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Crude-oil

Crude Oil Short term - bearish - Short Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. It will lose its usefulness and value in the next years.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by sfc95
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
CRUDE - now what?Initially, it appeared that Crude prices were very robust and strong. Then came a retracement after a lower high and formed a lower low, and it appeared weak (in the face of a looming recession. Missing the downside target, Crude actually appears that it found a base, just bellow the weekly 55EMA. Hint is mostly in the daily chart, where there is an obvious closed gap down, and as RPM accelerates upwards, the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The coming week, breaking above 92, and then 95 is important to establish a good effort to reach the daily 55EMA, estimated about 95 then. So Crude is expected to have some upside in the short term...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil (1D) Correction probably finished, Ready for Rally ? Hello Traders, Seems like Crude oil formed amazing 1:1 (A:C) Corrective pattern as setup for next Bullish Rally. So there could be several more months with prices and gains for miners. Also it could cause increase of Inflation and Electricity prices. I´m staying out of this market, because I really lack experience how to play it (Any advice in comments is highly appreciated). My best guess is to find some undervalued Oil Miners if its still possible. (well played with OXY Mr. Buffet)... Enjoy the markets and stay green ;)
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by LongevityContrarian
2
USoil or CRUDE oil will be in the hypeUSOIL, Crude oil will boost up from range. Trade moved in three directions according to our previous analysis. now new wave will be up from range 88-73 back towards new highest level of history. We are consistent with our previous analysis. We publish precise and compact information after careful consideration which give you quick glimpse for comparative analysis. Our aim is to deliver simple and compact information which can be used by beginner to give them brief understanding of trades without any complexity. if you have any question or want to ask about analysis of other pairs or you have any confusion about analysis then feel free to ask us. Don't forget to support by share your ideas and hit like and subscribe button. You can support us through coins donation for more frequent signals. Do your own comparative analysis before jumping into pool.
FX:USOILLong
by AussieLeader
Crude oil Some thesis: Oil is more than enough worldwide. Supply exceeds demand. Transition to electricity. Shale oil - another attempt to manipulate. Saudi Aramco - is the largest capitalization company in the world (another not a good signal for me). We can propose many fundamental arguments, but this is a virtual trading chart (little connect with the real life). It is a world of financial markets. There are a few arguments from financial markets: 1. Largest players in oil futures are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and City Bank. 2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars (petrodollar). Some people wanted to change the system. Now they are dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie, and possibly someone else. Therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. For example, now you can buy 2 barrels of oil per $100, and if the price is $20 you can buy 5 barrels. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $100 to $30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year about increasing oil production. As you understand, they do not participate in the formation of oil prices cause we see a chart of futures oil. All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened. 3. Most likely, they will use these instruments during the coming falling of the US economy. 4. We are moving in the downtrend channel. 5. Cycles. Best regards, EXCAVO
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EXCAVO
5
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement. At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again. The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover. Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Kaput-edSo... Crude appears to have kaput and broke down quite a bit. Changed outlook, and the triangle has been readjusted and immediate target at 84 for the week ahead; and lower to 70 if the downside momentum continues. With the long weekly candles (momentum), slicing through the weekly 55EMA, breaking down the support ranges, and alignment between the weekly and daily technical indicators; and in addition, a trend change pattern breakdown as well. These, together with this past week's breakdown, and the breakdown of the earlier triangle, more downside can be expected, as far down as 70. That is what the chart is telling right now... A very interesting, and admittedly, unexpected outcome for an energy commodity. Perhaps the spectre of a recession is that overwhelming.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
(D) WTI Crude Oil Critical JunctureAfter breaking below the 50 & 200DMA, there are two areas of local Support remaining for WTI Crude Oil. First one being the major trend formed by connecting the dips in mid-April 2020 and December 2021 and extending outwards. This trend also intersects the 61.8% Fib support nicely at around $88, which we are now approaching. The Fib retracement was taken from the start of the last local impulse at the Dec 2021 dip (around $62) to the last local high of $129.5, which occurred in early March of this year. I believe we are completing a 3 wave Flat pattern correction, which started from said local high. I am expecting to see a bounce for upside when the chart approaches this intersection (aka critical juncture) of the two supports, despite my expectations of upside in DXY. This would indicate Supply/Demand dynamics of Crude Oil would overrule a strengthening Dollar relative to other currencies. This also seems to be supported with RSI approaching Oversold region. If she decides to break below these supports, I am expecting to see a smaller time frame correction for downside (as shown by the dashed arrows). However, I am biased against this downside as I'm not seeing the long term Bear case for Crude Oil in context of the rising Demand vs diminishing Supply and Production of Oil in current markets. Only thing that would make me go Bear is if the Dollar strengthens faster than the demand for Oil, or somehow more Supply enters the market, or Oil price reaches the point of Demand Destruction. I don't think we are there yet based on evidence of increased demand for travel and with many countries building new roads and airports. Doesn't seem like we have reached the price of pain for the majority of people yet, and undeveloped markets that get priced out will revert back to coal, wood, and animal fat for energy, but only time will tell.
