Crude-oil
Oil Likely to Charge Straight AheadPublishing this ahead of the Oil report as there won't be any more good opportunities to go long after it, unless we get a dip and you have fast hands. While many thesis claim that we are still in a bear trend, we believe that we have completed a bear cycle and are now ready to make a bull cycle. If today's inventory report reports a draw (which we expect) then it should give reason for price to move back up. A weaker dollar has also been supporting oil prices as of lately.
Seasonality gets really bullish starting this week and we don't expect this pattern to change this time around. ADX still shows a bullish trend and we have been flirting with the channel for an entire week, all selling pressure has been soaked up and we are in a bullish pennant.
Stay safe everyone and stay tuned for more updates.
Our stop losses are at 48.30. If you understand the risk and agree, pull the trigger.
Final push down in Oil is on the waySummer across the board, making all kinds of fake moves possible. Oil is not an exception, having hard times deciding what to do next. Time to focus on a big picture.
It looks like on Tuesday, August 1st folks were reestablishing their short positions, which were closed at the end of the month, the day before. Hopefully it was a "technical" move and we will continue a bit higher to 200 Daily MA @ 51.5x December 2017 contract.
Overall USOIL appears to be 2-3 days close to start off a final 5th ABC wave of the Expanding Diagonal (5)th of a major C from 2011.
51.2 - 51.5 comes out to be an area of strong confluence, where 200 DMA and trendline sit alongside some harmonics.
In case the price will travel above 51.2 - 51.5, 52.6x will become another potential reversal zone. Where 0.618 retracement of wave 1 to 3, 0.786 retracement of wave 3 and end of wave B of 3 converge.
Stops should be placed above this area, @ 52.6x. Still the set-up will be violated only above $55 handle.
It is pretty common for wave 5 to be truncated following extended 3rd. So my primary target will be $38 per bbl December contract - January 2016 low. More clear targets would be set while the ABC pattern unfolds.
p.s. CAD heavily overbought and diverging.
Trade safe, control your risk.
WTI Crude Oil - USOILI've singled out prior balance areas using Auction Market Theory, obviously they're not exact. I threw up a fib to give me an idea for a new balance area to develop. I'll wait until it's developed but i'll look for short positions as long as it's below #12 prior bal area low. If it hits invalidation area i'll wait until a more defined trend/area develops before deciding anything.
This is the first idea I've ever published so i'm not really sure how much i'll enjoy doing this.
Another bloody August for USOIL?Let's see whether we can catch a significant bottom in USOIL price for 3rd August in a row :)
I am looking for decline through the next 5-7 weeks due to the following brutal rejection at Weekly Pivot R1, which is also Daily EMA100.
Note RSI - although the new high of 47.71 is slightly above previous major high 47.29 on Jul 4, downtrending RSI makes me think buyers are walking away.
Target 1: 42.55
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S1, and closely correlates to last "minor lows" June 2017, December 2016, Sep 2016
Target 2: 39.78
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S2, and closely correlates to last two "major lows" on August 2016 and August 2015
Both areas are possible reversal zones, though S2 looks more likely at this time.
Watching out for:
- OPEC/Russia murmurings during last week of July (I don't believe any further cuts will be announced).
- Further big declines in USD
- Collapse of Venezuela and more Mad Max stories :) www.google.ca
WTI LOOOONG ULTRALONGTERMgreen circle is my interpretation of investors shifting to long in WTI.
watch gold too, both should be rising now.
MAJOR TREND CHANGE
got 3 longs in WTI, as stated in my status on my profile
WTI Monthlygot 3 longs in it from different prices (look at my status on profile).
wti is a BUY , psychologically for the market, it would lose to get again to 3x.xx $, not reckoning anymore with thirties area.
if you can hold, hold it for 20 years around, we'll get prices over 150 $
CL 4h Chart breakdownWe can observe CL is still in that bearish channel but the price has now created what I believe a highly bullish wedge. Price targets marked as per fib retracements. If we do get a break to the downside, please watch 43.50's area as a buy opportunity.
WTI BreakdownStrictly Technical WTI Channel In Play //
STOCH SIGNAL // Bullish start H1/H4 // Oversold conditions
GMACD // Trend/UP Medium M15/M30/H1/D1/
Very strong downtrend for WTI and if breakouts of channel we will look to short Crude Oil but if we get a bounce from this upwards channel we can take a position going long to 48-49. I will update this Idea if I find a valid setup.
Huge momentum behind oilOil hard to oppose here. The downdraft was overdone so the oil price is now compensating upwards looking for fair value, while new news including the first reduction in US production and the first reduction of the US rig count this year is adding coal to the boiler. Bot were announced this week.
Watch for the Chinese Caixin PMI on Sunday 2 July. This will give clear direction for the Asian market. A reading over 50 could turbo charge the upward march.
The banana just gives shape to the tops. Will take special news to take out 49.x
48.3 could also be tough to push through. A thinning of the Ichimoku cloud on the trajectory will encourage bulls to push ahead and create the necessary short covering which has been a big feature of the rise so far.
CRUDE OIL - The Multiday long takes strengthCRUDE OIL - The Multiday long takes strength
Continues to take strenght the multiday long movement (weekly) started on 29/6
The first resistance of this movement is at 45.91, if it will be violated can be start monthly long movement.
CRUDE OIL - CLQ17 - Aug '17
CROC X1 - Support / Resistance - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3=48.05
R2=47.21
R1=45.91
PIVOT=45.34
S1=44.76
Just wanted to share my triangle scalping theory for crude oilThis pattern has brought me great success scalping crude oil.
How to trade it:
Look for an ABCD triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows.
Draw the triangle with extended lines.
Measure the baseline at B and divide it by 2
Add this value to the point of breakout to get a nice padded target to either side
Look out for fakeouts and good luck.
Backtests may occur on the extended lines to the right but moving between them invalidates the triangle and the trade should be closed.
IS CRUDE OIL GOING TO 80+?If this is the bottom, could be the completion of the right shoulder of a multi-year inverted head and shoulder. Hight of pattern takes us to 80+
CRUDE OIL MEDIUM TERM TRADING IDEACL1 in April we expecting volatility to increase considerably and to stop in area 39.50 - 38.50 - there are we set our pending buy orders with reward ratio 1:5 till end of Q2 2017.
