Crude-oil
CRUDE OIL Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is trading in an uptrend
But the price is about to hit the strong resistance level
And as oil looks locally oversold I would be
Expecting a local bearish correction
Towards the target below
Sell!
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WTI Same Price Action in between Jan-Oct 2018Good Afternoon Traders,
WTI weekly chart seems to be forming the same price action between January 2018 and October 2018.
RSI chart losing momentum while price getting new highs.
Price should pass Oct 2021 highs to lose momentum and get in the range between $50-65.
I decided to watch Crude oil and set up some alerts regarding its price action.
I will share ideas and I look for a good Short set-up for US OIL .
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Your feedback will always be appreciated.
Wish you a great day and Stay Safe! TVC:USOIL
CL - 15 Minute MicroCrude Oil has an expanded range from 78.36 to 80.48.
Sellers have been roundly pushed back as CL would simply
collect the energy and grind higher.
API Today and EIA T0morrow will provide direction, the
Gap remains overhead and should be filled.
Rates have had a mild impact on CL, as has the DX.
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We currently hold no positions and are awaiting the next break of 80
or support to trade to consider a Position.
The Weekly and Monthly ranges are quite large and have us squarely
on the sidelines while the Indices are providing greater Velocity
Intra-Day.
Should TNX backtest the breakout, we will be closely watching the
reaction within Energy.
NG came up nicely off its 3.50/3.70 range to move back over $4.
RBOB remains in a larger Range and is becoming a leader in the
Energy Complex into March as reformulations begin to gain momentum.
CL - Into the Gap Fill81.12 to 83.32 are not open for the Fill and Overthrow.
There is plenty of Oil regardless of API / EIA Non0-sense.
Hookahs are having a party at Virtual Davos this Year.
Bless them, them as the Sultan is worth $2.1 Trillion, makes
Gates, Buffet, Besos, and Elon look like Pikers.
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NQ will be in trade on NPK for Spring Argo-Biz and reformulations.
CL usually peaks this time of YEar with Nasty January / February effect
now in trade due to December effect push forward.
All in all it's broken the Channel we indicated would be important for the
toss over, mission accomplished.
It's been giving SELLERs Hell on a pitchfork, why then keep coming back
is beyond me, but we will gladly pick their pockets,
CL - The Gapit appears OPEC is providing the nudge for Crude Oil.
Gasoline demand certainly is NOT.
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Macro factors will catch up with it soon enough, overall
we remain in wait and see mode for CL.
No positions simply Sell on PO's hit - today Sold 78.44 PO and
closed at 77.93
It is hanging on to the 50 SMA @ 75.96 for now, the 200SMA is
below @ 70.92.
MACD is diverging while A/D is sharply Positive.
Appears to be another Squeeze, an unrelenting one.
CRUDE OIL SHORT HH TO HL AND MARKET FORMATION crude oil sell position expected as for market formation double top along with HH TO HL HTF retracement
CL - SMA ChecklistCL is trading both FIbs ad SMAs.
They have a higher price in Trade, but
have gaps both Above and Below.
70.16 / 70.11 would be the Pullback,
but the BOts won't allow this until after
Lunch and the EU Session ends.
We took a small sell only to be stopped
take a $900 loss.
NQ a different story as we took a small
long there and enjoyed the run.
16400 is the New NQ Price Objective, we'll
see how CL responds as it is tracking with
NQ against the OVX.
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Crude Oil continues to trade vertically in Extensions.
One after another...
OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for
Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term.
Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22)
66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%)
Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22)
66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%)
Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22)
65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%)
Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22)
65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%)
Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22)
63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%)
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Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation.
The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now
it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down.
CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to
support Price to the best of their abilities within reason.
They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
Brent Crude - Further to Fall?Brent crude has been tumbling in recent weeks, forced lower by slowing growth, a coordinated SPR release and this past week, the new Omicron variant.
OPEC+ had an opportunity to arrest the slump today and at first, it appeared they'd passed up the opportunity. But the decision to maintain not change their planned increases each month came with an important caveat, that they would do so at any point if they think it's warranted.
In other words, they didn't have enough data to hand today but if that arrives at any point between now and the next meeting and warrants an adjustment, they'll do so immediately.
With crude off its lows and higher on the day, has it bottomed out? Possibly. But that will depend on the information that appears over the coming weeks and how bad it is for the global economy.
In the meantime, the price had been falling prior to the announcement but as you can see on the 4-hour chart, it was losing momentum all the time. So the caveat provided the excuse the market was already hoping for.
If it has bottomed for now, how big a correction can we expect? Or can we expect it to rally from here?
While we may see some tests around the 38.2 and 50 fib levels on the way up, the big test above here lies around $76.50 where the 61.8 fib on the 4-hour chart coincides with the bottom of the channel, 55/89-period SMA band and a major prior level of support and resistance. A move above here could put us back into more bullish territory.
CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL fell sharply and lost almost 28%
But then the price hit a strong daily strucutre
And a bullish reaction followed
I think that the level will hold
And if you take a look at what is happening
On the lower timeframes, you will see
A kind of a bullish wedge pattern
So after a potential retest of the level
And a breakout of the wedge
I belive oil will go up again
Buy!
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (25th November 2021)USOIL seems to stabilize in range between 75 USD and 79 USD. Currently, it trades around 78 USD; and we are closely watching technical indicators as they continue to point to the bearish condition. Current state of oil coincides with the recent set of bearish news regarding realese of the strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We do expect the OPEC to take counter measure in response to this action. We think this will most likely take form of lessening production quotas for OPEC's members. We still think that in long-term price of oil is headed higher. However, in short-term and medium-term ongoing politics between the OPEC and the U.S. create headwinds for further rise in price of oil. Despite that, we expect OPEC's counter measures to bolster bullish case for WTI oil.
WTI oil continuous futures chart and volume:
Volume continues to decrease which suggests that selling pressure cools off.
Other developments in a world thatt are related to oil market:
1. First snow in Europe drags power prices higher.
2. EIA reports that crude oil inventories rose slightly last week with inventories of gasoline falling.
3. UN Nuclear Agency failed to reach agreement with Iran last week.
4. Oil markets take relatively well release of strategic oil reserves.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD is also bearish but it started to show first signs of flattening. Though, it needs to be closely observed for next action in the following days. If it manages to reverse to the upside and cross above 0 points then we will view it as very bullish development. Stochastic remains in bearish area, however, it managed to reverse and it currently points to bullish direction. It also needs to be observed closely in the following days. If it manages to oscillate higher then we will view it as bullish development. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. ADX suggests that prevailing trend is very weak.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI exhibits divergence in its medium-term structure. We will observe it in the following weeks and we will look for its ability to reverse back into bullish direction. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it keeps moving sideways (bearish histogram is forming today). DM+ and DM- remain bullish. ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend is weakening.
Divergence in RSI:
Double divergence in RSI is not particularly bullish development. We will observe action of RSI very closely in the following weeks as it flashes warning signs at the moment.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Support 1 is at 76.95 USD, Support 2 is at 75.47 USD, Support 3 is at 74.21. These supports act as short-term levels of importance. Additionally, yesterday's high at 79.20 USD acts as immediate resistance. Another important level from psychological standpoint is 80 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Crude oil - sell zone Sell limit 78.12
Stop loss 80.87
Take profit 73.90
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U.S. May Drop Crude Prices for OPEC+The largest oil cartel in the world, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies known as OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Thursday, November 4, to discuss oil production quotas. Markets expect OPEC+ to stay true to the existing deal to up oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day starting from December 1.
On the other hand, some of the largest oil consumers are frowning on high crude prices and are calling on OPEC+ to increase production in order to lower gasoline prices in some regions. China reported in a rare official statement that it had released gasoline and diesel reserves to increase market supply and support price stability in some regions. Now there is a serious threat that an anti-Saudi Arabia and Russia coalition led by the United States could be formed, possibly jointed by the world’s largest oil consumers Japan, India, and China.
U.S. President Joe Biden has already called OPEC+ to increase production beyond the planned 400,000 barrels in order to lower gasoline prices in the United States that have hit $3.7 per gallon, which is a maximum in the last 7 years.
This conflict could be escalated and may lead to new sanctions from the United States, if OPEC+ does not take any additional actions during its meeting on Thursday. Consumers are quite unhappy with current crude prices. The higher crude prices climb, the more hardball rhetoric we may see from the U.S. Administration.
Brent crude prices are performing a correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and is trading close to $83.50 per barrel. The major resistance is located at $86.74, a maximum reached in January 2018. This is exactly the level where Brent crude prices reversed, showing a peak of $86.70 per barrel on October 25. It is worth noting that Brent crude prices are below the upward trend that started on August 23. We may see an even stronger correction if prices drop below $83 per barrel. If this level is passed, Brent crude prices may drop to $79.80-80 per barrel, the late September and early October levels as well as the EMA 55 level on the daily timeframe chart.
So, this time we may face the decline of crude prices after the OPEC+ meeting instead of the rise we saw before the previous OPEC+ meeting.