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XAUUSD @ Crispy Potato28/03/22 COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 = BULL DAYS OF FEB WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BULL This week opened fairly neutral and calm. Monday and Tuesday candle bodies were contained within Friday's body. Wednesday's candle matched Friday's body in the opposite Bull form. Thursday is a slight breakout with Friday producing a doji. Looking at volume the week had an alignment in the decline from the week before. Thursday and Friday saw an uplift in volume. The previous trend support line remains broken and it may result in the support line becoming a resistance line, the probability exists. The OBV is trending slightly upward. Going with just the evidence, it suggests the higher probability is bull for next week. The OBV is slightly up, the support line must be hit to chance to become a resistance line and a slight change to volume intensity. WEEKS OF MARCH WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT = NEUTRAL PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BULL This week produced a Bull candle inside the previous week's candle, it has formed an Inside Bar. This fits appropriately as the chart is trying to decide what direction to head in. Given the major pin bar and the stock mostly Bullish, the probability of higher prices remains. Volume is dropping off and the pin can mark the end of further price rises. There is plenty of room for many directions. Path of least resistance says to go, Bull, because other than a few minor signals there is nothing calling out a Bear move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy Potato27 March 2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 WAS = IN DIFFERENT THE COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH WEEK 5 OF 2022 IS = BEAR DAYS WEEK 4 OF MARCH 2022 FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE THE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR This week's volume was decent but very consistent across the week. The candle was Bear on Monday mostly body but some tails. Tuesday Bull with tails to the south, same as Wednesday but Bear. Thursday again similar bear candle but this time it is contained in the prior day's trade. Friday finished a falling star. These candles do look to forecast a bigger drop is forming. The probability goes to the Bears The OBV is trending down. WEEK WEEK 4 OF MARCH 2022 FORECAST WAS = BULL = INACCURATE THE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR The volume this week shrank again this time around 30%. The candle was Bear. It is now an "inside bar" The OBV is very bear orientated. A third week ago is the only reason I would give the Bulls a go but the candle this week lets that probability down. This week I see a higher probability for the Bears
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato27/03/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = DIVIDED ASSESSMENT DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR Monday produced a doji and continued its rally from last week. Tuesday was the largest candle, mostly body some tail on the bottom, and almost none on the top. Wednesday - Friday the candles all Bull but gradually decreased in body size and tails beginning to increase. By Friday we were back on a doji. The volume would be considered average given recent volumes. It increased through to Wednesday and began to slightly turn down by Friday. The OBV is trending Bull. Ther is a resistant point coming up at the $75 mark. This current rally has a steep angle, the candle sizing is waning. A correction seems probable this week. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL This week was a solid Bull candle, mostly body small tails on either side. Indicate little resistance to Bears and next to none for Bull. There is an oversold factor that will begin to play its rolls soon, it will be displayed with tails to the top. As this week approaches the resistance line, it also approaches a support line. This week looks Bull but the resistance can not be ignored. Based on the path of least resistance this week looks like Bull.
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato27/03/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = UNDECIDED This week opened calm. Monday produced a small doji Bull. This is leading on from the three last days, all precise Bull candles almost no tails, convincing momentum. Tuesday is the largest candle of the week, it is a Bull candle no tails. It is bigger than last week. Wednesday is about half size with small tails. Thursday increased candle body again 3/4 of Tuesday, xs tails. Friday produced a Bear hammer, small and contained inside Thursday candle. Top did not break high, in fact, it is almost identical tail and close/open point. Volume was largest on Friday. This indicates oversold is forming, but given the momentum of the Bull run we have a higher probability of a retracement only. This week has a higher probability of many options. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BULL The Bull candle this week is making the rally angle unsustainable. The volume is declining but is decent. The candle has only x small tails on either end, this indicates very little resistance for Bears. It is probable this week will have a decent tail. A north-facing tail would indicate oversold with Bears having greater influence. A south-facing tail would indicate the Bulls are going to give a few more weeks of effort before letting the Bears take over. Higher probability for Bull .
