet I have not updated it on tradingview, so let's share.. With the world in panic due to countless of different reasons, the future is not that bright in the short-term for the stock market. We're definitely in a crisis, if not many... with the biggest issue on earth being the fact that most of our population is retiring and there are literally not enough people to replace this working group. No robots cannot replace all of us either, you need more people to get the tech ready for that.. might be a bit to late now. (It's not 2019 anymore where working w/ materials, transport and unlimited free funding was great) The boomer generation is the largest, and since that big boost in population, we've been declining ever since. This will impact the world more than it ever did, and that all together with Covid, War, Debt, and so many more issues.. might result in some slower growth the upcoming decades. Yeah a lot of markets such as real estate, but also company sales growth rely on population growth etc.. sadly all data suggests that many countries will have less and less working people available these upcoming 10 - 20 years. Since all of this has been unfolding for a while now, my views on the Crypto markets and Stocks are the following: This is not the bottom yet, but a great opportunity for those that love to dollar cost average multiple cryptocurrencies and of course Berkshire or the S&P500 Index! Personally, I think that the US will come out very nicely from all of this, better than the rest of the world. (Let me know if you want my arguments for this) You can see 3 cycles here on BTC and this is where I expect price to go to, I don't care about when this happens all I care about when it happens because Stocks probably be very low at time as well. With both at great prices, this might be an interesting place to look for opportunities. Kind regards, MNieveld
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by newcapitalfx
3
Will Credit Suisse repeat the fate of Lehman Brothers?Information has appeared on the Internet that the Swiss bank Credit Suisse is highly unstable. Recall that Credit Suisse is the second largest Swiss financial conglomerate after UBS. This bank covers a large volume of the banking market around the world and if Credit Suisse has problems, the entire world economy will feel it. The bankruptcy of such a financial institution may also have a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, since when banks liquidate unprofitable leverage positions, they primarily cut over risky assets, to which the crypt belongs. A Twitter user under the nickname Alex Good analyzed in detail the future financial results and compared the current situation at Credit Suisse with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers: twitter.com Some conclusions: 1. CDS (credit default swaps) - a credit instrument that allows you to hedge the risk of bankruptcy, Credit Suisse bank has exceeded 250 points, which is higher than the maximum of 2009 (the previous financial crisis) 2. Bonds nevertheless show a yield of only 6.4%, which is not significant and does not indicate bankruptcy (yet). 3. CET1 capital adequacy is an indicator of comparing a bank's capital with its risk-weighted assets to determine its ability to withstand financial difficulties. Credit Suisse has 13.5% (against 10% of Swiss claims, 8% of international claims), at the height of the crisis of 2008-2009 - this indicator was often 5% for banks. 4. The bank has several sources of influence on future financial results: A) money management fees for rich clients B) losses of an investment bank that lost substantially during the bankruptcy of Bill Hwang from Archegos C) penalties for losses from point B D) unprofitable fund "All Funds" 5. The fall in the price of Credit Suisse shares reflects the forecast of the financial result (-70% to profit) of the bank 6. The bank profits from the increase in rates in the markets, focused on large Chinese clients, after finishing work with the Russian market 7. Asian clients, despite falling markets, make 3 times more transactions than American clients. 8. Several transactions related to the issue of bonds can bring a significant loss to the bank, including a loss from investments in the European leverage index of loans, which generates up to $245M of loss. 9. Also on the horizon is the problem of losing $600M from holding the debt of Citrix. 10. The litigation concerns the corporate culture of Credit Suisse bank, an ex-employee managed to bring a loss of $1.27B to one of the clients and successfully hid it. And here the question arises - is Credit Suisse and the entire market in danger of repeating the history of Lehman and have we lost sight of the new black swan? An incident of this scale can bring a financial tsunami to the most risky markets of technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, and the current level of BTC $19K can become the level of $6K BTC in 2018 (it is worth recalling that at the beginning of 2018, bitcoin dropped to $6K, and when the whole Twitter thought that here it is super-large and from here only up - BTC abruptly went to the $3K area (just at the peak of the quantitative tightening program from the Fed). Another news came out today: Credit Suisse $CS has stepped up efforts in recent days to sell or reduce stakes in key companies as part of a planned restructuring to remake the bank – WSJ. By the way, the name of the chairman of the Board of directors of Credit Suisse - Axel P. Lehmann - is nothing but a smile of fate. What do you think about the future of the global economy? Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
