Crude Oil set to Plunge to Historic Lows from Price WarsWith the virus well underway, and the USD still holding up reasonably well (for now), crude will continue its historic plunge to record lows. Sometime by the spring or summer of this year, I see crude being around $20-23 before stabilizing sometime in 2021 (remember: crude this low is NOT a good thing for world equities and stocks). This re-stabilization will likely be off the backs of the DXY decreasing in value, rather than some sort of economic turn-around.
What was once thought to be some sort of multiple-expansion and economic turn-around from the USA-China "truce" has now been completely blown out of the water due to the coronavirus, which will likely slip the entire world into a recession. Normally, this means that OPEC must reduce production in order to meet the reduced supply quota to keep prices somewhat stable. However, due to geopolitical issues, oil-rich countries have decided to gouge each-other with price wars rather than adjust accordingly, which will force crude to plunge to historic lows.
Here's what to expect:
- $20-23 crude for oil in 2020
- Potential flash crashes into the $30.00 range or lower within the coming weeks or months
- US 10 Year yield to hit 0.000 and likely negative in 2020
- US equities (and world equities) to remain significantly under-pressure until the US 10 Year rebounds to at-least 1.000 and crude stabilizes to near $45
What to do:
- Hold mostly cash and/or gold bullion (non-leveraged) and/or stable/low beta equities like utilities and high quality dividend aristocrats (my top picks are Fortis and Franco-Nevada)
- Enjoy lower gas prices, eventually
- zSplit
Crude-oil
Gasoline Down + Oil Extends Losses in Asia With Crude DownHeadlines:
• Crude Extends its Losses in Asia With NYMEX Crude Down -3.16% + RBOB Gasoline Down -3.29%
• UN Secretary General Calls for Immediate Ceasefire After 33 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Idlib
• Asian Equities Feel Full Force of Sell Pressure with Nikkei225 Down -4.60%
Daily View + Trade Idea on Crude Oil by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your setup:
a)Based on the post we upload yesterday on Crude Oil we have developed a short setup (check related ideas)
b)Our Entry / Stop / Break Even / take profit has been set.
c)We expect a continuation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone
d)We can see 2 circles on the chart that are similar situations, and the previous one helped us to develop this idea based on the technical aspects we currently have.
e)We always take all our trades to a 1% risk.
f)The Risk reward ratio on this one is 1:2
WTI Oil: Short term (bullish) outlook.Oil has finally entered a consistent uptrend on the 4H chart, practically being within a Channel Up since the Feb 04 bottom (RSI = 59.395, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 23.410, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). The MACD shows that it can be sustainable in the near future as the buy/ sell points seem quite obvious.
It is also positive that the 4H MA50 (which was formerly a strong Resistance in the January sell-off), has now turned into Support and has already successfully provided rebounds twice. Also see how systematically the Lower Highs of the January downtrend are filled (blue dashed lines). It appears that the market is using those as benchmarks/ targets during this (early) uptrend.
Assuming the pattern holds, the next Lower High Gap is at 56.00, which should be the technical Target for short term buyers.
This is very much in line with our long term perspective:
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USOIL - tremendous gain is aheadAll minimum downside targets were reached as wave Y of (B) tagged former low and it is longer than wave W. See related chart about drop.
Almost perfect flat has been built in wave (B).
I think the wave (C) could emerge now.
Buy trigger is above the recent top of $52.20
(C)=(A) target is located at $73.50 - huge gain.
Besides that (C) could tag the former top of $76.88 - extra gain.
Risk/reward is around 1:6.
Crude Shrugs off Larger than Expected Build with Futures up +3%Headlines:
- Oil Futures shrugged off larger than expected EIA Build up +3%
- OPEC expects global demand to drop after release of monthly report showing revision down
- Gasoline & Heating Oil both push higher breaking away from weeks lows
Feb 5 Session Profile | /CL Crude Oil FuturesDescription: Some things I'm thinking about tonight.
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
OPEC Partners Seek Meeting in a Bid to Control Falling PricesHeadlines:
- Chinese Equities are pointing to a negative start back from holidays as delayed hit on markets is expected to roll into today’s session
- Chinese Central Bank trying to stem the flow by inserting 150 billion CNY$ into Chinese equities
- OPEC partners seek emergency meeting in a bid to control falling crude prices seen in recent weeks
- Coronavirus sees first international death and virus continues to spread globally seeing new cases
Successful Short Trade (BOOMER Market)WTI Crude is in an obvious mid-term BOOMER market here, which is great!
According to the rules of CONDI Trading System, we are allowed to only trade short,
inside the recognized range - as long as our TS has all of our trades are fully confirmed.
Recognized and confirmed a trading opportunity at point marked with the callout.
Trade successfully closed hitting PL within just 8 60m candles.
Happy CONDI trading!
Short Setup on Crude Oil Futures by ThinkingAntsOkUse this asa guide to develop your setup:
Main items we can see on the Daily Chart:
-The price was rejected from a major resistance zone.
-The ascending channel has been broken.
-Currently we can see a corrective structure (continuation pattern).
-Our forecast is a continuation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone.
-We will trade this instrument as it is shown on the char.
-We will cancel this trade if the price goes above the stop zone.