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Bitcoin 4hr Setup Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback, having dropped 2,000 pips over the past seven days. Several key factors are converging around the $60,000 level, making it a critical area of interest. These factors include the psychological round number of $60,000, previous market structure, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and the presence of both an upward and a downward trend line intersecting near this price. Additionally, there's a notable rejection point in this vicinity. Given these confluences, I anticipate a reaction around this level, potentially leading to further downward movement. Bitcoin Daily Chart Bitcoin is showing several confluences on the daily chart around the $60,000 level. After a 1,000-pip rally without any significant pullback, a retracement seems likely, as the price may need to dip before resuming its upward momentum. This time, I anticipate that Bitcoin might close below the 200-day moving average during the pullback. However, once it completes this downward move, I expect the price to eventually close above the 200-day moving average and begin a climb toward the top of the current channel.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ChartStrategist
BTCUSD Analysis (13th April 2024)Crypto Analysis (13th April 2024) BTCUSD Analysis On the Daily Timeframe, Price action has created a Huge dump due to the 800+ Million Liquidation across multiple different exchanges. Nothing fundamental changed about BTC just yet. Just the usual happenings in the crpyto space. Price has reached a daily orderblock and has shown strong rejections from that key area and closed the daily with a strong bottom wick indicating rejections. There are 2 scenarios i see playout. 1) Price has just flipped the new daily candle after creating another huge bottom wick, Buys from here at 67602 is possible to come up to fill the clean candle on the left caused by the sell off. I want to see at least 69252 be tapped. 2) Price fails to hold, breaking the bullish daily orderblock at $64572. Once we see a body candle closure below that level, Sells are alot more likely to occur and i will look for a break and retest set up for shorts to target $60,000.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by CallistoFX
XRP MOONSHOTXRP right now is following history pretty closely. As you can see from the main chart, XRP is potentially mirroring the same fractal formed back from 2013-2017. If history repeats, there will be a massive breakout for XRP. There is quite a bit of evidence to support this. First of all, the multi-year symmetrical triangle that has formed just like in 2012. It's taken years to form, but here we are in 2024 at the apex of it. Within the triangle, even the fractal looks the same. You can see marked out points inside. [Link 1: MACD on the weekly is showing the same histogram readings as back then, with three big waves, two small, then a bullish cross on the MACD. Exactly the same has happened right now. Bitcoin had just touched an all-time high again and had a pullback. It is at this moment XRP had its moonshot. Tell me, what are the chances we have now formed a second multi-year triangle and it just happens that Bitcoin has broken all-time high at the apex? The stars and planets seem to be aligning once again. It's just a matter of time before some big news comes out and this slingshots. seem to be pretty crazy targets all around for the XRP community lol. No idea where they're coming up with hundreds of dollars price targets, but if you would have a mirror move, then yeah, $575. The chances it goes to $575 this bull run are under 1%, let's be honest. The money required to get a mirror move is insane. So, a more grounded target this run would be a max of $10-14, with the first wave hitting $3-5.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Sporia
8
Cryptographic Truth (Chainlink)I know the chart looks ridiculous; it's hard to visualize such crazy vertical moves, but we have to follow history, and so far, we are still mirroring the last link bear market. When you go back and spend time analysing Chainlink movement, you can you see that all of the big moves happen within a 40 day window, yep thats it 40days, extreme volatility and then its over in a blink of an eye. Lets go back from the very start of Chainlinks history, well atleast to where the Coinbase chart starts. 2017 The first ever big Chainlink move from start to finish happened in just 40days. 2019 The second big move chainlink did lasted just 46 days and it was over , as soon as we broke the range we launched straight up to the 3.618. 2020 The next move higher was again the same break of range 41days till top. 2021 We also did something similar here we broke the range and within 30 days we break all time high again , then kept on pushing higher during the bull market for the blow off top. As you can see when chainlink breaks this range it could just be 40days of "only "up" and then its over. For the past couple months I have been following this bear market fractal that played out of chainlink last cycle. Its been close , very close , even now the last pullback was nearly the same . So if the pattern continues to play out Chainlink will break out of the range October which lines up with "smartcon". In the last TA about chainlink I went over all the past Octobers and saw that there has only been one October that chainlink has finished in the red , just when it got listed. Oct 2017 -55% Oct 2019 +49% Oct 2020 +28% Oct 2021 +19% Oct 2022 +2.75% So where does it go once the range its broken, thats the magic question if it repeats last cycle we talking about 170 dollars by January 2024. I think if there is a explosive move it will be back to all time high just under the 8/1 Gann Fann. My Eillot wave indicator is lining up with the 8/1 nicely and again the move would only last 40ish days Chainlink broke all time high four times before the cycle peak with Bitcoin, question is will it do it again.
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
19
Bitcoin (Gann Fan Update)Its a very important time for Bitcoin in my opinion , within the next 8-10days we will get a large move above or below the 1/1 Gann , for weeks now we have been holding just under it. Here is a zoomed in view on the daily. As you can see we reach this apex 24th of August 2023 , of course its also possible we trickle sideways above the 1/1 but historically breaking the 1/1 on Bitcoin during this part of the cycle we get some type of action. 2015 If we go back and take a look on how price reacted to the 1/1 we can see a lot of violent swings ranging from 25-40%. 2019 This year was had way more reactions to the 1/1 and almost everytime it resulted in fairly large swings , this time ranging 45-60%. 2023 So for this year we have touched 1/1 once and it was the local high of the year , candle closed right on it. 2/1 Gann and Time The bull market doesn't start until we break and hold support the 2/1 , the last two cycles it has taken about the same time 640days . So if it repeats Bitcoin would be somewhere around 36500 during this period. We also know it takes about 750 days from cycle low to reach previous cycle high. So that would be Bitcoin back at 69k sometime in December 2024. Conclusion If the cycle repeats the Bull market will start sometime August 2024 at 36500 and Bitcoin will reach previous cycle high at 69k December 2024 which would then make a new cycle high October 2025.
BNC:BLX
by Sporia
2
PSA#1 - Early 🤕(Crashing Warnings) for day and swing traders.This is a head's up to anyone who is a day trader or swing trader and wondering when and if it's going to crash, let me say this now. Please do me a favor and reframed from asking that cause I can't call it when the 4 hour chart is not at a peak high. This thing will kill your wallet in a day and take away over 30% or more of what you gained, but the best way for me to call it - is when it's at a peak high, no where else. I get it, you want to turn a profit with a day trade, take my opinion I will be giving a lesson soon on - but don't day trade with crypto, it's to volatile and can rapidly change in mere moments, so day trading crypto in my opinion is a death trap for your money. Swing trading however; has a better chance of making gains in this scenario. I try to warn everyone one day ahead of the suspected 4 hour chart and day chart crash, giving you time to save yourself from loses, I'm not always on point but the best I can do is warn you, it is up to you if you want to take the risk of selling. Once the day reach a peak high - it's coming down, I literally will warn everyone a day before - that drop is coming and there is hardly anything outside a whale or rally can do to stop it. This thing creates panic selling issues which adds on to the problem and makes it drop even worse. But once it starts to recover those that sold either get back in before it grows to fast gaining more shares in return, or miss out and be stuck with a lost. An even calling that can be hard to do when this 4 hour chart is rapidly crashing and a stopping point is just as hard to determine, you can over shoot the target for a rebuy or under shoot and take on loses with everyone else. So remember when the Day is announced as having a peak high and I see red on the 4 hour chart peak - be ready to sell and don't buy back in for at least 1 full trading day or even 2 - it'll be none stop crashing even with support. Anywho Happy Trading everyone.
by Grandmaster_Oz
BTC: Crypto Bull Market Appears to Take HoldCME: Micro BTC ( CME:MBT1! ) A month’s ago, I published a trade idea titled “S&P 500: Expensive but Not Overpriced.” The S&P index closed at 4,409.16 on June 16th, placing it at one standard deviation above the three-year mean (µ) of 4027.2 at the time. On July 14th, the S&P settled at 4,505.42, up 100 points and +2.2% within a month. Market data has confirmed my bullish assessment. However, higher prices also mean that the index is getting more expensive now and edging closer to the “overpriced” territory. The S&P reached its all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3rd, 2022. Current price level is just 5.7% below this record. It takes a lot to make the case for a new high. Everything needs to work out just right – inflation, employment, GDP, etc. It probably could happen somewhere down the road when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Meanwhile, there are “less expensive” financial instruments to consider if you are looking for ways to allocate your asset. On March 29th, I issued this trade idea – “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1”. Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. Bitcoin and ETH gained 71% and 39% in Q1, respectively. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets. On July 16th, BTC/USD closed at $30,394, up $2,300 since I wrote the report, and gained 83% year-to-date. While this year’s crypto rebound has been remarkable, spot bitcoin price is still -$38,395, or -55.8% off its record high of $68,789.63. Plotting BTC and E-Mini S&P 500 futures in a 5-year timeframe, we find that both reached their all-time high in the last two years. The S&P experienced a 20% drawdown last year, driven by high inflation and Fed rate hikes. It regained 26% from its October low when the fundamentals were reversed – lower inflation and the potential of Fed Pivot. Bitcoin followed the same general trend as the S&P but is more speculative in nature. Bitcoin rose ten times in one year, only to crush by 80 percent in the following year. Since its November low, bitcoin price has nearly doubled, but it is only halfway to its recent high. The Crypto Market Shrugged off its Biggest Fear In the March 29th trade idea, I expressed concern about the unique risk in the Crypto market – the failure of systemic important infrastructure that could doom the entire market. Last year, the collapses of stablecoin terraUSD, the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate sent spot bitcoin price from FWB:67K all the way to $16K. The entire Crypto market lost $1.4 trillion in market valuation. Last month, the SEC sanctioned the largest crypto Exchange Binance for violations of US securities laws. Bitcoin pulled back a few percentage points and then quickly recovered. Why the market reacted coolly this time around? Unlike the sudden demise of FTX, the SEC charges to Binance were well anticipated. Investors absorbed the news and took actions in an orderly fashion, escaping a market panic. In my view, investors have regained confidence in the crypto market, following all the turmoil. Supporting my view is Coinbase’ YTD performance ( NASDAQ:COIN ). The publicly traded US Crypto Exchange has received multiple regulatory charges and lawsuits. However, its stock is up 214% YTD. Coinbase reportedly had 108 million users in 2022, up from 56 million in 2021. The news headlines around BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF prospects boost institutional investor sentiment, too. Last Thursday, BlackRock's application to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF has been added to the official docket of the SEC as part of its proposed rule change process. The large investor base in both individual and institutional markets will be a big catalyst to lift bitcoin higher in a secular bull market. Micro BTC Futures CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is a low-cost trading tool to participate in the crypto market. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $760. What this means is a 400% leverage built in the futures contract. At market price of $30,235 per bitcoin, the $760 margin is equivalent to about 25% of the contract notional value of $3,023.50. Micro BTC is trading in US dollars that tracks the bitcoin price index. Both the initial investment and the returns are in dollar terms. Traders do not need to worry about the security of their Crypto wallet or forgetting their privacy key. While investing in the CME market, investors could rest assured that their money is free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
BTC/USD - SHORT SZENARIOS - ANALYSE – DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a further - final sell-off if necessary. -> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. table of contents - 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels. - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT . For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed -> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -. -> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing > As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. DEMAND ZONES | The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing -> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. SECOND PART . As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely). What speaks in favor of: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB" - "LIQUIDITY HUNT + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4) - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation - "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash 2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely) What speaks for this: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3) - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)" - downtrend lines serve as support + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4). - "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)" - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. CONCLUSION . At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! - Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) = The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time . -> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it . Thank you and a successful trading! The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
3
#ICP HAS BEEN Busy REALLY BUSY WILL IT LADDER up the way it came down probably not to new all time highs any time soon however I would not count this project out… They have been working hard… They don’t about the price, they award the developers for building with grants, they have so much going for them… they are the efficiencies are across the board compared to any other projects in blockchain technology today… these rate the facts… CURRENTLY THERE IS ETH BTC AND NOW ICP IN THERE OWN CATEGORIES. BTC USED TO BE FREE … ETH USED TO BE HKEX:10 WELL ICP is might be one of these technologies … DYOR DCA SAFELY…
COINBASE:ICPUSD
by Jonnycatx