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Crude-oil

Understanding the Ripple Effects of U.S. Inventory Data on WTIThe American Petroleum Institute's latest report indicates a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories – a larger-than-expected decrease of 5.2 million barrels. But what does this mean for the market? This drop in inventories typically signals a tightening supply, which, in theory, should push oil prices up. However, the data also showed an increase in gasoline and distillates inventories, suggesting a contrasting scenario of weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer. This weakened demand is further evidenced by the ongoing impact of a severe winter storm, restricting travel and, consequently, fuel usage. Technical analysis adds another layer to this narrative. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following momentum indicator, shows sell signs, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral. For market watchers, these indicators suggest potential shifts, with bears possibly entering at a point around $71.88 a barrel, pushing prices down to support levels of $69.42. Conversely, should the trend reverse, resistance might be met near $74.34 a barrel. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
Crude oil - $200 per barrelWe've all seen how oil reacted to the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I am sure that this conflict will not settle down quickly and will only increase. The conflict will involve other players in the region - Emen is proof of this fact. How will oil react to this? The suspension of supplies and other problems with oil supplies will provoke demand for oil and the price will go higher and in the next few years will renew historical highs up to $200 per barrel. I think this was calculated by the coalition of aggressor countries before the war started. about TA We see a strong horizontal level where there is a lot of liquidity (concentration of stop losses) which will be collected up to the level of the largest horizontal volumes from below. And only after that, we will see a global reversal, which is probably the end of the year - December On the chart, I have shown levels from which I will try to take longs. I hope there will be PEACE in the world. Our world looks very humongous in terms of cosmic civilization sending tons of bombs to kill each other. Best regards EXCAVO
FX:UKOILSPOT
by EXCAVO
5
Crude oil wants to make money to read this article!The recent rise and fall of crude oil, as a whole is a big shock, although it is an upward trend, but not so clear, yesterday's daily line is very unexpected unexpectedly closed the negative line, the rise is not coherent, such a market we understand as shock, today's thinking of shock more treatment, today's crude oil attention yesterday back to the low point is the bottom of the upward trend of 1 hour, Strong support is near 73.10, these two positions are the positions of bull sniping, and the positions of pressure are 75.50 and 76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by the_Hand_of_God
2
WTI OIL: 1d Death Cross calls for selling but MA50 has to hold.WTI will complete a Death Cross pattern on the 1d time frame. This will be its second since September 02 2022. That pattern initiated a strong decline which was a bearish leg inside a Channel Down pattern. Oil is again trading inside a Channel Down since Sep 28 2023 and the Death Cross can be the sell call for the final leg to the 63.70 Support. We expect at least 65.00 but the 1d MA50 has to hold. On a different occassion, i.e. a candle closing over the 1d MA50, look for a buy to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 84.50. That will be almost a +25% rise, which we've seen 4 times since the last 1d Death Cross. Follow, Like, Comment below!
