$acb daily-Falling wedge
-Volume as been anemic since may 21st
- if we see breakout 12.19 is first target then fibs will be price targets for upside/scale out
- will enter tomorrow on a break out above $11.10
CRON
OPENING: CRON OCTOBER/JULY 4/8 LONG CALL DIAGONAL... for a 3.00/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss on Setup: $300/contract
Max Profit on Setup: $100/contract (33.3% ROC)
Break Even: 7.00
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 75%
Notes: High background implied at 118% with plenty of opportunity to reduce cost basis via roll if it discontinues its grind up.
APHA Topping Out - For Now...The Cannabis industry has had a great run, but overvalued pig CGC put an abrupt hold to the recent rally with a desasterous earnings report, dropped without warning on a market that expected them to deliver in line with just 3 months ago. Snakes in the grass! A sell off was imminent anyways, with all that FOMO buying in the 3 days prior...
That said, APHA was due for healthy consolidation anyway, building up power for a move higher.
$4.30 resistance was broken, and has been holding as a strong support zone in the past week when bears attempted to drag her lower. We need volume to pick up if we want APHA to break through the current zone and try for $5. Indicators tell me this may happen first after a pull back.
APHA's fundamentals certainly support the current valuation, and this third largest Canadian LP trades at a large discount when compared to peers ACB, CGC and CRON.
Where to now?
The Bolliger Bands' middle line is currently running alongside the 100MA daily, both approaching previous key resistance $3.89. We should expect strong support here, should $4.30 be depleted. A bounce from $3.89 may see a run up to $5, but if $3.89 doesn't hold, then the current rally may come to an end, and APHA will be looking for a weekly higher low. Regarling the latter, there is a Bullish Cypher pattern in play right now, that becomes invalid when $5.30 upward is broken. I think we have to be very careful. My plan is to buy either a bull break, or as close to $3.89 as possible, in anticipation of a move higher, but with a tight stop, not to get caught in a bull trap...
Levels on watch ;-)
Are Pot Stocks Back? Potential Breakout OpportunityCRON has broken out of the descending triangle pattern (reversal) with a strong bullish candle (+21%) on 6/8/20. This is an interesting setup since the descending triangle chart pattern seemed to form at the end of the downtrend. Over the last several months pot stocks have gotten hammered. Some stocks even falling +90% during the bear market. The fundamentals are beginning to align, and general market sentiment has greatly improved. If sentiment remains positive, there is a possibility that CRON will continue to rally into election season. If there is a strong push for more states to legalize marijuana, then except additional momentum.
Daily Chart on $MJ Breakout or Fakout?The MJ Sector has been down-trending since March of 2019, still has yet to see a real bounce with a solid continuation. As of May 2020 it looks like we are ready to bounce but still, I am weary that they will do another fakeout breakout.
Anyhow, I am expecting MJ's price to eventually break above these down-trending lines. They are still rejecting the price down, so we could see a pullback or a breakout above the down-trending lines as it looks like we are squeezing once again.
Anyhow GLTA & Collect those sweet dividends.
ACB UpsideAs shown on the chart since erly October,ACB has been traded below the green trend line on the daily. It finally broke above it this week,but follow through is yet tobe confirmed.
On the macd side, divergence has been building up since early October too as shown by the green trend line. It is important to note that since the middle of May 2019, MACD has always been below the zero line and the upcoming blowout earnings could be the perfect spark to push it upwards finally after a whole year.
RSI has also been moderately trending upwards too. Although it broke the upwards trendline for a couple of days during early March, it still has potential to be a viable signal to the upside. Also just like the MACD, since the middle of May 2019, RSI has been traded below the 50th mark except for a few head fakes.
All in all I believe the longs will finally be rewarded and if Aurora comes clutch with a equity based partnership deal we will definetely be seeing a 10-15bil market within this year.
TLRY 50? ESCAPING THE INELASTIC CHOKE FUTURE OF CANNABISGood evening Trading viewers,
I present to you my second analysis on weed stocks. Is it a voodoo or a complex set of modelers in background or a mystic play of my mind.
The infinity governance of time and space has played in part lower single digits.
The axiom quantification of price says tlry $50, is it possible?!!!
Stop loss 1$. We will see, maybe i am right or maybe i am wrong.
Three years from now we will see and ponder about magnification of the ideas.
Let the game begin
Ascending Triangle or Head & Shoulders?On the RSI there's a H&S patter so visible if I need to draw it I'm not sure you're familiar with a Head & Shoulders pattern.
