Crude-oil
Crude Oil Plunges 5%Crude Oil has plunged around 5% today following an OPEC meeting where OPEC members and its allies agreed to extend their oil production cut deal for another 9 months. This move was widely expected by traders before the meeting but they were disappointed that deeper cuts were not announced. The current deal has production cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day but investors feel that sticking to this will not be enough to reduce the huge surplus that had built up over three years before the deal was put in place. In addition to this, there has been an increase in outputs by members who are not included in this deal and OPEC announced that no new members would be joining.
OPEC President and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said that these cuts would be enough to reach the 5 year average before the end of 2017. He also added that the deal could be extended again during the next meeting in November.
Another concern for investors is that no exit strategy has been talked about as of yet. When the targets are met and surpluses have been lowered, how will members exit the deal? How will they make sure that after the deal is completed, a surplus will not start to build again? These are the questions that investors have but no indication or mention of these points was made during the meeting.
It also did not help that the Algerian oil minister, Noureddine Boutarfa, was replaced mid way through the meeting as a cabinet reshuffle took place following elections in Algeria. Boutarfa was key in forming the original deal and so this will be a loss for OPEC but traders will not dwell on this for very long.
Crude Oil is currently looking to break a trendline on the 4 hour timeframe. If the break is successful, we should see oil move down towards the $47 and $43.50 levels. Oil prices have been trading around the $43 to $55 range for the past few months and if the deal stays in place and is adhered to by all members, we can expect this to continue until September. Many banks and analysts have said that they expect crude oil to reach $70 dollars a barrel by the end of the year but we will reassess the situation and the fundamentals around August to see if this target is still valid.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Curde Oil Making A Final Push Into Wave 5Oil is making a sharp rally from 48.01 level and is now approaching the upper corrective channel. Looks like wave 4) is completed and current recovery is part of wave 5). A breach above the upper channel line will indicate more upside to follow. Wave 5) may later continue towards the 138.2 or 161.8 Fibonacci ratio.
And here is a video of Crude oil and some other pairs.
www.youtube.com
Crude Oil: Potential Buy Opportunity at the Median LinePrice has broken above the median line and is now retracing into a corrective structure most likely to test it. If it reaches the median line start looking for a buy setup as there is very good potential that the median line will act as support.
WTI Oil will push lowerthe 4 hour time frame for WTI is showing strong bearish momentum and when also taking in consideration that the price of oil on the daily time frame has broken through a support its highly likely that the 4 hour time frame will also break down further.
My advice:
Sell at current market price:
Tp 45.60 > 43.80
SL 48.20
WTI Crude Oil 4hr upper break outWTI Crude Oil shows a breakout of the upper range on the 4 hour time frame. This can lead to a wave towards 50.30 before retracing a bit back down again. A few days ago I also published an idea on WTI Crude Oil at the Daily time frame which shows 52.50 as longer term target. Short term the 4 hour time frame is now atleast supporting a break of 50 and I am not suprised if it will break already today.
Buy at current market price, take profit 50.20, Stop loss 48.80
BIG SUPPORT LEVEL 48.8X/49.04. First touch of what was gained in March 2017.
Will get a BIG pop before below 48.50.
BIG LONG RIGHT HERE 49.04. (needs to gain 49.11 and it will POP HARD)
Adding at 48.8x. Risking more than usual but it will work. 49.8x the first long target.
Crude Oil with Target $63??? At the moment, the level of $54- 55 plays the role of strong resistance. If the level breaks $ 55, then Crude oil can gather in the $ 63 zone.
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
See EIA report charts at my facebook page :
Elliott Wave Analysis: CADJPY Could Be In For A ReversalAs you might know, we are looking higher on stocks based on Elliott Wave structure after only three waves of decline on E-mini S&P500 from 2400 highs. So more upside on stocks is normally bearish for Japanese yen, in risk-on environment. At the same time we see Oil prices in bullish mode as well which can be supportive for the Canadian dollar. What all that said, CADJPY can be an interesting pair in the coming sessions and days. Not only because of those market correlations, but also because of the wave structure which shows wave C) down to be an ending diagonal; this is a reversal pattern which can already be pointing to the upside if we consider five waves up on 30min chart.
Crude Oil Preparing For BreakoutPlease refer to image.
Crude oil will breakout, just a matter of on the first try or not.
Crude Oil Short With no further cuts announced yet and Iraq increasing production by the end of this year, oil is squeezed in a narrow trendline which it could break once resistance levels are hit.
2 scenarios for oil1. 5th wave in C has started
2. (B) wave in triangle correction ABCDE in 4th wave has started. This means, that 5th wave will be much later, but I think this is not what is exactly happening on oil market.
For me scenario 1 is more preferable.
In any scenario just keep calm and short oil, when it breaks 47.06 support.
P.S. always use stop loss. Always. Yes, ALWAYS!
This is crude oil prediction for educative and following purposeI try to find a patern and for now it is the only one i see. It seem that 60 and 40 is the number to look at . at 40 i will be a agressive buyer. not sur i will short 60. Short term 45 seem safe .