by Lingrid
7
The Rise of the Dollar Ends with a CrisisHistorical rallies regarding the US dollar show an unpreceded rise for high-risk assets, including stocks, which in the past had led to some sort of financial/economic crisis. For sure, always is very difficult to make an accurate forecast in price and in time, but we must not forget the explosion of the tech bubble in the 2000s, the ‘’Great Recession’’ in 2008, as well as the sovereign debt in 2012 since the one factor that has a high correlation to those declines, was the strengthening of U.S Dollar at least by 19% each time. Just to remind you that the benchmark S&P500 has already fallen by 23% this year. An estimation from Morgan Stanley is that the profit margin of US companies will be dropped 0.5% for every 1% of the rising Dollar. And if we consider that during the fourth quarter due to the rise of the Dollar earnings will fall by about 10%, we can imagine the disaster that will follow in stocks, excluding other issues of energy costs. Moreover, the occurrence of major central banks’ policy tightening now in an aggressive manner is amazing. Therefore, this new bubble has to break out suddenly. The possibilities are raising for more rate hikes, according to the recent stubbornly high inflation, which in turn will strengthen the Dollar even more. And this is good for the US because strengthening the dollar means cheaper imports and a record purchasing power for Americans. But for non-American citizens is bad and especially for the other Central Banks that have deposits in US dollars. It will be more expensive to repay their loans – companies and emerging market governments – since, from the debt data perspective, $83 billion dollars are going to be matured by the next year covering 32 countries. According to the World Bank, there are warnings of heading a global recession and many developing economies will face huge damages respecting the cutting in spending on education and health care to cover their debt payments. What’s even more concerning for now is that volatility and VIX is still relatively low despite lower stocks. So is extreme fear yet to come? Check our VIX chart in one of our past ideas.
ICEUS:DX1!
by ew-forecast
4
Make America great again with Dollar.From 1985, DXY oscillated into falling wedge and nowadays rising on EUR weakness. This falling wedge got confirmed and trend is strong. Consumers prices rises to try accelerate worldwide economy. Damage was done in US by printing. However, the war in Europe destroying Euro. Many of Us, traders and investors thought this have to come sooner or later. With that money supply increase... Strong EUR, USD or Equal Euro to Dollar is not very good for markets. But markets raised 2 years, bad situation show up and Bear cycle going forward in Covid shadow. Basically, governments don't want you to be so rich all the time. Only way how to control world , rich people and companies is through markets. I personally expecting strong 5th major bullish wave in Stocks & Cryptocurrency markets. This would be quite quick for now ( markets are in 4th corrective wave ). It will always rise and fall. Exchanges want you drag into trades , speculations and liquidate. Future is coming so let's monitor this yellow fractal. : - ) I have always this 2 quotes on my mind because I don't feel in prosperity enviroment like and still have to pay taxes : "There are two main forms of wealth in today’s 2025 world: Land and Cryptocurrency." "In 2030, You’ll Own Nothing And Be Happy About It" Yours Emvo. *This is not any financial advice.
TVC:DXYLong
by Emvo10
Short Spain/Ibex 35So... the Spanish market has actually OUTPERFORMED all the other european indiced in the past year and actually YTD: www.investing.com --> "Performance" that makes no sense... a country/economy which were on the edge of bankrupcy in the last financial crisis. Why has this economy outperformed all the other eonomies? it makes no sense . IMO a short position for the rest of the year (if needed) should be in order. As soon as the ECB raises the interest rates, just watch Spain (and Italy for that matter) it will go down and struggle like all the southern european countries has done for ages. Nothing has changed - it will happen.