TVC:USOILLong
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
1
20 Reason for sell OILUpdate 01/08/2022 1 Structure 3: Side ways Bear 2 imbalances : upper side filled Lower side target marked 3 Current Move1/2 : impulse 4 Entry TF : D1 4.1 ETF Structure: bear 4.2 move : impulse 5 Support Resistance: up side imbalance filled 6 FIB: trigger completed 7 candle Pattern: Momentum engulfing 8 Chart Pattern: M 9 Volume : 10 Momentum: just bear (RSi) using for Momentum Unconventional using 11 Volatility : compression near lower band (use Bollinger bands for volatility ) 12 strength: bull initial (ADX for trend strength 13 Sentiment : extremely bear Currency power index 14 Final Summary: hold entry and add one at close outside the band 15Buy /Sell/Wait : sell 16 Entry:90 17 Sl: 93 18 Tp: 70 19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:7 20 Excepted Duration : 30
TVC:USOILShort
by Optimum369
1
Energy CorrectionOver the first half of 2022, energy was a bright spot in markets. NYMEX and Brent crude oil futures rose 40.62% and 40.24%, respectively. The oil futures closed well below the March highs on June 30, with prices north of $100 per barrel. NYMEX natural gas futures moved 45.42% higher over the first half of 2022. The price was at the $5.424 per MMBtu level on June 30 and was over $6 in mid-June. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was at the $370 per ton level on June 30, 215.16% higher over the first six months of 2022. The nearby August contract was higher at $391 per ton at the end of last week. A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches Follow those trends until they bend Fossil fuel continues to power the world, and while oil has corrected, oil, gas, and coal remain at the highest prices in years. The XLE, a highly liquid ETF that holds shares of the leading US energy producers, refiners, and related companies, moved from $55.50 at the end of 2021 to $71.51 on June 30, a 28.8% gain. At $68.59 on July 15, the XLE continues to outperform the rest of the stock market in 2022 despite the 4.08% loss over the first half of July but still over 23.5% higher in 2022. The most diversified stock market index, the S&P 500, fell 20.58% over the first half of 2022, settling at 3,785.38 on June 30. The index was at the 3,863.16 level at the end of last week, significantly below the closing level of 4,766.18 on December 31, 2021. Crude oil prices corrected over the past weeks, but while the short-term trend has turned bearish, the landscape could support higher prices over the coming weeks and months. A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher during bullish trends and an elevator lower during corrections. The spike to the March fourteen-year high in WTI and Brent futures was an exception to the rule as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked the oil market and the world. The chart highlights the correction in the NYMEX crude oil futures market that took the price to a low of $90.56 last week, the lowest price since February 2022. NYMEX WTI futures for August delivery were at the $97.59 level on Friday, July 15. Brent futures have been trading at a premium to the WTI futures because they reflect the price of oil production from Europe, Russia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Brent futures also fell to the lowest price since February 2022 last week when they reached $94.50 per barrel. The nearby September contract settled at the $101.16 level on July 15. Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new As we learned in early 2020, when the pandemic took NYMEX crude oil futures to a record low below zero and Brent futures to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel, declines in crude oil often defy logic, reason, and rational analysis. Over the past decades, there are more than a few examples of drops that take prices far below analysts’ expectations before rebounding. The latest correction took the continuous NYMEX contract from $130.50 in early March to $90.56 last week, a 30.6% drop. Brent futures fell from $139.13 to $94.50, or over 32% over the same period. WIT and Brent futures have made lower highs and lower lows over the past four months. The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher Four factors could cause crude oil prices to eventually find a bottom and return to a bullish trend: The war in Ukraine continues to rage with Europe and the US tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Russian retaliation could cause embargos that create severe crude oil shortages, lifting prices. One of the factors weighing on oil prices is the Chinese economic weakness caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. When they end, the demand from the world’s second-leading economy and the most populous country could soar, running the oil bear into a charging bull. The US government continues to look elsewhere for oil production as policies address climate change. According to the US Energy Administration, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to the 485.1-million-barrel level as of July 8, the lowest level since 1985. The administration continues to withdraw one million barrels each day from the SPR. Eventually, the US will need to replace its reserves. There are few incentives for US and European oil companies to increase production in the current environment. OPEC and Russia have no interest in addressing climate change. The world continues to depend on fossil fuels, and alternative and renewable energy domination are decades away. With oil production and pricing controlled by Riyadh and Moscow, higher prices are likely after the current correction. While the oil price is correcting lower, the reasons for a bottom and a return to higher prices remain compelling in mid-July 2022. Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches In June 2020, US natural gas futures fell to a twenty-five-year low of $1.44 per MMBtu. The chart shows the rally in the US natural gas futures market that took the price of the continuous contract over 6.7 times higher by June 2022, when it reached the highest price since 2008 at $9.664 per MMBtu. Since then, the price corrected as it was around the $7 level on July 15. The last time natural gas futures were at this price in July was fourteen years ago in 2008. We are in the heart of the summer, which is the peak cooling season. However, the test for the bullish price action in natural gas will come in October 2022 through February 2023, when the peak heating season arrives. Meanwhile, US natural gas has become a far more international market over the past years, as US LNG travels the world on ocean vessels to locations where prices are much higher. The war in Russia creates natural gas shortages in Western Europe. The chart shows that UK natural gas never traded above the 2005 117 high until 2021. At the 200.290 level at the end of last week, the price was nearly double the previous record high after rising to the 800 level in March 2022. The US will struggle to fill Europe’s natural gas void created by Russian retaliation. As of the week ending on July 8, US natural gas inventories stood at 9.6% below the previous year’s level and 11.9% under the five-year average. US energy policy has weighed on natural gas output at a time when Europe is looking to the US to fill the gap created by the war in Ukraine. Natural gas shortages are likely in Europe this coming winter season. Follow those trends until they bend The short-term trend in crude oil has turned bearish, with the prices on either side of the $100 per barrel level. I expect lots of two-way price action in the oil and gas markets over the coming weeks and months. While natural gas remains a bucking bronco with wide price swings, crude oil is now in a bearish correction. Follow those trends until they bend as they are the best barometers of the path of least resistance of prices. Trends reflect the market’s sentiment. When sellers are more aggressive than buyers, prices move lower. When buyers dominate sellers, they move to the upside. As of Friday, July 15, the sellers were in the driver’s seat in the oil market. Time will tell how long they remain in control and how low they will push the price of the world’s leading energy commodity. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Andy_Hecht
3
Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2