OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for
Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term.
Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22)
66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%)
Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22)
66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%)
Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22)
65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%)
Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22)
65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%)
Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22)
63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%)
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Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation.
The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now
it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down.
CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to
support Price to the best of their abilities within reason.
They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
Crude-oil
Brent Crude - Further to Fall?Brent crude has been tumbling in recent weeks, forced lower by slowing growth, a coordinated SPR release and this past week, the new Omicron variant.
OPEC+ had an opportunity to arrest the slump today and at first, it appeared they'd passed up the opportunity. But the decision to maintain not change their planned increases each month came with an important caveat, that they would do so at any point if they think it's warranted.
In other words, they didn't have enough data to hand today but if that arrives at any point between now and the next meeting and warrants an adjustment, they'll do so immediately.
With crude off its lows and higher on the day, has it bottomed out? Possibly. But that will depend on the information that appears over the coming weeks and how bad it is for the global economy.
In the meantime, the price had been falling prior to the announcement but as you can see on the 4-hour chart, it was losing momentum all the time. So the caveat provided the excuse the market was already hoping for.
If it has bottomed for now, how big a correction can we expect? Or can we expect it to rally from here?
While we may see some tests around the 38.2 and 50 fib levels on the way up, the big test above here lies around $76.50 where the 61.8 fib on the 4-hour chart coincides with the bottom of the channel, 55/89-period SMA band and a major prior level of support and resistance. A move above here could put us back into more bullish territory.
CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL fell sharply and lost almost 28%
But then the price hit a strong daily strucutre
And a bullish reaction followed
I think that the level will hold
And if you take a look at what is happening
On the lower timeframes, you will see
A kind of a bullish wedge pattern
So after a potential retest of the level
And a breakout of the wedge
I belive oil will go up again
Buy!
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (25th November 2021)USOIL seems to stabilize in range between 75 USD and 79 USD. Currently, it trades around 78 USD; and we are closely watching technical indicators as they continue to point to the bearish condition. Current state of oil coincides with the recent set of bearish news regarding realese of the strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We do expect the OPEC to take counter measure in response to this action. We think this will most likely take form of lessening production quotas for OPEC's members. We still think that in long-term price of oil is headed higher. However, in short-term and medium-term ongoing politics between the OPEC and the U.S. create headwinds for further rise in price of oil. Despite that, we expect OPEC's counter measures to bolster bullish case for WTI oil.
WTI oil continuous futures chart and volume:
Volume continues to decrease which suggests that selling pressure cools off.
Other developments in a world thatt are related to oil market:
1. First snow in Europe drags power prices higher.
2. EIA reports that crude oil inventories rose slightly last week with inventories of gasoline falling.
3. UN Nuclear Agency failed to reach agreement with Iran last week.
4. Oil markets take relatively well release of strategic oil reserves.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. MACD is also bearish but it started to show first signs of flattening. Though, it needs to be closely observed for next action in the following days. If it manages to reverse to the upside and cross above 0 points then we will view it as very bullish development. Stochastic remains in bearish area, however, it managed to reverse and it currently points to bullish direction. It also needs to be observed closely in the following days. If it manages to oscillate higher then we will view it as bullish development. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. ADX suggests that prevailing trend is very weak.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI exhibits divergence in its medium-term structure. We will observe it in the following weeks and we will look for its ability to reverse back into bullish direction. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it keeps moving sideways (bearish histogram is forming today). DM+ and DM- remain bullish. ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend is weakening.
Divergence in RSI:
Double divergence in RSI is not particularly bullish development. We will observe action of RSI very closely in the following weeks as it flashes warning signs at the moment.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Support 1 is at 76.95 USD, Support 2 is at 75.47 USD, Support 3 is at 74.21. These supports act as short-term levels of importance. Additionally, yesterday's high at 79.20 USD acts as immediate resistance. Another important level from psychological standpoint is 80 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Crude oil - sell zone Sell limit 78.12
Stop loss 80.87
Take profit 73.90
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U.S. May Drop Crude Prices for OPEC+The largest oil cartel in the world, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies known as OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Thursday, November 4, to discuss oil production quotas. Markets expect OPEC+ to stay true to the existing deal to up oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day starting from December 1.
On the other hand, some of the largest oil consumers are frowning on high crude prices and are calling on OPEC+ to increase production in order to lower gasoline prices in some regions. China reported in a rare official statement that it had released gasoline and diesel reserves to increase market supply and support price stability in some regions. Now there is a serious threat that an anti-Saudi Arabia and Russia coalition led by the United States could be formed, possibly jointed by the world’s largest oil consumers Japan, India, and China.
U.S. President Joe Biden has already called OPEC+ to increase production beyond the planned 400,000 barrels in order to lower gasoline prices in the United States that have hit $3.7 per gallon, which is a maximum in the last 7 years.
This conflict could be escalated and may lead to new sanctions from the United States, if OPEC+ does not take any additional actions during its meeting on Thursday. Consumers are quite unhappy with current crude prices. The higher crude prices climb, the more hardball rhetoric we may see from the U.S. Administration.
Brent crude prices are performing a correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and is trading close to $83.50 per barrel. The major resistance is located at $86.74, a maximum reached in January 2018. This is exactly the level where Brent crude prices reversed, showing a peak of $86.70 per barrel on October 25. It is worth noting that Brent crude prices are below the upward trend that started on August 23. We may see an even stronger correction if prices drop below $83 per barrel. If this level is passed, Brent crude prices may drop to $79.80-80 per barrel, the late September and early October levels as well as the EMA 55 level on the daily timeframe chart.
So, this time we may face the decline of crude prices after the OPEC+ meeting instead of the rise we saw before the previous OPEC+ meeting.
USOIL LONGNews:
The Biden administration has asked some of the world`s largest oil consuming nations - including China, India and Japan - to consider releasing crude stockpiles in a coordinated effort to lower global energy prices, according to several people familiar with the matter.
The unusual request comes as US President Joe Biden fends off political pressure over rising pump prices and other consumer costs driven by a rebound in economic activity from lows plumbed early in the coronavirus pandemic.
We are thoroughly reviewing the U.S. request, however, we do not release oil reserve because of rising oil prices. We could release oil reserve in case of supply imbalance, but not to respond to rising oil prices," the official said.
CL - Glasgow Summit's Coal Boiler Room200 Nations struggles to find consensus, which is required.
Kill Coal was on the Agenda.
Meanwhile, the Co-Pilot in charge mused:
"If you buy an Electric Vehicle you can Drive Across America
on a Single Tank of Gas."
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Crude OIl Inventories after five weeks of builds - show a draw...
and are sold again.
It either gets up off the dirt or begins to plunge to the 60s.
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This week is pivotal.
CL - Algos and the Range to 88.21 Price ObjectiveThis Friday is going to be one for the Books in Crude Oil.
We have API/EIA/RIGs Data ahead this week.
Participants are clearly positioned for the Measured Move.
Our Fills remain open at @ 82.15 to 82.69, backtesting the
Support Levels after Last week's Price Levels.
CRUDE | Ascending Channel Double Top Reversal Play ;)On the HTF we have an ascending expanding structure from which we broke out of in a separated ascending channel at the HTF Double Top Highs. Price has pushed down and broke out of said channel and now it looks like we're forming a correction after the breakout. The SL size is a little too large for my liking to place an order now. We'll wait to see if we can get a tighter entry like smaller correction after the breakout.
Crude Oil (WTI): Key Levels to Watch 🛢️
Hey traders,
Contemplating this bullish rally on WTI,
here are the major key level to watch for pullbacks.
77.0 - is the structure resistance that went broken this week.
Now it turned into a support
91.0 is a minor monthly/weekly resistance.
The price may retrace from that.
107.0 - 115.0 is a major monthly resistance cluster.
A strong bearish reaction will be expected from that.
Be prepared for a bullish continuation.
Try to catch it on an occasional pullback.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Crude Trend analysisThe energy benchmark had previously benefited from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and its allies, known as OPEC+, decision on Monday. According to Reuters, the oil cartel reaffirmed a previously agreed accord in which 400,000 barrels per day (BPD) will be added in November. “An OPEC+ source told Reuters soon before Monday's ministerial talks that the group had been pressured to ramp up output faster, but added: ‘We are terrified of the fourth wave of corona; no one wants to make any huge moves,'” according to Reuters.
CL - New HighWatch Crude Oil closely, it may be on the
verge of an explosive move.
It ALSO has a very Bad Habit of making
New Highs priors to selling off...
A quick Dip-In prior to reversal. One thing
does appear higher probability than usual,
Crude Oil will retest its Highs and Double
them...
Watch the reaction for a close over $77
as OPEC meeting.
A weekly close over $77... and this can get
Vertical Day after Day to 104.
UKOIL is on bullish momentum! | 1 Oct 2021Price is consolidating in an ascending channel . We foresee a potential bounce from our target entry at 77.41 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and graphical swing high. Price have the potential to climb towards our area of take profit at 80.00 in line with parallel channel , and close to our 127.2% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing room for bullish momentum. Alternatively, our stop loss is placed at 76.06 in line with 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
UKOIL is on a bullish momentum | 30 Sept 2021Price is on facing bullish pressure. We foresee a potential bounce from our pivot entry at 77.55 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and parallel channel towards our take profit at 79.94 in line with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and graphical swing high. Alternatively, our stop loss is placed at 76.66 in line with graphical swing low. Technical indicators are depicting bullish momentum.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
WTI OIL Breakout! Will Go Up! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
WTI OIL broke a resistance cluster
Of the falling resistance and a horizontal level
Which changes my bias to bullish
And I think that after a pullback
We will see a move up
Buy!
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See other ideas below too!
✅CRUDE OIL LOCAL SHORT🔥
✅ CRUDE OIL is retesting a daily falling resistance
While on the lower timeframes we can see
That the resistance confluences with the local
Rising resistance level as well
And the price actually pulled back on the retest
So I think that a further bearish reaction is possible
But the limited in scope, thus the target is nearby
SHORT🔥
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Technical analysis update: USOIL (24th August 2021)USOIL rebounded from its recent low 2 days ago to over 67 USD today. This retracement from 61.76 USD is pretty significant as price soared above 65 USD price level which acted as siginificant support before the selloff. We mentioned in our previous post that if WTI oil manages to hold above 65 USD this would be particularly bullish developement for it. In recent trading sessions Stochastic gained bullish direction. In addition to that RSI reversed to the upside from oversold area below 30 points. At the same time MACD strives to turn bullish and follow RSI. However, we need to note that MACD still remains in the bearish territory and needs to be closely observed over the next few days. We are currently bullish on USOIL. Our medium price target remains 77.50 USD and long term price target remains 80 USD. Now as price retraced back above 65 USD we would like to set short term price target to 70 USD.
MACD daily timeframe:
Stochastic daily timeframe:
Prior developements from 18th August 2021:
Here we warned our readers that if price plunged below 65 USD then more selling was probable. As that happened we abandoned our short term price target of 70 USD. We also pointed out support level at 61.58 USD and discussed the possibility of fake breakout below 65 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.