SShort
by Hvalp
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher). I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else. My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes. Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022. Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
ETHEREUM SHORT / ETH SHORTI am in love with the Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, De-Fi and Web 3.0 and I will continue to search about this revolution. The Ethereum is one of the best in blockchain and I really like the purpose and vision of the founder and community. I love this kind of projects: Ethereum, Cardano... Although I do not see the security of the code as very effective, I like this proyect on the long-term. I think it's unfortunate that the world looks rigid to prices, to some numbers. Many of us here are investors and we are looking for returns. When things get ugly, even if we don't want it to, they get ugly and no one can change it. I have given details about this crash on other ideas, specially a cryptocurrency edition: "THE BITCOIN CRASH" (where I explain the crash of cryptocurrencies and bitcoin), I recommend you to take a lot at it for a further investigation. On Ethereum , we can see the highest peak: 4872.56 on 10 Nov, 2021 . And on the 18 Jun, 2022 the price was 993.94 : representing a fall of -78.65% If we take a look at the S&P 500 , we can see the highest peak: 4818.04 on 04 Jan, 2022 . And on the 22 Jun, 2022 the price was 3666.32 : representing a fall of 23.71% Where is the problem here? well if we take a look of all the crisis we have had, the drop was always between -45% and -60%. As far as we can "estimate", another fall is coming. Apart from the percentage of fall, the crisis in which we are still not over... then the market unfortunately need another drop... If we look at the S&P 500 it needs another fall of -23.71% since 993.94 (but we can see a more abrupt and longer fall). If we look at Ethereum it needs another fall of -78.65% since 3666.32 (but we can see a more abrupt and longer fall). Leaving us the price of Ether (ETH) at 221 I know that Ethereum will soon release its Ethereum 2.0 update and if all goes well the programs and applications on Ethereum will be more agile, and it can serve as a small support to the price of Ether. But inflation is inflation, falls are falls, crisis are crisis... Unfortunately this will be a long recovery since all the bubbles in the world have come together and created a huge one (check my linked ideas to know more). I wish long life and development of cryptocurrencies. Remember that not everything is the price, human development and progress is worth more than that. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECISIONS YOU MAKE. Any idea or point of view that you want to contribute in the comments, you are welcome, thanks for reading a like would be appreciated <3 Thanks you very much, Have a nice day!
Short
by TheWaterBottle
How occur the House Debt Bubble on 2008I'm watching the past how occur the House Debt Bubble on 2008 in the Real State Housing in America. This it's S&P 500 how this economic indicator behavior during the year 2008-2009 into this worse financial crisis in North America. So, I want to share our present situation what the S&P it's behavior now: Ok, we're in the possible bubble financial in this high point as we forming a higher low in the market structure indicating weak in the trend. Now, if I see that S&P 500 break down the EMA 200 and make a resistance pull back below of the EMA 200, this will be the beginning of the death cross in the stock market and market crash entering in the bubble financial. Ok, and now we're going to discuss How the S&P 500 behavior in the past? 1) We see a very similar patron formed in our present. 2) We see a higher low formed in the past indicating weak in the trend, and the recently market structure a market trap that I see in our present 3) When break down the EMA 200 and make this pull back below of the EMA 200, the financial market began their bubble financial on 2008 and crash of the financial market. At the moment, we see the 2 criteria confirmed, and we could to entry in the exactly moment of market trap developing now. So guys, if you want to read about how this House Debt Bubble occur on 2008, there're a lot educational content in You Tube, documental, wikipedia or blog to read and watching this past history that look very interesting to understand how this occur, the history it's very extensive to post it here. Also, there a lot content to check out in internet, and also, I suggsted to study and watch the 2 bubble in our history 1) "Crack of 29", called the bubble financial on 1929, the most famous oil financial crisis in the worldwide occur in America in the century XX. 2) House Debt bubble on 2008, called the Real State Housing crisis in America that made an deep impact in the financial market and one of the worse bubble in the history of the humanity. I hope that this content educational support you
SP:SPXEducation
by harisonhbn9718
2
SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007. If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible. Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007. Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP? Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
SP:SPX
by wallstreetstocks
Advanced TA (Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Others) Lead TrendsThis is a complex chart showing the SPY in a broad spectrum of Advanced Technical Analysis. What you need to understand is this rally has stalled after a "scouting party" attempt to identify support above the long-term CYAN price channel (which also acted as support in early 2021 on the way down). Failure to hold this support level will prompt a very big downside price trend that may retest the 2015-16 lows. Everyone is talking about a Fed Pivot - but I don't see that happening. I see a broad financial crisis event unfolding over the next 4+ years where asset values contract (homes, stocks, and others) in a global unwinding process. China/Asia are particularly at risk because they may not see any real recovery from their excess speculation phase until after 2027+. The US markets may recover 2~3 years before foreign markets as the US has somewhat prepared for another crisis event after 2007-10 - but we'll see. Failure at this point would indicate a potential for a new Wave 3 (downward) that could be rather large. Learn to protect your assets as you identify opportunities. This is not the time to go ALL IN on any big trend. This warning is CONDITIONAL. The SPY would have to move lower and break $363 to establish a new downward price trend. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Safe short? Opinion: With rising gas prices in the Netherlands, a lack of financial support for industry energy prices and gym memberships being a 1 year contract. I think it is safe to expect $BFIT to loose its gains very soon. Gym's are one of the most electricity consuming retail focused activities, with high delinquency rates. Looks to me like a safe #SHORT. (PS: Time to short energy intensive stocks ahead of E.U winter. If you have other energy intensive stock ideas, please post in the comment section.) Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
EURONEXT:BFITShort
by TheBitcoinGeneration
This ETF will predict the 2022 recession.Looking at the graph, we can see a very high-quality inverted head and shoulders pattern, because the second top made a way higher top than the first top. To add to that, the volume is decreasing rapidly, meaning we are very near the next bottom. This would be definitive for the ETF, because if this ETF increases in price, than the house prices would drop. This would cause a chain reaction, leading to a recession. That is why, on my last study, I said that the 2022 recession is closer than we think it is. A crisis is imminent, so be ready. AMEX:DRV
AMEX:DRVLong
by lorinstocksinvesting
3
S&P500 Short, The rise of globalizationWith the US. Economy showing signs of a decline in growth be it through the freezing of hiring of new employees, personal savings decline even worse than before the pandemic, sky-high interest rates, etc. and with conflicts arising in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea putting a strain on resources, it brings to question whether or not everything should be globalized to efficiently manage resources like a bee hive, as a means to prevent global conflicts and give everyone a decent standard of living. SP500 bottom is a long way to go. 5th Generational warfare will likely play out as foreign currencies cash in on this opportunity to establish global dominance IF world leaders decide not to participate/continue plans for a technocracy. Blockchain technology can be the vessel to help govern us w/o bias from tradeoff, taking into account/analyzing the metadata we (individuals and corporations/stakeholders) provide through our thoughts and transactions. People may hate or dislike the WEF or the Bilderberg Group. Still, I believe they are Earth’s best hope for the continuation of government and civilization even if it means at the temporary cost of human life and individual quality of life via sustainability. A correction is coming either by force from mother nature or by choice from world leaders. I say this given the scarcity of resources and lack of continuous innovation to efficiently use the available pool of resources to sustain the infrastructure of society as it stands. Trade E: 412 SL:450 TP:273 Key dates to take note of: Sept. 26th Oct. 28th Resistance in from 440 to 410 given: -PA near VWAP sourced from Point of Deflection -PA near 0.5-0.618 fibs of wave A -PoC of wave A being defined as the upper limit at 440 Confirmation of signal will happen once we close under 410 on a daily candle. Dates noted earlier are like when volatility ends or begins. HV indi on the daily gives warning of vol expansion soon, but the weekly vol contraction is at play meaning we may distribute/consolidate around 400-430 for the next 3 months under the dates noted earlier to trigger the final nail in the coffin to ~$200 . BTC will likely consolidate as well during this time staying at a neutral bias until 21k is broken to the downside or it continues to coor. with SP500.