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy PotatoFORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = IN DIFFERENT COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (10/3/22-So far this assessment is incorrect) DAYS WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR On week 3 Monday produced a small bull candle, and again on Tuesday. Wednesday increased the volume and the candle body but Thursday and Fridays candles stalled the retracement, no sooner it began. The dropping volume supporting the end of the weak Bull rally. Thursday did close above the previous week's last high point back on 10 March. Fridays candle returned it to below that high. The larger trend is Bear, the OBV fell sharply over the last couple of weeks. The retracement is weak and it is probable the Bear trend will reform this week. WEEK WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL This week produced the third candle that forms a pattern, this pattern has produced reversals, with good consistency. There is the support that this pattern can become a reversal because it is in the right location of a trend support line. The longer term week trend has been bear, these last few weeks have a steep Bear angle. The volume is lower this week. The OBV is Bear, its lastest angle is steep. A reversal or at least a steeper retracement is possible because steep angles tend to have a retracement that can be traded.
by eatmycrispypotato
GBPUSD @ Crispy Potato20/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 3 MARCH 2022 WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE THE COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR DAYS WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR (but watch it first) Week 3, Monday produced a Bear candle with no bottom and upward tail. Tuesday produced the Bull candle to Monday's Bear, no bottom with a tail on the top. This is a reversal pattern. This pattern eventuated and the week remained Bull. The volume increased until Tuesday, afterward it gradually decreased. This falling volume indicates the Bull momentum will be tested adding to the test is the long-term Bear trend, and the recent bull week has hit a support line. The OBV is also trending down overall. It is probable the trend will continue Bear but it needs a price action before a Bear is confirmed. A pin bar, shooting star, or two candles of equal size but an opposite trend. Watch and trade only on good price action. WEEK WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR Week 3 of March produced a Bull candle and will a mirror version of the previous bear week there is a slight difference. Last week has a small tail. If a tail was missing this would be a decent Bull reversal signal. The volume was down from last week. There is nothing remarkable that indicates the Bear trend is finished or even finishing. The path of least resistance is the downtrend, the 2nd week prior broke its last support line, it appears the highest probability is Bear.
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
GBPUSD @ Crispy Potato27/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE THE COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR DAYS WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BEAR The week opened with a small Bear doji type candle, volume would be considered the low side of average. Tuesday was fairly Bull and it continued the uptrend. Volume was also the highest for this week. Wednesday to Friday were all three Bear candles but most of the movement was contained inside the Tuesday Bull candle. A struggle to bring the price down. Volume however did increase to near Tuesday's level. OBV is trending down. The bear signals are more than the bull signals. There is only one Bull signal the two Bear signals increase the probability the Bears will see most of this week. WEEK WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BEAR The candle this week was a falling star. While Bull, the candle tail does show the Bears can bring the price down. The volume was lower as well this week about 30% more. The OBV oscillation is increasing, it is Bear orientation. It is not uncommon for this price area to have volatility.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by eatmycrispypotato
WTI @ Crispy Potato28/03/2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 = BULL DAYS WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BULL = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BULL This week opened Bull with some of the lowest volumes in a while indicating price can easily rise further. Tuesday produced a small bear candle noting an increase in volume, decent too. This didn't produce any move the next day. Wednesday was Bull, a slight drop in volume, Thursday Bear again, with another increase in volume. Friday opened lower but finished small Bull, volume matches Thursday's volume. Path of least resistance says Bull week again. WEEK WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NEUTRAL = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BULL This week was a decent bull candle. The volume has picked up again from last week around 5% more. There was little tail on the bottom of this, indicating not a great deal of effort was applied to bring the price lower. The OBV is still affected by the rather large move 3 weeks ago which makes it difficult to interpret.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato20/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL Week 3 of March, on Monday opened a small Bear candle. Tuesday the candle was small bull almost doji. An unremarkable start to the week the chart was still tracking slightly Bull. Wednesday a strong Bull candle was formed and it broke the high back in October 2021. Wed to Frid formed a strong bull rally formation. The angle was quite steep compared to long, if the rally is to continue then we should see the week begin slowly, it will have small candles. A doji, followed by a decent Bear candle then we can expect a week that could be Bear. The probability I see as higher is the Bull. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL This week the Bull candle was exceptional, it is probable some volatility will be seen. it will appear as long tails. Overall this week broke a number of decent resistance levels not seen for some time. Path of least resistance says momentum has been established.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato20/03/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 3 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL Week3 of March, on Monday, produced a Bear candle but on Tuesday resistance was experienced and it produced a small almost doji. The following Wed, Thu and Friday produce 3 bull candles. This Friday closed with a new high again, while it didn't break the tail high it closed high. This indicates this week has a good probability of being Bull start with a taper off toward the end of the week. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL Week 3 of March produced a Bull candle. Its body engulfed the previous week. It has a long southward tail, this is a powerful rejection to the Bears. The volume is lower than previous weeks but this can be expected because the reversal is going to be met with resistance. The current position of the chart indicates resistance will be met somewhere around the 75 mark. The OBV is still trending sideways this demonstrates the resistance that will be met. It is probable this week will hit a key price point, it is also possible but less likely, that it will break it.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy Potato10/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = Bear (alignment of Day and Week assessments) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (10/3/22-So far this assessment is incorrect) DAYS WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR This week opened Bear with a high selling volume, signaling Bears have a stronger influence. Tuesday and Wednesday retraced with Bull candles, on Thursday It returned to Bear candles. This signals the retracement has been completed. Friday adds another layer of confirmation of another Bear rally with its Bear candle, note no southward facing tail, meaning the Bear move was in flight at the time of close. WEEK WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR This week was a combo between a Spinning Top and a Doji. The volume is considered very high (not its highest) The body of this week is contained in the southward facing tail (a small tail). Note the northward facing tail failed at the same open price of the week prior. The OBV is trending down now with an increased angle. It looks like the week opened Bull but was met with an acute failure at 1.11. It then abruptly turned south where it then essentially rain out of days in the week. Assuming this approach would give rise to a higher probability for bear continuation this week.
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
GBPUSD @ Crispy Potato 10/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (Based on day and week misalignment) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BEAR (Based on week and month alignment) DAYS WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR This week 2 of march opened and immediately broke the sideways support line. This currency has a high probability of a long term bear rally WEEK WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR Week 2 broke clear of the previous resistance/support line around 1.33. A solid bear candle, little to no tails. Volume substantial. The OBV has a nice downward trend. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = ACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BEAR GBPUSD is in trend sideways range, it is a sizeable range. Current the trend has turned from its high of 1.41 and now trending toward the 1.21 range. The bear candles for Jan and Feb support the bear continuation. Volume for Feb is higher than Jan, it supports a bear continuation. The OBV is in alignment with the candles
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
WTI @ CRISPY POTATO20/03/2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 3 MARCH 2022 = BEAR = ACCURATE COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = NUETRAL NO CALL DAYS WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NEUTRAL ASSESSMENT PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL Week 3 produced a Bear overall. Monday and Tuesday produce strong bear candles. Wednesday produce a doji/upside down hammer, it also had respectable volume. This indicates lower price a going to be forcibly resisted. Supporting this, Thursday produce a solid bull candle of same size to Tuesday candle. This series of 3 days candles are likely to be setting the Bull direction for next week. Friday finished softer and smaller, it was the lowest volume for the week2. The OBV shows and upward direction but the peaks of mountains are forming, is this an early sign to the downward side? Probability for this week has a high Bull attitude WEEK WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = NO CALL Week 3 produce the mirrored version candle to last week. We now have a strong rejection for higher prices and a strong rejection toward lower prices. The volume reduced around 40% to last week, but remains exceptionally high. This chart shows the volatility will remain.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato11/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 3 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 SPLIT No call made COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (But this is based on the Day and Week being in alignment, as well as the week having 4 strong bull candles) DAYS WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT MADE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BEAR This week 2 of March opened the bear candle. This candle has signals of some failings in the rally. It has a larger north-facing tail, Tuesday repeated this action. It did not eventuate as the bulls returned for the rest of the week. Note the volume has higher selling than the buying, this too is another sign of selling pressure building if assessed logically. The OBV is also in divergence with the currency, it is jagged and it has a bearish direction. Given the currency is at a key resistance point these signs give rise to a higher probability the resistance may be experienced this week. The probability goes to bears. WEEK WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT MADE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BULL This week was the 6th consecutive Bull candle, with steady volume (3rd prior week slightly higher) The OBV support higher prices as it shows higher highs yet the currencies highs are at the same resistance point. This coming week is positioned well to break the resistance point.
