Crude-oil
Crude oil analysis and LevelsToday should have been an easy day to go long at the Inventory level, but they whipsawed me out a few times so I gave up just before the big move to my target. The target that I marked up was from my MT4 Oil chart which looks different from this oil chart. The Mt4 oil target was hit, but this target was not so I recalculated where the target would be using this chart and it was also hit, but it was at a lower level than the MT4 chart.
I will look for a W pattern at one of my levels tomorrow to go long and this time I will use a larger stop so I won't get knocked out so easily. We had 2 levels of rise and am expecting at least one more on Short squeeze Fridays. It is a lot easier to be an analysts than a day trader as I had perfect levels but still ended up with a lose today when this is one of the safest longs to take. I will update a more precise target tonight
Crude Oil ForecastToday was a tricky day during inventory news. I was short going into the news with profit, and thought that the news would blast through the 50% fib level. Stop placement was too far away and took a big hit. Its a lot easier to be an analyst than be a trader during the live markets. As you can see, oil traders like using the magic number 3 at key levels. My levels are pretty accurate, but deciding what to do during live markets at those levels is another thing. Two scenarios for tomorrow with 2 possible targets. Price may drop to my target and bounce higher towards the upper target or price may drop down to the lows again and continue the downtrend. Have to wait for the 30min to close to decide what to do at these target levels. One of my targets are reached about 80% of the time. It looks like the break below the previous months low may have been a trap and we could see higher prices by friday for a close above the weekly support / resistance level
Possible pullback on USOILThe last candle still has some time to close, but based on what is now, we can see an indecision forming on area of support. USOIL dropped 3.5% today, which is a strong move, so we may look here for some short-term long positions.
Crude oil (WTI) Short to Medium Term Analysis
The WTI Crude touched a Low of $40.55 last week after the release of inventory data (Last Wednesday) showing over Supply.
The recent release of Chinese PMI data showing signs of Chinese economy slowing down further, which puts additional pressure on Oil going forward.
Read More Here :
Buyers Buy $41.10-$41.30 for targets of $44-$45 and a Stop below $40.40.
Sellers Wait for the Bounce to complete and Short around $46 levels and stops around $48 targeting $35.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone because i have something for everyone ;) But i am more biased towards the short side.
Happy Trading People
Cheers!!
FX:USOIL
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Quick Take Update: USOil - Still At Critical Levels3 days ago, I posted an update on USOil where I had just closed my trade on it and pocketed a quick +146 pips on a short term trade. I closed that trade as it had reached my target at some critical levels which I said could provide some good support for a retrace. Well, since that post 3 days ago, prices for oil have just hung around that critical level support zone moving even lower as I predicted oil would do.
It is currently sitting right at the 2.618 extension of that COMPLETED crab in the crab's PRZ. What I'm looking for now is for it to finish off this wave (v) of what I see as just the wave A of a larger correction. Any retrace bounce we get from here should be the wave B of that larger correction. But first, we need to see price action tell us that this wave (v) and wave A are done. I'm looking for a quick spike below this 2.618 where it is sitting now and for prices to quickly move back up off that spike. That would give me a setup to go LONG. But must wait.....
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USOIL : Daily View. Potential Target $36Crown patterns emerges very evidently. Conventional target $36 which is 0.618 fib retracement.
Any news can give breakout from the pattern and rally towards $54-$55
Be careful
Long term trade
Short Entry Price : 44.30 (Candle Close below)
SL : $ 46.65
TG1 : $43.01
TG2 : $38.85
TG3 : $36.03
Pls refer to all Resistance line (Maroon)
PS. Generally I dont believe in support and resistance theory. Those are heaven for brokers.
Happy Trading
USOIL - Crude bending down after hit $50 ceilingSuppliers may enter the market to bring prices down.
Happy trading!
$WTI - Refiner Outages Approaching, P Action around $42.5 KeyUsing $42.50 as a support level, a bounce off that level would be considered bullish, but if prices fail to hold, a return to $37.50 seems probable. This implies a negative 200 day SMA cross, which suffice it to say, would be a return to the bearish int term trend. This, in concert with a low energy demand season approaching and several refiner outages expected in coming months, which would imply further inventory builds to already record levels.
Crude oil technical play for week 30 July 25, 2016-July 31, 2016Shorting Crude oil
Earlier in the month we missed two critical demand areas where price could have turned back up. But due to low demand and price kept falling significantly. The demand areas are shown by the green boxes where price failed and demand dropped. We are likely to descend below the red support line area where price tried to stabilize. But friday we eventually broke below that level.
So for now only support we are left with is at 41.56. Any time the price touches the purple line trend line up top sell till 41.56.
If the price breaks the trend line up top than buy till demand area 1 and 2.
Long Crude OILPositive Divergence + oversold, go long at strong support 43.38 (Entry) with SL (42.6) and Profit call (45.6)
Oil may not be out of the woods yet?There is still the potential for oil to slip to test or drop below the recent lows. After the big drop we had a stutter step and a retracement followed by another big drop. If price disrespects the 4 hr trend line look for a retracement. It is not if, but when and how far. While oil futures are painting a rosy picture price may be being slightly manipulated.
- Iran is back on track and will be pumping out record volume.
- Reserves are at all time records or near enough.
-We are still not using as much as we are producing.
As the higher cost extraction oil will be shut in we will get to a balance. Then we can see prices rise as reserves fall and equilibrium is restored.
On the other hand as a commodity that can be manipulated there is always the chance that the puppet masters can keep the price inflated.
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ST Breakout or LT ContinuationConfirmed breakout on daily and intraday charts, but seems like a continuation on weekly and monthly charts, could turn out to be a LT head & shoulder though
only thing keeping me from shorting this is EIA in 5 minutes ;)Rising wedge coming up on upper tl big wedge and second warning line old downsloper. I would short but EIA is coming in 5
They broke the uptrend but are reluctant to sell it further.Crude did not roll over and die after breaking the uptrend. A BIG emotional candle after a disappointing eia report broke the trendline dating back to january, but what puzzles me is why it did not break down further after the retest of that line from the back.
Maybe they are anticipating the BIG DRAW eia report on wednesday and therefore hesitant? Or is this just a corrective structure (the overlapping price action would fit that) and are we coiling for a bigger move up?
As always, price will tell us.
I have marked out some possible scenarios.
