Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
CRPTOCURRENCY
Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
XRP moonshot?Since April 2021 XRP has been banging on the 2/1 Gann failing time and time again.
In the last three years we hit the 2/1 Gann 5 times and failed to break it , this monthly candle is extremely bullish and we have reached the apex of this Gann triangle, the chances are we break to the upside.
Since March 2020 we have been printing lower highs on the monthly without fail.
Stoch RSI monthly buy.
Bar pattern fractal from 2015 repeating.
Very high chance here XRP breaks 2/1 this time round , there is a lot of momentum.
CULT DAO x5-x10?Cult Dao confirmed buy signal on the stoch RSI weekly last night , longing this signal last few years as resulted in fairly large moves , we did get a false signal July 2023 but high chance we have another run at the moment.
What is interesting is that alot of charts putting in the same lower higher structure.
COIN: Support and resistanceMay be we all should get ready for the next bull run in 2024 and 2025.
When BTC goes above 40k, the stocks related to crypto will just go crazy.
This chart is just a representation on where to take profit and where to buy.
I guess COIN might hit the ATH by mid of 2025.
First crypto second capitulation then create a base and then halving and then enters bull run.
Hope COIN will not get into controversy or bankruptcy and make future millionaires.
See you in 2024 and 2025.
Cheers
Bitcoin Outlook 2024It's been a while since I posted something on TradingView, mostly because there has been nothing going on for months now. However, I believe we are coming into a major pivot point for Bitcoin.
In the past, when Bitcoin consolidates at previous all-time highs, it's a strong sign that we are entering a Bitcoin bull market. But this time, it seems, at least for now, that the tide has turned to the downside.
The main chart above shows the most important macro trendline to follow right now, with multi-year support and two major cycle lows put in on this trendline.
If we take a look at my lay lines and Fib time zones, you can see why I think the 2024 outlook is going to be more downside. A new time cycle will start sometime around December 2024, which matches with the lay lines also.
A very important Time Fib, which I have been using for years, starts this month.
As you can see, it is powerful at predicting pivot points. Unfortunately, last year it failed for the first time in predicting anything, so let's see what happens this month.
As you can see from the model, Bitcoin has failed to close above the last band. This last band shows the last phases of Bitcoin cycles.
MACD BEARISH CROSS 2W
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
It is important to note that even though we have crossed bearish on the MACD, we need to wait for it to confirm in 10 days as of this post, which would be the close of this current 2W candle.
STOCHASTIC RSI
We have officially gotten a sell signal on the monthly. Two moving averages have closed under the 80 level. In 2021, this again was a false signal; we rallied for months while moving averages kept moving down.
Mayer Multiple Band
Completely broken down from the yellow band. The next band is at 43k.
My indicators
This shot is showing Heikin Candles. As you can see, it's pretty good at calling tops , its not perfect , but considering this is a real-time signal, it is very powerful. This signal will confirm in 27 days, though.
Same shot but using Japanese candles. As you can see, we have two sell signals up here on a monthly timeframe. As soon as I saw the second one, I knew already that the outcome was most likely down.
CME GAP STILL OPEN
Let's not forget that the CME GAP at 20k is still open. That is a 60% drawdown from where we are now, which would take us down to 20k where the CME GAP is, which is in line with the 2W candle MACD bearish cross average drop.
Conclusion
There are so many sell signals right now, and these sell signals are on monthly and 2-week timeframes. We are talking about huge momentum here.
My view is we go down for the rest of the year until December 2024, when rate cuts come in and the bull market starts until September 2025. After that, blood.
Anything is possible. A black swan event would take it down to close the CME GAP most likely. Remember, anyone who was here in March 2020, we dropped 63% in about 20 days.
Alikze »» ALICE | Pullback to broken structureIn the daily and weekly time, it has been moving in a descending channel, after the bottom formation in the 0.64 area, a motivational wave has started, which is now facing selling pressure in the supply area after the sub-swing break.
🔰 Therefore, this correction can be a pullback to the green box area, which can face demand in the green box area and continue the upward trend until the next supply area.
⚠️ In addition, if the green box area is broken, the correction can continue until the specified area, which will be a little difficult to continue the upward path.
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📈BNB Market Analysis: Potential Long and Short Positions✅🔍As Bitcoin experienced a notable downturn today, catching many traders unaware, it's imperative to reassess market conditions and identify potential trading opportunities. In this analysis, we'll delve into the intricacies of Binance Coin (BNB) and explore various factors shaping its price action.
💎Binance, being one of the most reputable digital currency exchanges globally, serves as a pivotal platform for traders worldwide. Its reliability and extensive range of services, including the renowned Launchpad feature, where users can participate in token sales by staking BNB, make it a preferred choice for many traders.