by eatmycrispypotato
2
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato10/03/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 3 MARCH 2022 IS = 52/48 Bull/Bear probability (The week is Bull and the Bulls have won on the days chart at key points 28Jan and 24Feb, meaning this challenge has a good chance of being won) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on Week and Month alignment) DAYS WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT MADE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = 51/49 Bull/Bear (because key support resistance points have been overcome) This week 2 of March it opened with a reversal bear candle, a nice bear body with only a candle facing north. The Bears were not able to use this candle to regain momentum, instead, it became a struggle between Bull and Bear. You can see the volume was level on these days. Interestingly the OBV is almost completely sideways, it is quite jagged and slightly bearish. This week has the potential for either direction. I say this because this rally has won against a number of key support and resistance points that exist within this sideways trend but the OBV shows the struggle is real. If the price is to increase it will be a slow game. WEEK WEEK 2 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT MADE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = BULL Week 2 of March was Bear, its body went around 40% into the previous week's body, the candles present but not long. Northward facing tail is longer. The volume for this week is significant but not the highest seen. On the OBV look at the previous bump, note the currency is $75. This OBV bump is higher but the price is only $75. The OBV may be indicating the bull is of higher influence. This week has a decent probability this Bear candle will be followed by a Bull candle.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
1
WTI @ Crispy Potato12/03/2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 = 40/60 bull/bear probability COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = DAYS WEEK 1 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NEUTRAL PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = Neutral no call Week 2 of March was bear. After Friday the prior week, it opened bull but finished with a decent northward facing tail. Tuesday's bull candle is inside Mondays tail. Wednesday a large engulfing candle developed is a bear breakout price action. Volume on this day was the greater (note volume the last two weeks exceeds all previous volumes. Thursday and Friday were settling days, volume beginning to return to normal. The OBV is in a full bull rally. One would assume this could be a bear retracement, because it's at a peak and there is no fakey, it is a solid candle. This coming week will inform us of the direction, it needs increased selling volume to give a bear direction, else this will slowly but steadily rise in price. There is a probability between Mon-Wed we see a pin par that touches the 100. WEEK WEEK 1 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 3 MARCH = Bear This week was a bear, with exceptional volume. The angle is very steep, it is likely it will need to retrace back to the previous trending bull rally range. Expect this week to settle around the $100 before setting its next rally MONTH FORECAST MTH MARCH = BULL Sizable bull candle body with 1.2 times tail to the north. Clear of the previous resistance level this chart is now bull led by their influence. OBV now trends BULL another confirmation of BULL-dominated influence. The chart looks to have commenced a BULL rally.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by eatmycrispypotato
TSLA @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (Week and Days divided) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BEAR (smaller candle body likely tails) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This week continued the bearish decline. Thursday gap opened with a solid Bull candle raising prices again, it had no tails. Friday gap opened again (small) with a close in the same spot. the range was very tight. This suggested the pin bar of the week chart has little meaning, the OBV now possibly holds more weight. Probability this week will continue Bear. Note volume on Thursday was significant with Friday decreasing again. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL (based on pin bar at a key location, this is a powerful move and holds more weight in my view than the OBV) This week formed a pin bar within a previously tested resistance range, this is key as this range was a significant high point back in early 2021. This is possibly the end of a retracement according to basic candle patterns. Volume increased this week however the OBV is showing a defined downtrend. So we now have some opposing views. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = ACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BEAR (smaller candle body likely tails) Complete Bear candle with average volume. The candle had a decent bottom tail as did Jan. Price closed at previous resistance suggesting March may be positive. OBV is still quite high but it has started to turn downward. Three months straight of bear candles indicates Bears has control of direction. But the declining volume does improve the probability of a Bull or a smaller Bear candle.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by eatmycrispypotato
VALE @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (unanimously Bull) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NOT ASSESSMENT COMPLETED PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL This week the retracement was completed. Opening Mon-Wed the candles were small and insignificant, running the retracement through its process. Thursday the retracement end corrected with a Bull candle and significantly increased volume. Friday followed another Bull candle. Open was at 50% of the previous day, no tail the candle remained Bull all day, and finished with little to no tail on top. A strong finish for this setup the following week. OBV is in alignment. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL This week was Bull with a tail to the bottom. The candle body was similar to the previous 2 weeks. Volume has picked up from last week. This candle, along with two weeks ago, sends a strong signal to Bears, the Bulls hold the power of play. The next resistance points begin around $19 and up to $21. It is probable this stock will rally up to around this point with little objection. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL The third Bull candle three months in a row, a strong Bull influence. Each month increases in candle body size. Volume is above average. The OBV interestingly is not in alignment, it is sideways with a slightly downward motion. Another note is the rallies are steep, steep rallies tend to create steep retracements = volatility. Also note, this stock does tend to tolerate longer steep rallies. The probability of a Bull March is higher than a Bear
