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Crude-oil

Crude trader - closer to a mean reversion rally Having reached the double top target, we see that Crude is now 15% below from its 50 day MA - in the past 2 years we've been as stretched as 17% below this average before we saw solid mean reversion kick in - we are in oversold territory and that offers an elevated risk of short covering By way of flow, we now see 67% of open positions in crude are now held long by clients, so they see upside - the selling pressure seems to be supported and the buyers are having more of a say. Is price putting in a ST low? It seems to be the case - while we're yet to see momentum truly shift, it feels like the prospect of a squeeze higher has risen
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Pepperstone
WTI Further downside risk? Commentary: WTI crude: The sharpe sell-off on November 28th may have strengthened the case for further weakness in the short term (5-25 days), the November 28th opening at $76.60 and intra day low at $73.93 followed by a closing price which was below the previous day’s high (November 27th) could be confirmation for a resumption of the November 7th - November 28th downtrend. Current price is below the 20 and 50 day moving averages (bearish); MACD is below its signal line (bearish); multi-week lower tops and lower bottoms on price indicate a downtrend (dow pattern), therefore, short positions can be technically supported for a potential downside target near the $70 round number, provided price can remain below the $83.4 resistance. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SKILLING:XTIUSDShort
by Skilling
Crude Oil Continues To Slide Downward - $55~65 on target.Did you follow my research from late October/early November? So many people thought Crude Oil would climb higher on supply concerns (related to Winter/Europe). But here we are sliding below $75 (soon) and targeting the mid-$60s. My call from October was that we may see $64 to $67 as a base. Now, I'm thinking we may see $54 to $57 as a base. What is going to prompt demand for Oil when the world is struggling with post-COVID inflation and the US is in the early stages of a moderate recession? The post COVID commodities recovery phase pushed Crude well above $110 for a while, but now we are starting to transition back to "normal" in terms of true supply/demand. In my opinion, Crude will settle between $55 ~ $65, then attempt to find some support. Follow my research.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny
2
US OIl Trend Analysis 25/11/2022After Saudi Arabia denied a report that it was discussing an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies, there are now reports that they will promise additional measures to ensure oil market stability. Saudi and Iraqi energy ministers have been reported saying that there is an importance of working within the OPEC+ framework. as a consequence, oil rose in early trade on Friday despite the worries about Chinese demand and expectations due to the increase of covid in the nation: China's Covid infections hit record as economic outlook darkens.
TVC:USOIL
by OAurthor
Reseal on oil; BUY on crude oil DRAWDOWN THEN REBOUND ON OIL By Jahnae Braxton | Divine 3nergy Crude Oil fell a little more than 400 pips yesterday. Oil opened the day just around $79 a barrel on 11/21. Falling below $80 a barrel for the first time since a month prior on October 22. Price has reached over $90 a barrel in the month of November on the 7th. The last time it reached above $90 a barrel was October 7, 2022. A double bottom began to form last month, which was indicating a sell. The double bottom completed formation yesterday, October 21, 2022. Afterword’s, it immediately wicked off that demand zone and skyrocketed. The bullish momentum push was caused due to Beijing announcing they are experiencing Covid deaths. They haven’t seen Covid deaths in a few months. They are going back to COVID lock down procedures. This is bringing supply fears into oil. What also caused the surge in oil prices were rumors stated Saudi Arabia was going to raise oil production. Saudi Arabia has reported that they will not increase oil production. Oil production will continue with its 2 million barrels a day decrease that was decided last month and to continue to the end of 2023. OPEC plus meets on December 4 to decide oil production. This comes a day before the European Union ban on Russian imports is set to start. Along with a G-7 price Cap. I am estimating oil to reach the price mart of $83-$85 this week into next week.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FLong
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
