Crude-oil
Short Trade Crude Oil - 4hr Double Top and 61.8 Retracement. Market Conditions:
Downtrending market. Long bearish move without any real pullbacks before now. Double top + daily spinning top at 61.8 retracement.
Stops and Targets
Stops at 44.99 above the 78.6 retracement.
Target at 37.45 - just shy of the 1.27 extension.
Let's see how this plays out - this is my first "public" idea here at Tradingview and yes, I know we have news this afternoon.
Remember it is just my personal view.
Crude Oil Bearish Trade Setup 4th wave rebound, potential short target 5th wave at 61.8% retracement or 4.50 level
Crude oil big drop comingThis is the top because the final push provided liquidity for the large institutions above an obvious resistance level. They turned the sellers at resistance into buyers on that final leg up. I was selling at that level too, but got stopped out before that big push up. They quickly dropped prices back below that resistance level so those same sellers will have to chase it back down because they were right in the first place. I know because I experience this and also shorted below the pit close level. I think price will drop back down to that red level and bounce back up to form the right shoulder of a large H&S pattern. Price will most likely make new lows as the big players will keep pushing.
This little rally was just a stop hunt for the guys who shorted on a monthly break below last month's low.
My long term target is $20 and expect to reach that level by the end of this year.
Crude oil analysis and LevelsToday should have been an easy day to go long at the Inventory level, but they whipsawed me out a few times so I gave up just before the big move to my target. The target that I marked up was from my MT4 Oil chart which looks different from this oil chart. The Mt4 oil target was hit, but this target was not so I recalculated where the target would be using this chart and it was also hit, but it was at a lower level than the MT4 chart.
I will look for a W pattern at one of my levels tomorrow to go long and this time I will use a larger stop so I won't get knocked out so easily. We had 2 levels of rise and am expecting at least one more on Short squeeze Fridays. It is a lot easier to be an analysts than a day trader as I had perfect levels but still ended up with a lose today when this is one of the safest longs to take. I will update a more precise target tonight