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Crude-oil

WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc. There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare. At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again. This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!" And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe. In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers: WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support. Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position. A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly: All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging. And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom. If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be? Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone. But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above. Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges. Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today. The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls. The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal. So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is? Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it. And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66. But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows. And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level. In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it. It may start to come faster and faster. At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill. Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number." The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer. But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there. I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this. Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit. Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy. Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not. Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
CRUDE break downCrude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The projected downside target of 70 is feasible, but possible for a stall/bounce at 75. The daily chart shows a decisive breakdown out of the support range, heading to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection target at 70. While most indicators are bearish, oddly noted that there is some volume divergence. This is the first hint that an underlying rally might be forming... more on this as it develops.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil Short term - bearish - Short Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. Hello everyone, I put the Short and take profit areas. It is a short-term chart (15min time frame), but it is not too complicated. It is possible to have a price maintenance between 80-96 area in the following weeks, having an average growth on Crude Oil in September, but from November things do not look too great. It is most certain that we will see Crude Oil at a very low price in the spring of 2023. Attention, in the following months, do not buy between areas 80-96+ They are dangerous areas, much overrated. Good long-term buying areas are from 40-50-60 (the best being just below these prices) Crude Oil in a few years will trade below 20eur/barrel, so it is not a good long-term investment. It will lose its usefulness and value in the next years.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by sfc95
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
CRUDE - now what?Initially, it appeared that Crude prices were very robust and strong. Then came a retracement after a lower high and formed a lower low, and it appeared weak (in the face of a looming recession. Missing the downside target, Crude actually appears that it found a base, just bellow the weekly 55EMA. Hint is mostly in the daily chart, where there is an obvious closed gap down, and as RPM accelerates upwards, the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The coming week, breaking above 92, and then 95 is important to establish a good effort to reach the daily 55EMA, estimated about 95 then. So Crude is expected to have some upside in the short term...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil (1D) Correction probably finished, Ready for Rally ? Hello Traders, Seems like Crude oil formed amazing 1:1 (A:C) Corrective pattern as setup for next Bullish Rally. So there could be several more months with prices and gains for miners. Also it could cause increase of Inflation and Electricity prices. I´m staying out of this market, because I really lack experience how to play it (Any advice in comments is highly appreciated). My best guess is to find some undervalued Oil Miners if its still possible. (well played with OXY Mr. Buffet)... Enjoy the markets and stay green ;)
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Longevity_Contrarian
2
USoil or CRUDE oil will be in the hypeUSOIL, Crude oil will boost up from range. Trade moved in three directions according to our previous analysis. now new wave will be up from range 88-73 back towards new highest level of history. We are consistent with our previous analysis. We publish precise and compact information after careful consideration which give you quick glimpse for comparative analysis. Our aim is to deliver simple and compact information which can be used by beginner to give them brief understanding of trades without any complexity. if you have any question or want to ask about analysis of other pairs or you have any confusion about analysis then feel free to ask us. Don't forget to support by share your ideas and hit like and subscribe button. You can support us through coins donation for more frequent signals. Do your own comparative analysis before jumping into pool.
FX:USOILLong
by AussieLeader
Crude oil Some thesis: Oil is more than enough worldwide. Supply exceeds demand. Transition to electricity. Shale oil - another attempt to manipulate. Saudi Aramco - is the largest capitalization company in the world (another not a good signal for me). We can propose many fundamental arguments, but this is a virtual trading chart (little connect with the real life). It is a world of financial markets. There are a few arguments from financial markets: 1. Largest players in oil futures are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and City Bank. 2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars (petrodollar). Some people wanted to change the system. Now they are dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie, and possibly someone else. Therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. For example, now you can buy 2 barrels of oil per $100, and if the price is $20 you can buy 5 barrels. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $100 to $30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year about increasing oil production. As you understand, they do not participate in the formation of oil prices cause we see a chart of futures oil. All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened. 3. Most likely, they will use these instruments during the coming falling of the US economy. 4. We are moving in the downtrend channel. 5. Cycles. Best regards, EXCAVO
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EXCAVO
5
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement. At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again. The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover. Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader