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Crude-oil

2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Trading range at the highs but bears printing bigger bars and they broke out of the bull channel that started 2 weeks ago. Measured move down would bring us to around the breakout retest price area 78.5 / 78.8. Bulls still want to break above 82 for 83/84 and test the bear trend lines again. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 82 bull case: Bulls still see this as a second leg of a pullback around the lower bull trend line and they want to start their third leg (W5) up to 83/84. They need to keep it above 80 or bears might get cheeky and want to push it to the daily ema around 78.8, which would also be a breakout retest. Invalid below 80. bear case: Bears are not able to print two decent looking consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. Until they get much stronger or give up again, best they can probably hope for is sideways around 80. Selling today looks like a leg inside a trading range and not a stronger pullback below 80. short term: Neutral 80-82. It’s moving sideways. Don’t make it more complicated. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear key levels given
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
A slick move in crude - black gold has the wind to its backThe oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of the equation has seen that positioning challenged, and along with a punchy 8.8m barrel draw in the weekly inventory report, has resulted in a strong push higher in price. Given we’re now seeing price trending, amid building momentum, there are signs that systematic players (CTAs) are chasing this move above $81 higher and therefore strength begets strength. Given the still low positioning, and deeply backwardated crude futures curve that really incentivizes oil traders to be long the front-month WTI crude futures for the carry (upon expiration), the near-term signs look positive for crude, where pullbacks should offer opportunity and we’d be looking for a push into $85, perhaps even to revisit the highs seen in April of $87.63.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Pepperstone
WTI rises to test key resistanceCrude oil prices rose on Monday, making back its losses from Friday and some. While there is hope for increased fuel demand as we head to the summer months, today’s recovery comes on the back of a three-week drop. Prices have been held back in recent weeks because of various factors, ranging from concerns over increased non-OPEC supply and worries about the demand outlook, due, among other reasons, to diminished hopes over imminent US interest rate cuts. The strong dollar recovery is also weighing on sentiment in the oil market. But with prices shedding more than 10% from their April highs, the bulls feel the downside could be more limited moving forward. However, a revisit of last week’s lows of around $72.50 on WTI remains the more probable outcome than a sharp recovery. Key macro events in this week include US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, both of which could significantly impact the US dollar and, consequently, buck-denominated commodities like gold and oil. Oil prices closed off well off the lows last week The crude oil selling resumed on Friday after a two-day pause. While the losses were milder than earlier in the week and less severe than the drop in metals, this was due to a strong jobs report and positive services PMI data that alleviated fears of weakening demand in the US. Nonetheless, concerns over China persisted, leading to lower prices for the week. Investors were also spooked by the sell-off in other commodities like copper and silver. The selling on oil was also driven by speculative long positions being pared last week by managed funds and large speculators. Not only that but they also increased their short positions last week, resulting in a decrease in net-long exposure. According to positioning data from the CFTC, managed funds increased their short positions by 27.2k contracts, while large speculators increased theirs by 22.1k contracts (21.9%). This positioning data reflects the market response to OPEC's decision to extend oil production cuts. It suggests that traders either anticipated more aggressive support for prices from OPEC, are concerned about declining demand due to a slowing economy, or likely a combination of both factors. Why did all major commodities fall on Friday? The sharp fall in major commodity prices on Friday was driven by a rally in the US dollar, which negatively impacts dollar-denominated commodities. This rally was triggered by stronger-than-expected jobs growth, even though part-time jobs contributed to this increase. Metals were already under pressure prior to the jobs report due to concerns over lower-than-expected Chinese demand for industrial metals and rising copper stockpiles. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China halting its gold purchases in May after an 18-month streak also pressured precious metals, contributing to bearish sentiment in the commodities market. What has been driving oil prices recently? Oil prices have been primarily driven lower by demand concerns and an increase in non-OPEC supply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there is a significant surplus of oil this year, largely due to the growth in US shale production. Consistently weak manufacturing data worldwide has heightened demand concerns. This was particularly evident when crude oil prices dropped to their lowest level since February following weak US factory data. The OPEC+ decision to extend output cuts failed to support oil prices as it was already priced in, and there are worries about phasing out voluntary output cuts amid rising non-OPEC supply. However, with the US driving season underway, demand might pick up, potentially slowing or reversing the