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Crude-oil

Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
CRUDE break downCrude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The projected downside target of 70 is feasible, but possible for a stall/bounce at 75. The daily chart shows a decisive breakdown out of the support range, heading to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection target at 70. While most indicators are bearish, oddly noted that there is some volume divergence. This is the first hint that an underlying rally might be forming... more on this as it develops.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil Short term - bearish - Short Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. It will lose its usefulness and value in the next years.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by sfc95
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
CRUDE - now what?Initially, it appeared that Crude prices were very robust and strong. Then came a retracement after a lower high and formed a lower low, and it appeared weak (in the face of a looming recession. Missing the downside target, Crude actually appears that it found a base, just bellow the weekly 55EMA. Hint is mostly in the daily chart, where there is an obvious closed gap down, and as RPM accelerates upwards, the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The coming week, breaking above 92, and then 95 is important to establish a good effort to reach the daily 55EMA, estimated about 95 then. So Crude is expected to have some upside in the short term...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil (1D) Correction probably finished, Ready for Rally ? Hello Traders, Seems like Crude oil formed amazing 1:1 (A:C) Corrective pattern as setup for next Bullish Rally. So there could be several more months with prices and gains for miners. Also it could cause increase of Inflation and Electricity prices. I´m staying out of this market, because I really lack experience how to play it (Any advice in comments is highly appreciated). My best guess is to find some undervalued Oil Miners if its still possible. (well played with OXY Mr. Buffet)... Enjoy the markets and stay green ;)
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by LongevityContrarian
2
USoil or CRUDE oil will be in the hypeUSOIL, Crude oil will boost up from range. Trade moved in three directions according to our previous analysis. now new wave will be up from range 88-73 back towards new highest level of history. We are consistent with our previous analysis. We publish precise and compact information after careful consideration which give you quick glimpse for comparative analysis. Our aim is to deliver simple and compact information which can be used by beginner to give them brief understanding of trades without any complexity. if you have any question or want to ask about analysis of other pairs or you have any confusion about analysis then feel free to ask us. Don't forget to support by share your ideas and hit like and subscribe button. You can support us through coins donation for more frequent signals. Do your own comparative analysis before jumping into pool.
FX:USOILLong
by AussieLeader
Crude oil Some thesis: Oil is more than enough worldwide. Supply exceeds demand. Transition to electricity. Shale oil - another attempt to manipulate. Saudi Aramco - is the largest capitalization company in the world (another not a good signal for me). We can propose many fundamental arguments, but this is a virtual trading chart (little connect with the real life). It is a world of financial markets. There are a few arguments from financial markets: 1. Largest players in oil futures are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and City Bank. 2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars (petrodollar). Some people wanted to change the system. Now they are dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie, and possibly someone else. Therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. For example, now you can buy 2 barrels of oil per $100, and if the price is $20 you can buy 5 barrels. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $100 to $30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year about increasing oil production. As you understand, they do not participate in the formation of oil prices cause we see a chart of futures oil. All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened. 3. Most likely, they will use these instruments during the coming falling of the US economy. 4. We are moving in the downtrend channel. 5. Cycles. Best regards, EXCAVO
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EXCAVO
5
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement. At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again. The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover. Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Kaput-edSo... Crude appears to have kaput and broke down quite a bit. Changed outlook, and the triangle has been readjusted and immediate target at 84 for the week ahead; and lower to 70 if the downside momentum continues. With the long weekly candles (momentum), slicing through the weekly 55EMA, breaking down the support ranges, and alignment between the weekly and daily technical indicators; and in addition, a trend change pattern breakdown as well. These, together with this past week's breakdown, and the breakdown of the earlier triangle, more downside can be expected, as far down as 70. That is what the chart is telling right now... A very interesting, and admittedly, unexpected outcome for an energy commodity. Perhaps the spectre of a recession is that overwhelming.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
(D) WTI Crude Oil Critical JunctureAfter breaking below the 50 & 200DMA, there are two areas of local Support remaining for WTI Crude Oil. First one being the major trend formed by connecting the dips in mid-April 2020 and December 2021 and extending outwards. This trend also intersects the 61.8% Fib support nicely at around $88, which we are now approaching. The Fib retracement was taken from the start of the last local impulse at the Dec 2021 dip (around $62) to the last local high of $129.5, which occurred in early March of this year. I believe we are completing a 3 wave Flat pattern correction, which started from said local high. I am expecting to see a bounce for upside when the chart approaches this intersection (aka critical juncture) of the two supports, despite my expectations of upside in DXY. This would indicate Supply/Demand dynamics of Crude Oil would overrule a strengthening Dollar relative to other currencies. This also seems to be supported with RSI approaching Oversold region. If she decides to break below these supports, I am expecting to see a smaller time frame correction for downside (as shown by the dashed arrows). However, I am biased against this downside as I'm not seeing the long term Bear case for Crude Oil in context of the rising Demand vs diminishing Supply and Production of Oil in current markets. Only thing that would make me go Bear is if the Dollar strengthens faster than the demand for Oil, or somehow more Supply enters the market, or Oil price reaches the point of Demand Destruction. I don't think we are there yet based on evidence of increased demand for travel and with many countries building new roads and airports. Doesn't seem like we have reached the price of pain for the majority of people yet, and undeveloped markets that get priced out will revert back to coal, wood, and animal fat for energy, but only time will tell.
TVC:USOILLong
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
1