WTI Oil: Made a Top formation on 4H. Two possible rebound pointsWTI Crude Oil is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 36.632, MACD = 0.170, ADX = 31.347). The MACD turned flat and as you see on the chart that has been a signal of a top formation on three previous occasions. In two of them the price dropped a little more than -11% and on the other around -15.50%. The Symmetrical Support zone that held on three occasions since June 16th is 37.50 - 37.00. It is possible to see the price rebound either there or a little earlier on the 4H MA200.
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Crude-oil
🛢 Brent Crude Full Analysis - July 07Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to subscribe to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
TECHNICALS:
Brent crude is trading at an important long-term rising trendline which acts as a solid support at the moment.
The 1-hour chart shows a nice retracement today, signaling further strength in the price from a technical standpoint. The RSI formed a hidden bullish divergence just before the spike.
CORRELATIONS:
The chart shows the USD index (inversed) and Brent crude. The recent up-move in Brent can be partly explained by the downtrend in the US dollar.
However, notice that Brent is closer to its June highs than the USD is to its June lows, signaling a slight bearish divergence.
THEMES:
Recent reports suggest oil demand to rebound despite the spike In COVID-19 cases.
China's crude oil imports of 11.93 million bpd also hit a record high in June.
UPCOMING ECONOMIC REPORTS:
The US Crude Oil Inventories report is scheduled for release tomorrow (July 08) at 15:30 GMT with a forecast of a -3.2 million barrels. The previous release showed a fall of 7.2 million barrels.
=== SUMMARY ===
I remain bullish on Brent crude as long as it trades above the rising trendline.
Our previous post on Brent suggested taking a long position at the $39 pullback which is in a nice profit so far.
A close above $43.50 paves the road to $50.
Brent Crude: Watch Recovery For Another SellWe got the first leg down (A) of the second drop ((W)) to complete the big consolidation (((4))).
I expect the retracement (B) to emerge soon to reach between 41.60 and 42.20
I highlighted the historical pullback with green ellipse for sample.
Another drop down (C) could undershoot at 37.51, ((Y))=((W)) or overlap beyond the terminal point of wave ((W)) below 36.99.
Brent Crude Could Have Started Another Drop to 36.99The price failed to tag the former top of 43.40, but it's ok and the huge flat correction goes as planned (see related).
We got move down and almost full retracement of it in place. Another drop is pending to complete the correction.
The minimum target is located at the former low of 36.99.
Brent Crude Updated Map - More Down 32.90/29.70Current consolidation is a classic flat within double three WXY (white labels).
Which is in its turn is the wave ((X)) of the larger yellow degree - the junction between ((W)) and ((Y)).
After it gets completed another drop would follow to hit the blue box between 32.90 (38.2% Fib) and 29.70 (50% Fib).
CL: Crude Oil Forming a Reversal Top?Crude Oil reversed from its highs of last week near $40.7, almost closing the gap. The chart rallied up to its 50% retracement level ($40.7) of the recent major decline and is now pointing downward. Possible next retracement levels are: 78.6% ($35.39), 61.8% ($31.14), and 50% level at $28.7. MACD is forming a top; RSI is pointing downward.
Fundamentals are bearish: Supply cuts have been confirmed by OPEC+ last week, but only through July, which is a short-term measure. Inventories showed a build of 5.7 Mb for the week of June 5 (EIA report). Lack of demand is a major concern to investors, although production is slowing down. Supply is still ahead of demand.
Brent Crude Consolidation Alternative view - Simple ZigZag downThis could be more simple - just a zigzag
wave (C) could be underway then. It could hit at least the 61.8% of (A) = 39.77 or just below the terminal point of wave (A).
It can go deeper to hit 38.40 where (C) = (A).
Watch reaction in blue box.
Brent Crude Entered Consolidation The target from my last update for this idea was reached at 43.40 - exactly to the tick. I think it's just lucky coincidence ))
Now the market is consolidating within 39.84-43.40 range.
We got sharp wave (A) down in place, which hit 39.84; now the wave (B) is underway. It could retest the former top of 43.40.
Let's see.
Brent Crude Could Hit Between 41.60 and 46.60Earlier I posted an updated map where I was expecting a simple ABC correction down to hit 31-32 (see related)
It emerged as double three WXY instead and the wave (X) ran deeper to retest the start of wave (W) making it classic flat correction.
It looks finished as wave C of (Y) unfolded as an Ending Diagonal.
It was broken up now and the calculated target is located in the area between 41.60 and 46.60.
Now all waves look clear as we completed large wave 4 and now market aims at wave 5 up.
Levels to watch in CrudePosting this for those who are interested in Crude and what to anticipate as there is lots of uncertainty around this market. Because of that some major hedge funds prohibited their traders to trade running crude oil contracts.
On Market uncertainty -
"Bloomberg has reported that only 50% of shale producers have hedged 2021 production compared to 60% that had done so at a comparable point last year. Many producers are finding themselves trapped in a Catch 22 situation. The current WTI price of $32/barrel is still way off the ~$50/barrel that many shale producers require to turn a profit. Hedging at this point would effectively mean foregoing any future price gains and guaranteeing yourself a loss. With production cuts so far working nicely, the recent storage crunch now in the back mirror and economies gradually emerging from lockdown, that appears like a rushed decision.
On the other hand, this oil price rally appears to be running on fumes, and failing to hedge means risking even lower prices in the future. For instance, whereas the WTI June contract has rallied some 75% this month, WTI swap for 2021 has only climbed 10%. This essentially means that traders are very unsure whether the gains being made in the crude markets are here to stay."
More - oilprice.com