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Crude-oil

TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis. FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup. ///////////// Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there... From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today) Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday). There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed. The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level.... The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE... Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST //////////// I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart. Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
NYMEX:CLJ2021Short
by timwest
10
BRENT OIL - Wait For It!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. BRENT is approaching strong resistance in green from Weekly so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. on H4: BRENT is forming a trendline in red , but it is not valid yet, so we will be waiting for a third swing low to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple). Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then sell after a momentum candle close below it (gray zone) Until the sell is activated, BRENT would be overall bullish and can still test the upper bound of the resistance. And of course, as BRENT approaches our lower blue support, we will be looking for buy setups. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
O
by TheSignalyst
45
Crude oilRecently, there has been a weaker supply response from US oil producers to higher prices and stabilization of stock levels following the abnormal freezing temperatures in Texas last week. Technically, the price reached a long-term resistance line and a supply zone around 63-66.5. I expect a rollback to support level 51.6. There is a big chance this year to reverse the long-term trend for bulls. I don't believe the oil price has surpassed 80 until 2022. Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:USOILLong
by EXCAVO
12
Crude Oil burnt out Seldom post about Crude Oil but this is too obvious to miss and a very good learning point... You see, Crude (and Energy) has recently been on fire (almost literally) with the rise of Crude oil due to many factors in recent months. The thing is, warning signs appear to tell of a retracement pullback, or even end of bull run. The Weekly chart kindly heads up with long upper tails above 61.50. The RPM clearly warns of a pull back too. Net interest from Non-Commercials are not increasing as it was in early Nov, and the Top 8 Traders appear to be going more Net short. Perhaps the daily chart (right panel) shows it clearer... with a marubozu-doji-reversed marubozu top pattern, and technicals to boot where RPM has crossed down, and MACD cross down after a bearish divergence flatline. Something is clearly about to change... the party is almost done.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
Dead wrong on Oil, but what now?Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply oversold, indeed, I believe this sell-off is far overdone. From a pure technical perspective, the RSI is now turning, and MACD looks to be bottoming out. We should retest the ~60 level again, as this was the previous range bound channel crude was trading in. If 50 is broken, this thesis is invalidated and I am dead wrong. We will see.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by MT-Macro
Dont be negativeso you losted all your munz, so what? it cud always be worser. this is important history lessn for pro traders from a vetern who livd through the histori of stuff ok so let me educ8 u, this happen a long time ago, i tink around... april 2020? ya peepo was looky looky at da oils cuz da oils was droppa it was $2 buckarinos or sumtin and dey though: "hey i kno is so low i buy i buy", but they died. what dems were really buying fo real werent da oils at all, dey was da oil future contracs. lemme get u learned about dat a futures contract is when you say hey bro i wanna pay you for this now and get it later lol. anyway, oil future be all like: ima go low and low, it went so low it was crazi. it went to $0.02 cent and den peeps really went mad. it cant go much lower!!! lol!!! so it go to -$40 a baller LMAO REKT BUT WAIT HOW so ok basically u buy dis ting and u get 40 bux back?! ya ya ay cool. dey post in on websit for mentally challenged wall street bets on la reddit and peeps were buying it like a hot cake howeva da story aint ova.... cuz wat dem pepes didnt know is they had to take physical delivery of dat oil...... yup! dat was how da futur contrac worked, u buy u buy and den u can sell, but nobody want to buy cuz u needed to go der and get all dat oil LMAO or else u was in breach of contrac so let dat be a lesson to you about stuff, i not sure wat da lesson is, let me make some shit up. yeah, the lesson is there is no bottom for sum tings so make sure u know wat u buyin and also buy algorand cuz it gon go uppa a lot the end
TVC:USOIL
by coinhoIio
CL: USO: Crude Oil Awaiting OPEC Decision to Boost ProductionCrude Oil chart is consolidating awaiting OPEC's decision to boost production by 500,000 B/d in February, with a total of 2 Billion B/d increase by April of 2021. Prices may dip to $45 level. Economic recovery from COVID-19 is in the cards with expectations of higher demand coming in the spring and into H2 of 2021. Currently, Crude Oil prices are holding grounds, pressured by the OPEC production increases news, but supported by expectations of growing demand. Based on the OPEC agenda and Russia's position seeking price stability, 2021 oil prices are expected to trade within the range of $45-$55. Lower prices, down to $45 -42 level may be seen in the near term, while demand has not recovered yet, but production increases are already agreed upon. Technical analysis: 4 Hr RSI chart shows mid-range consolidation, which may get resolved by testing the bottom before going back up. Multi-frame MACD chart analyses show consolidation at the top of the range on a Daily chart, with mid-range consolidation on a 4 Hr chart. The most significant Fibonacci level from the most recent run up appears to be 50% at $45.50, which is also 200 EMA. This area is expected to get tested first, should OPEC approve its production increases on January 4th. Lower levels of $42 and $39 are also possible targets, depending on the EIA inventory reports in the coming weeks. We still do not have full demand recovery, while production may start increasing ahead of time.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by tradexchart
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been tearing higher since the start of November, rising more than 40% to return to far healthier levels. The rally has started to slow though and with so much good news - vaccines, OPEC+ deal, US stimulus deal (almost) - now priced in, I wonder whether we're about to see a bit of a corrective move. WTI has trended higher nicely, following the 55/89 period SMAs on the 4-hour chart and a break of this may be the first clue that it's run its course. WTI peaked just above $49 today, entering what has been a major area of support over the last couple of years before becoming resistance in early 2020. While a US stimulus deal would be positive for oil demand in the coming months, I wonder how much it is already priced in. It may give crude a small bump but would profit taking then kick in?
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.11.25This linkage with Oil is a well known school, which believed only in absolute freeing moves can be a forced to be reckoned with. In 90 cases out of 100 I consider it worth recommending. Even after the defensive breakdown in Oil with Covid chapter I, it should in no way b overestimated that we are suddenly reaching the previous breakdown manoeuvre. Thus in this position, what is in play is a cleansing of USD shorts as the move got out of hand. Some large macro players were caught on the CAD bid yesterday, out of position if you ask me and well into the middle of the range. Asking for a squeeze up towards 1.306x and 1.314x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig