The chart is a battleground, revealing who got crushed!In the early days of exchange trading, there was no technical possibility to visualize market quote movements, and traders analyzed ticker tapes. The real hype and massive interest in exchange speculation owe it to the technical possibility of displaying exchange information in the form of charts with ticks, bars, candles, and other more exotic ways of displaying price movements (Renko, Kagi). This led to a rapid growth of various schools of technical and graphical analysis. Just Google it, and you'll be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of info out there. It's like, every chart can be interpreted in a million ways, and three analysts will give you four different opinions on the same chart. It's crazy!
But after 15+ years of trading, I've come to realize that the essence of graphical analysis is all about finding the "suffering" market participants. Classic patterns make it easy to spot areas of market activity and where traders are piling in. I'll give you some examples, backed by data from open sources, that'll show you just how predictable retail traders can be.
Now, I know some experienced traders might say, "Patterns don't work, and this knowledge isn't enough." But I call BS - patterns do work, and the real question is who's extracting the most value from them? Of course, interpreting market patterns is just one piece of the puzzle.
Here's an analogy: think of experienced hunters preparing for a hunt. They don't just wander around looking for prey; they identify the habitats, study the location, and track the animal's migration paths. They have a plan, limited time, and the right gear to get the job done.
It's the same with pro traders with really big money. They plan and execute their strategy, using the behavior of less-informed participants in certain "hotspots" that attract retail traders like magnets. It's simple: a a newbie sees a market situation that looks just like one from a technical analysis book, and they're like, "Ah, I've got this!"
Alright, let's take a look at the current situation with the Euro. I've got a screenshot with the average long and short positions of retail traders marked on the chart. It's a 1-hour time frame, which is probably the most popular one, right? Think about it, why is this time frame so popular? The data is from an open source, as of Friday evening. Take a minute to study this chart. What catches your eye?
Let's zoom in and add some lines and arrows. Voilà! What do we see? The average long and short positions of participants (from the open source) almost perfectly match the breakouts of local highs and lows. This is what's called "trading the breakout" in the books.
We can make an intermediate conclusion: the "bulls" were encouraged to open positions and got stuck in a losing zone, while the "bears" are celebrating their victory, as the market is favoring them and they're in a small profit. In other words, the market sentiment is bearish.
Woohoo, case closed, let's go to short the Euro now!
And yes, and no! The Euro quotes have been below the average short position of traders since June 14th, for two whole weeks, inviting everyone to start shorting. Even a blind "bull" can see it's time to switch sides). Here are some more numbers from the open source: short positions on the Euro decreased by 11.55% last week , while bearish positions grew by 8.55% . These are broker-aggregated data, no insider info here. You can find them yourself if you put in some time and effort. These numbers, as you understand, confirm our hypothesis that this "shorting invitation" didn't go unnoticed.
Now, in the context of this article, think about it: "Will the 'Hunters' take advantage of this situation?" Or will the market take us all for a profitable ride? Oh boy...
Let's look at the current situation with the Yen. It's a 1-hour chart with opened buys and sell levels marked.
What can we conclude: a massive bearish candle clearly encouraged a lot of short positions to open, while the "bulls" opened at the upper range boundary during its test, and the market is favoring them, while the bears are suffering. But what's even more important, they're not just suffering, but also reversing the market. According to open data, the number of open short positions grew by 14.09% last week . Good luck to them in this tough business! However we should remember that short positions are closed at a stop-loss by "market buy" orders, which gives an impulse for further growth.
What do I want to convey with this article, what do I want to share with you, mates?
Evaluate market sentiment through the prism of "suffering" participants - that's, in my opinion, the best indicator!
Usefully utilize information from open sources about retail positioning, there's a lot of value in it.
Try to look at the chart with the eyes of a "hunter", search for traps set. Make such analysis a necessary part of your strategy to gain an edge, without which trading on markets is like playing "roulette".
It's a journey, folks. Some get it earlier, some later, but eventually, most traders come to realize they need to "dig deeper", learn more about market mechanics, and improve their strategies. It's a painful process, but it's worth it.
So, don't give up! Get back on your feet, and try again. As 50 Cent said: Get rich or die trying!