NYSE:VALELong
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL (Based on alignment with Day and Week) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (But this is based on the Day and Week being in alignment, as well as the week having 4 strong bull candles) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL Days during this week were volatile. These days sit inside a range ongoing since December. Friday's candle offers insight into the direction of the trend. This solid and larger body bull candle has formed at a key point It is a strong candle at the top of this range. Thursday candle supports a bull move by rejecting the bears. Volume on Thursday is significant but it is a knee-jerk reaction from the war event that has commenced. The OBV daily chart is in divergence with the candles. This may play an important role and may result in this Friday bull candle being a fizzle.- Overall there appears to be a higher probability of a BULL week than a BEAR week. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO CALL MADE = ACCURACY N/A PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL This week was again bull, it is the 4th bull candle. Volume is increasing, this supports the notion of higher prices ahead. The OBV has also responded but I take note that the recent low does diverge from the candle low respectively. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL (But this is based on the Day and Week being in alignment, as well as the week having 4 strong bull candles) This month retaliates to January. A definite struggle of both sides to take control, neither is winning. This price point has not been tested like this previous, instead, any direction change was swiftly counteracted. This is a tug-of-war, which is timely as the Russian war has started. This candle was bull with little to no tails. Volume has increased from January. The OBV gives away little of the chart's intentions.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (based on Day and Week divergence) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on Week and Month alignment) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This chart is trending sideways since Dec 2021. This week on this Wednesday a small shooting star formed, it is near the top of the sideways trend. On Thursday the volume increased significantly, the candle size was respectable for this chart. Thursday candle had a bottom tail, also of decent size. Friday's candle match Thursday indicates Bull can match Bear moves. Given the candles are near the top of the range there is a good probability for it to now head toward the bottom. Note: there is a possibility, due to the war, the AUD market could be a safe haven for investors. Borders are now open, tourism is now operable it looks like a good place to invest. A slight hiccup, there are floods on the southeast, this may counteract investment possibilities WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BULL = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL 4TH consistent Bull candle, matched with increasing volume. This indicates decent Bull influence that is resilient to Bear influence. This is a strong Bull position, it will be needed to break the $72 mark. The OBV supports this direction. Note the $70 is a tried and tested support level, 4 weeks ago tested this for the third time and bounced. The probability for a Bulls to rally is high. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL This chart hovers at a tested support level of $72. the trend has stalled at this price point now for 3 consecutive months. Indications are the bears have lost influence. The volume of Feb has increased from January, this indicates buying pressure is on the rise. The OBV doesn't give away much but this is okay. Given the slowing momentum of the bear trend and the potential for Australia to be considered a safe place to invest, it is probable March will finish as a Bull candle. One caveat is the floods.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR (based on the alignment of week and day) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on month assessment, noting the divergence of the day and week charts)) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This daily chart is essentially tracking sideways. Recently that range has increased in magnitude. The week opened with its slow but steady continuation downward. Thursday it significantly increased the candle body and bottom tail, along with significant volume. Friday formed an inside bar containing most of its body within Thursday's body. Volume is also significant but around 30% reduction in size. These recent large moves are still contained with the sideway motion of this chart. A close below 1.11 is needed, as well as a close above 1.14. We are nearer to 1.11. Given the larger downtrend, it is probable this move with greatly test the 1.11. Note: OBV though trending south, I sense it has the feel of a change in direction. If we compare the candle highs and the OBV highs, the last OBV is higher.....could this be reversal forming? WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This week, the candle formed a spinning top. The volume increased from last week, coupled with the OBV trending bear this is a convincing downtrend. The probability for this week says bears will hold the dominant influence. The previous 4th week ago, failed to develop the engulfing candle into a bull run. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL The body is contained inside January's body. Volume was up from the previous month. OBV is not really identifying a great deal. There are three low points Jan2017, March2020, and these last two months. These represent a trending support line. March has the possibility of bouncing or protruding. Given the highs are also lower, I see a compressing range. I expect this to continue, this would mean March would have a higher probability to be BULL.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato