Salesforce $CRM "cup w handle"$CRM has just cleared $184.80 handle buy point yesterday. RSI broke the trendline too and the volume was more than average.
12 months Consensus Price Target: $198.50
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CRM
CRM Bullish (ER Run Up)Symmetrical Triangle + Bullish Channel (Time Frame Confluence) + Momentum
I'm expecting CRM to continue in the bullish channel up to a price target of 189.98 (Supply Zone) before seeing a big pullback. No loss of bullish momentum yet but will wait for a break above 180 before entering Long.
Why I'm Betting Long on Intuit and SalesforceFirst off, please don't take what I say seriously, this is on opinion basis, and I may have a conflict of interest. That being said, let us get to my thoughts. Both stocks are in the same CRM and cloud computing industry categories, and both had very similar growth correlations and periods. I believe as a long hold, both stocks are still continuing to meet many market expectations, and aren't high risk companies to invest in. You could see by my chart, I have set positive targets for both.
$CRM Breakout to All-Time HighToday we're looking at Salesforce.com on the 1W chart as price has consolidated into an ascending triangle. Over the past week price has broken through the horizontal resistance around $166 with a very strong weekly candle.
This ascending triangle has a price target of around $214.25 but we may see a small pullback before continuation.
If we see a pullback I expect price to find support on the horizontal chart pattern boundary around $166.
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CRM - SALESFORCE - SHORT SETUP USING PUTSMETHOD: Short SALESFORCE {price at entry 156.40} via :
+2 CRM 20 DEC 19 160 PUT @4.40 ; Trading with 0.75 of extrinsic value, well in the money.
STRATEGIES: Using CRM day chart :
The 20/50 Mean started a crossing downward pattern, and we can look for a new red cloud to form for a short.
The Fisher Transform bounce signal has failed and is now showing a continuation short near a critical support price.
TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price :
STOP is price > 160
TGT1 153 scale; TGT2 148.75 to exit
Trail option price to Break Even once stock price < 154; OR consider scaling as red cloud becomes large
You may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take you out technically for whatever you get win or lose.
Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b
Palo Alto Networks - buying dip?FUNDAMENTAL
PANW earnings guidance lagged its forecast, creating a 12% decline after hours.
Palo Alto said that it has agreed to acquire Aporeto, a machine identity-based micro-segmentation firm, for $150 million in cash. The company said its earnings projections include net expenses related to the proposed acquisition.
TECHNICAL
Both the 50sma and 200sma are working as support after the earnings report took PANW 12% after hours.
The 50sma is also looking to break the 200sma. Crossing of the 50sma over the 200sma could be a bullish confirmation of a healthy uptrend.
Will enter position if we can stay above the SMA's and enter the channel, formed by the most recent gap.
**Next short-term resistance area --> $228-$230.
CRM - 2 Bullish Trade IdeasCRM acquired Tableau today and price dropped -4%. Patiently waiting for price to drop to $148.5 to enter two long trade positions. A tight stop loss just below the recent low makes for risk rewards of 6:1 and 11:1. I like the business industry, the product, and the team. The acquisition today was all stock, and Tableau will add around 2.5% ($400M) to their total annual revenue.
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM EARNINGS; QQQ, IWM, XOP, TBT, AAPL, TSLAEARNINGS
CRM (57/42) releases earnings on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's New York session.
Pictured here is an iron condor in the July monthly with the short options nearest the 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.61 at the mid price with break evens wide of the expected move at 133.40/171.60 with delta/theta metrics of -.89/2.27.
As of Friday close, the June 7th weekly to July 19th monthly volatility contraction is from 61.8% to 39.0% or about 41.5%.
Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (38/21)
QQQ (36/23)
IWM (36/22)
SPY (37/19)
EFA (29/17)
The EEM July 19th 37/41/41/45 iron fly is paying just shy of 25% of the width of the longs (8-wide) at 1.99 and break evens of 39.01/42.99. Look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle.
QQQ is paying slightly more than one-third the width of the wings for the short option strikes nearest the 20's -- the 158/161/185/188: 1.01 credit, break evens at 159.99/186.01, delta/theta metrics of -2.66/1.49. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit.
The IWM iron condor nearest the 20 delta is the July 19th 133/136/154/157, with break evens of 135.01/164.99, delta/theta metrics of -3.27/1.43. 50% max take profit. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: TLT (65/13); USO (58/48); TBT (58/27); OIH (54/42); GDXJ (51/29).
The volatility in oil isn't a particular surprise. /CL (21/46) has been crushed from a late April high of 66.44 to a Friday session low of 53.05, leading to an OVX pop from the mid-20's to a Friday session high of 47.49, so it's an opportunity to sell premium in /CL, USO, or one of the closely correlated proxies like XOP (43/39).
TBT is at a 52-week low; TLT, a similar high with the yield on the 10-year T note yield cratering to finish last week at 2.142, so I could envision putting on a bullish assumption play in TBT either on the notion that we get some risk on post-May sell-off or that yield has bottomed in this vicinity (between 2.00-2.25).
A bullish assumption TBT short put in the July cycle at the 28 strike isn't paying a ton -- .43 at the mid, with a 27.57 break even and delta/theta metrics of 25.35/.85, but the more aggressive 29 pays .73 with a 28.27 break even and delta/theta metrics of 38.97/.96.
SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW
X (66/61): The July 19th 12 straddle is paying 2.00, 10.00/14.00 break evens, and a delta/theta metric of -2.66/1.99.
AAPL (51/33): The July 19th nearest the 20 delta iron condor, the 155/160/190/195 is paying 1.67 with 158.33/191.67 break evens, and a delta/theta metric of -1.88/2.05.
TSLA (51/73): Some of the volatility leaked out last week, but the nearest the 20 -- the 140/145/215/220 appears to be paying 1.92 at the mid, assuming you can get filled there, with markets showing wide ... .
CRM: xABCD formation completion, -30% downsidePotential xABCD formation at c.$154 which also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level of the XA leg. If we extrapolate an ABCD down, the downside projection would be c.$106 which coincides with the 2012 uptrend line. If you like MA crosses, CRM is in the throes of a death cross.
Another Textbook Market Cycle: Short CRMAfter an asset goes on an exponential run-up, it has a major correction. CRM looks poised to plummet over the next few months, as it has formed a very nice short opportunity here at $142. This chart is very similar to Bitcoin, in January of 2018.
CRM looks to be stopped out by the 100MA (white line) as well. It looks very similar to the S&P in early December, before its major plunge.
$CRM Bullish Channel - Unusual Options Activity$CRM Salesforce.com holding within what looks like a bullish channel for the last few months.
- Bullish options activity today with 15k $155.00 strike (OTM lottos trading for under $1.00 - Delta 0.11) Jan 18th 2019 call options traded for $1M in premium against OI under 5k. As well as 3.8k $135.00 strike (ATM - Delta 0.54) Feb 2019 call options traded for $3.3M in premium against OI just over 1k.
Price target based on channel trend lines = $153 by mid-January (which would mean I'm forecasting the $155 lottos will expire worthless)
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
CRM: Risk for Topping Due to RotationSalesforce.com has had a great run up from the 2015-2016 correction. CRM stock is now showing an extreme Angle of Ascent on the weekly chart and has risk of a potential topping action. Support is weak at the bounce area at this time. The stock shows steady rotation patterns as the final peak high developed. Rotation is the lowering of inventories of a stock by Dark Pools.