AMEX:SPYShort
by linebands
FEDEX SHORT (FDX SHORT) :(Hello, I have explained many things about the recession in my idea about the world crisis of 2023. And other articles such as the OIL SHORT, or THE BITCOIN CRASH (I will leave all these ideas linked.) But here I want to delve deeper into supply chains. I'm here again to show you a SHORT idea against FedEx , that company that is in the middle of all the orders in the world. What would we do without transportation chains? They are always in the middle of "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Transport chains like FedEx are very necessary, since without them the orders could not be transported. Now the words: "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Sounds me as a special effect, THE BULLWHIP EFFECT. You know, the BULLWHIP EFFECT, as the name suggests: "bullwhip", with a small change in the "whip", could cause devastating effects in the "whiplash". I recommend to search on Google about the Bullwhip Effect, there are nice videos on YouTube. The bullwhip effect in demand forecasting arises when each channel member forecasts demand based on information derived from the ordering patterns of an immediate inferior member. It basically consists in that consumer demand does not present significant fluctuations, while inventories reveal important changes, showing a decrease or excess in stock levels. If, in the different links of the supply chain, they do not handle constant and true information on their inventories and consumer demand for their products, the bullwhip effect gains strength, generating an excess of safety stock, which, as is known, radically increases the cost. , the end product. What are the causes of this effect? Lack of information between suppliers and intermediate buyers. Management without order in production orders, generating volatility in shipments. Possible periods without demand for the goods. Possibilities of obtaining wholesale discounts (Which generates time problems). Inflated or strategic orders. (Taking advantage of market conditions). Supply uncertainty. It can generate unnecessary orders. This effect is so devastating that it is very difficult to detect it really, but it is more difficult to detect it if we are in a "SLUMPFLATION"... I was not amused when the media said that the crisis would not yet come. OBVIOUSLY I don't want any crisis. What I don't want is for the crisis to be worse. They always make the same mistake, they hide the real data and say that the recession hasn't arrived yet. But in a few months the recession was sooner than expected. What is in the middle of all the BULLWHIP EFFECT? - Answer: "Transport Chains" Actually the transport chains will also be affected, just put on some music in a dark room, close your eyes, and think about it. Don't let your money foolishly burn! Bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble... SPLASH! I do not have much to add. You just need to do a little research on the internet, DON'T TRUST ANYONE, NOT THE FED, NOR THE PRESIDENT, NOR THE INTERNET, NOR DO YOU TRUST ME. You can only trust yourself and your research that you have done. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND PLEASE SEARCH THE INFORMATION ON YOUR OWN, BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AND IN NO WAY WILL I BE RESPONSIBLE IF YOU USE THIS IDEA THAT I AM SHARING HERE. Thank you very much for reading this article and not closing it like others. Have a nice day, Esiquiel.
NYSE:FDXShort
by TheWaterBottle
8
USD/UAN Ritual devaluation of the Ukrainian UAN. Situation nowRitual figures on the chart that were ahead of the events in Ukraine. The timeframe on the chart is 1 week. 57 weeks (12) Time 399 days 21 (management changes) Potential maximum channel height + 303% 57 weeks. 399 days. It all depends on how the price fixes in these important areas. Fixing the price above a certain zone will mean further growth of the dollar and the depreciation of the hryvnia. Target 1 zone + 47% 2 zone + 173% 3 zone + 303% A well-run crowd works like one foolish person. This graph shows the 1 day depreciation of the hryvnia in 2014 on the timeframe. At that time, there were well-known sad events in Ukraine. Maidan. Coup d'etat. The war in the Donbass. Detachment of the Crimea. All numbers in key areas are readable in meaning and not random. The schedule and non-random numbers in key areas were far ahead of events in the country. And not all the way around as the crowd thinks. On the chart, the timeframe is 1 day. The former ritual devaluation of the hryvnia. Growth 288 bar. (18) -666 402d (42) Destruction change. Maidan. The war in Ukraine in the Donbass in 2014. Detachment of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. + 310% (13 mirrored). The birth of a new government. In order to always manage the herd, it is sometimes necessary to fulfill the insignificant desires of the sheep, so that faith in the herd is maintained that the wolf is not a wolf, but just a sheep in sheep's clothing. In a herd, a person plays the role that the herd has formed and given to him. He is experiencing this role, he is comfortable in this role. Without this role, there will be the realization that he is a jerk, bio trash, one of many. Background player in a game. But when he is in the role, he is an important person, primarily for himself. _____________________________________________ Coup d'etat. "Maidan" and ritual figures. Coup d'etat. "Maidan" - Independence Square in Ukraine November 21, 2013 - February 22, 2014. Everything is clear according to plan with pedantic observance of all ritual terms for the owners. It is very important. As we see the numbers are not random. 21 = our century + 18-666 + 3 (the birth of a new one). 22 - change of what is. Pay attention to which digits of the pulses of the maxima. 13,111 33,711 The years for the implementation of this local project are also not random. 2013 (13 new management) 2014 (14 destruction of the old government). Not understanding people that they do not decide anything in their life, but are just fuel in someone else's game, just makes them that fuel _________________________________________________________________ Ukrainian bonds OBGZ and an hourly nuclear bomb for this country. The issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion)! This is a nuclear bomb with a clockwork for the Ukrainian economy, which would work without the global financial crisis. The hryvnia will be in a very sad position. What do you think is the secret to strengthening the hryvnia against the dollar in the fall of 2019? The trick is issuing bonds of the internal state loan (OVDP) of Ukraine. For the first time in history, the issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion) !!! The vast majority of bonds owned by foreigners are issued in hryvnia (an average of UAH 98.17 billion, or $ 3.61 billion). The rest are issued in dollars and euros. The Ministry of Finance on September 24 raised 13.2 billion hryvnias from the sale of government bonds. Most of which came from 5-year bonds. Reports the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The total volume of 5-year government bonds reached 33.9 billion hryvnia. Weighted average rates of return were: for 6-month government bonds - 15.89% for 1-year government bonds - 15.09% Who does not understand all the salt that the state is forced to pay anyway! Even if there is a collapse of the economy! And he will be! Only default announcements give the state the right not to pay interest to investors, but then there is a risk of lowering the country's credit rating. And this is tantamount to default. As in this case, Ukraine will be equal in carelessness for investment with African countries. If directly without water, then the whole of Ukraine was completely sold for a temporary benefit before the financial crisis. All national enterprises and lands will be transferred to "investors" who will force Ukraine to pay debts on their investments. A default announcement will not save how the IMF will declare a loan to repay the same debt on bonds at a certain percentage. Ukraine owes huge amounts to the Navy. And every newly made temporary "king" is not averse to taking a loan from the IMF to appease the people during his reign. And what will happen then does not interest him. Do you think local actors in the government did not understand this? No, everyone understood and I am sure all these billions are already where they are needed. In the future, no one was planning to pay a percentage of income to investors in Ukrainian bonds, as it is physically impossible even without a financial crisis. Just local authorities took the opportunity. And it is clear that this was an order from above. _______________________________________________________________ EUR / RUB I also did the EUR / RUB trading idea several days before the price increase at the lowest entry point when confirming support and the zone, I think this is also relevant, as it is the same trash currency. Symmetric triangle. Trends Reversal zones. The situation is now. 2 target achieved + 32%
Long
by SpartaBTC
21
THE BITCOIN CRASHIt is clear that the cryptocurrency bubble has suffered a fall, but the worst is yet to come. Bitcoin does not have any kind of value, and this reminds me of the .com bubble of 99... where only those companies that really provided good value survived. Well, I think something will happen this way with the "Blockchain" technology. Many worthless projects will be destroyed and only those with a very good value will survive in the future. The currency "Bitcoin" is not a PONZI. What is a PONZI is the number of projects that are created in order to scam people, we have already seen many scams... Squidgame token... Omicron Coin... LUNA... USDT?? These scam projects or projects with pure FOMO and meaningless, as they happened in the 99's, will devastate the entire Blockchain and economic sector... Bitcoin has provided a great technology, the "Blockchain" that is why I appreciate it like many other people. Bitcoin is great and I'm a big fan of it, but sadly, the bubble is going to burst. Without a doubt THE WORST WORLD CRISIS as I mentioned in my other article of "2023 Global Crisis". It's literally not one bubble, it's several... You would see this bubble as a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a BIG bubble. If any bubble bursts (which will burst), the rest will too, maybe a little longer or a little less, but they will. In the graph you can see that my levels to which Bitcoin can fall are between $6,000 and $25 Some people will call me crazy, but in reality my figure is not true since no one can predict the PRICE of the market. What people can predict is how other people predict a price with FOMO. You don't have to be a genius to see it, you just have to walk away from the party and see how others enjoy very loud music while the next morning everyone is on the floor. Please do your own research and do a lot of research on this. DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY IN CRYPTO STABLE COINS, Thanks. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. YOU AND ONLY YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AFTER READING THIS ARTICLE. Thank for reading this article (if anyone has read it), A pleasure to share my advice, Esiquiel ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheWaterBottle
3