Crude-oil
Crude Wobble & RunCrude oil has been holding resistance at the supply zone just above $50 following a first wave, the correction moving the market sideways. We expect crude to complete a C wave of this correction and then encounter demand, sending the price upward.
With this in mind, we are short term bearish and medium term bullish. We expect the demand rush after this corrective wave to push the price of oil above its recent highs.
General plan for Oil in 2017I think the most probable scenario for oil in the first half of 2017 is to complete wave C in some motive but choppy fashion. Ending diagonal is a perfect candidate for this move. As it totally reflects the fundamental idea of two battling forces. On one hand we have rhetorics and measures from OPEC plus seasonality in first half of the year pushing crude oil price higher. On the other hand - commercials, hedging their production at this price levels as in 2014 before the plunge. After all it seems that another wave down is inevitable. But I guess wave 5 will not take us far as a truncation often occurs following a particularly strong third wave.
I will explain why I see wave C as an ending diagonal in the next post.
long term oilgood old inverse head and shoulders on the Weekly time frame (long term)
orange lines show intermediate cycle low timing and we are due for a cycle low shortly (forecast date for intermediate cycle low is a forecast based on past timing, it is a Speculative target in the future. do not short this immediately based exclusively on timing of intermediate decline).
i think the move up will be corrective, but regardless its a trade you want to be in.
there are 2 ways to get in this trade once the intermediate cycle is over- either Long Oil (commodities path) or Short USDCAD (forex path)