TVC:USOIL
by YahooSignals
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOK AND POSSIBLE STRATEGIESWith recent market dynamics, the oil trading landscape has witnessed significant shifts, presenting traders with lucrative opportunities. Here are actionable strategies tailored to capitalize on these developments. 1. Fed's Dovish Stance and Demand Surge: The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook coupled with the International Energy Agency's upgraded oil demand forecast signals a potential uptick in oil consumption. This suggests a bullish trend for oil prices. Traders could consider entering long positions or call options in anticipation of a sustained price increase due to heightened demand projections. 2. OPEC's Tightening Supply Scenario: OPEC's report highlighting a potential deficit in the oil market, especially if OPEC+ production cuts persist, indicates a tightening supply situation. Traders may benefit from this by leveraging the anticipated supply shortage. Long-term positions or bullish spreads might be favorable strategies to capitalize on the potential price rally resulting from constrained supply. 3. Declining U.S. Oil Inventories and Weakening Dollar: The Energy Information Administration's data revealing a substantial drop in U.S. oil inventories, alongside the weakened dollar, strengthens the bullish sentiment. Considering the reduced supply and increased affordability of oil due to the dollar's decline, traders could explore long positions or bullish futures contracts to align with the rising prices. 4. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly recent attacks on vessels, add to the uncertainty surrounding oil supply. Traders might view this as an opportunity for short-term gains through cautious but strategic investments, keeping an eye on potential supply disruptions that could trigger price spikes. In conclusion, recent market developments indicate a favorable landscape for bullish trading in the oil market. Traders can consider adopting long positions, call options, or bullish spreads to capitalize on the projected increase in demand, tightening supply, weakened dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, it's crucial to stay informed and adaptable to swiftly respond to evolving market conditions for optimal trading outcomes. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices saw a decline due to skepticism about OPEC+'s output cuts and concerns over growing supply overshadowing potential disruptions in the Middle East. U.S. crude settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel, and Brent dropped 1.1% to $78.03 a barrel. Despite announcements of output cuts, the lack of confidence in compliance and doubts about measurement methods have cast shadows on the effectiveness of these measures. Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have revived concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, amplifying market anxieties. Additionally, fears of decreased demand and weak global manufacturing activity in November added pressure on prices. Technical indicators signaled bearish sentiment, indicating possible support levels at $66.78 and a potential rebound around $74.75. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
BUY USOIL !!! TIME TO RETRACE hello traders as i can see its a great entry point for oil to caught some easy pips oil had created a good support zone on last daily low in shorter TF its seems more upside to test broken support zone Saudi and Russian are stick on their cut policy and war is also creating more demands trade with ur on risk its just and trade idea if ur like our prediction we appreciate ur support it help our trader community stay tuned for more updates
TVC:USOILLong
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
Crude Oil Found The Support?Crude oil is trading lower, currently showing blue wave C in late stages of a corrective wave B pattern. We can also see now five subwaves down within C from 88/89 zone, where final subwave (5) of C can be now coming to an end with a huge volume increase. We can actually already see a sharp bounce from the support that can be signal for a minimum three-wave recovery back to 80 area. If we get a five-wave impulsive recovery back above channel resistance line and 80.00 level, that's when we may call a bottom for crude.
NYMEX:CLF2024Long
by ew-forecast
WTI POSSIBLE RALLYOil prices rebounded after experiencing losses last week, primarily due to expectations of a tight supply situation for the rest of the year. This rebound was driven by key factors, including the commitment of major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to maintaining production cuts until the end of the year. The decrease in the U.S. oil rig count also played a role, as it indicated a lack of response from U.S. producers to the current price environment, giving confidence to Saudi Arabia to continue withholding supply from the market. Additionally, concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East related to the Israel-Hamas conflict subsided, contributing to the market's rebound. The oil market is now closely focused on economic data from China, particularly trade and inflation figures, to gauge commodity demand in the country. While China's oil imports and fuel demand have remained robust, rising stockpiles could lead to a drop in oil imports in the coming months, especially if economic conditions deteriorate. Meanwhile, the overall health of the U.S. economy, another major consumer of oil, remains a factor influencing oil demand, with expectations of weakening demand during the winter season. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar is currently providing some support to oil prices, but it may also reflect concerns about a cooling U.S. economy, which could impact oil consumption. If the trend continues the price might reach levels of 90.51, in the opposite scenario the price might drop to 80.49. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentimentWe look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below
NYMEX:TTF1!Long
by Pepperstone
5
Crude Oil Super Bullish Targeting 121 and 149 US $Crude Oil Super Bullish Targeting 121 and 149 US $ I n my previouse Oil Trading Idea I mentioned the main factors why we have reahed the bottom. I opened the first trades on May the 23rd(See signals above) but gave my stops more rooms, below the 15 Months Support, and as they ´ve been confirme I added more aditional Positions on June 23rd, Last week I added agressively the 3d tranche of my Positions as the market broke 3 very important resistances in raw without any significant pullbacks. To take these trades needs high levels of patience, weekly news should and can be ignored. On the same time I closed all my short positions which I continiousely opened from 119 downwards. My Trading indicators confirmed these levely very nicely, and that is the powerfull answer to all news and news makers, and day traders who lost 90% of their capitals, an following news blindly, or vasting their times and assets in day traing: TREND ALWAYS WINS! ALWAY! NEVER DOUBT ABOUT IT! Bullish sentiment is building in oil markets as U.S. inventory levels continue to drop while OPEC+ production and export cuts are expected to be extended. Continuous US stock draws equivalent to a 1 million b/d decline over the past five weeks have led to an unusually tight oil market in the United States, adding upward pressure to oil prices despite economic woes. Widespread expectations of OPEC+ extending production and export cuts as well as recovering Chinese manufacturing activity have added to the bullish sentiment, with ICE Brent surpassing $87 per barrel.  Chevron Workers Reject Company Offer, Start Striking Next Week. Workers at Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) Australian Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants have rejected the company’s pay and conditions offer, moving full steam ahead with planned work stoppages starting from September 7.  Russia Flags OPEC+ Coordination on Track. Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak announced that OPEC+ members have agreed on the main parameters of production over the upcoming months but would only announce it next week, indicating Riyadh’s and Moscow’s cuts are to continue.  International Banks Team Up in Glencore Battle. Glencore’s (LON:GLEN) stock performance has been anemic recently as a whopping 197 claimants took the trading giant to London courts over “numerous misleading statements” and repeated cases on unlawful conduct, with several African bribery cases. Oil Majors Lament on US Wind Power Prices. European oil majors Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) and BP (NYSE:BP) are seeking a 54% increase in the purchase agreement prices of three planned US wind farms, according to a NY regulatory filing, with the initial strike prices set at $108-118 per MWh.    Argentina Ramps Up Shale Gas Offtake. The home of Argentina’s shale gas play Vaca Muerta, the province of Neuquen, posted record high gas injection levels this month, topping 100 Mcf per day, as a new gas pipeline connecting the fields to the capital Buenos Aires was inaugurated recently.  Higher Interest Rates Prompt LNG Plants to Hike Fees. A string of US LNG developers, most notably NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT) with its Rio Grande LNG project, adjusted term deals signed earlier and increased liquefaction fees to reflect rising interest rates and higher construction costs.  Gabon Coups Leaves Regional Trade on Tenterhooks. At least 30 commercial vessels, of which at least 6 tankers, anchored in Gabon’s territorial waters after the military seized power in the African country from long-time president Ali Bongo, with Libreville halting port operations.  Trans Mountain Pipeline Faces New Delays. Trans Mountain Corp, the operator of the eponymous pipeline, expressed its fears that its Q1 2024 commissioning might be delayed as the Canadian government is still yet to approve a route deviation on a 0.8-mile section, opposed by a First Nation.  First Gulf Coast Wind Auction Triggers Weak Interest. The first-ever offshore wind auction in the US Gulf Coast ended with a single $5.6 million bid for 102,480 acres off Louisiana coming from German renewable developer RWE (ETR:RWE), the lowest winning bid for a federal wind lease.   Chevron Evacuates Its Gulf Coast Platforms. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) evacuated its staff from three oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico – Blind Faith, Petronius and the soon-to-be-decommissioned Genesis – ahead of Hurricane Idalia, shutting in some 125,000 b/d of production capacity. Gazprom Hides Production Figures as Sales Drop. Russia’s leading gas producer Gazprom (MX:GAZP) stopped reporting export figures as it published financial results for the first half of 2023, posting $3.1 billion in net profit, a mere quarter of its $12 billion EBITDA for the same period.  Japan Extends Oil Subsidies Until End-2023. Japan’s Trade and Industry Ministry (METI) extended oil product subsidies until the end of December 2023 as retail gasoline prices soared to the highest readings ever this week, reaching $200 per barrel, boosted by higher oil prices and a weaker yen.  Lithium Prices Go into a Tailspin. Having already halved since January, Chinese lithium prices have dropped a further 10% in August as lithium hydroxide EXW China quotes fell to $33,500 per metric tonne, below those of lithium carbonate, amid poor demand for high-nickel cathodes.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by DaveBrascoFX
5
Crude oil I've been watching oil closely for the last two months. I would like to say that oil is a trending instrument, we started the decline from 95$ per barrel and fell quite rapidly until the conflict in the Middle East. all news resources said that oil rose in price on the background of this news. Technically, I was waiting for this upward correction. But if the war will really be global, the price of oil should be cheap to strengthen the US and the dollar, and these goals began to be fulfilled. In what way? I have written about this many times, that what we trade is futures oil, in the financial market, and the main players in futures oil are City Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase read more Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:UKOIL
by EXCAVO
2
Canadian Dollar strength driven by Oil pricesAs crude oil prices climb due to the geopolitical conflict, has resulted in the Canadian Dollar gaining strength. With the prices testing the 1.36 price level, the idea was a bounce above the 23.60% fib retracement level could see a continuation to the upside. However, with the DXY weakening, look for the USDCAD to break below the longer term fib retracement level of 61.8% to signal a continuation of the recent downtrend, with the next major support level at 1.34
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Crude trader - trying to price certainty in conflict The high on our Brent crude price has been $89.68 – hit at midday – but while our clients are long of crude (65% of open interest is held long), we’re seeing better sellers in the broader market, as we roll towards EU trade. The early rally felt reasonably orderly, but a lot of questions were being asked and without many immediate answers to obtain the certainty we crave as market participants - so naturally in this backdrop we get outsized moves, as a lack of clarity causes dispersions in price. When it comes to knowledge most market participants are now military experts and have quite poor knowledge of Middle East relations – again this makes it harder to price risk. Our US crude price sits up 3.8%, off the earlier highs of $87.45 and holds the 50-day MA – should EU/UK traders come in and buy the slight intraday dips then $89.03 is the level to watch topside for supply. It could go either way, but on balance I favour selling into intraday rallies. Today been some reversal after the recent drawdown in crude into $82 – positioning played a big part in that run, but we had seen signs that the Saudis may look at increasing production at year-end. We had even seen positive steps at a geopolitical level; brokered by the US, an agreement that Saudi would recognize Israel and as MBS said, forge “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War”. Instead of this positive backdrop, we have seen a 180-degree turn with Hamas's attack on Israel, with the market now questioning if we could see engagement with Hezbollah and Lebanon. With President Biden standing firm with Israel, the view is Iran’s oil exports which have been growing will be cut. If we look at Crude ‘time spreads’ – that is, front-month crude futures – June 2024 futures - we see this +$0.97, so modestly higher – if we really felt like Saudi production was going to get impacted by the unfolding situation then this would higher still. If in doubt, switch gears and head to Nat Gas which is building on the recent breakout and looks like it may start to bull trend.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
Equalized Natural Gas and Crude Oil Over DecadesThe goal of this chart is to attempt to show the impact of energy costs in the current economy. We use equal amounts of natural gas and crude oil according to economic websites, so a chart that shows the year-over-year % change of energy costs would be useful to look at so we aren't confused by headlines. Everyone seems to be looking at crude oil as the main driver of inflation, but at the same time refusing to see that natural gas has fallen quite dramatically over the same time window. What I have done with this chart is to plot the ratio of the price of crude oil to natural gas using the 2nd month contract because of the negative price of crude oil in 2020. The current ratio is around 26, so I then used the 26 ratio to plot the top chart. I multiplied NatGas by 26 and added it to Crude Oil to get a "total energy cost" to the economy. I then did a 1 year rate of change to show the oscillations of "bearish headwinds" of inflation and "bullish headwinds" of deflation. Obviously, lower energy prices are supportive of the economy and higher energy prices are inflationary and imply producers and sellers will raise prices, putting pressure on the Fed to raise rates to cool off the economy. Currently, we have a -31.59% YOY% change for the total cost of energy and as recently as May we were at -61%. Granted, energy is not the entire economy. Energy is only 6% of the economy so it is just a small part but it feeds into everyone's costs. Next I will work on some ways to create specific market buy and sell signals to see if we can make a permanent indicator for this idea. Wishing you all well. Tim West 9:06AM EST, Wednesday October 4, 2023
NYMEX:NG2!
by timwest
3