WTI Crude Oil: Are we following BTC's previous top? 18/05/22 Shown is an overlay of Bitcoin's previous top ~$69k. We are showing very similar price action of a wide, heavy range at highs, with the micro lower highs on the underside signalling a continuation / blow off top spike is possible. Product supply is increasing from several refineries opening from maintenance alongside seasonal demand, allowing for the current upward pressure. Longer term problems for crude oil range from high consumer energy prices to a declining SP while $ strengthens. Several COVID spikes globally also once again pose a risk. This is a fractal that I have been keeping my eye on for quite some time, and is one that I have seen on several assets, across several timeframes.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by fvideira
8
A traders week ahead playbook – China and US CPI the core themesCore macro themes traders need to roll with: • China reopening plans – after Friday’s incredible moves will the market buy the expected early weakness? Consider copper had a 4 standard deviation move on Friday (+7.6%) and the HShares closed its best week since 2015. • Central bank divergence is even more pronounced – several central banks have underwhelmed on hikes and in some cases, there was a slight shift in the communication - we see expectations of synchronized tightening reduced and bank's actions are becoming far less aligned – this should cement the idea of trending conditions in the price action and certainly in FX markets • Light at the end of the tunnel – the Fed to step down the pace of hikes to 50bp in December – this week’s CPI data and the suite of Fed speakers may influence this pricing – but peak core inflation/peak rates remain a key theme • Has the USD peaked – are we in a distribution phase? • How much juice has this new bear market rally got left? Is the equity melt-up real? The week ahead playbook Most have their eyes on US CPI this week, but trading China reopening is also front and centre and causing some incredible moves across markets – aside from a number of unsubstantiated tweets focusing on a reopening, there are multiple focal points for traders to sink their teeth into, including: • The US audit (PCAOB) of Chinese companies is speculated to be ahead of schedule, which could lead to a favourable decision on whether to delist Chinese ADRs – • Talk that China is to tweak rules of international flights bringing heavily infected passengers into the country – this includes removing the 2-day negative PCR proof needed for incoming passengers. • Germany detailed that China would make the mRNA vaccine available to foreigners living in China • Medical officials lowering the level of concern on Covid’s long-term effects on health In essence, the news flow, while consistent, has largely been of limited substance - the market, however, has taken the comments seriously enough to cover shorts and initiate longs for the more aggressive traders. Rightly so, China's re-opening is a game changer as it would clearly help reduce global inflationary pressures and catalyse a low in the synchronized global growth slowdown. If we consider the USD ‘smile’ theory, increased demand from China and improved supply chains suggests reduced demand for USDs and play into a view that the USD is putting in the process of a top. Weekend news is perhaps not so inspiring with the official rhetoric pushing back on reopening hopes, with authorities vowing to maintain “unswervingly” its stringent Covid Zero policy – galvanised by the daily covid case count which is pushing 3500 new cases. It will therefore be interesting to see if we see a reversal in a number of the Friday moves – notably where we saw the yuan rally over 2%, copper +7.6%, AUD +2.9%. gold +3.2% and HK50 +5.4%. The HShares had its best one-week gain since 2015. These are incredible moves, but what seems apparent is the market is living in the future and starting to price in a higher probability of a reopening – even if it is staggered and likely to occur in Q1 23. With the Fed the standout, and almost lone hawkish central bank, it’s not all about the Chinese market (and its second-order derivatives – such as the AUD), but the key event risk of the week is the US CPI print – core CPI is what gains the central focus with the consensus at 6.5%, and with the market just so used to above consensus prints it would shock to see a below estimate print. As part of the risk assessment, I question how this print reconciles with current market sentiment – ask yourself, do we get a bigger move in the USD on a below-consensus core inflation print, or a gain in the USD on an above-consensus print? Positioning is always a factor here, and the extent of the beat/miss, as well as the components – my own view is risky assets rally harder on a 6.3% core CPI print than a 6.7% core print – I know many will disagree. Gold is front and centre partly because Friday’s monster 3.2% rally took price up to channel resistance and the top Bollinger Band– this will happen when the USD is smacked 1.8%, and US 5yr real rates move 11bp lower. Clients have started to build a net short position into this resistance zone. Europe and UK also look interesting – Europe equity indices are on a tear (even when priced in USDs), EU Nat gas prices are down 66% from the August highs – Italian 10yr BTP spreads remain contained vs German bunds at 2.16% – the downtrend in EURUSD - drawn from the Feb highs – looks to be over and despite a barrage of bad news over the last 2 months is still printing higher lows. There is a China play in EU assets, but the momentum in EU and UK100 equity indices looks real, although the move is becoming overbought and suggesting buying weakness may be the better play. SpotCrude daily is one to focus on, with price into the 7 Oct highs and making some power plays on Friday – a break of $93.52 naturally puts $100 back on the radar, but again while this reflects the China reopening expectations, a higher crude price isn’t perhaps what the world needs now. Rates Review – we look at market pricing for the next central bank meeting and the step up (in basis points) to the following meetings Other known event risks for traders to navigate this week • US Oct CPI (11 Oct 00:30 AEDT) – The market expects a 7.9% YoY headline print, and 6.5% core inflation – The core measure is the more important of the two and obviously the most important data point for markets right now. The question – as always - do we get the bigger reaction on a below consensus number or above?? Consider CPI has come in above consensus in 10 of the past 12 reports • University of Michigan 5–10-year inflation survey (12 Nov 02:00 AEDT) – No change is expected at 2.9%, but we’ve seen this miss consensus before and move markets • US midterm election (Tuesday) – the Republicans are expected to win both the Senate and House which as I put it in the playbook has implications for future fiscal policy and the debt ceiling – however, what if the polls are wrong and the DEMs get a bigger advantage? The USD could push higher – one consideration is the timing of the results and whether we get a full understanding on the day of the election or further out the week. • Central bank speeches – it’s a huge week ahead for central bank noise – we see 9 Fed speakers, 18 ECB speakers and 7 BoE speakers. In Australia, RBA deputy gov Bullock speaks (9 Nov 20:05 AEDT) • The ECB will publish its economic bulletin (10 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the forecasts could have a bearing on the perception of the ECB's economic projections due out in the December ECB meeting – could we be looking more intently at a recessionary forecast? • Japan Summary of Opinion (8 Nov 10:50 AEDT) – while the BoJ has held a consistent dovish line, the market will be watching to see if there are any hints at changes to its YCC policy in the future • China CPI/PPI (9 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – CPI is expected to drop to 2.4% (from 2.8%) – Covid policy remains the central focus, so this data point isn’t likely to move the yuan – we also get the money supply and new loans data this week (no set time)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
1
Fed may destroy Oil Demand - Stay CautiousAs soon as the US Fed shifted into rate increases - traders should have suddenly elevated their protection tactics. The Fed's objective is to beat inflation and remove the easy money mentality. In order to do that, they may have to break consumers, industry, global economics, and the general demand cycle for cars, homes, credit/debt, and more. What happens when the Fed raises rates to a point where the global economy comes to a crashing halt? Consumers react by pausing or stalling travel/spending plans - creating demand destruction for Oil, Lumber, and other commodities. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time before Crude Oil collapses downward, headed into a typical seasonal cycle (winter). I believe we may be entering a period of very dangerous demand destruction as the US Fed may have pushed rates too high (again). Stock up. Things could get really WONKY. Follow my research.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BradMatheny
CRUDE OIL EXPECTED RALLYRising US crude exports, indicator for increased demand, and weakening of the dollar helped for a price surge of WTI, which broke and close above the 12 days formed resistance on the 4H graph. The technical indicators are also suggesting a bullish movement, with MACD histogram above 0 line and rising and RSI above 50 neutral line. If this movement continues, the price of the instrument might try to reach levels of 93.8, but in the opposite scenario the price might test its previous support at 82.7 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
CL or UCO Oil Idea Oil going up. this is only the beginning. prepare yourselves. SPR drains stop after the November mid term elections. not a lot left in it anyways. production cuts, combined with a global energy crunch from a Green transition coming too early before viable technology. Great reset agenda. confluence of bullish ideas. DXY not cooling off until 118. Oil was only down so far to price in the recession. so many factors. 12-18 months of bull market coming for all commodities, still imo. not financial advice
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by xtreme965