WTI Crude Oil 4hr upper break outWTI Crude Oil shows a breakout of the upper range on the 4 hour time frame. This can lead to a wave towards 50.30 before retracing a bit back down again. A few days ago I also published an idea on WTI Crude Oil at the Daily time frame which shows 52.50 as longer term target. Short term the 4 hour time frame is now atleast supporting a break of 50 and I am not suprised if it will break already today.
Buy at current market price, take profit 50.20, Stop loss 48.80
Crude-oil
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
See EIA report charts at my facebook page :
Elliott Wave Analysis: CADJPY Could Be In For A ReversalAs you might know, we are looking higher on stocks based on Elliott Wave structure after only three waves of decline on E-mini S&P500 from 2400 highs. So more upside on stocks is normally bearish for Japanese yen, in risk-on environment. At the same time we see Oil prices in bullish mode as well which can be supportive for the Canadian dollar. What all that said, CADJPY can be an interesting pair in the coming sessions and days. Not only because of those market correlations, but also because of the wave structure which shows wave C) down to be an ending diagonal; this is a reversal pattern which can already be pointing to the upside if we consider five waves up on 30min chart.
2 scenarios for oil1. 5th wave in C has started
2. (B) wave in triangle correction ABCDE in 4th wave has started. This means, that 5th wave will be much later, but I think this is not what is exactly happening on oil market.
For me scenario 1 is more preferable.
In any scenario just keep calm and short oil, when it breaks 47.06 support.
P.S. always use stop loss. Always. Yes, ALWAYS!
Bearish Completion of Bullish Bat & Bullish AB-CD Patterns I am short until the point of both harmonic patterns indicate .
Strong resistance at 54.15 , down from here 52.00 is nice support .
In order to complete both bullish patterns, it must be down till 47.00
After that support it will start Bullish Rally
Signs of weakness despite output cutsWTI failed to break new highs despite efforts to cut output from the Saudis. Iran and Russia has yet to fully comply with output cuts meanwhile US oil production gradually increasing week on week on the back of reports suggesting that shale production cost are becoming cheaper.
US Dollar remain strong in an uptrend after breaking out from its trading range, this will probably push oil prices lower.
Crude Oil Long Trade 200 Pips I have been waiting a few weeks for Crude to get to this point now, we have tested the 61.8 fib twice in the last few hours and seems to be a lot of buyers there, we are also hitting its uptrend support from back in December and i believe now we will see a continuation to $55 a barrel.