What Is A Head And Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
Key Takeaways
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest.
A head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
What Does The Death Cross Tell You?
The death cross occurs when a short-term moving average (typically 50-day SMA ) crosses over a major long-term moving average (typically 200-day SMA ) to the downside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive bear turn in a market.
The opposite of the death cross occurs with the appearance of the golden cross, when the short-term moving average of a stock or index moves above the long-term moving average. Many investors view this pattern as a bullish indicator. The golden cross pattern typically shows up after a prolonged downtrend has run out of momentum. As is true with the death cross, investors should confirm the trend reversal after several days or weeks of price movement in the new direction. Much of the process of investing by following patterns is self-fulfilling behavior, as trading volumes increase with the attention of more investors who are driven in part by an increase in financial news stories abut a particular stock or the movement of an index.
Limitations Of Using The Death Cross
All indicators are “lagging,” and no indicator can truly predict the future. Once & while a death cross can produce a false signal, and a trader placing a short at that time would be in some near-term trouble. Despite its apparent predictive power in forecasting prior large bear markets, death crosses also do regularly produce false signals. Therefore, a death cross should always be confirmed with other signals and indicators before putting on a trade.
$CRON Close Encounters of the Six KindNASDAQ:CRON
Don't mind picking this up around $6. Been trading sideways since the beginning of November, but has traded around $6 six times since February of 2018. 6 for 6 at $6. Too many sixes if you know what I mean. So does it go for a 7th time? I'll sell naked puts at $6 until then.
ACB TILRAY NBEV CRON LONG SET UPBUY CRON ENTRY 1 $5.15 ENTRY 2 $5.50
SL $3.00
TP.1 $7.15
TP.2 $9.00
TP.3 $13.20
BUY ACB ENTRY 1 $1.30
TP.1 $2.00
TP.2 $4.00
TP.3 $6.00
BUY NBEV Entry 1 $1.68
entry 2 $1.28
Tp.1 $2.48
Tp.2 $3.48
Tp.3 $5.00
BUY TILRAY ENTRY 1 12.80
ENTRY 2 11.60
SL 8.00
TP.1 16 TP.2 19 TP.3 23
TP.4 28 TP.5 46
CRON Buy and HopeI rarely do Buy and Hope, but today, I am hoping for a bounce from yesterday's low, signalling that a weekly higher low is in. This seems to be a decent supply zone, but broader industry sentiments are still tough.
Averages signalling underlying weakness, but when sentiments change, this stock should be testing $8 again in the coming days or weeks. Still, trying to catch a bottom is generally a bad idea.
Trade with caution!
HUGE BEAR VOLUME! WATCH FOR MARKET CORRELATIONTICKER: $CRON
CRON is basically the same as CGC. Huge bear volume on Friday with a 10%+ pull back. Bull flag has been negated and we are looking for a daily higher low compared to 6.38.
Watch for $SPY correlation as it will have a factor in the timing of the bounce. Also watch correlation with CGC and other canadian MJ names. Remember, RSI levels could get to extremes if market pulls back hard.
CRON above resistanceWe're likely to see a retest of the area of resistance, to confirm if we have a S/R flip. If resistance indeed turned support, the stock is a buy in my opinion, likely to retrace to the green channel, before probably looking for a weekly higher low.
Looks like a possible break out. 35% of the float is shorted. If the bulls remain in charge, they're going to take some of that bear money back.
CRON Key Level Broken| Increase In volume| EMA Cross Quick update on CRON, which has broken a key resistance level, now potential support upon retest
Points to consider,
- Trend change with Higher High
- Structural resistance broken
- RSI diverging
- Stochastics in upper regions
- EMA’s support
- Volume increasing
Higher high has come to fruition; this is the first time in CRON’s bear trend, signalling a potential reversal.
Structural resistance broken, now support upon a confirmed S/R flip retest. Stochastics in upper regions can stay here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the downside.
RSI diverging, confirming a bullish divergence as CRON puts in lower lows. EMA’s cross bullish, first time this has happened in the downtrend for CRON.
Volume is visibly increasing confirming a technical level is being tested, this needs to sustain for a bullish continuation.
Overall, in my opinion, CRON has healthy volume coming at key resistance now potential support. A continuation is probable, confirming the macro trend change.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember
“There is a huge amount of freedom that is derived from not fighting the market.”
― Yvan Byeajee,