Crude Oil looks bearish for next weekOil moved upwards all week long so it must breathe a little bit. As it was because of speculation, we calculate it will go down to at least to 54.
We set some supports as reference, price may reach down to 50 but strength of this movement should be measured. We are placing long positions on short term and short positions on long term (our LOSSOL move technique)
Let's get some swag next week!
Crude-oil
#Crudeoil Could End Lower Near-TermCrude Oil Brief
Crude oil has been strong of late and has gained nearly 30 percent over the last four months. Much of this has to due with the exporting of crude and products which has dramatically lowered inventory stocks - overall stocks the lowest since March 2015.
However, we are heading into a seasonally weak period for energy products, and inventories could begin to build. Moreover, US production has recovered from both hurricanes with producers producing over 9 m/bbl per day.
Market sentiment on inflation has also aiding in bidding prices up, but we think there will be an inflection in 5- and 10-year breakevens. This could put pressure on crude as higher inflation hopes begin to wane.
Technically, price is beginning to reject a key technical supply zone between $55.33 and $54.09. This has been a point has been contested three prior times going back to 2015, and each failure to break through has caused hefty pullbacks.
TrendFlex Active score is moderately bullish in regards to trend, but price momentum and volatility range is contracting.
Potential downside targets for crude are $51.94 and $49.01.
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Crude Oil Intra-day Correction; More Upside In ViewCrude oil made a perfect drop lower, which we now see it as wave c of a three-wave decline. Ideally this three-wave decline will now come to an end and a new turn up will be seen around the former swing low at 50.35 level and near the Fibonacci ratio of 100.0, where measurement of equality of waves a and c comes in play.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
Oil Likely to Charge Straight AheadPublishing this ahead of the Oil report as there won't be any more good opportunities to go long after it, unless we get a dip and you have fast hands. While many thesis claim that we are still in a bear trend, we believe that we have completed a bear cycle and are now ready to make a bull cycle. If today's inventory report reports a draw (which we expect) then it should give reason for price to move back up. A weaker dollar has also been supporting oil prices as of lately.
Seasonality gets really bullish starting this week and we don't expect this pattern to change this time around. ADX still shows a bullish trend and we have been flirting with the channel for an entire week, all selling pressure has been soaked up and we are in a bullish pennant.
Stay safe everyone and stay tuned for more updates.
Our stop losses are at 48.30. If you understand the risk and agree, pull the trigger.