sell-off. Currently, no strong bullish reversal signs have been observed, however, which means the short-term path pf least resistance on oil remains to the downside. Crude Oil Technical Analysis The recent drop in oil prices has established a clear resistance level between $76.00 and $76.50 on WTI, which was tested and held on Friday. This will be a crucial resistance area to monitor in the coming week. As long as prices remain below this zone, the bearish trend is expected to continue. There was an oversold bounce last week, but a decline towards the support trend of the bearish channel, around the $73.00 mark or slightly below, is possible this week. WTI has been stuck in a bearish channel since peaking in April. The next major support level below the bearish channel is at $70.00, followed by the December low at $67.87. However, if WTI were to reclaim the old broken support area between $76.00 and $76.50, it could signal a bullish trend, potentially leading to technical buying towards the top of the bearish channel, between $78.00 and $79.00. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com Follow me on twitter: x.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
OPEC Secretary-General Affirms Resilient Oil Demand OPEC Secretary-General Affirms Resilient Oil Demand OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday that oil demand remains resilient. "It's crucial to stay focused on the fundamentals," he emphasized. "Economic growth, supply, and demand are what drive our decisions." Al-Ghais noted that global demand increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter, typically the weakest quarter due to global refinery maintenance. He anticipates continued strong demand in the coming months, particularly with the uptick in summer travel. Saudi Energy Minister Dismisses Bearish Response to OPEC+ Deal, Confident Market Will Adjust Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman dismissed the market's bearish reaction to OPEC+'s decision to gradually phase out voluntary output cuts, expressing confidence that the market will adjust. "Give it a day or two, reality will set in," he stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday. He criticized some banks and media outlets for their narratives around the meeting and reaffirmed that OPEC+ made the right decision. "I know that we did the best job," he asserted. The OPEC+ meeting initially triggered an oil selloff, exacerbated by short selling and movements in the options market, as traders worried about potential oversupply. However, Abdulaziz emphasized that OPEC+ retains the flexibility to pause or reverse production increases based on market conditions. OIL OUTLOOK Oil prices increased early as we mentioned, recovering from a four-month low, which was the lowest point since February. This drop was attributed to an unexpected surge in U.S. stockpiles, indicating softer demand than anticipated. Technically: The price has stabilized within the bearish zone, having already corrected the previous barrier which is 75.39. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, with potential targets at 72.500 and 70.570. A further break below 72.500 could lead the price down to 70.570. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 75.400, it may indicate a bullish trend, potentially reaching up to 78.070. Pivot line: 75.390 Support lines: 72.50, 70.57, 68.12 Resistance lines: 76.80, 78.07, 79.35 The movement range will be between support 70.57 and Resistance 76.80 previous idea:
FX:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Sober_Trading
WTI CRUDE OIL: Neutral on 4H but at the top of the Channel Down.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 44.657, MACD = -0.100, ADX = 42.834) as it has been trading sideways since the start of the month. Nonetheless, it got rejected yesterday at the top of the Channel Down and the 4H MA100, was where it got rejected last time on April 26th. We are short, aiming a the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 73.20). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment. This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart. However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel. Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend. The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
Why Is Today's Low Crucial For Crude Oil?Crude Oil (June) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.15, down 2.68 June WTI Crude Oil futures are now front month and our levels are updated below. A sharp move, in this case the two-day drop, is not uncommon during times of roll and post option expiration as Crude Oil tends to cleanse positioning. With geopolitics front and center as the weekend approaches, major three-star support was tested head on at 80.78-81.06. This aligns with the gap close and gap open after a pennant consolidation from March 20th through March 27th. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 82.70-82.82**, 83.32-83.44***, 84.01-84.39*** Pivot: 82.01-82.15 Support: 81.45**, 80.78-81.11***, 80.12***, 78.80-79.02***, 78.01-78.43 Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
USOIL Nearing Resistance Trendline Area: Breakout or Pullback?USOIL prices have been on an upward trend in recent weeks, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The price has approached a key resistance trendline area, where a breakout or pullback could occur. If the price breaks above the resistance trendline area, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with potential targets at 93.21 and higher. A breakout could be fueled by further supply disruptions or escalating geopolitical tensions Alternatively, the price could pull back before breaking out. A pullback could find support at the 67-70 levels. If the price rebounds from support and breaks above the resistance trendline, it would still be considered bullish.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX