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2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there. comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout. Invalidation is below 67.50. bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it. Invalidation is above 69.3. short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle. Quote from last week: comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken. comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 73 bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up. Invalidation is below 66.7. bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024. Invalidation is above 73. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions. → Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market. short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI OIL targeting the 1D MA200 at $76.50WTI Oil (USOIL) managed to close yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) despite breaking below it intraday. Even if we see a pull-back like September 25-26, Oil is more likely to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as since the August 12 High, the market is practically ranging between the Support and Resistance Zones. Our Target is $76.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Below 68 things get really spicy. Invalidation is below 68. bear case: Bears need a daily close below the bull trend lines (also head & shoulders neckline) for lower prices. First would be below 69 and second is below 68. If they manage that, market is free to test down to 66 and then 64. If the neckline breaks, measured move would be 59ish but that is very far fetched. Invalidation is above 72.7. outlook last week: short term : Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. → Last Sunday we traded 68.69 and now we are at 71.78. Decent outlook. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted bear gap
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI turns sharply lowerCrude oil prices were over 3% higher this week, but as i mentioned in my previous post, the risks remained tilted towards the downside following a 9% drop the previous week. Lo and behold, WTI has now turned sharply lower after testing broken support between $71.50 to $72.50 area in the last couple of days. At the time of writing, it was back to the $70.00 level, which, if breached decisively, could pave the way for more losses in the days ahead. Middle East tensions have slightly stabilized as Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran and has said it will not target its nuclear facilities. However, the situation remains volatile due to Israel’s ongoing operations in Lebanon, which has reignited concerns about disrupted oil supply. Meanwhile, the oil market is also cautious about a possible Trump victory in the US election, as his policy of boosting oil production could lead to oversupply and further price declines. by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again. comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely. Invalidation is above 72.3. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow. trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Gold is surging while Crude Oil is laggingHere is a ratio chart of Gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Crude Oil $USOIL. Historically you can see it goes to extremes. Especially in 2020 when crude oil went to zero (and negative). I cut that spike out of the chart so hopefully it shows here. When the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 hit, crude oil hit $140 and gold was low which set up the bottom of this chart on the lower-left. Crude was expensive and gold was cheap. The opposite happened during Covid when crude plunged and gold stayed relatively calm. These are generational trades that can make traders rich but they take too long for the average small investor to stay focused and take advantage of these setups. With Gold now at the upper end of the range of this ratio, it is time to start looking elsewhere to protect your wealth. Can this ratio continue higher? Yes, of course. I point it out as a starting point for your trading. If you are just getting long gold up here now, you need to understand where the historical range is for this ratio and decide if you want energy to keep you warm and let you travel or do you want a store of money. It is always a trade-off between the two. You can't live with only one of these commodities. Cheers. Tim 12:33PM EST, October 22, 2024
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by timwest
3
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think. comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line. current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78. key levels : 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises. Invalidation is below 70.4. bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls. Invalidation is above 74.2. short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds