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Crude-oil

Huge momentum behind oilOil hard to oppose here. The downdraft was overdone so the oil price is now compensating upwards looking for fair value, while new news including the first reduction in US production and the first reduction of the US rig count this year is adding coal to the boiler. Bot were announced this week. Watch for the Chinese Caixin PMI on Sunday 2 July. This will give clear direction for the Asian market. A reading over 50 could turbo charge the upward march. The banana just gives shape to the tops. Will take special news to take out 49.x 48.3 could also be tough to push through. A thinning of the Ichimoku cloud on the trajectory will encourage bulls to push ahead and create the necessary short covering which has been a big feature of the rise so far.
TVC:USOILLong
by TreeDoc
Just wanted to share my triangle scalping theory for crude oilThis pattern has brought me great success scalping crude oil. How to trade it: Look for an ABCD triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows. Draw the triangle with extended lines. Measure the baseline at B and divide it by 2 Add this value to the point of breakout to get a nice padded target to either side Look out for fakeouts and good luck. Backtests may occur on the extended lines to the right but moving between them invalidates the triangle and the trade should be closed.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Sholmes
Crude Oil Plunges 5%Crude Oil has plunged around 5% today following an OPEC meeting where OPEC members and its allies agreed to extend their oil production cut deal for another 9 months. This move was widely expected by traders before the meeting but they were disappointed that deeper cuts were not announced. The current deal has production cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day but investors feel that sticking to this will not be enough to reduce the huge surplus that had built up over three years before the deal was put in place. In addition to this, there has been an increase in outputs by members who are not included in this deal and OPEC announced that no new members would be joining. OPEC President and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said that these cuts would be enough to reach the 5 year average before the end of 2017. He also added that the deal could be extended again during the next meeting in November. Another concern for investors is that no exit strategy has been talked about as of yet. When the targets are met and surpluses have been lowered, how will members exit the deal? How will they make sure that after the deal is completed, a surplus will not start to build again? These are the questions that investors have but no indication or mention of these points was made during the meeting. It also did not help that the Algerian oil minister, Noureddine Boutarfa, was replaced mid way through the meeting as a cabinet reshuffle took place following elections in Algeria. Boutarfa was key in forming the original deal and so this will be a loss for OPEC but traders will not dwell on this for very long. Crude Oil is currently looking to break a trendline on the 4 hour timeframe. If the break is successful, we should see oil move down towards the $47 and $43.50 levels. Oil prices have been trading around the $43 to $55 range for the past few months and if the deal stays in place and is adhered to by all members, we can expect this to continue until September. Many banks and analysts have said that they expect crude oil to reach $70 dollars a barrel by the end of the year but we will reassess the situation and the fundamentals around August to see if this target is still valid.
TVC:USOIL
by priyesh