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Crisis

OIL SHORT :(As I mentioned 10 months ago about the worst World Crisis of 2023. I wanted to share this analysis on the price of OIL and its derivatives, as well as gasoline, it will be affected and is being affected along with oil. There are many indicators that indicate the coming crisis of 2022-2023... This crisis, the worst of all, "The crisis of everything" creates a gigantic DOMINO effect. MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING, Inflation, Oil inflation, transport price rise, food price rise, real estate inflation and exorbitant prices, etc.... It's very simple: when the first "domino" falls and begins to push the rest (the bubble bursts), and I reach the "domino" of oil, there will be a SUPPLY SHOCK in Oil and its derivatives, obviously. People will not be able to afford the exorbitant and INFLATIONARY prices of Oil and derivatives. There will be no time nor will it be possible to reduce the SUPPLY in advance, because by reducing the SUPPLY at this moment, as there is a high level of demand right now. The price of oil and gasoline will rise shamelessly... It would be UNSUSTAINABLE and would produce new bubbles ("refilled with oil") distributed by all the oil companies, gas stations, and in turn throughout the world. Where they are, they WILL BURST IMMEDIATELY "when exposed to transportation traffic." I also wanted to talk to you about the Gas Stations and their arrangements with the Bank... Banks hold Oil as well as Gold and other financial assets. Imagine that a bank has a paper that says that it has $1B dollars in oil, and this oil was provided by a gas station and/or its relations and suppliers of this gasoline / oil. When the gas station goes BANKRUPT, the paper that the bank owned will become "Wet Paper"... Please think about it... The number of gas stations that can go bankrupt and the number of producers of oil and its derivatives that can be greatly affected. As you can see in the graph this is my analysis and I think that Oil will not be saved from this crisis... I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE OR A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN INVESTIGATION IF YOU WISH TO INVEST. Thank you very much for reading and a like will be appreciated ;)
TVC:USOILShort
by TheWaterBottle
SPX - Update on the S&P500 last moveHello traders, Today on SPX, a lot of movement with the announcement of the CPI index report, which equals to 8.6%....wHaT a SuRpriSEeee!! even though we know it is supposed to be even higher....anyway... all investor are afraid aff, of course, and here are the result...! I show you in the analysis below how I approach the last move with the Elliott Waves analysis Wave green (b) retracement on (a) Wave orange C extension Wave white 3 extension Wave white 5 extension
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ModTrades
1
🔥 NASDAQ Following 2008 Crisis Fractal: Bad Omen?Before we dive deeper into the analysis I want to state clearly what I always state in fractals: no one can predict the future and price patterns/fractals are valid until they aren't, take them with a grain of salt. However, try to keep an open mind. In today's analysis I want to take a quick look at the NASDAQ, which is the main technology index for the US stock markets. I found that the current pattern very closely resembles the fractal from back in 2008, right before the main crash and meltdown of the stock markets. Main differences are the heights of the tops/bottoms in relation to each other, there's some small differences in height here and there, but fractals are never 1-to-1 perfect. Second main difference is the speed at which the pattern plays out. In 2008 the it took the market 213 days to get from step 1 to step 6. In 2022 it took just 90 days. If the market will continue to follow this bearish fractal we can expect another bullish push towards the yellow box on the chart. From this box, the price will reverse sharply and make a new macro lower-low, resulting in a crash. Naturally, this fractal will be invalidated if we either make a new high above 5-6 or if we fall further below 4. The future will tell whether we're going to see more downside in the near future. However, the markets are not signaling much (macro) bullishness at the moment, so I won't rule a crash out in the coming months.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FieryTrading
7
XAUUSD Ascending tunnel 4h Since 5th of June to today - ascending tunnel formation built out of higher highs and higher lows creating the shape of a tunnel going up. The range to sustain the pattern is 1789 - 1825. A break below 1789 with a 4h close, will allow for further decline down, as a first stage to 1760 hourly support. A break above 1825 with a 4h close, will allow for target of 1920 weekly resistance to reach in the short-medium term. Important levels range at the high 1790's and low 1800's. Triple top between 2011-2013 on the weekly level show around 1800 - relevance to today is high. A break above will be significant for the continuation of the uptrend breaking new highs. On a fundamental level, needless to say, 10 trillion USD printed money together with overall lack of certainty and hysteria continue to push Gold higher. Printed money dropping the US $ value and lack of real investment in equities don't provide much ground for drop of Gold price below important supports.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
₿itcoin / Facing crisis / New cycle / CommerciumHispanus🌎🟠Bitcoin: After more than a decade “overheated” with exponential but increasingly reduced rises, it seems to be entering a calmer stage where corrections will not be lacking and it can lateralize on important levels for a time, typical of a market that matures and reaches a significant capitalization. BTC has a trend and polarity level ahead in a monthly time frame that will serve as supports if the crypto asset continues to decline, until now that I am writing this paragraph it is my main scenario. To recover the price level of $52,000 by breaking the monthly polarity level exposed in my other trade ideas –resistance- after a breakout of a level where it could not do it for more than 75 days, $44,500, –right now this achievement is compromised- is the task of the buyers to return Bitcoin to the upward rhythm it has had in the last 2 years and continue in a yellow channel invalidating any low this 2022, where reaching 6 digits in 12 months or less will be the most likely, scenario where I will change my current view. I propose and believe today, that Bitcoin enter the blue zone, a "cold" zone where we will see it oscillate -at least- the average time it has previously taken to "cook" its new bull run, perhaps going down from its previous maximum (2017), time-space that will be the origin of new cycles, where it will gain greater adoption, an opportunity that will give it to those who still do not know it to take it into account - But, as I've said in some of my other reports, "regulators are the doctors trying to keep a patient who has suffered from multiple ketoacidosis stable" In my opinion, the forecast for this model is reserved Any criticism, comment, suggestion is welcome. –see related ideas at the bottom of this idea- To enter the market you must have: Strategy Market vision Domain of emotions Capital management Quality tools 👍If this publication has been useful for you, remember to LIKE it and share it on your social networks 👉🏻Follow me on tradingview, activate notifications in your browser and keep an eye on your email where you will receive my regular updates. 👏🏻If you want to support my work you can make a donation on this same platform. 💬 If you require any additional information contact me by private message, I will gladly assist you. Thanks for your support! Greetings to all and good luck! 🌎 Commercium Hispanus Cryptocurrency trading is subject to high market risk. Carry out your operations with caution. I always do my best to choose high quality coins, but I will not be responsible for your trading losses.
BNC:BLX
by UnknownUnicorn6489805
4
SPX Short, Retirement Crisis?A possible explanation behind the incoming crash, the retirement crisis. Will boomers transfer their wealth to the next generation via free market (allowing the market to rightfully correct and have the younger generation (Gen Y & Z) buy equities at low prices), or will the government (federal reserve) step in and increase the balance sheet (and thus "prevent" a crash on paper)? Perhaps both. Gen Y and Z have decided to adopt and develop crypto to digitize and decentralize the old financial system (DeFi, NFTs) as the fed continues to print more money (as seen from the 2020 $ printing/stim. checks). This younger generation will not buy the bags of the old financial system (from the stock market to real estate) that are overvalued (Stock market with P/E ratios in the 30s, multimillion $ single-family homes), but rather force the old money to buy their crypto bags in the pursuit of the high ROI against inflation that crypto offers. As more inflation continues, crypto will get more adoption by traditional VCs, HFs, Central Banks, etc. This adoption will come from the firm's inability to answer two questions: 1. How will we get millennials and Gen Z to invest their saving with us? 2. How will we be able to keep the promise of paying out pension funds to the Boomer Generation? Privately, a few leading heads of these institutions (like Michael Saylor, Elon Musk) have entered the space after the 2017 and the 2020 DeFi Boom, but there are tens of trillion dollars left to enter it from the firms themselves. Hopefully in this great reset of economics, the young will own everything, and be happy.
SP:SPXShort
by linebands
Saturn Square Uranus CrisisSaturn square Uranus in the sky 1929-31 Data analysis through use of the amazing planetary aspects indicators created by @NasserHumood "The stock market crash in America on October 24, 1929 signaled the start of the Great Depression; and in November 1929 Saturn in the sky moved into orb of a square aspect with Uranus. Throughout 1930 and 1931 they formed four square aspects – on April 9, 1930, December 12, 1930, July 21, 1931 and October 17, 1931. This is the first time in BTC history this square is taking place. The last time we saw the same square was during the 2000 .com bubble. This already gives us an indication of what will happen to the general economy, as well as the legacy markets. To add to this even further, the last time these two (Saturn and Uranus) were in a difficult aspect was during the 2008 financial crisis. Another bubble was formed which was popped. This time it was the opposition of the two that did it. But the problem is with BTC because we haven’t seen BTC in action during this square. So far there has been a correlation between BTC and SP500 for example and the general stock market. If one goes down, the other one goes down as well. Will it continue? We don’t know, we will have to wait and see."
TVC:SPX
by EsotericTrading
3
Long Entry for GoldAs the past have shown us over and over again, in terms of crisis, commodities such as gold, energy or petrol tend to have much more demand than the rest. Because of this, their prices tend go raise exponentially compared to normal times. I believe at the moment, due to the Ukraine and Russia situation, there is a big long opportunity for assets like gold or oil. And not just that, but we also have to take into account, that this year, Feds are going to try their best to reduce the inflation levels, and this can also lead to a potential increase in these assets prices. Key points for this scenario Long entry TAKE PROFIT POINT 2100 TAKE PROFIT POINT 2200 TAKE PROFIT POINT 2300 TAKE PROFIT POINT 2400 STOP LOSS 1850 RISK REWARD RATIO : For 1 $ lost we have the possibility of making 0.75/1.25/1.75/2.25$
TVC:GOLDLong
by exlux
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
Prediction of next financial downturn - Pt.3 Hello everyone, Just wanted to give you an update regarding my past 2 plots and upcoming financial crisis. Seems like a "Yield Curve" indicator just crossed 250 days moving average, which means we just entered a financial crisis but all the stats from Q3 and Q4 will have to confirm that... please be ready for 2021 turmoil!! In short-term gold, silver and Bitcoin will go down, however, in long-term, I'm not selling any of these assets.
TVC:US10Y
by Simon_says
4
BTC Price Prediction - $20KGreedy Greedy People……congrats….You keep selling bitcoin at Walmart prices for McDonald’s money….stupid stupid people. Here we go road to $20K. Anyone who’s bullish still you are chasing a pipe dream, best of luck. I’m shorting Bitcoin to $20K and congrats to the YouTubers who are all losing hundreds of thousands of dollars advertising bullish market structure just to gain views. Everyone wants to be a bull until they get stomped out of their stop loss. $45k will not be broken in another year or two thanks to retail investors and institutions selling BTC quick to cover their losses during economic crisis. This only has dug the hole deeper for us smaller traders. We are now controlled like slaves to the whales manipulating the market causing bull traps. SHORT SHORT SHORT to $20K.
Short
by Fabreezio
1
US Savings Rate Breaks Uptrend Since the GFC!The total savings in US accounts as a percentage of disposable personal income saw an incredible spike during the lockdowns as "helicopter money" and "stimmy checks" flooded the bank accounts of consumers, fueling an awe-inspiring comeback in retail sales. Unfortunately, however, the data shows that not only is all of this stimulus money gone (along with the pent-up demand), but the US personal savings rate has broken an uptrend that was established after coming out of the last recession. Expect retail sales to falter (they already have) and credit card to start increasing (it already has) as the true state of the economy is revealed, right when the Fed is tapering off QE, planning 4 rate hikes this year, AND threatening QT. What could go wrong?? This is the same data that is reported by our own Fed: fred.stlouisfed.org
ECONOMICS:USPSShort
by HypnoticStrix