🔄In the 4-hour timeframe, we observe a recurring resistance zone between 617 and 656, which has been tested multiple times. Interestingly, each test resulted in a higher low, underscoring the increasing buying pressure within the market. Furthermore, the primary support established during this period lies at 517, encapsulating the range between 517 and 617. Adhering to our trading strategy, it's crucial to exercise caution within this range, managing positions with risk-to-reward ratios of at least 2 to ensure long-term profitability.
📊Volume analysis reveals a recent surge in selling pressure, particularly evident in the higher volume accompanying bearish candles. However, the overall volume trend indicates a decline, potentially susceptible to manipulation by larger market participants. As a result, while SMAs are temporarily disregarded due to the ranging market, RSI remains a pertinent indicator, offering insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions.
📈Moving on to potential triggers for long positions, the primary resistance at 600 warrants attention. However, given the current range-bound nature of the market, traders should temper their expectations regarding risk-to-reward ratios. Instead, emphasis should be placed on swift profit-taking and efficient position management.
📉Conversely, short position triggers at 576 and 543 are within the confines of the range-bound market. Thus, traders must exercise prudence, focusing on timely profit-taking and risk mitigation strategies. The critical short trigger at 517 signifies confirmation of rejection from ATH, potentially heralding a downtrend in the 4-hour timeframe.
📝In conclusion, Binance Coin (BNB) presents a nuanced landscape for traders, characterized by recurring resistance and support levels within a range-bound market. By employing meticulous risk management strategies and leveraging key triggers, traders can navigate market fluctuations effectively, maximizing profitability while mitigating potential losses.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
📈Analysis for Potential Long and Short Positions in ENS✨🔍Today's market position offers a pivotal moment, potentially setting the trajectory for the next 2-3 months. Following a minor downturn yesterday, altcoins have once again approached the lower end of the trading range. This juncture demands vigilance, especially considering potential short positions upon breaking support levels to avoid missing out on market movements.
🔄Bitcoin has activated its trigger yesterday, signaling market activity. Therefore, I've identified ENS (Ethereum Name Service) as a coin still holding its support. ENS allows users to convert Ethereum addresses into unique NFTs, simplifying transactions. Feel free to send any funds to my address parham96.eth; it's my pleasure to receive them!
✅Utilizing price action analysis with a classical approach, focusing on breakout patterns, I've conducted an analysis on ENS.
💎A Fibonacci retracement from the previous downturn indicates a correction to 61.8%, suggesting diminished downward momentum.
A range box has formed between 0.618 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels, with a ceiling at 16.8 and a floor at 14. This range has tested the 0.5 level twice, forming a Head and Shoulders pattern with neckline support at 14 and a potential first target at 12.45.
During range-bound trading, closing positions at risk-to-reward ratios of 2 or 3 is advisable, building a foundation for risk-taking in future trends.
Confirmation of trend reversal can be sought through RSI, with a break below 31.47 signaling potential significant price movements.
For long positions, a risky scalp entry can be considered upon breaking 14.39, with risk-to-reward ratios emphasizing conservative targets.
RSI confirmation below 42.63 can further validate the signal.
📈For long positions, entry confirmation is contingent on increasing buying volume, ensuring logical market participation.
🛒If ENS appears promising to you, please leave a comment for analysis feedback. Moreover, if there's considerable demand for spot buying analysis, I'll provide daily or weekly timeframe analysis for your convenience.
⚡️This analysis aims to equip traders with insights for potential positions, emphasizing risk management and strategic entry points in ENS trading.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
BTC/USD rising towards 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance?Price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 61939.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 63139.51
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 59040.34
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ETH/USD potential bearish dropPrice has just rejected off a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially fall to our take profit.
Entry: 3249.60
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3430.18
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2905.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ETHUSDT→ at the bottom!hello guys...
as you can see, this coin is in the bottom line of the broken ascending channel and the descending channel at the same time!
it is a great chance for the price to start another upward movement! but if the orange area is broken up.
so you can put a stop limit order for a long position that if the price engulfs the 3305 area then your long position will be active!
but if the orange area will not break then the price will break down the ascending channel to reach the 2540$ area!
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Could BTC/USD reverse from here?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67881.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 71339.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 59740.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Chainlink What Now?Is this move a surprise not really if you been following my Chainlink ideas.
Published in February warning traders that giant rising wedge had formed and the target of that wedge is back to the top of the massive range at 8-10 dollars.
March 18th we got a bearish cross the MACD , this was another signal of things to come.
On the LINK/BTC we can see that we hit the exact bottom of June 2023 lows when Chainlink hit 5 dollars and completed its wave 5.
We also have this very important date coming up with LINK , which is April 22nd 2024 or more like the week instead a specific day. This Fib time sequence has predicted Chainlink event for years with 100% succuss rate , check it out below
We once again get to see if proves to show us something of value.
On the Main chart above you can see this time fib sequence once again showing pivot points on the weekly , showed us all time high , June 2023 low , I mean simply amazing sequence here apart from 3.618 in grey you can see failed to produce anything special.
Even though the target for the rising wedge is 9-10 dollars I would link to see LINK hold the 1/1 Gann Fann right now its sitting right on it so we don't want to see a close under that would be pretty bad to close under the 1/1 again.
Chainlink Giant Rising Wedge formed.Rising wedge target is back to top of chainlink accumulation range at 9.3.
Clear rising wedge pattern with two touch points top and bottom.
We are coming up to the Chainlink fib sequence I have been using for years it has a 100% win rate at predicting Chainlink events , major moves , bottoms or tops.
Last Fib time hit was the Big move down in May 2022 marked a major bottom for LINK. Next one is April 22nd 2024 and anything can happen for LINK around this time , its interesting also that it lines up with the Bitcoin halving.
LINK/BTC
Link has failed to break this level time and time again and until this level is broken I don't think we will see a major move for LINK.
It is possible that coming in 22nd of April we get a big move down for on LINK/BTC to test the 1/1 Gann fan again, yellow circle you see on the chart.
If thats the case then expect a major move down the fact that we are forming such a massive rising wedge with only 60 days from the next count is telling.
I also get a two different Fib time dates on 22nd April the one use see above is completely different start and end points yet the 618 falls on the same date.
Maybe LINK breaks the resistance on this date and moons or maybe it crashes and bottoms , who knows! all i know is that the next date after Aprill 2024 is May 2027 so best be ready for anything .
Bitcoin RoadMap 2024/2025The thesis I will present today will go over the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its first cycle over a longer length of time. There are a lot of theories on where Bitcoin is going next, and it's been interesting seeing so many different perspectives.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle?
The first cycle is a interesting one , we had two tops, one big move followed by a 75% correction and after 231days we put in a higher high.
Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it.
The fact is there is not much room left from here , if Bitcoin repeats the same move and time then we looking at July at around 113k for a major 2024 top , for over 500 days now Bitcoin has been moving 100% every 120-140 days with the last move only taking 50days.
What is interesting is it took 1200days from Pi cycle cross to cross , if it repeats the next cross is in July and a my projected cross which will most likely not be very accurate since moving averages will move a lot depending on price but late October 2024 would be the cross.
Monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been in history coming back into all time high.
2Week RSI putting in nearly perfect lower highs since the start.
Bitcoin all time high consolidation pattern looking like it did last cycle in 2020 when it was back at 20k.
Looking over at my time cycles , it takes 1400days from cycle top to top this would put a cycle high in September 2025 from November 2021. It also lines up with my time fib in September 2025.
Elliott wave indicator is flashing a wave 5 both of NAS100 and Bitcoin , as you can see by going back in time its not 100% perfect and calling the top but pretty close most of the time , as you can see last cycle it was off by 3 weekly candles.
We are making lower highs on the Weekly and higher highs in price so bearish divergence could be forming here.
stochastic RSI pointing down and MACD histogram printing two lighter colours but as you can see stochastic last bullrun we were going down the entire time Bitcoin was going up.
Conclusion
There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run.
This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025.
Ethereum to reach $4800 ATH?Hello Traders, Skyboxpips here!
Ethereum and Bitcoin had a strong bull run from feburary.
Ethereum experience a resistance level at the $4100 level which mean sellers are holding this level. There is an imbalance and anticipate Ethereum to reach that $4100 level in hopes of a breakout to the top-side so we can go test that $4,800 All time High
XRP, the Sleeping Giant Looks good!! could it ready to Breakout?Technical Analysis: #XRP (Monthly Update)
#Ripple coin is now trying to break out of the 1065-day accumulation zone, if it could, this is just the beginning of a new uptrend.
#Rpple Coin is almost ready to takeoff and looks too bullish, if march closes upper the trend line so will be ready to test its previous high and make a new ATH at year-end or earlier.
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📈 FTM - Testing Range Resistance for Potential Breakout! 🚀
🔄📈 FTM (Fantom) Trade Analysis - Testing Range Resistance for Potential Breakout! 💹🚀
📊 Technical Overview:
FTM (Fantom): Testing top of the range resistance at $0.4025.
Scenario 1 (Breakout): Potential entry if it breaks and converts $0.4025 into support.
Scenario 2 (Retrace): Entry if it retraces and retests around $0.3750.
Stop Loss: Scenario-specific stop losses.
Take Profit: Next resistance levels at $0.45 - $0.48 and $0.55 - $0.60.
📈 Trade Strategy:
Scenario 1: Entry after breakout confirmation.
Scenario 2: Entry on retracement and retest.
Risk Management: Tailored stop losses for each scenario.
Take Profit: Targeting next resistance levels.
🚨 Note: Market conditions and Bitcoin movements may influence FTM. Trade cautiously! 🔄🚀 #FTM #TradeAnalysis #Cryptocurrency 📊💹